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 d-usa wrote:
There will be a change in leader, but not in leadership style. This is less about reform, and more about succession.

The new leader will be cut from the same cloth, so I doubt the military will set a normal of handing over old tyrants to the mob. This is not the coming of free democracy to this country.

The reasons behind this Coup was Mugabe succession choice, he chose his wife over his friends (and / or Brother in Arms)... he became too arrogant to recall a promise of heart among his 'revolutionary' peers.
Robert Mugabe's choice is also a blatant betrayal to the very tenant of Republicanism (which Mugabe himself claimed Zimbabwe is). Leadership transition within family (including spouse) is indeed a main idea of Monarchy. (and most modern despotism distases this model of successions).

No offence Lone Cat, but what are you on about? Mugabe isn't a republican, he's a dedicated Stalinist. For most people that would be an exaggeration, but Bob actually follows Stalin's interpretation of Marx's playbook. And there's no 'promise of heart' on Bob's part, Grace just overstepped herself.

EDIT:- Just watched Bob's speech. Seems like the Croc is happy to leave him in as a puppet and just pass him the paperwork to sign. Gracie and co. are going to be having a fun time down the chookie though.

The end seems to be coming for Mugabe clans power.

Bob been kicked out the party. So that means he lost the party throne and still got the presidential role. Until they impeach him which might happen on Tuesday if he decided not to resaign..

If Mugabe does not resign then Grace and Co may be in trouble? Ie plea dealing?

Offer him a deal, let them get off if he resigns cleanly and not causes political trouble.?

Hmm things seem like they could end soon?
Mugabe position is going to hard to maintain when the army are hinting to remove blue house security. Not firing on citizens.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-africa-42046911

Bob staying on until Zanu party congress.

Who is actually running this coup?

Mugabe and Grace deserve to be shot and strung up like the Ceaucescus were, but it is to the credit of Zimbabwe that they have not been.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
Mugabe and Grace deserve to be shot and strung up like the Ceaucescus were, but it is to the credit of Zimbabwe that they have not been.

Wait...what?? I thought you oppose the death penalty?

 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:

 Kilkrazy wrote:
Mugabe and Grace deserve to be shot and strung up like the Ceaucescus were, but it is to the credit of Zimbabwe that they have not been.

Wait...what?? I thought you oppose the death penalty?

No. For coup to work. To keep the AU out the system to putting his people back in power all this stuff has to be done by the book.

All legal.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
Mugabe and Grace deserve to be shot and strung up like the Ceaucescus were, but it is to the credit of Zimbabwe that they have not been.

The army would string them both up tomorrow if it suited their purposes. They're very deliberately trying to play a game here for the international observers. It's working too, I was watching the BBC coverage, and the best they could get was a few interviews with random blokes in Zim who aren't relevant enough to be described as two bit players, and some pundit in South Africa. They've literally got no-one on the ground, and no-one in their office even knows who to talk to in Zimbabwe to try and find out what's going on.Foreign correspondent cuts have been harsh for the BBC, it would seem. Combine it with years of Bob trying to block every foreign journalist from getting into the country North Korea style, and Chiwenga looks to have a reasonably easy time of it.

Just seen the end of speech etx on BBC.

He not resigned but from the state he seemed to be in, he was losing place. Pages. He did not seem the powerful and such leader.
.he was almost rambling. Off track, losing track.. It was not a strong speech.

With impeachment coming. Did this live showing how frail he seemed to be. A way of weakening his hold showing he not the same man who they feared.?

Nah, he's been like that for years. It's a bit like Stalin in his final days. They might be ill, falling asleep in middle of speeches, and slightly off their rocker, but nobody dares to cross them. The cult of personality and their history of promptly dispatching anything who even thinks of crossing them (and many who don't) stops anything like that. The decrepit leader plays the factions off against each other, and they all content themselves with biding their time and vying to position themselves to be the successor when he finally corks it.

In this case, Gracie made her move too prematurely, and she forced Mnangagwa's hand. She even tried to go after the Army, which was a dicey proposition given that she failed to lay hands on Mnangagwa. I think she made a bit of an 'all or nothing' play, and assumed that being Bob's wife would protect her when all is said and done. Which it probably will to a large extent, unlike many of her erstwhile allies, she won't be having electrodes attached to her genitalia any time soon.

Given that Bob hasn't been removed, it's quite apparent that Mnangagwa is now content to rest as the only power base in the country and the heir apparent. Bob is very old, and his health has never been great. He won't last more than another three or four years tops I would suspect. Why go to the effort of pushing him to resign when you can use him as a figurehead, wield the power anyway, and just wait a few years for the nominal title? Looks good to the outsiders, after all. If he gets impeached internally, then sure, that gets you out of the firing line for having a 'coup', if not, just wait a few years. No skin off his nose either way.

Amusingly, my parents were recounting a tale earlier today of one of my younger school sports days (long forgotten by myself) where they had a mothers race. Grace Mugabe was there to support her son, and naturally, nobody dared to outrace her! My own mum, who was on the sidelines, said all the other ladies practically ran backwards, they were trying so hard to make sure she came in first.

It's sad that such scum could hold that kind of power over people.

 Future War Cultist wrote:
It's sad that such scum could hold that kind of power over people.

I could point to probably a hundred countries in the world where this is the case.

Zimbabwe is far from unique, its simply the current topic of interest in the 24 hour news cycle.

The only difference between western democracy and African dictatorships is at least in the west we get to pick which brand of scum we want.

 Ketara wrote:
Nah, he's been like that for years. It's a bit like Stalin in his final days. They might be ill, falling asleep in middle of speeches, and slightly off their rocker, but nobody dares to cross them. The cult of personality and their history of promptly dispatching anything who even thinks of crossing them (and many who don't) stops anything like that. The decrepit leader plays the factions off against each other, and they all content themselves with biding their time and vying to position themselves to be the successor when he finally corks it.

Their final weakness actually serves to protect them in the end - who's going to make a move and spend their own power knocking off dear old leader when everyone expects he'll be dead soon?

Anyhow, thanks for your posts in this thread, Ketara, they've been really interesting.

 Future War Cultist wrote:
It's sad that such scum could hold that kind of power over people.

Aye, and the saddest part is that isn't even hard to do. Most people simply don't care as long as they get paid enough. Pay the right people and you can do everything you want.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 sebster wrote:

 Ketara wrote:
Nah, he's been like that for years. It's a bit like Stalin in his final days. They might be ill, falling asleep in middle of speeches, and slightly off their rocker, but nobody dares to cross them. The cult of personality and their history of promptly dispatching anything who even thinks of crossing them (and many who don't) stops anything like that. The decrepit leader plays the factions off against each other, and they all content themselves with biding their time and vying to position themselves to be the successor when he finally corks it.

Anyhow, thanks for your posts in this thread, Ketara, they've been really interesting.

Agreed. Much more informative than most of the stuff you read in the media.

 jhe90 wrote:
So. Zimbabwe has a potential coup.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/military-vehicles-heading-towards-zimbabwe-capital-amid-political-purge-11126302

APC block roads. Tanks on way to capital.
Military deployed but not saying why, roads blocked or watched.

Mugabe fired a senior minister recently.
Seems he had freinds.




Automatically Appended Next Post:
Seems Mugabe was sidelining a veteran member of his revolution, and making way for his wife to succeed him and leader.

General is a veteran of revolutionary era, they have been replaced by younger loyalists to Mugabe in youth wing.

So old guard vs new?
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/military-vehicles-heading-towards-zimbabwe-capital-amid-political-purge-11126302

I'm surprised that ol' Mugabe was able to hold onto power as long as he has, since his chief (and most competent) henchman, Hitler Hunzvi, croaked back in '01.

It's high time that somebody rolled in and kicked him out, since I suspect that his cronies aren't getting the kickbacks they once were, with Zimbabwe's economy deep in the septic tank.

It has been interesting watching this unfold.

The 'coup' has been delicately arranged and undertaken so as not to offend the regional blocs sensibilities (They don't want to see bloody power struggles on the continent as in the past).

Bob Mugabe probably sees the deference he has been afforded as weakness. Unable to see the long game.

A crook of Mugabes stripe is being raised to power whilst the world is shown a new era unfolding. I wonder how many people and groups celebrating Bobs demise will be visited by security forces over the coming months.

 oldravenman3025 wrote:

I'm surprised that ol' Mugabe was able to hold onto power as long as he has, since his chief (and most competent) henchman, Hitler Hunzvi, croaked back in '01.

It's high time that somebody rolled in and kicked him out, since I suspect that his cronies aren't getting the kickbacks they once were, with Zimbabwe's economy deep in the septic tank.

Hunzvi? I don't think I've ever heard him described as Mugabe's chief henchman, or competent before. The fake war vet (he never got near a gun) who was good at scraping together groups of thugs and dumb enough he got himself nailed for corruption in a time when everyone was corrupt.

sebster wrote:Their final weakness actually serves to protect them in the end - who's going to make a move and spend their own power knocking off dear old leader when everyone expects he'll be dead soon?

Anyhow, thanks for your posts in this thread, Ketara, they've been really interesting.

The funny thing is that they've been saying 'He'll be dead soon' for fifteen years. The old bastard has remarkable stamina, I'll give him that.

And no problem, it's not often I get to talk about Zimbo in this day and age.


I've heard rumour (take with salt) flying around that Joyce Mujuru might be brought back into the fold to an extent. She was the third rival for successor who got knocked off her perch by Gracie a few years back. I'd speculate that they hope to control the opposition through her, and cut Tsvangirai out (again).

Amusingly, my parents were recounting a tale earlier today of one of my younger school sports days (long forgotten by myself) where they had a mothers race. Grace Mugabe was there to support her son, and naturally, nobody dared to outrace her! My own mum, who was on the sidelines, said all the other ladies practically ran backwards, they were trying so hard to make sure she came in first.

There's been plenty of people talking about how The Death of Stalin is strangely apt for today's political climate, but I think they were talking about events in the USA, UK and Europe.

Uncle bob is gone.resigned. Imidiate effect. No known info on status or what Grace is facing or what she gonna get aka immunity or general ignorance of she stays out Zanu PF forever.

The king is dead.
Long live the king.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5102909/The-Crocodile-tells-Mugabe-now.html

Zanu PF are still in power, through rigged elections and threats. Mnangagwa probably just wanted his own time as dictator, so I am not holding my breath for meaningful change.

 Orlanth wrote:
Zanu PF are still in power, through rigged elections and threats. Mnangagwa probably just wanted his own time as dictator, so I am not holding my breath for meaningful change.

Aye it's just a new head on same body.

Same party in power, though it may open the door to reform, even if only economic. We'll see if they go the route China did, that would be the logical path given their extensive ties. Hopefully they dont keep making the same mistakes of the last several decades. I guess we shall see.

The best news out of this situation is that it was the closest thing to a "peaceful transition of power" they could have hoped for, and it doesn't look like the transition will be carried out on the backs of dead civilians.

 d-usa wrote:
The best news out of this situation is that it was the closest thing to a "peaceful transition of power" they could have hoped for, and it doesn't look like the transition will be carried out on the backs of dead civilians.

A fair point from the humanitarian point of view, but not many good Wargames are based around a peaceful transition of power :-p

The hilarious thing is that Bob resigned through a letter. AKA, they wrote it for him and then locked him in a room somewhere. I could be being overly pessmistic here, but seriously? A letter? Something is dodgy there.

Meanwhile, Moyo has swapped sides again.

I still see this as a really good event, yes same party, yes same sort of person etc, but at least it isn't Grace Mugabe in control (although some may say she already was behind the scenes). What is good, is that this so far has been a peaceful and well liked transition to change. If Robert died and Grace didn't get power, there would most likely have been a bigger power battle that could have lead to some nasty violence and a more forceful military intervention of a deteriorating situation.

Also:

 Ketara wrote:
The hilarious thing is that Bob resigned through a letter. AKA, they wrote it for him and then locked him in a room somewhere. I could be being overly pessmistic here, but seriously? A letter? Something is dodgy there.

Meanwhile, Moyo has swapped sides again.

Mugabe is deluded enough it might have been easier to sign the resignation document for him, replace him and then expect reality to catch up later. If he remains under house arrest until it is all done nobody needs to be the wiser and nobody will care so long as he is gone..