Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you: No adverts like this in the forums anymore. Times and dates in your local timezone. Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance. Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely. Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net. If you are already a member then feel free to login now.

Makumba wrote:
Why doesn't GW just make all the FLGS go out of buissness. Then they could take over the market and their stores wouldn't run non GW stuff.

I live in metro Atlanta. The 9th largest metro area in the US. There is one, ONE GW store in the metro area. There are 9+ FLGS in area which carry GW products AND probably another 6+ FLGS which do not carry GW product for various reasons. If GW can't provide more than 1 store with the hours more than the below, then they have no prayer of taking on the FLGS.

Hours:
Monday Closed
Tuesday Closed
Wednesday 2:00 – 8:00 pm
Thursday 2:00 – 8:00 pm
Friday 12:00 – 8:00 pm
Saturday 12:00 – 9:00 pm
Sunday 12:00 – 6:00 pm

clively wrote:
Do I think GW is "going under"? No. At least one poster compared them to Lehman brothers and Enron which is something you simply can't do. Heck, you can't even compare those two companies together as the machinations that brought them down were radically different..

I would tend to agree with this as I don't think GW is big enough to play games with sales to show they have more revenue than they actually do. There are also laws in place to prevent cooking the books the way Enron did to show more revenue than they actually had.

The closest parallel to GW is TSR (DnD). GW is mirroring the TSR path of ignoring the player base, thinking they have more influence than they actually do and flooding the market with product to boost sales. GW does however appear to be taking the correct path to prevent over production, which is what caused TSR to fold suddenly, but could lead to a loss of players because product isn't available.

I guess the most likely scenario is that GW's next financial report is rather poor and doesn't meet expectations and/or shows a downward trend. This causes the stock to tank, which may lead to one of three outcomes:

1) Current shareholders hold on to stock and force the board to vote in a new chairman
2) Kirby picks up more stock or current stock holders decided to keep him as chairman
3) Stock dips low enough that someone outside buys a controlling share and the company is sold or puts in their chairman

I think the chances of GW IP changing hands in the next year is fairly low. However, I do think the chances of the stock price tanking is fairly high, which means a new chairman and CEO should be in order. The primary issue with that is that I don't know how much GWs board, other than Kirby, actually care about the company's long term future. This means they may just slowly divest from the company and try to get out before it shrivels and dies.

The wildcard is what do other companies think GW's IP is worth?

 TheCustomLime wrote:
[I am not a business expert but I believe GW is in with companies like Tiffany in that they don't do sales so that they don't devalue their products. They believe they are a high end premium models company that is above that.

Shame GW's gak doesn't hold it's value like Tiffany. I have a $1000 worth of WHFB I'll be lucky to get $200 out of.

 Hivefleet Oblivion wrote:
This is the most interesting prospect. I've been there with a not dissimilar mass-market Plc, where the CEO got booted out by big investors... but you usually have to commit one really public error to get the boot like that. In my case it was the CEO losing around 30% of the company's market value with a disastrous deal.

Kirby's conservatism (save money, increase prices) would tend to mitigate against that, so while we can hope, I'm sceptical.

I think it depends on how much time the other board members spend or get presented with GW's market share information. Market share is a big deal as GW probably had 60%+ of the miniature gaming market share at one point and is probably down to sub 40% now, with a downward trend. Loosing 20%+ market share is a big deal.

I suspect that the board is presented with top line, bottom line and margin numbers and nothing else. The board is probably willfully ignorant of how the product is perceived and used in the market.

WayneTheGame wrote:
Isn't Kirby also the majority shareholder though? So could the other investors just kick him out like that?

I think he owns the most shares, but he only owns like 14% of the company, well below the 51% needed to be voted out proof.

AllSeeingSkink wrote:
Back when I started in the mid 90's, GW DID have sales (at least local ones if not global ones). The first army I bought, Lizardmen, was mostly bought off the back of sales. The 3rd army I bought was Tyranids, again bought mostly off the back of sales.

I think GW are silly for not exploiting sales. I'm pretty sure a large part of the reason Stormclaw is so popular is because the huge savings. Hell, part of the reason I bought Space Hulk back in the day was because I realised how much cheaper it was than buying the Terminators and Stealers separately.

Same where I played in the late 90s. The GW store would have a sale every year on the same weekend. No gaming for the weekend and days leading up to it because the store would be full of product. A line would start forming a hour a head of time and the store would be packed all day with people buying stuff. I see no reason why this amount of volume and sales at the store wouldn't make up for the discount.

I can buy at 20% off retail via online discounter which means GW gets maybe 60% of MSRP with say 10% margin

OR for the same price

I can buy at 20% off retail at the GW store because they are having a sale which means GW gets 80% of MSRP with say 30% margin

Which gets the company more money?

 Fenrir Kitsune wrote:
What about the rest of the year when that sales weekend isn't on? If I was in the market for a GW army, I'd just wait for the next sale to appear.

Couple of points

1) You are making the false assumption that the only place that the army can be purchased is via GW. This is means that GW has no incentive to run a sale because they have a captive audience who can only acquire product via GW at full price.

2) You are under estimating the power of "I want it now". I know many, many players who impulse buy items at full price because they have to have it.

3) GW is not the only place to purchase the army. You can buy the vast majority of it from any number of online retailers at a steady 20% discount, year round.

As it is now, GW direct (internet or shop) is the LAST place I would buy an army from. Why would I pay 20% more for the same product? Now if GW did have a sale of 20%+, bundle or not, I may consider purchasing direct from them. GW can the little money from me they get for going through a distributor all the time or they can have a bit more of my money by having sales.

Edit:

The reason the Sanctus Reach: Stormclaw set is selling at any appreciable volume is because it contains $225 worth of product and costs $125, not including the rulebook. That is a 45% discount. If I played Orks or Space Wolves and new someone playing the other, I would consider splitting it with them because it has value.

I have to buy Dark Vengeance for $110 to get a small rule book which is easily portable and a bunch of models I may not want.

OR

I have to buy the core rules for $85 which includes 2 books I don't need to play the game.

AND

I have to spend $50 on a Codex.

That is minimum of $135 unless I go via some covert route like eBay. I cannot impulse buy the rules for an army for less than $135.

I can impulse buy Warmachine for $75 ($30+$35), but I really only need the core rulebook. All the unit information is displayed on the card that comes with the model.

I can impulse buy X-wing for $40 and again additional rules come with the models.

You guys should probably go look at this thread in the Dakka Discussions forum:

http://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/607499.page

Kirby stepping down letter.

I think the current version of GW is cooked. The only way the company is going to turn around is with drastic change from the top down. When the new CEO comes in, the company needs to be treated like it was bought out and redone from the top down, board of directors included. This is the only way things will change.

However, as the board like their cushy checks and don't really want to make any changes, I suspect they will make the worst possible decisions. We'll see more rushed product, higher prices, more 1 man stores and probably more GW only models. I expect the non-UK market will drop substantially over the next year as Kirby ramps up his war on FLGS.

The next year will be a fun trip.