Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you: No adverts like this in the forums anymore. Times and dates in your local timezone. Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance. Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely. Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net. If you are already a member then feel free to login now.

It's not like this is a matter of opinion

The guys above are right, and if you observe a different behavior: just repeat it more often and the results will get closer and closer to the distribution.

This: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

Chrysis wrote:

Waaaghpower wrote:
Is it useful for guiding tactical decisions in-game? Nope!

It absolutely is useful for in game tactical decisions. Whenever you're assessing what order to fire weapons, and at what targets, to maximise your chances of eliminating primary targets you're using Mathhammer. But again, as stated everywhere, it's a guideline not a guarantee.

100% right. The math gives you information whether shooting this gun at that unit is a desperate move hoping for good luck or if you can expect half of the enemy unit to get wiped out if you shoot at something different. It's the base you need for solid tactical decisions. Depending on the situation it CAN be still the right thing to shoot with bolters on that jinking FMC since everything could be lost if it is not downed. But you can make better decisions if you know that the probability for that is 3% while the probability to kill those Genestealers which will be charging in the next round is 40%. Decisions, decisions

Btw, anyone not believing in the correctness of probabilities and math is invited to have a game with me. We'll throw 2d6 for 200 times and I will win 5 Euro on a roll of 7 and you will win 10 Euro on a roll of 12

The main problem is people who never had at least a bit of probability theory.

The number of rolls in a single game of 40k is low enough that the outliers may not get evened out. And if you lose a game or even a single loved unit due to this you'll remember that. The human mind is kinda biased with this, remembering the exceptional events better than the average ones.

Ventiscogreen wrote:
I've had games where I couldn't kill a razorback with my railgun. The next game I rolled all sixes on the same railgun against a landraider. Odds are a good thing to plan around, but sometimes gak just happens.

And still when you play 1000 games and you count how often that railgun hit or didn't hit you'll see that the results will match the theory. Only the single sample taken at random will deviate, the mass will inevitably show the mathematical distribution.