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In my opinion it is about 50%. I have seen instances where people take the nastiest net-list they can find, but have no idea how to play it, and they get housed. A good example was at a local RTT I saw a tau player with multiple riptides/knights/broadsides get completely ruined by experienced players who on paper didn't have as good of a list. He didn't win a single battle, but his list was super brutal.

There is an "art" to making a competitive list and I agree with the above posters that it varies greatly on your local meta, and gaming group, but the competitive list doesn't win the game, the player does. (In most cases, not all - this is a rock, paper, scissors type game, so match-ups can greatly determine your success)