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I am going to be running a Bike mounted SM Commander. Either a Captain or CM depending on the points in my list. My original idea was to keep him modest with AA and maybe Teeth of Terra, a Relic Blade, or a Powerfist, and bank on the T5 and 4++ to keep him safe. I have a healthy dose of AP2 or better shooting weaponry, so I think I could tool him for taking on weaker troop types of infantry and get away without Eternal Warrior. Lately though, I have been considering loading him for bear and giving him the Shield Eternal with a PF and having him capable of trading blows with just about anything.

My meta is usually free of people running net cheese lists, but most people are playing to win, so I expect to see some tough lists from most factions.

My question is, just how many different sources of Str10 or ID causing weapons are there out there that I am likely to see?

With that in mind, just how necessary is the Shield Eternal on a T5 model?

S10 and ID weapons are rare AFAIK.

You got hammerhead railguns, vindicator (the tank), the wraithknight guns off the top of my head. most MCs can smash for S10 too.
Bet there are a few more around. but except MCs there are like 1-2 per army, tops, that are S10. ID weapons usually show up only on force weapons and special characters.

To sum it up, the SE won't always be useful, but on the one occasion you don't take it, and your 200 point Chapter Master dies to a single shot, you'll wish you had.

As to S10/ID weapons, off the top of my head:

S10-
Tachyon Arrow
Railgun (hammerhead)
Demolisher Cannon (Vindicator/Leman)
Smashing MCs
Hammerhand+Thunder Hammers (GK)
Hammer/Fist Dreadknights
Warboss Power Klaw
Wraithknight (shooting and CC, I think)

ID-
D-Cannons (wraithguard)
Force weapons
Various SCs/relics
Helfrost weapons

There's more, I'm sure. The CC ones are easier to avoid thanks to your mobility, but rest assured that whatever S10 shooting the enemy have is going on the CM, unless you have a Land Raider as well. To be honest, you'll want a Storm Shield at the least to protect your investment, I'd say the extra cost for the SE is worth it.

Helfrost don't ID so the Shield Eternal won't help there. Also, TWC with fists/hammers have S10. But yeah, it's rare, and with a Bike Captain you're only going to be getting into assault with things you wanted to anyway, and if you're running White Scars then you can hit and run out of unfavourable matchups. The Shield Eternal is certainly not bad, but it's far from mandatory, considering that you're rocking a 2+/3++ and T5, can position your models to keep the Captain safe and can LOS on a 2+ at worst.

Depends on your local meta. At my own FLGS Wraithknights, Hammerheads, Vindicators, Zoanthropes and Force Weapons are rather common, so I face a sources of Instant Death in most games I play. The Shield Eternal often proves to be a good investment.

S10
Medusa siege gun
Conversion Beamer
Heavy Conversion Beamer
Dreadhammer Siege Cannon
Neutron Laser
Melta Cannon
Plasma blastgun (full)
Siege Wrecker
Worldbreaker
Orbital Bombardment
Precision Bombardment
Dawnbringer
Psychic Maelstrom


ID
Paragon blade
Silence

S10
Thunderwolf Cavalry
Smash
Walkers

ID
Nurgle daemon prices and GUOs