Peregrine wrote:AllSeeingSkink wrote:I dunno... I could totally believe that
GW is approaching saturation. They are the biggest players, I could believe that almost anyone who would potentially play table top games have already given
GW a go. How many of the people buying in to all the new games already own or have owned a bunch of
GW stuff?
I find the saturation argument difficult to believe when
GW refuses to accept that marketing is a useful tool and doesn't seem to care about the huge up-front costs scaring away new players. I'm sure some of the growth of other games is coming at
GW's expense, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see that it's also coming from those games recruiting new customers that
GW failed to get. So until
GW makes a legitimate effort to expand their business instead of acting like they can just sit back and let the cash come in I don't think we can say that it's impossible for
GW to see similar growth.
Well we can't say anything for sure, I just tend to think
GW's fall is partly because of their business practices but also partly because they are losing their top dog position in a natural progression of new games from other companies starting up and their customers becoming broader, the same way the iPhone didn't grow as much as the overall smartphone market once people starting buying Android phones, when new companies start up and are successful, it's mathematically impossible for the company that was previously top dog to grow at the same rate as the overall market.
The question is where is the balance... I don't want to sound too depressing but personally I think
GW would only be doing mildly better if they had better business practices and better rules. Better, sure, but no where near as much as the rest of wargaming is growing. Anecdotally I'd have to say wargaming in my area is about the same size as it ever was, it's just now more scattered where as previously it was almost all
GW.
As for the advertising thing, we can't really know unless
GW give a decent crack at advertising. But even there, I don't think it's a stretch to say wargaming only really appeals to a small subset of the community, it's not like video gaming or movies where your potential market is damned near everyone who is alive, wargaming (especially the larger games like
40k and WHDB) is only ever going to appeal to a special type of nerd who is willing to spend hundreds of dollars and hundreds of hours assembling an army. I don't think it's a stretch that those type of people don't need to be advertised to as heavily, I'd say most people who would be interested in starting a
40k or
WHFB army probably already know about the game. I'm sure
DoW has done a good job of marketing
GW directly to the people who are most likely to play it.
But who knows, maybe if
GW did some more advertising their sales would rise, I tend to be more on the fence about it.