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I have a friend who started following some of the 40k tournaments. Nearly every time he finds a winning list, he goes out and buys all the same models to make that list. I'm not really looking for ways to dissuade him - it's his money and his choice. But out of mere curiosity, how long do tournament lists remain highly competitive?

Obviously, a lot of it comes from an extremely strong general. But will 3+ Flyrants, Wave Serpent spam, and Centurion stars be considered "top lists" in 3 months? 6 months? 1 year?

It really depends on what the list is, and what changes.

For example, imperial guard had a moment when they swept a couple of tournaments with something called a "leafblower", which worked really well, until the next few codices came out, all of which did the same thing better. You wouldn't have finished painting an army by the time it went out of vogue.

Some of them, though, do have a little bit more gumption to them, especially if you're willing to keep playing until it becomes a level or two lower than the post powerful possible list. It's still going to be reasonably easy to win a game with a necron flying bakery, for example.

Even then, though, the strongest of the strong's duration can be measured in weeks or months, not years.