Author |
Message |
 |
|
 |
Advert
|
Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you:
- No adverts like this in the forums anymore.
- Times and dates in your local timezone.
- Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance.
- Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely.
- Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net.
If you are already a member then feel free to login now. |
|
 |
![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/14 02:47:41
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
|
 |
Frenzied Berserker Terminator
|
I often see people rolling 2+ saves one at a time...
|
" $@#& YOU! There are 3 things I want in a guy: Tall, Handsome, and plays Dark Eldar!"-every woman since
November 2010 |
|
 |
 |
![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/14 02:49:46
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
|
 |
Glorious Lord of Chaos
The burning pits of Hades, also known as Sweden in summer
|
How could it?
|
|
|
 |
 |
![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/14 03:00:18
Subject: Re:Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
|
 |
Fixture of Dakka
|
Those people are just dumbasses or trying to cheat.
|
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/07/14 03:00:51
"'players must agree how they are going to select their armies, and if any restrictions apply to the number and type of models they can use."
This is an actual rule in the actual rulebook. Quit whining about how you can imagine someone's army touching you in a bad place and play by the actual rules.
Freelance Ontologist
When people ask, "What's the point in understanding everything?" they've just disqualified themselves from using questions and should disappear in a puff of paradox. But they don't understand and just continue existing, which are also their only two strategies for life. |
|
 |
 |
![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/14 03:15:24
Subject: Re:Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
|
 |
Screaming Shining Spear
|
Useful
It used to matter with the DE shadow field - not so much anymore.
It can also matter if the rest of the unit is not 2+ saves as the tanking model might die then change the save of the unit
|
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/07/14 03:15:48
|
|
 |
 |
![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/14 03:18:27
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
|
 |
Missionary On A Mission
Australia
|
If the unit is mixed saves, then yes you will have to roll 1 at a time. Though I guess some people like to play up the suspense of rolling saves individually - "Passed, Passed, Passed, Pass, one save left... FAILED!"
|
|
|
 |
 |
![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/14 03:35:40
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
|
 |
Agile Revenant Titan
|
Absolutely not. But I always role better.
|
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/07/14 03:36:05
I do drugs.
Mostly Plastic Crack, but I do dabble in Cardboard Cocaine. |
|
 |
 |
![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/14 03:37:13
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
|
 |
Hellacious Havoc
Kansas, USA
|
Outside of a multiple save scenario, it just slows down the game. Statistically, its the same chance for a dice to land on any facing. One dice at a time or all at once. Its still the same 16.7% chance of a one.
What it does do is have a psychological effect on the roller. Often making a character feel powerful along with adding some suspense to the game. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing. It's nice to see a terminator lord shrug off attack after attack before finally going down. The inverse is also true, watching the assaulted lord take save after save, wondering if your going to finally take it down, and when it does, a sense of relief washes over you. It's almost like watching a personal movie just for you, and dare I say... It's fun?
That being said, I only like it in situations like challenges, small combat, and multiple saves in the unit. If I put 25 wounds on your squad of ork boys and you decide to take every single one of those saves individually, your a schmuck. All that does is make the game take longer and I probably won't play you again.
TLDR: There is no tactical advantage to rolling dice one at a time.
|
"Because we couldn't be trusted. The Emperor needed a weapon that would never obey its own desires before those of the Imperium. He needed a weapon that would never bite the hand that feeds. The World Eaters were not that weapon. We've all drawn blades purely for the sake of shedding blood, and we've all felt the exultation of winning a war that never even needed to happen. We are not the tame, reliable pets that the Emperor wanted. The Wolves obey, when we would not. The Wolves can be trusted, when we never could. They have discipline we lack, because their passions are not aflame with the Butcher's Nails buzzing in the back of their skulls.
The Wolves will always come to the heel when called. In that regard, it is a mystery why they name themselves wolves. They are tame, collared by the Emperor, obeying his every whim. But a wolf doesn't behave that way. Only a dog does.
That is why we are the Eaters of Worlds, and the War Hounds no longer."
- Eighth Captain Khârn |
|
 |
 |
![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/14 03:38:25
Subject: Re:Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
|
 |
Screaming Shining Spear
|
Short answer: no.
Long answer: rolling one dice multiple times is statistically identical to rolling multiple dice one time.
The only reason you would roll dice one at a time in 40k would be a situation involving mixed saves.
I was under the impression this was common knowledge...
|
~3000 (Fully Painted)
Coming Soon!
|
|
 |
 |
![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/14 04:31:41
Subject: Re:Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
|
 |
Douglas Bader
|
The only way it could be relevant is that it's much easier to cheat and "roll" dice without really rolling them if you do one die at a time. It gives you a lot more control over the die than shaking and throwing a whole handful at once, so if you see your opponent carefully arranging the orientation of the die in their hand and then "rolling" it so that it doesn't flip over very many times or bounce around the table randomly then you might want to be suspicious and ask them to at least shake the die thoroughly in their hands without looking at it. But assuming nobody is trying to cheat then rolling one at a time is exactly the same as rolling lots at once.
|
There is no such thing as a hobby without politics. "Leave politics at the door" is itself a political statement, an endorsement of the status quo and an attempt to silence dissenting voices. |
|
 |
 |
![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/14 05:00:59
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
|
 |
Loyal Necron Lychguard
|
It's far easier to do a calculated roll one at a time than with a fistfull. Always be wary of single dicers.
|
|
 |
 |
![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/14 05:02:06
Subject: Re:Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
|
 |
Devestating Grey Knight Dreadknight
|
^ What peregrine said, plus if a particular die is mis-weighted it could have a better chance of rolling a 6 vs a 1, for example.
|
Hope is the first step on the road to disappointment. |
|
 |
 |
![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/14 08:26:29
Subject: Re:Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
|
 |
War Walker Pilot with Withering Fire
|
No it does not.
Who was your high-school math teacher? They did a terrible job.
|
8,000 pts and counting
1,000 points, now painting. |
|
 |
 |
![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/14 11:09:44
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
|
 |
Stealthy Grot Snipa
|
Statistically no.
But is it useful for something? Yes.
If you have a squad full of 2+ saves then its not important. But lets take the example of why I rolled single saves last Friday.
I had a 2+ 2W model tanking shots for my lootas. The benefit being his 2+ also provides SNP, which allows me to move and shoot. Therefore the Model is performing two functions; bullet sponge and 'move and shoot'.
If I am taking low volume shots and I need to make 2-3 saves, I will roll all at the same time. If however I take 7+ wounds then I start to roll individually or in 2's. The reason being, I will tank as many saves onto the 2+ until I take 1W, at which point I then weigh up the choice of potentially losing 'move and shoot' in order to save more lootas. I at that point will probably LoS, as I would like the 2+ to survive until next turn where I can move and shoot again.
It also works psychologically. If the opponent sees me fail 1 and I start to LoS, they might then decide to throw more firepower at the lootas, thinking I will LoS (allowing them to hurt the high priority lootas). However if they do, often I will begin to roll on the 2+ again as if I LoS, I will lose so much firepower its not worth having the move and shoot.
So overall, there are situations where rolling individually is of benefit.
|
Favourite Game: When your Warboss on bike wrecks 3 vehicles simply by HoW - especially when his bike is a custom monowheel.
|
|
 |
 |
![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/14 12:22:03
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
|
 |
Been Around the Block
|
Probably just a "mojo" thing like when people blow on their dice before rolling. Tell yer mates ta use red dice, dey kill yer enemiez fasta.
|
|
 |
 |
![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/14 14:18:05
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
|
 |
Longtime Dakkanaut
|
As stated, statistically it does not matter.
What it DOES do is slow the game down. Often this is just tedious (do you really need to roll all 25 saves one at a time for your Terminators?), but sometimes, as in the case of a special character on their last wound, it can be a lot of fun! Abaddon's at 1 wound left and he has to pass 5 saves. Rolling one at a time in that circumstance increases the tension - each roll being so important that it has its own story, especially when the last one rolled is a 1 (so you knew it took ALL the shots to take him down)!
|
Galef wrote:If you refuse to use rock, you will never beat scissors. |
|
 |
 |
![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/14 16:28:45
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
|
 |
Painlord Titan Princeps of Slaanesh
|
omg, It is so much easier to manipulate one dice than a handful. For example i can spin the dice side ways so that it would still land with a 6 on top.
[youtube]fJbUwnnlIFQ[/youtube ]
|
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2015/07/14 16:29:35
|
|
 |
 |
![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/14 16:47:41
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
|
 |
Regular Dakkanaut
|
Yarium wrote:it can be a lot of fun! Abaddon's at 1 wound left and he has to pass 5 saves. Rolling one at a time in that circumstance increases the tension - each roll being so important that it has its own story, especially when the last one rolled is a 1 (so you knew it took ALL the shots to take him down)!
Or it's the first roll and it's like "That was all?"
|
|
 |
 |
![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/14 16:54:46
Subject: Re:Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
|
 |
Regular Dakkanaut
|
TheNewBlood wrote:Short answer: no.
Long answer: rolling one dice multiple times is statistically identical to rolling multiple dice one time.
The only reason you would roll dice one at a time in 40k would be a situation involving mixed saves.
I was under the impression this was common knowledge...
I learned recently that there is no such thing as common knowledge, unless you're speaking academically. We start out knowing nothing. This lucky guy is on the 10000 people who learned this statistical fact today.
|
|
 |
 |
![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/14 17:02:59
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
|
 |
Dakka Veteran
|
While anecdotal evidence is not scientifically valid, I have noted that my 1s and 2s often tend to bundle up in a little group when I roll a bunch of dice.
I can't count the times I've rolled a lot of dice, initially thought "yay, few 1/2s!" only to notice the little group of 1s and 2s grouped up by themselves.
|
|
 |
 |
![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/15 01:21:12
Subject: Re:Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
|
 |
Judgemental Grey Knight Justicar
|
I know it doesn't actually matter, but it sure as heck SEEMS to matter, lol. I'm another one that can seem to roll single saves all day, but once I pick up about 3 or more dice to throw, I get  out of it.
|
|
|
 |
 |
![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/15 01:28:53
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
|
 |
Longtime Dakkanaut
|
If you're rolling LoS then you have to roll the dice one at a time - that's just part of the game and is no way cheating. If you think your opponent is using a loaded dice then pick it up and do some test rolls.
|
|
|
 |
 |
![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/15 04:50:34
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
|
 |
Longtime Dakkanaut
Indiana
|
I can make a difference in multi wound units, units with IC's etc.
Also for some reason it FEELs like it will be less likely to fail for some reason because each dice is an individual with no impact on the other. So as you make more and more saves it feels like your odds are getting better and better with each roll. Plus it is fun to roll them one at a time and see how long your guy makes it before they eventually fail rather than seeing it right away.
Psychology(for me anyway) rather than actual statsitics.
|
|
|
 |
 |
![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/15 07:44:57
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
|
 |
Dakka Veteran
|
There are tons of reasons why Automatically Appended Next Post: Leth wrote:I can make a difference in multi wound units, units with IC's etc.
Also for some reason it FEELs like it will be less likely to fail for some reason because each dice is an individual with no impact on the other. So as you make more and more saves it feels like your odds are getting better and better with each roll. Plus it is fun to roll them one at a time and see how long your guy makes it before they eventually fail rather than seeing it right away.
Psychology(for me anyway) rather than actual statsitics.
Actually as you make more saves your overall odds for passing as many as possible do go up
|
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/07/15 07:45:50
|
|
 |
 |
![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/15 11:18:14
Subject: Re:Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
|
 |
Towering Hierophant Bio-Titan
UK
|
Yes.
When you roll a dice, you assume randomness but if you roll a single dice you are inclined to roll it in a similar way (in terms of throw) and you are also likely to pick up the dice from a more specific starting position (i.e. between 2 and 6). I also believe that standard dice (due to rounded corners exacerbating the weight issue due to pips) in 40k have a small but significant bias (I dunno, 0.5-5%) but to which side, I have no idea! (So as a result, that has never bothered me!)
So if you picked up a dice, gave it a good shake within your hands then threw it with a different speed/force each throw then no.
On the other hand, the act of throwing multiple dice (in addition to the mechanical fact that I feel you are likely to throw them harder to be able to spread the die out) ensures many many more interactions that don't involve the thrower - i.e. the bouncing of die against each other, which in turn smooths out the distribution and makes the outcome more 'true'.
|
H.B.M.C. wrote:Friend of mine just sent me this:
"The Tyranid Codex, where I learned the truth about despair, as will you. There's a reason why this codex is the worst hell on earth... Hope. ." Too be fair.. it's all worked out quite well!
Heh. |
|
 |
 |
![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/15 14:30:00
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
|
 |
Pious Palatine
|
Yeah the only time it's useful if when you have mixed saves.
It offers no statistical advantage although it it could affect people psychologically.
For instance I remember trying to kill a Necron lord from the lost dex who had a single wound left and a 2+, I put 11 wounds on him and my opponent rolled them individually, despite the lord been a single model (I think I'd already killed the rest of his squad) and he passed them all. I couldn't believe it and the Lord became a scary individual lurking in my deployment zone...
Equally, i recently tried to tank a bunch of wounds on Dante, proceeded to immediately roll a 1, not deterred, I then proceeded to roll a second consecutive 1. So it certainly doesn't increase your chances of making the save!
D
|
|
 |
 |
![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/15 14:49:53
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
|
 |
Longtime Dakkanaut
|
Look Out Sir.
|
|
|
 |
 |
![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/15 16:40:23
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
|
 |
Nasty Nob on Warbike with Klaw
|
Rolling 1 save at a time is the actual rules.
Rolling saves as a batch is a house rule
|
|
 |
 |
![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/15 17:29:44
Subject: Re:Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
|
 |
Bonkers Buggy Driver with Rockets
|
It actually does. Statics support it. It actually has to do with the number of variables in the event.
|
Armies:
The Iron Waagh: 10,000+ 8th Edition Tournament Record: 4-7-1
Salamanders: 5,000 8th Edition Tournament Record: 4-2
Ultramarines: 4,000
Armored Battle Company (DKoK): 4000
Elysians: 500
Khorne Daemons: 2500
|
|
 |
 |
![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/15 17:36:19
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
|
 |
Shadowy Grot Kommittee Memba
The Great State of New Jersey
|
As someone who has a lot of background doing really advanced statistics - no, no there is no difference between rolling one die and rolling multiple die. There is only the ILLUSION that you have a statistically better chance of passing saves because you are at most only presented with a single success/failure at a time, as opposed to multiple.
I.E. - Glitcha, you're wrong.
|
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/07/15 17:36:33
|
|
 |
 |
![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/15 18:58:10
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
|
 |
Hungry Little Ripper
|
chaos0xomega wrote:As someone who has a lot of background doing really advanced statistics - no, no there is no difference between rolling one die and rolling multiple die. There is only the ILLUSION that you have a statistically better chance of passing saves because you are at most only presented with a single success/failure at a time, as opposed to multiple.
I.E. - Glitcha, you're wrong.
2nd That.
|
|
 |
 |
|