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well I'd check your local areas, see what groups might be meeting, what they might be playing
determine how quickly you can get an army up and running from that information
decide what's worth it to you
Otherwise, if you're not playing, so much as must painting, you could pick a few things you like, such as one of the GW boxed games, that'll give you models to paint, and a game to play later if wanted, and start you towards a possible army
And you can always check out non GW stuffs. Malifaux is fun to paint (fiddly to put together though) and fun to play, also pretty inexpensive to start ~50 to ~70 USD, depending what crew + maybe an extra model or two. I haven't played Kings of War but some have and really like it. Also, I've seen some players in my LGS playing warmahordes and while I don't know a lot about it, I did quite admire the models they were using.
On the one hand, AoS is in a bit of a change, due to them adding points in, but its getting active attention from GW, even if some of that is only redoing old boxes with the same sculpts on round bases. And on the other hand, in some ways it's a lot closer to 40k, to me a lot of the actual newer units seem more Sci Fi than Fantasy.
40K still has more interesting machines imo, than other games, so if you really want to paint tanks and such, I might be more inclined to go that route.
Anyway just some thoughts, good luck with whatever you choose!
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