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That is a mean list you're going up against. As you said, he doesn't have many models on the table and will be hard-pressed to capture objectives, so MSU is the way to go. Perhaps two identical CADs that look like this.
Lord
5x Immortal
5x Immortal
3x Wraith
3x Wraith
3x Wraith
3x Heavy Destroyers
Two CADs like that will run 1460 points. You can use the remaining 40 to upgrade the Lords or Wraiths as you see fit. Despite being loaded with dakka, Stormsurges aren't terribly tough at only T6 with a 3+ save, so the Destroyers will put the hurt on and with JSJ you should be able to keep them safe. With 6 squads of Wraiths to deal with, he'll have no choice, but to focus fire overkill one at a time. All you need is two turns before assaulting and at that point it's game is over. You tarpit or kill the Surges and Broadsides while your Immortals obsec the game away.
He's definitely going to get first blood, but you should be able to score Linebreaker while denying it to him.
I don't typically play ITC type competitive games, so this may be totally wrong, but it's something to think about.
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