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Blood Angels:

Corbulo - very old model, ambiguously dead since Shield of Baal unless he's since reappeared, cheap proxy for recent model
Mephiston - very old model
Lemartes - cheap proxy for recent model, two Death Company characters aren't surviving
Karlaen - model re-released as non-special character already
Gabriel Seth - Dante is an important character, in the coming war, or supposed to be, Logan somethingorother has a very recent model, and only so many Chapter Masters can make it logically.

Dark Angels

Azrael - If Lion 'El Johnson reappears, he's expendable
Ezekiel - very old model
Asmodai - very old model, cheap proxy for recent model

Space Wolves:

Everyone whose model predates latest codex, as there's only going to be so many survivors.

Continue the list

Every finecast model will either receive a new plastic version or get killed.

Chaos Space Marine:
Abaddon and the Chaos Lords of the four Gods are safe because of plot shield (also some of the them *cough*Lucius*cough* can't die).
Fabius Bile maybe, although he is quite relevent in the plot.
Huron Blackheart, if any model is likely to go it's him: model is old and pretty rubbish, no one uses him and there are always more pirates to replace him.

Chaos Daemons:
Can't die so we're safe.

There's that one guy they've never made a model for, the emperor or steve or something like that. He's probably gonna go.

Tyranno wrote:
Blood Angels:

Corbulo - very old model, ambiguously dead since Shield of Baal unless he's since reappeared, cheap proxy for recent model
Mephiston - very old model
Lemartes - cheap proxy for recent model, two Death Company characters aren't surviving
Karlaen - model re-released as non-special character already
Gabriel Seth - Dante is an important character, in the coming war, or supposed to be, Logan somethingorother has a very recent model, and only so many Chapter Masters can make it logically.

Dark Angels

Azrael - If Lion 'El Johnson reappears, he's expendable
Ezekiel - very old model
Asmodai - very old model, cheap proxy for recent model

Space Wolves:

Everyone whose model predates latest codex, as there's only going to be so many survivors.

Continue the list

Asmodai had a model update


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Also, slightly off topic, but I've always liked special characters like the Emporers champion. They can die and it doesn't effect the plot so dramatically as they aren't a specific persona. Same reason I like the Phoenix Lords, the only way they can be lost is if the armour is never recovered.

Eldar:

All Phoenix Lords if GW pulls up the Rhana Dandra battle.

Looking at what GW did with Warhammer, I think it is safe to say that any model that isn't plastic will either die, or get a new model. Abaddon may get the Archon treatment, and get a stonking great new plastic model, hopefully it won't have the same ludicrous price tag.

Going to be nice to see GW turn 40K into an all plastic game, I recall when I worked for the company back in the early 2000's there was always talk from the upper levels that this was the direction they wanted to take the company.

Space Wolves look to be considering killing off most of the Great Company leaders who've never had a GW model.
Ironwolves lost Egil Ironwolf.
Firehowlers suspected dead after suicide mission.
Redmaws are a lose end.
Seawolves same.
Sons of Morkai same.
Red Moons same.
Stormwolves same.
Grimbloods same.