Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you: No adverts like this in the forums anymore. Times and dates in your local timezone. Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance. Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely. Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net. If you are already a member then feel free to login now.

Hello dakkadakka,

I just finished the first version of a small self contained webpage which allows you to compare different weapons and equipment. It calculates charts from data row inputs and shows probabilities for a number of wounds you can expect from it.
Started as a test for me and some friends but it might be worth sharing. The page contains some more brief explanations on what to fill where.

The input looks like this:


Just fill in the stats and generate a chart:



The chart shows Scions with Hot-Shot lasguns shooting on MEQ's which are not in cover. The x-achsis represents the number of wounds and the y-achsis represents probability (in %) at least X wounds are done. This chart shows that 40 Shots of Hot-Shot Lasgun do atleast 6 kills with a probability 73% and that 10 Shots are pretty much equal to loley wyvern shooting.

The charts are exportable so your insights might be shared.

beta
This is currently a beta state and I would really like some feedback and reports of any errors (I hope my calculations are correct so far)

The tool will change in the next weeks and I will keep this updated. If people are interesed I might host the page on some domain (Though I currently don't own webspace or a domain...)

Happy Theory.

Charts updated to cut everything under 0.5%. Visibility of data is increased.

I always enjoy a good number crunching Is the source code visible somewhere so that we can check your math?

Currently not I will open source it tonight on github.

Is it possible to add in Damage?

I know Damage for Multiple Wound Squads would be difficult, but I'm honestly more curious about tank busting.

 Talamare wrote:
Is it possible to add in Damage?

I know Damage for Multiple Wound Squads would be difficult, but I'm honestly more curious about tank busting.

I guess it is possible but it is way more difficult to apply than most people realize. Damage is very easy to take into account in expected value, but probability is based on discrete results and thus it add a great number of permutations. I'm looking forward to see if XeZZ handles it though.

Personally, I prefer probability approach because expected values can be misleading.

jullevi wrote:

 Talamare wrote:
Is it possible to add in Damage?

I know Damage for Multiple Wound Squads would be difficult, but I'm honestly more curious about tank busting.

I guess it is possible but it is way more difficult to apply than most people realize. Damage is very easy to take into account in expected value, but probability is based on discrete results and thus it add a great number of permutations. I'm looking forward to see if XeZZ handles it though.

Personally, I prefer probability approach because expected values can be misleading.

Well, flat damage should easy right. Just multiply the final value by a flat number.
I would be fine with that for now. I understand it isn't as accurate. Tho it would still give us an idea.

I actually have the formula to calculate damage. Its pretty much the same as for the randomized dice rolls to determine shots (Which is hell complicated). But it for now it will not consider targets hp which means its only really usefull for tankbusting and not for shooting MW Squads

I hope I can add it today or tomorrow.

I will try to make targets have a Wound value so that if target has 2 Wounds any die Roll of 2+ is just 2 to mitigate some overkill. But this solves not everything.

The real problem with Multiwound squads is this:
Say you Roll 2 Dice for dmg where one shows 1 DMG and one shows 2 DMG, then on a Squad with 2 Wounds each the sequence actually matters:
1 -> 2: One Model gets a Wound for dice one. The Same model gets 2 Wounds for dice two and dies -> dice 1 is overkill
2 -> 1: One Model gets two Wounds and dies. Another Model is left with one Wound

I must admit that I currently have no clue how to calculate this except a brute force method which gets out of hand in terms of computation real quick.