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This is version 3 (or 4). The final list with new points costs for Brimstones accounted for and max 3 detachments :-). Just want to state again, this is a theory list, I only own 2 Giant Spawn, the Spawn, Disciples, models to use for Malefic Lords and the 'surprise addition'. The rest such as the other Giant Spawn, Chariots and Horrors, I don't own. I just really like list building :-p.

So the Final List
Brigade Detachment:
Malefic Lord

Malefic Lord

Malefic Lord

Malefic Lord

Malefic Lord

9 Brimstone Horrors, 1 Blue Horror

9 Brimstone Horrors, 1 Blue Horror

9 Brimstone Horrors, 1 Blue Horror

9 Brimstone Horrors, 1 Blue Horror

9 Brimstone Horrors, 1 Blue Horror

9 Brimstone Horrors, 1 Blue Horror

5 Disciples with Heavy Bolter

5 Disciples with Mortar

5 Disciples with Mortar

Spawn

Spawn

Spawn

Exalted Seeker Chariot

Exalted Seeker Chariot

Giant Spawn

Giant Spawn

Giant Spawn

Spearhead Detachment:
Malefic Lord

Malefic Lord

Giant Spawn

Giant Spawn

Giant Spawn

Giant Spawn

Giant Spawn

Supreme Command Detachment:
Malefic Lord

Malefic Lord

Malefic Lord

Malefic Lord

Malefic Lord

Chaos Knight with Avenger Cannon, Reaper Chainsword and Heavy Stubber

2000pts

Loss of a Herald Chariot, an Exalted Chariot, 4 Horror units and 2 Decimators for the gain of 1 Malefic Lord and the Knight on the previous list (plus the 222pt disparity for Brimstones and Soulburner Petards increasing in price, so something had to give anyway).

List still has 110 T5 4+ 5++ wounds from the Giant Spawn and Exalteds. These won't be suffering as much heavy firepower as before due to the Knight and can shield the Knight from other superheavies and dangerous assault units to ensure he gets the charge.
The Horror units will now each have to Malefic Lords for 6 82 point units that put out 4.5 mortal wounds a turn average, for a total of 27 mortal wounds a turn (not including the Chariots). These units have 10 T3 4++ wounds at 3 points apiece before they get to the Lords, so nobody targeting them is making their points back in any manner of time.
The Spawn and Disciples are there to fill slots but are still decent for their points and will likely go overlooked with the rest of the list. The Disciples can sit on home objectives.
Pace in the list with Giant Spawn, Chariots and the Knight.
A list which can focus down the Knight quickly shouldn't have the correct firepower to also deal with 110 T5 4+ 5++ wounds and/or 60 T3 4++ (3pt) wounds before even considering the Lords, Disciples and normal Spawn.
Hopefully this throws too much different types of durability for the opponent to deal with, on top of a high damage output.

Has the Knight added danger despite the loss of a few units? Is it a dangerous list to face?

I think it is. Not a fan of the chariots, to be honest, too fragile and they lose effectiveness after losing a few wounds

Yeh the loss of effectiveness would be a pain, but the idea of 16 attacks, 8 at ap-1 that get even better on a wound of 6 sounds great for horde control, let alone the potential for mortal wounds on the charge. They are only 78% as durable as a Giant Spawn for their points though. Swapping out the 2 for Giant Spawn nets enough points to upgrade all the Disciple squads to Lascannons.

I love the fact that lascannons are only as effective against Giant Spawn as they are against Knights, wounding both on a 3+ and both having a 5++. That makes Giant Spawn 2.3 times more durable for their points against Lascannons compared to Knights! On average a BS3+ Lascannon takes only 1.04 wounds off a Giant Spawn a turn.

To add to your woes , its pretty nuch confirmed that maelfic lords will get a points bump in Chapter Approved.

Smite might get tweaked too.

Sigb

Which is well deserved, as well as conscripts.

Conscripts cannot get a point bump, they would end up costing the same as infantry squads but with less WS, BS and weapon options. A good solution would be to have the commissars not work on them.

I think all the infantry should get bumped up including HWTs. It's inventively coming for scions as well. What are the changes for smite? I haven't heard anything.

If you bump up all of the infantries, scions included, and HWTs, you're basically saying "we don't want you to play Guard anymore in any competitive setting". I'm fine with tweaking whatever breaks the meta, but not with making an entire army basically unusable.

-Malefic Lord point increase
-Character Auras and Orders not working on conscripts
-Points increase on plasma guns and heavy bolters to 10pts for guard (let's face it - these are massively undercosted for guard)
-Elysians getting a 1pt bump for non characters across the board.
-Elysian Officers of the Fleet getting at least a 15pt bump (other Elysian Characters get 10 bump for Arial drop and the Elysian OotF also has an upgraded ability on the normal one).

That should sort a fair few issues out

I'm fine with malefic lords point increase, and with auras (but not orders) not working on conscripts. Maybe just the commissar's one is enough. I can even get behind the point increase for elysians (not the characters, though, or at least not that much). But nerfing plasmaguns basically means telling guard players "you need to play mechanized, which is not very effective, if you ever want to be competitive".

Other Elysians characters already have a 10pt bump because they get Ariel Drop but the OotF hasn't had this bump so he needs it. Plus his ability is far superior to a normal OotF as any Elysian unit, not just flyers, re roll to hit of 1s on the target he nominates. Personally I think that should be an extra 15point (for a total of 25 increase so doubling his cost).
Plasma Guns at 7pts are broken for Guard. I was saying in another thread that you could just make a Guard list with Plasma as upgrades and you'd still have a top list. I even came up with one I might post later. Grenade Launchers are fine at 5pts, but over grenade launchers, Plasma guns get +1 strength -2 to the ap, an extra shot at 12" and have the option of overcharging (where it is very easy in a Guard list to counteract the downside of this) for strength 8 which is a huge increase with the new wounding rules on st7 and double damage. All for just 2pts more. That's insane. It's why every single top table competitive guard list has a vast amount of plasma guns - because they are for their price the best weapon upgrade, that can be easily spammed, in the game. They would still be competitive at 10pts a piece.

Sure, plasmaguns are great. And if taken individually, without any context, 7 points for that weapon is a very low cost. But you need to consider the rest of the army too.

Plasmaguns are about the ONLY competitive thing the Guard has (maybe Earthshaker batteries, if we want to go into FW models, and conscripts, but I already said I'm fine with Commissars not working on them, which would nerf them heavily. HWTs are good, but not broken). Also, a plasmagun on a SM is not the same thing as a plasmagun on a model that dies when you look at him sideways.

Yes, every competitive Guard list is full of plasmaguns, whereas other armies can have very different lists and still be competitive. That's because Guard NEEDS plasmaguns to be competitive, they are the only good choice there. If you nerf them, you're essentially telling every Guard player "get yourself another army if you want to be competitive".

I'm not so sure. I took a list with tons of Infantry units with Grenade Launchers (which are bog standard admittedly), Lascannons and voxs, a couple of max flamer vet units, a couple of command squads with Lascannons, a large amount of HWSs with Lascannons and Autocannons, a couple of Chimeras a Hellhound and a decent number of Company and Platoon Commanders and it absolutely annihilated an Eldar and a CSM army. And the vehicles didnt really do much at all apart from sit and look pretty
My Guard doesn't have any plasma as I was running them as Renegades in 7th ed and Plasma was just a way of saying bye bye expensive model in my own shooting phase.

I found the normal and veteran infantry are incredibly powerful for their points. Especially with Orders! Mass flamer units moving in front of potential assaults is great and unless the opponent has lots of cheap assault units (something difficult to achieve if you are not Orks or Nids), then they will charge into some incredibly cheap chaff (most of my Infantry units are 70pts), then they are stranded next turn in front of a mass gunline and get shot and burned to a crisp.

Also a 5+ save is SO good this edition compared to last, especially with the new cover rules and definitely when you consider it's on a 4pt model.

FRFSRF is an amazing order too. A 4pt model getting 4 shots is pretty damn good. When it got close and personal, I would rather give a squad an extra 14 lasgun shots in many cases than use the rerolls of 1s to hit (or wound). And Conscripts with that! Wow! 40 get 160 shots since its so much easier in 8th to be in rapid fire range, then 80 further attacks if they charge in and are accompanied by a Priest, that's 6 attacks with the shooting for a 3pt model (admittedly It's a lot harder to get them all in swinging range than it is in rapid fire range).

HWSs are amazing too, although I agree - not broken. They certainly need cover. For 48pts though you are getting 4 heavy Bolter abalative wounds and a Lascannon. 6 wounds before that Lascannon is removed, and the HBs being far more dangerous than 2 mortars. Although I will say I am hugely disappointed at the cost of autocannons.

Forgetting about the existence of Elysians for a minute, Scions are highly competitive too. Being able to drop anywhere in the first 3 turns for their points cost is incredibly good.

Rough Riders are now worth taking. Even if plasma guns were increased to 10 pts they would still be putting out 5 plasma shots for 71 (Rather than 65) points. They are pretty good for their speed, firepower and having a reasonable assault ability with their lances.

Ogryns have become decent for their points too.

I definitely would say Guard would still be top tier if plasma guns were 10pts a gun.