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Did anyone notice that the Warhammer community article was written by someone who doesn't understand how multiple dependant probabilities interact?

Warhammer Community wrote:Fulgurite Electro-Priests are already a superb unit, capable of dealing huge damage in assault and growing in power thanks to Siphoned Vigour bringing them up to a 3+ Invulnerable Save. With the Graia dogma, a group of Fulgurite Electro-Priests get this save, followed by a second pseudo-saving throw from Fanatical Devotion, followed by their final Refusal To Yield roll. In practice, this means you’ll be saving 83% of wounds from normal sources and 50% of mortal wounds.

These numbers are pretty obviously wrong as the real numbers are 81% of normal wounds (close enough could be a rounding error) and 45% of mortal wounds (way off). I can't even work what mistake they are making to get these figures, are they adding the 1/3 chance to save from Fanatical devotion to the 1/6 from Refusal to Yield, but then correctly multiplying by the invuln? It gives the answers they got but is a really strange error to make.

Or option 2 am I missing something and failing at my own calculations?

Well as the liberal media tells us feelings about what the numbers should be are more important than actual scientific results.

What are the actual saves here? I don't know what these rules do.

Or, perhaps, as the conservative media tells us, the numbers are what we say they are, no don't go look up the real results.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 mrhappyface wrote:
What are the actual saves here? I don't know what these rules do.

One of them is a 3++ invuln, the second is a 5+ FnP analogue and the last is a 6+ to ignore the loss of your last wound.

hobojebus wrote:
Well as the liberal media tells us feelings about what the numbers should be are more important than actual scientific results.

I thought that was just the post-truth society and the "fantasy-industrial complex" that America is suffering.

hobojebus wrote:Well as the liberal media tells us feelings about what the numbers should be are more important than actual scientific results.

Drager wrote:Or, perhaps, as the conservative media tells us, the numbers are what we say they are, no don't go look up the real results.

Or perhaps they are both political groups so everything that comes out of their mouths is a lie?

One of them is a 3++ invuln, the second is a 5+ FnP analogue and the last is a 6+ to ignore the loss of your last wound.

Aye, your maths is right then. Perhaps they have a re-roll aura that wasn't mentioned? Or maybe the two results were done by two different people: the first had a rounding error, the other said 45% is about 50%.

My guess is they're just adding 1/6 from refusal to yield on to the 2/6 from fanatical devotion, giving them a 3/6.

That would also explain why they in the first example get 1/3 from 1/6+1/6. This is absolutely close enough that they could just be rounding to the nearest sane number, but I think it's the actual math used.

NOTE: Keep the political talk OUT of this thread - and OUT of any thread NOT in the OT Forum.

Thanks!

mrhappyface wrote:

hobojebus wrote:Well as the liberal media tells us feelings about what the numbers should be are more important than actual scientific results.

Drager wrote:Or, perhaps, as the conservative media tells us, the numbers are what we say they are, no don't go look up the real results.

Or perhaps they are both political groups so everything that comes out of their mouths is a lie?

Alpharius wrote:NOTE: Keep the political talk OUT of this thread - and OUT of any thread NOT in the OT Forum.

Thanks!

I was attempting to make these points satirically, I failed and for that I apologise.

 Purifier wrote:
My guess is they're just adding 1/6 from refusal to yield on to the 2/6 from fanatical devotion, giving them a 3/6.

That would also explain why they in the first example get 1/3 from 1/6+1/6. This is absolutely close enough that they could just be rounding to the nearest sane number, but I think it's the actual math used.

Anyway, I think that makes sense purifier, I hope no one in the design team does that as it has serious implications some of the time.

Drager wrote:
Anyway, I think that makes sense purifier, I hope no one in the design team does that as it has serious implications some of the time.

What, you don't think a 3+ save followed by a 5+ FNP should be mathematically counted as 4/6+2/6, resulting in a 100% chance to save? /s