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Hi!

I was theory crafting on the damage output of primaris armed with special issue weapons and found myself wondering which ammo types I would use against certain targets. From my VERY basic attempts at doing math here are some results I found.

Intercessor firing bolt rifle (Just assuming no double tap from extra range or being out of range.)

Against t4 3+
Kraken: 50% chance to wound, but takes the save from a 50% chance to a 33% chance.
Hellfire: Takes your 50% chance to wound to a 83% chance to wound.

Hellfire gives you gain off 33% chance to wound where the kraken give you a 17% increased chance to make the other guy fail his armor save. So against a marine chasis I feel like Hellfire is the way to go. Now my question here is does this scale towards certain saves? So the math on the difference in the save would be the same against a 2+, but taking a 2+ down to a 4+ feels like a really big deal, but does the math reflect that?

Against anything the kraken wounds on 5s I feel like the poison 2+ would be best against (Not including vehicles of course).

Against t3 5+
Kraken means they don't get a save at all taking their 16% chance to zero.
Hellfire takes your 66% chance to wound to a 83% chance and leaves their save at a 16% chance.

Either way you are looking at 16% shift towards either applying wounds or making them fail saves. I feel like having a re-roll ones to wound would make the kraken better.

t3 4+
Kraken takes the save to a 16% chance and keeps you at your 66% chance to wound
Hellfire takes your 66% chance to a 83% chance and leaves them with a 33% chance to save.

Here I feel like reducing the save to a 6+ is the go to option. Taking them from a 5 to 6 is halving the chance they save a wound which is a really big deal.


Bolt Carbine/auto bolt rifle

This one I feel kraken will take it against anything that is not t5+. The extra range and modifying the save would probably be a bigger deal than wounding on a 2, but I'm not so certain my feelings match the math haha.

So has anyone done the math on all this or have opinions on what ammo is best for which situation? I didn't include vengeance because I figured it would be the go to if it is rapid fire against anything that is not t5+ or not an option if it is out of rapid fire, but another ammo type is due to the RoF doubling. Also I would say Kraken would edge out the other ammos if the extra range let it be in double tap range while the others recieved only one shot, but I am not certain if doubling the RoF would counteract wounding on 5s versus wounding on twos, but the ap-2 would make sure the wounds you do get through have a great chance of going unsaved.

It's pretty easy to work this out. Your chance of causing an unsaved wound per hit is just your chance to wound times the chance of your target failing a save.

So, let's look at an S4 AP-1 weapon vs T4 3+. Hellfire wounds T4 1/2 of the time, and a 3+ save fails 2/3 of the time (since the attack is AP-2 total, so they need a 5+). So the chance of a kill is 1/2 * 2/3 = 1/3. Kraken wounds 5/6 of the time and then the save is failed 1/2 of the time, so the chance of a kill is 5/12. So Kraken is 25% better against T4 3+. It's still very slightly better against T4 2+.

Kraken is also very slightly better vs T3 5+.

Re-rolling wounds of 1 doesn't have any effect on which kind of ammunition you should use -- it's a straight 17% improvement in expected kills no matter what.

Hellfire looks a bit better when you're using an AP0 weapon to start with. In this case you prefer it vs T4 2+ and it's the same as Kraken vs T3 5+. Though Kraken is rarely twice as good and so in general you should use Hellfire if doing so gets you an extra shot.

Edit: Oh, I had the effects of Hellfire and Kraken backwards. Flip the names in the above.

I got a little lost so ran the numbers on Excel.

Generally, Hellfire is superior to Kraken

10 Shots from Primaris Bolters:

* Marines = 2.78 vs 2.22 wounds
* Termagants = 4.63 vs 4.44 wounds
* Lychguard = 4.44 vs 1.48 wounds
* Hive Tyrant = 2.78 vs 1.11 wounds
* Mawloc = 2.78 vs 1.48 wounds
* Terminator = 1.85 vs 1.67 wounds

* Never claimed to be good at math!

The main reason for this is that the 2+ to wound is far better - and this is not including the chapter tactics to re-roll wounds of 1 against certain model types. More wounds tests more saves and statistically, volume of shots should win.

If you are using Hellfire vs the short range Vengeance rounds:

* Marines = 2.78 vs 2.77 wounds
* Termagants = 4.63 vs 4.44 wounds
* Lychguard = 4.44 vs 1.85 wounds
* Hive Tyrant = 2.78 vs 1.11 wounds
* Mawloc = 2.78 vs 1.85 wounds
* Terminator = 1.85 vs 2.22 wounds

The Hellfire still out-performs is all cases except the Terminators. Anything with toughness equal to or greater than 5 however - Hellfire wins.

As such, my general rule is this.
* Vehicles - Kraken or Vengeance - depending on range.
* Toughness of 4 or less with 2+ save - Vengeance if in range - unless they have a 4+ invul or better then Hellfire
* Everything else - Hellfire.

I was just thinking. Why are there no sterngaurd primaris? It is essentially the exact same thing as a deathwatch marine.

In theory, no Primairs have been serving for centuries, yet.

Sumilidon wrote:

The Hellfire still out-performs is all cases except the Terminators. Anything with toughness equal to or greater than 5 however - Hellfire wins.

As such, my general rule is this.
* Vehicles - Kraken or Vengeance - depending on range.
* Toughness of 4 or less with 2+ save - Vengeance if in range - unless they have a 4+ invul or better then Hellfire
* Everything else - Hellfire.

Yeah, it is bit of a shame how much no-brainer choice the hellfire is.

Bharring wrote:
In theory, no Primairs have been serving for centuries, yet.

Incorrect. Most Primaris have been serving for at least one century, and considering how quickly certain people can rise in the ranks (how long did it take Logan Grimnar? Or take Decimus Felix - Tetrarch of Ultramar?), I don't think it's unlikely that some Primaris could be of Sternguard rank.

The real reason we see no Sternguard Primaris is the same reason we see no Primaris Scouts, or Primaris Vanguard Veterans, and why Primaris can only get in a minute portion of the Space Marine vehicle pool and are incapable of picking up a lascannon - because Games Workshop have made Primaris separate unit types, instead of as an upgrade to normal units, and they're not fully fleshed out as an army.

 Sgt_Smudge wrote:
Incorrect. Most Primaris have been serving for at least one century, and considering how quickly certain people can rise in the ranks (how long did it take Logan Grimnar? Or take Decimus Felix - Tetrarch of Ultramar?), I don't think it's unlikely that some Primaris could be of Sternguard rank.

Yeah. Considering that there are Primaris captains, there certainly must be Primaris veterans as well...

 Xenomancers wrote:
I was just thinking. Why are there no sterngaurd primaris? It is essentially the exact same thing as a deathwatch marine.

Because GW hasn't been making them long enough to need to come up with ways to sell us more special primaris marines.

 Crimson wrote:

Sumilidon wrote:

The Hellfire still out-performs is all cases except the Terminators. Anything with toughness equal to or greater than 5 however - Hellfire wins.

As such, my general rule is this.
* Vehicles - Kraken or Vengeance - depending on range.
* Toughness of 4 or less with 2+ save - Vengeance if in range - unless they have a 4+ invul or better then Hellfire
* Everything else - Hellfire.

Yeah, it is bit of a shame how much no-brainer choice the hellfire is.

Basically 8th edition in a nutshell.

No brainer choices all around; certain options are head and shoulders above others (Plasma vs melta, others).