Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you: No adverts like this in the forums anymore. Times and dates in your local timezone. Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance. Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely. Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net. If you are already a member then feel free to login now.

Perhaps someone here can point out if I've gone wrong with the math somewhere here. I have, in the past, been a fan of lascannons in IG officer squads as a good way to get multiple Lascannons on the cheap. However, the surviveability of of five guardsmen is, well, poor. So I started looking at using full squads of ten IG to up the ablative armour around the LC.  Now, my initial thought was that IG couldn't approach the usefulness or accuracy of my small LC equipped marine squads (5-6 man las/plas ect ect) but after crunching some numbers I was pleasantly surprised.

 

I compared the following two squads to determine effective fire vs armoured targets:

5 tactical marines w LC, and 10 Guard w LC (very similar points values, with the marines being 5.5% more expensive) both firing at an AV 14 target.

 

Here's the formula I used to determine effectiveness:

1 shot - ( %TH) x (% glance or better) x (% of preventing next round of fire) = %of effective shot

 

I didn't use %destroyed because I feel that when servicing armoured targets any result that prevents the next round of fire should usually result in the shifting of remaining fire fire to alternate targets. So, really, any result but immobilised will do.

 

So here's the two squads run through their numbers (counting weapon destroyed as equivalent to preventing fire):

Marines: 66% x 33% x 83.5% = 18.17% chance of an effective shot

Guard: 50% x 33% x 83.5% = 13.78% chance of an effective shot

 

To my surprise the two squad performed equally, saving only the % difference in basic cost. The IG are 5% cheaper and only perform 5% worse. So it seems that IG heavy weapon fire is better, gun for gun, than I had supposed.  The remaining question is then how do 5 marines compare to 10 guard in terms of survivability?  Anyway, I'm hoping someone can poke holes in this before I get too carried away.

 

Cheers

That's actually 25% less effective, not 5%...

And for your other question, by really simple basic math a Space Marine is at least 2 times tougher to kill than a guardsman by save alone, when you factor in their toughness they are 16% tougher still, and then when you think about the fact that it is easier to hide 5 men than 10, and the existence of far more Ap5+ guns than AP3+ guns, the Marines are at least worth 3 guardsman a piece in terms of survivability.
Of for another simple analysis, 10 IG men rapid firing lasguns will statistically kill 20*.5*.5*.66 IG men or 3.3 Guardsmen. It only kills 20*.5*.33*.33 Space Marines or 1.089 Space Marines. 10 Marines rapid firing bolters kills 20*.66*.66 IG or 8.7 Guardsmen compared to 20*.66*.5*.33 Space Marines or 2.18. Again the Space Marine shows itself to be 3 to 4 times more survivable.

Yup, by my limited experience IG lascannon squads perform horribly compared to marine las squads. They shoot poorly, are much less survivable when you consider their lower toughness and easily by-passable armor save, and heck almost cost as much as the marines.

The only consolation is that most armies pack a hefty array of anti-MEQ weaponry, given the sheer nauseating over-abundance of marine armies everywhere. And when you are being shot at by plasma, melta weapons, rocket launchers, and lascannons etc, the IG squad does end up being more survivable simply because of numbers.

But then again, those irritating marine las/plas squads do not get wiped off the board like IG squads do when podding marines drop and unleash their torrent of rapid-fire bolter shots... *shakes fist*

Geekinthehouse, I take it you play IG. A little bitter?

Cover + cameleoline helps...

Cover + cameleoline + DreadpodFlamer = still dead

@ the_trooper

How could you tell?

Marines are the main thing that pushed me to play a non-MEQ army in the first place...

"And when you are being shot at by plasma, melta weapons, rocket launchers, and lascannons etc, the IG squad does end up being more survivable simply because of numbers."

My argument certainly revolves around the preponderance of MEq lists and prevalence of anti-MEq weaponry in today's 40k. if I actually put enough guard on the table to make that 4-1 ratio work for me then a couple of things happen.

First off, I get the warm fuzzy of putting 230 of the Imperium's finest on the table, which never fails to draw gasps of amazment and consternation from opponents. Second, I actually have enough models on the table to take the inevitable casualties without flinching. And third, by not taking any armour or any squads above 100pts, I take away much of the effectiveness that many lists gain from using multiple high-strength, high-AP, weapons.

Reallly its a matter of negating the tactical advantage represented by the high levels of anti-MEq shooting present in most lists people consider 'effective'. On the downside the list is slow and unresponsive with a max move of 6". However, as the Russian military maxim goes - "quantity has quality all its own."

Cheers

230 guardsmen with a heavy weapon costs a minimum of over 1400 points, and this is with only HBs, no doctrines, las, plasma etc., no armament on the command squads, and no countercharge. In 2000 you might get that many, but you would only maintain a 3-1 ratio or so above marines and maybe field only a similar number of effective heavy weapons. You will also be very slow, unwieldy, and vulnerable to being piecemealed.
Frankly, horde guard is not the way to go anymore. I have played them successfully, but the weaknesses are obvious. Frankly, I don't know how to do guard anymore. But hey, it's your army, do what you want, just remember that the only thing you have that can get some comprability in survivability per point with a SM is a conscript.

The list does have 100 conscripts in it (at 1700pts, with 219 figs), 2 squads of 50 led by independant commissars. I also have three platoons, each with HQ, 2 squads and a remnant, along with three veteran squads and the command squad. for weapons the list has three lascannons, seven missle launchers, 6 Plasma guns and 4 melta guns (not a lot, I know). the bright spot is that all the squads (except officers and remnants) are ten plus, and no squad has more than one heavy, or one heavy and one special weapon. When you look at the list what it means is that the opponent has to kill a LOT more guardsmen to seriously effect your ranged ability. Any way, the list is a WiP and I'll keep hashing out the specifics.

Cheers

Or they could just get into rapid fire range with their bolters and start cutting squads down.

Or they could use their mobile firepower to completely ignore you. Or stay at >24" range and outshoot your ten weapons that can shoot that far.

Or they could just charge you.

Or they could just get into rapid fire range with their bolters and start cutting squads down.

Or they could use their mobile firepower to completely ignore you. Or stay at >24" range and outshoot your ten weapons that can shoot that far.

Or they could just charge you.

They could certainly do all those things, but all are more difficult than you make them look. If they get to w/in rapid fire range I'm not concerned - I have enough models to punch back nicely. As for the mobile firepower I'm not sure how you think this is accomplished - shooting armies are either mostly static, which is fine, or mobile mech armies, which is more of a challenge. The problem mech lists will have, if they want to try and run circles, is how much of the board 200+ figs takes up - there really isn't much for flanks at that point.

As for staying outside of 24" I'm also less than worried. Against static lists 200+ guard should be quite capable of advancing for a turn or two and getting to w/in 24". Further, a standard shooty marine list (like a mauleed list) generally relies on a couple of counterpunch units to prevent enemies from getting to close. Regardless of what those units are they aren't likely equipped to kill 100 conscripts in HtH. Granted, there are lots of units that can take load-outs that make 100 C's look like a tasty snack, but they aren't common in a MEq dominated gaming environment.

This remains true of many HtH units geared to kill 3+ sv opponents. Those units will almost certainly kill the conscripts, but the sheer number of wounds neccessary will give the rest of my force lots of time to redeploy. Even the most attack heavy assault units (say 30 gaunts w ST) only get 90 attacks on the charge, which translates into 20 wounds. I can take 20 wounds on the conscripts and not even break a sweat, especially with the independant commissar's Ld 10.

I am not arguing that this list is unbeatable, far far from it actually. What I am arguing is that it represents a whole host of headaches for armies geared to play in a MEq dominated environment. If you knew before hand what you were playing the list is really easy to gear up for, and resultingly easy to beat. However, when your list all of a sudden loses almost all the effectiveness garnered from its Lascannons, Plasma guns, melta weapons and lance weapons (just to name a few) the game changes. All the points spent on those weapons turn essentially turn into a points deficit. Mostly though, I like it because it feels really 'guardy' somehow to use that many models.

Cheers

So you adopt then the mentality of "throw enough sh*t at a wall and something will stick?" While that is all well and good, having that many models seems more like a liabity than a help IMO. Capt K

It does provide a headache for most lists (though not most lists played) geared to fight MEQs.

Here are the lists that abolutely will donkeystomp it. (in order of greatest donkey stomping)

Zilla nids (Dakkafexes will evaporate a squad a turn themselves, and you don't have nearly enough heavy weapons to seriously damage them, not to mention Raveners munching whole squads by themselves. If you face a Psychic Chior then the whole army will be running off of the board)

Podders - They will bisect your army, rapid fire/flame half off of the board, then deal with the other half while the pods provide cover. Fear librarian insures that your army spends more time running than fighting.

Termie/wings - You have 13 weapons that can actually hurt them and they have mass AssCan and Stormbolter action, and the entire army moves and shoots. Fear Librarian is causing large portions of your lines to break here as well.

Iron Warriors - 4 Possessed Preds will be killing squads at a time and ignoring the vast majority of even your "heavy weapons" while Oblits are morphing heavy bolters to plaster you. Possibly replace a pred or two with a defiler. Oh, and a daemonprince eating squads in close combat.

Maule Marines - Nearly the same as the above, but slightly less effectively in the shooting, but mroe effective in that again Fear is causing problems.

----------

That leaves, what? Seer Council, maybe. Speed Freaks could probably beat it. Might do well against Dark Eldar, but they can probably pull it out by hitting a flank extremely hard.

Still. Not impressed.

! thing I've come to realise (through the HARD way...) with playing massed guard is that with all the clutter on the board, from MCs and terrain to tanks and close combat, LOS may end up being rather limited on the board. And of course distance itself can be an issue. Both the above would result in the situation whereby only a small percentage of your 200+ troops, spread across the table, would be able to shoot at the enemy, who may in turn easily focus the full firepower of the entire army against a section of yours.

Sometimes, more may just not necessarily be better, and quality does matter more than sheer quantity...

Here are the lists that abolutely will donkeystomp it. (in order of greatest donkey stomping)

So your high-level dakka advice cosists of nay-saying any list that doesn't stand an even chance against the best five load outs in the game? Wow. Thanks. That's so helpful. I thought those lists sucked.

And speed freaks, btw, couldn't beat a red-headed step child.

Never mind constructive criticism. Sheesh.

LOS may end up being rather limited on the board. And of course distance itself can be an issue.

This is definitely an issue. Some boards would screw 200 figs royally. I'm working on this, as well as scrunching in some more heavy weapons at AP3+. The trick is really in deploying the list properly, so that it doesn't get in its own way.

Cheers

Posted By Fenris-77 on 06/16/2006 5:23 PM

Marines: 66% x 33% x 83.5% = 18.17% chance of an effective shot

Guard: 50% x 33% x 83.5% = 13.78% chance of an effective shot

 

To my surprise the two squad performed equally, saving only the % difference in basic cost. The IG are 5% cheaper and only perform 5% worse. So it seems that IG heavy weapon fire is better, gun for gun, than I had supposed.  The remaining question is then how do 5 marines compare to 10 guard in terms of survivability?  Anyway, I'm hoping someone can poke holes in this before I get too carried away.

 

Cheers

 

 

 

Actually it's not 5% worse.  If you look at it it is 25% worse. 

According to your calculation:

100 SM squads = 18.17 effective shots.

100 IG squads = 13.78 effective shots.

That means the IG units is at a 25% disadvantage.

Posted By Fenris-77 on 06/23/2006 8:28 AM

Here are the lists that abolutely will donkeystomp it. (in order of greatest donkey stomping)

So your high-level dakka advice cosists of nay-saying any list that doesn't stand an even chance against the best five load outs in the game? Wow. Thanks. That's so helpful. I thought those lists sucked.

And speed freaks, btw, couldn't beat a red-headed step child.

Never mind constructive criticism. Sheesh.

LOS may end up being rather limited on the board. And of course distance itself can be an issue.

This is definitely an issue. Some boards would screw 200 figs royally. I'm working on this, as well as scrunching in some more heavy weapons at AP3+. The trick is really in deploying the list properly, so that it doesn't get in its own way.

Cheers

I don't have high level dakka advice.  I have basic low level this idea will not work advice.
Speed Freaks would have a really good chance of eating your list alive.  That should tell you something.

Can you think of a list that this will have good odds on?  Necrons of nearly any type will beat it.  Horde nidz should be able to chew it up quite effectively.  Can't think of any type of chaos that will have difficulties with it.  Eldar & Dark Eldar might have difficulties, as they are generally heavily focused on MEQs and their anti-MEQ is not quite up to snuff against hordes.  I could be wrong on that one.  Mechanized guard or Armored Company shouldn't have a problem. 

Maybe footslogging orks?  I'm not sure how that one would end out.  Moving back and rapid firing your lasguns may allow you to win out in that fight.  Unless they were shooty orks.  They would definitely outshoot you, and could possibly out horde you too, with 3 point grots providing screens and all.

Seriously, it is just not up to snuff.

I've seen similar lists survive nids and marines. It's about how you focus fire. Even 10 marines stop liking their odds when they have to deal with 48 lasguns at close range. (36 wounds) Against hordes, the moment they get in 18" range, the forward elements move forward and rapidfire while the units supporting fire as well. This tends to mess them up.

Yes, this list has weaknesses, but it isn't that horrible. The fact that a similarly pointed unit of guard to marines is 25% less effective bothers me. They don't have the ability to make up for this with numbers thanks to being 6pts/model along with having more expensive upgrades. :/

If the marine player is letting himself get shot with 48 lasguns at close range, he deserves to lose. Like I have said before, we assume competancy on the part of both players. I have seen lists very similar to his, and he suffers very much from a horrific lack of heavy weapons for his model numbers, and his idea that a bunch of 10 plus units are going to do anything when someone ties up a firing line squad with assault marines/raptors/scorpions/warp spiders/ravenors, etc. is laughable. It is a weak list, and when told so, he decided to become petulant. It's harsh advice to be told your list sucks, but you either provide good reasons why it doesn't or you change it. Acting dismissive isn't the way to handle it.

Posted By midnight on 06/27/2006 2:57 PM
Even 10 marines stop liking their odds when they have to deal with 48 lasguns at close range. (36 wounds)

Your math sucks, 48 rapid firing lasguns is 13 wounds before armor saves so on average only 5 dead marines. Yeah that is great and all but much less that 36 wound, 12 dead marines.

96 shots, 48 hit, need 5s to wound... 15 wound. Yep, I was off on my math. I made it 2/3 instead of 1/3. Yeesh, I was using pulse rifles by habit.

I stand corrected. 48 Pulse rifles kills 12 marines. I should have noticed considering I am used to killing 3 with a squad of 12.

Zilla nids (Dakkafexes will evaporate a squad a turn themselves,

I doubt that an 8 shot-model will kill a 10-man squad in one round. Not even with living ammo and twin-linked.
Also, that gun has an 18" range, AP zilch. The guard's heavy weapons at the back of the DZ will have some time to shoot, and his list can sustain massive casualties before its effectiveness drops notably. Add some cover and the fact that he can concentrate his fire on a few gunslinger dolls, and he does indeed stand a chance.

Podders -

Termie/wings -

Iron Warriors -

Podders will do what they do regardless of your comp. The others will shoot at you regardless of your comp. Having less bodies is not going to prevent that. Yes, a couple of heavy weapons more would still be nice.

What about CoD? He may not be able to fit all his units into cover, but I think it might still even the odds considerably...

Posted By DarkHellion on 06/27/2006 3:39 PM
If the marine player is letting himself get shot with 48 lasguns at close range, he deserves to lose.

Is that so? What if he wants to get into cc? Also, one of the cons against this list was that Marines would flame and rapid fire it to death - I understand they need to be in rapid fire range then. I agree that it needs more heavy weapons and some tweaking but the principle doesn't sound *that* bad.

You do realize that 48 lasguns is 5 squads.

That's five squads that need to be within 12" of the marines (all of them do), 50 models, each taking up an inch of space in close order.

Furthermore, the marine can easily get within rapid fire of one squad while remaining a goodly distance from your others. Unless of course, you pack them in close order. In which case he drops really close in, flames 4-5 of your squads, kills half your gaurdsmen, and doesn't even care that he loses the squad, as they made points.

I think I am loosing brain cells reading some of the slowed stuff put forth in this thread. If you can get 48 lasguns into rapid fire range of a singular marine squad, without exposing yourself to massive amounts of return fire, the marine player is obviously either completely slowed, or using the squad to lead you away, because the situation is so ridiculous that almost no other explaination fits.
My god people, how hard is it to assume competancy from both sides?

Posted By The Happy Anarchist on 06/29/2006 1:26 PM
You do realize that 48 lasguns is 5 squads.

Yes.

That's five squads that need to be within 12" of the marines (all of them do), 50 models, each taking up an inch of space in close order.

Indeed it is. I was thinking of the proposed 230 bodies-list and Marines dropping close by. I am aware of the marines potentially doing horrendous damage when they arrive but it is not far-fetched to assume that several other IG squads would be within 18" (move + rf). Or perhaps the odd heavy weapon is a bit further away and we're only talkingabout 40 lasguns. Don't get so fixated on exactly that number.

Furthermore, the marine can easily get within rapid fire of one squad while remaining a goodly distance from your others.

Yes he can. Then again, this is rather theoretical, as the guardsmen can still move, one marine squad might not get its full effectiveness due to overkill, or there might still be some remnants around in addition to the ones who move closer.

Posted By DarkHellion on 06/29/2006 4:23 PM
I think I am loosing brain cells reading some of the slowed stuff put forth in this thread.

Believe me, you don?t want me to reply to this underhanded behaviour. Or was that supposed to be an argument?

If you can get 48 lasguns into rapid fire range of a singular marine squad, without exposing yourself to massive amounts of return fire, the marine player is obviously either completely slowed, or using the squad to lead you away, because the situation is so ridiculous that almost no other explaination fits.

Hmm. With so many bodies around in the first place, some LoS-blocking terrain, some guys jumping out of Chimeras ( who are to my knowledge at least immune to rf and flamers) and so on I would not discount it a priori. I grant you that it would be a major mistake and better than the drinking bouts on Emperor?s day for the IG commander though.

My god people, how hard is it to assume competancy from both sides?

Competancy has little to do with it. If you want your Marines to get into cc, you obviously need to get into rf range some time with some models. It might not be five complete squads, I read 48 guns just as synonymous for ?lots of?. Also, you appear to assume incompetancy on the part of the IG commander.

Or if you want to get marines into CC you could use things that don't move at the absolutely sluggish 6" per turn, such as Assault Marines, Bikes, or raging Blood Angels, but you know, that would be smart, and well frankly competatant, and we couldn't possibly assume that a marine player would be such.
I have played horde guard before, to a second place at an RT by 1 point, I know the army very well, and you never fire 48 lasguns at anything except maybe when fired by the bs 2 Conscipt squad, and even then you kill a grand total of 4 marines, whoop-dee-freaking-doo.
Honestly, think about the geometrical difficulty of maneuvering 4' (over a meter for you metric types) worth of bases into 12" of a singular 5-10" long formation whilst maintaining some semblance of coherent firing positions. It's a mindbogglingly rare thing, and if it occurs once in the30 turns of large tourney, without being one of the two scenarios I listed, it would be considered rare.
Frankly, if you want people to regard you with respect, stop posting nonsensical tripe.