Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you: No adverts like this in the forums anymore. Times and dates in your local timezone. Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance. Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely. Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net. If you are already a member then feel free to login now.

http://www.tabletopwire.com/toys-board-games-and-dice-included-in-proposed-tariffs/

Well we've dodged the collective bullet until now, but it looks like there may be a fairly major price increase (especially for board gamers) coming soon

Toys, board games and dice are on the list of Chinese imports that President Trump has proposed for additional tariffs of up to 25%. The list was released today by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. Trump proposed the tariffs after trade negotiations with China fell through on Friday.

Board games and dice are included under the subheading: 9504.90.60. “Chess, checkers, backgammon, darts and o/table and parlor games played on boards of a special design and parts thereof; poker chips and dice.”

Toys are under 9503.00.00. “Toys, including riding toys o/than bicycles, puzzles, reduced scale models.”

Public hearings on the proposal will start June 17. During this time companies and individuals can provide input on tariff levels to be imposed. Requests to exclude specific subheading will also be taken. The tariffs could be implemented any time after June 24.

this could be really bad news for KS companies who haven't left sufficient margin to pay the extra taxes, and if they do come in i'd expect some projects to outright fail, and others ask for extra cash.

(It might also lead to more pack and ship direct from China, but I don't know enough about US law to know if that would avoid the problem?, I have the feeling individuals have a pretty high personal allowance compared to the UK/EU, but if so why aren't more companies using this option already?)

 OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote:
(It might also lead to more pack and ship direct from China, but I don't know enough about US law to know if that would avoid the problem?, I have the feeling individuals have a pretty high personal allowance compared to the UK/EU, but if so why aren't more companies using this option already?)

IIRC it is a very high threshold before that becomes a problem, "importing." The big barrier I can see is that US-international shipping is very expensive, so it's more efficient to ship them in shipping containers then mail them to addresses domestically.

...I think. I'm certainly no expert.

It may prompt companies to do casting locally - this could drag on for a long time. There are still plastic casting companies in the USA, after all.

I have at least a few dozen unused dice that I've accumulated over the years from various things, so this is great news for me in the short term - I can sell all these dice for anything up to one or two £ for the entire lot once this trade war starts to bite.

It would probably hurt small companies disproportionately. When my press was trying to print domestically (because we believe in such stuff), we found that for a small print run it cost 10x what it cost to print overseas. We still print what we can locally, but we can't justify making larger objects here.

It will probably force smaller companies to do at least one of the following:
-risk larger print runs to get to the same margin
-take a lower margin, meaning making less money as owners/employees, or needing to fire people
-pass on the production price increase to customers

It sucks that it's expensive to domestically print things, but I think that it will likely just hurt anyone who doesn't have a substantial infrastructure. Larger companies like GW might be able to adjust their production chain (with time), but small ones are at the whims of their overhead, and probably operating with margins thin enough that 25% increase in manufacturing costs could really hurt them.

 spiralingcadaver wrote:
It would probably hurt small companies disproportionately. When my press was trying to print domestically (because we believe in such stuff), we found that for a small print run it cost 10x what it cost to print overseas. We still print what we can locally, but we can't justify making larger objects here.

It will probably force smaller companies to do at least one of the following:
-risk larger print runs to get to the same margin
-take a lower margin, meaning making less money as owners/employees, or needing to fire people
-pass on the production price increase to customers

It sucks that it's expensive to domestically print things, but I think that it will likely just hurt anyone who doesn't have a substantial infrastructure. Larger companies like GW might be able to adjust their production chain (with time), but small ones are at the whims of their overhead, and probably operating with margins thin enough that 25% increase in manufacturing costs could really hurt them.

Especially considering GW only manufactures a few things overseas and mostly works out of their nottingham factory for the important stuff.

Yeah, I was pretty sure GW had been shifting to doing a lot of manufacturing in-house, but didn't know how much.

I don't know of any major HIPS manufacturers that a medium-small company would have access to, that don't work with Asia, though.

Personally I don't think there's much to say on this that wouldn't violate the politics ban. It's almost like politics impacts every aspect of your life directly, and it only works to pretend it doesn't when you're one of the lucky people who can ignore the negative impacts.

When the tariffs for steel went out, the 100% american owned and operated industrial factory I work for saw a 25% increase in our overheads, even though we buy most of our steel domestic and almost none from china meets our standards - weirdly ALL the prices just suddenly went up! When the government shut down, we lost almost half a million dollars worth of work.

It is the height of naivete to think that domestic producers won't respond to newfound demand by cranking up prices to pretty much match the price of the tariff-affected foreign goods, if the domestic industries are able to come anywhere near being able to meet the demand.

And now I guess it's going to impact people in the miniature gaming world as well. Can't say I'm surprised, can't say I'm not sympathetic. Having a business venture shafted by a trade war you might not necessarily even be a part of still ruin your bottom line.

 spiralingcadaver wrote:
Yeah, I was pretty sure GW had been shifting to doing a lot of manufacturing in-house, but didn't know how much.

I don't know of any major HIPS manufacturers that a medium-small company would have access to, that don't work with Asia, though.

DP9 did their plastics in the USA, though the molds were made in Hong Kong.

the_scotsman wrote:
...When the tariffs for steel went out, the 100% american owned and operated industrial factory I work for saw a 25% increase in our overheads, even though we buy most of our steel domestic and almost none from china meets our standards - weirdly ALL the prices just suddenly went up! ... It is the height of naivete to think that domestic producers won't respond to newfound demand by cranking up prices to pretty much match the price of the tariff-affected foreign goods, if the domestic industries are able to come anywhere near being able to meet the demand.

I don't know how parallel processed resource prices are to manufacturing prices. Honestly (this isn't a rhetorical argument). I don't expect anything good to come of this for consumers or small miniatures companies, but I don't know how directly or indirectly this will affect prices.

 spiralingcadaver wrote:

the_scotsman wrote:
...When the tariffs for steel went out, the 100% american owned and operated industrial factory I work for saw a 25% increase in our overheads, even though we buy most of our steel domestic and almost none from china meets our standards - weirdly ALL the prices just suddenly went up! ... It is the height of naivete to think that domestic producers won't respond to newfound demand by cranking up prices to pretty much match the price of the tariff-affected foreign goods, if the domestic industries are able to come anywhere near being able to meet the demand.

I don't know how parallel processed resource prices are to manufacturing prices. Honestly (this isn't a rhetorical argument). I don't expect anything good to come of this for consumers or small miniatures companies, but I don't know how directly or indirectly this will affect prices.

It probably won't affect prices at all, or much, at least to end-users. All you're likely to see is companies cutting down on overhead costs and employees to try and continue delivering the same product at close to the same price. If the end user does feel an impact it will be companies taking fewer risks, making fewer new designs, and instead sticking to what they know will sell until the period of instability passes.

Maximize the impact to the least important parts of the business (the people that work there) to minimize the impact to capital.

The gaming bubble is close to bursting as it is.
Rising prices by a margin of 25% or more is the needle to the balloon. If anyone thinks that companies will just absorb that cost by reducing output, layoffs or other means is deluded.

Rising costs are always passed onto the consumer, and as stated above, it won't stop companies from jacking prices anyways. As always, it'll be the customer that will absorb the cost.

Consider the FLGS situation, too. Any price increase for the game companies will affect the stores selling the product.

Globalization was a mistake, and relying on China for cheap labor was not sustainable as China becomes more of a world leader. However, a sudden, significant price increase could be a shock that destroys the industry. While I'd like more companies to move away from China and focus on local manufacturing, the change needs to happen more gradually.

 Ghool wrote:
The gaming bubble is close to bursting as it is.
Rising prices by a margin of 25% or more is the needle to the balloon. If anyone thinks that companies will just absorb that cost by reducing output, layoffs or other means is deluded.

Rising costs are always passed onto the consumer, and as stated above, it won't stop companies from jacking prices anyways. As always, it'll be the customer that will absorb the cost.

Also with Asmodee taking over FFG and CMON, we no longer have the individuals who have been driving a large portion of the board and skirmish game growth in control.
Now we are at the whims of a distributor, not the creative peoples.

 Sqorgar wrote:
Globalization was a mistake, and relying on China for cheap labor was not sustainable as China becomes more of a world leader. However, a sudden, significant price increase could be a shock that destroys the industry. While I'd like more companies to move away from China and focus on local manufacturing, the change needs to happen more gradually.

Hmmm..i think we're entering a political debate here...

 Malika2 wrote:

Hmmm..i think we're entering a political debate here...

This is a manufacturing debate. Using cheap third world labor keeps costs down, but only temporarily. Remember when we used to get all our cheap electronics made in Japan? And then South Korea? And then China? India is probably next. As these countries improve their conditions, they become more expensive, and we just move our factories to the next country. I don't think this is sustainable over a long period of time, as the true costs of goods are hidden out of sight, in pollution, poor working conditions, waste, and exploitation. That true cost can not be hidden forever, and within our lifetime, the entire manufacturing industry will almost certainly collapse because of it.

I read somewhere that just one of those massive shipping vessels puts out the same amount of pollution as all the cars in America. There's no way we'll allow that to go on forever, and the new ships that must be built will be expensive and the price of transpacific shipping will skyrocket. Even if China doesn't crash, something else will. The entire manufacturing pipeline is built on borrowed time.

At some point, the board game and miniature industry is going to crash due to manufacturing concerns. Probably very soon. These tariffs could potentially hasten the inevitable, but I think moving manufacturing to something more sustainable is a necessary step.

 Sqorgar wrote:
This is a manufacturing debate. Using cheap third world labor keeps costs down, but only temporarily. Remember when we used to get all our cheap electronics made in Japan? And then South Korea? And then China? India is probably next. As these countries improve their conditions, they become more expensive, and we just move our factories to the next country. I don't think this is sustainable over a long period of time, as the true costs of goods are hidden out of sight, in pollution, poor working conditions, waste, and exploitation. That true cost can not be hidden forever, and within our lifetime, the entire manufacturing industry will almost certainly collapse because of it.

I read somewhere that just one of those massive shipping vessels puts out the same amount of pollution as all the cars in America. There's no way we'll allow that to go on forever, and the new ships that must be built will be expensive and the price of transpacific shipping will skyrocket. Even if China doesn't crash, something else will. The entire manufacturing pipeline is built on borrowed time.

At some point, the board game and miniature industry is going to crash due to manufacturing concerns. Probably very soon. These tariffs could potentially hasten the inevitable, but I think moving manufacturing to something more sustainable is a necessary step.

This is a great post, and I think you are exactly right.

Not just the gaming industry, but all of manufacturing will collapse? That's is some serious doom-saying there.

 Albino Squirrel wrote:
Not just the gaming industry, but all of manufacturing will collapse? That's is some serious doom-saying there.

Not immediately, it won't.
Manufacturing relies upon cheap and inexpensive labor, and the ability to cut costs to make the product as cheap as possible. A developing country proves to be the most inexpensive route to getting products made. And there are only so many developing countries left where it's possible for manufacturing and a dense enough population to support that sector with cheap workers.

There are only so many countries left to exploit, and if the costs become more than manufacturers will accept by producing goods in China, then the country of manufacture will move. I feel though that the move to more automation and AI could alleviate some of the high costs of manufacture.

It's a long term problem that can be ignored for only so long, or yes, the industry will collapse.

He made a lot of good points, particularly the fact that cheap labor for manufacturing jobs is a short term fix...eventually those people get used to a better lifestyle and demand more money for their services....we'll need to discover life on another planet to exploit or automate the hell out of everything to keep prices as artificially low as they are now.

Our manufacturing infrastructure in the US has been slowly decaying since corporations started farming that work from 2nd and 3rd world countries and pocketing the profits...the jobs have been drying up for decades and it may not completely collapse in our lifetime, but it will certainly look a lot different than it does now...automation, robotics and software will replace cheap labor even more than they do now...even taking over many jobs that are considered specialist today (the trucking/long haul transportation industry is about to lose out to self-driving vehicles, for instance). India, South and Central America, as well as Africa may be exploited (more) next....though shipping from India to the US will cost more than from China and southeast Asia, and China is getting more and more cagey with maritime borders and shipping lanes in that part of the world and could cause headaches for commercial shipping of imports and exports to and from the US and India.

The market will adjust, and if all of the tariffs get passed on to the consumers, then I imagine people (in general) will be buying fewer games, etc. and the small companies that cant absorb that loss in sales, or profit, then they will go away.

For miniatures, if nothing else, 3d printing raises its head as a potential solution.

Albino Squirrel wrote:Not just the gaming industry, but all of manufacturing will collapse? That's is some serious doom-saying there.

I'm saying there is a hidden cost to manufacturing that we are not currently paying. We use labor, energy, and resources in an unsustainable way, and one day, we'll have to pay that cost. I think small industries that rely on outsourcing to China, like board and miniature games, are going to feel the brunt of the force as trade relations sour and we start realizing the true cost of goods.

For instance, how much does trash cost? Because we aren't really paying that cost, we aren't really factoring it into the price of goods. But once you've put together a model, you've got lots of little sprue bits and laminated cardboard that requires garbage men and trucks to transport it to ever growing landfills that, in some cases, are larger than many towns. You've got the Great Pacific Gyre, which is a massive landmass made of discarded plastic in the middle of the ocean that is bigger than New York state. Recycling is a relatively energy inefficient way to save resources, and there's a limit to how much can be recycled (recycled paper, for example, can't be recycled). Last I heard, only aluminum could be recycled perfectly. At some point, we will reach a point were we have to actually find a solution to our trash problem, rather than just ignoring it. So what is the true cost of trash and when will we be expected to pay it?

And that's just one part of manufacturing. Pretty much every step along the manufacturing pipeline is working on borrowed time. We use labor that we can't keep, resources we can't replace, produce toxins and pollutants we can't get rid of, use countries we can keep happy, and produce trash we can't dispose of. We can't just fix one problem in isolation. The entire pipeline must be fixed, top to bottom, to create a sustainable manufacturing industry - and frankly, nobody wants to be the first to do that because it is more expensive and thus capitalism will ensure their early demise.

Carlovonsexron wrote:For miniatures, if nothing else, 3d printing raises its head as a potential solution.

I think self manufacturing (of which 3D printing is a subset of) will be one such solution. It will put the burden of manufacturing on the consumer, so transport, resources, and labor are essentially removed from the equation. This will ultimately help the environment and the cost of manufacturing, but at the same time, the piracy of non-physical goods will become more important to the economy ("You wouldn't download a car"). This could potentially lead to some legal issues as companies try to convince us that we never actually own anything, just rent the idea of it. So this is really where the future of manufacturing will be, but it is going to get really messy and we may end up losing most or all of our consumer rights over it.

Well due date for written submissions to raise concerns over certain items are on June 10th.

also arent a lot of the consumables for 3d printing from china? (i should go take a look at my resin bottle)

 Sqorgar wrote:

 Malika2 wrote:

Hmmm..i think we're entering a political debate here...

I read somewhere that just one of those massive shipping vessels puts out the same amount of pollution as all the cars in America. There's no way we'll allow that to go on forever, and the new ships that must be built will be expensive and the price of transpacific shipping will skyrocket.

That was the case 10 years ago but isn't anymore. Simple google search shows that the amount of sulfur in the gas used has been steadily cut down internationally and some are switching away from gasoline to Natural Gas.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Desubot wrote:
Well due date for written submissions to raise concerns over certain items are on June 10th.

also arent a lot of the consumables for 3d printing from china? (i should go take a look at my resin bottle)

Yes. Almost all come from china as the US produced stuff is 5x the cost.

I can't feel sorry for the companies. After all if you can't build in your own country, you deserve what you get then.

After all, you are robbing fellow country man/woman of work.

Oh well, such is life. Use to GW prices, so no big deal. Been doing it for years with high priced games.

FWIW over 20 years ago I was involved in a DoD analysis to determine how we could manufacture today ('90's) versus the '40's. Our results were absolutely mind blowing and horrifying at the same time.

7 years. Due to those things that we outsource, if all imports were stopped. It would take us 7 years to retool our fairly defunct manufacturing sector in the States to get us back into the height of our WW2 production levels. There were some issues like things being more technical with mini computers running most things, even in cars for example, that we did not have to deal with as we used carburetors in WW2 era.

This is one of the problems that many countries have, we literally exploit poor countries to get things made on the cheap to sell for high profit. The poor country eventually gains a bustling economy and will no longer allow use of cheap labor. My wife and I discuss this everytime we go on vacation down to the DR or Mexico. We feel bad that we are exploiting them, so we tip very well, but we do not feel bad enough to stop going.

I have no idea how far into debt we are with China, and I am sure that these trade agreements are, hopefully, going to help eliminate the trade deficit. I will be honest, I do not know if China can call those markers in and put our economy in the outhouses... but if they can, I think that we might want to tread a little lighter with them. Just my thoughts.

I'm [retty sure the US is the highest holder of Chinese foreign debt, so its more complicated than you think...

I will point out that this all these Trade wars are hurting US manufacturers who need to import their raw materials. The US tarif on Canadian steel & aluminium needed by many US manufactures. The US administration's trade war is causing US goods to raise in price just as much as foreign goods. Sadly current US leadership does not seem to understand how these heavy tariffs cause ripple effect not just thru the US economy but the world economy.

China is also a major importer of raw goods and food from america, and now the US government is going to start getting into the mess of having to buy the unsold food stuffs farmers are no longer able to sell.

If how the trade dispute with Canada went is any sign, I don't expect the best for America in regards to China.It could take years for future administrations to undo the damage being done to america's economy. Also with how with china we are dealing with already manufactured goods, consumers will feel the effects with these tarifs much fast.

If my memory serves me correctly, there was an enconomic impact just a few years ago with rising Chinese wages/modernization making pre-painted miniatures more expensive.

While the RPG sector still has some pre-painted miniatures nowadays, they aren't as pervasive and cheap as they were back when Wizkids was doing likes of MageKnight and D&D was putting out their own pre-painted minis.

We'll see some effect on the cost on the boardgame, book and boardgame mini front. Not sure GW will be affected much, but I suspect they will hike their prices all the same.