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Do you think about your collection and plan purchases in advance and then stick to the plan or do you waffle back and forth until finally making a choice constantly readjusting your plan?

Or do you just do whatever the heck you want and buy things you like and then fit the models into your collection? Or are you the guy with a closet full of OOP models with zero plans to assemble and paint them?

I make plans. But as we all know, no plan survives contact with the enemy. So things get adjusted.

Also, for long term plans (like building a battle company) the project is going to span multiple editions, and model wave releases.

For more focused things, like building to an army list, experience might change the goals. Early game play might show a lack of mobility, so some fast units might be subbed into the plan.

And bundle deals and boxes can also skew things. If one comes out that I was planning on buying parts of anyway, I might grab the whole big thing and find a use for the extras.

I'm the guy with a closet full of OOP models and every INTENTION to build and paint them.

Whether or not that ever happens...

As for purchasing, I don't buy much any more and when I do it's usually intended for one of my existing armies.

I used to be a lot more of a completionist, meta chaser, etc and bought way more than I really use. I've since focused in a bit and aim more towards the middle with an eye towards flexibility.

For 40k, I'll tend to start with a 1000 point goal that doesn't have a lot of duplicates. Once I get a good baseline, I'll buy second copies of stuff that are meta relevant and as the meta changes that kind of evolves into a 2000+ collection of pretty playable stuff without too much that sits on shelves or piles up in shame.

I do like stuff that's flexible over optimal in terms of extra purchases these days. When something becomes good I like to have some of it ready to go and then if I really need more I only need to get another box instead of shifting to a whole new army. Paradoxically I'm also doing less "deal" buying now. I'll pay for shipping rather than overbuy to meet a quota and have a box of something I don't really want. Just trying to be more mindful of what I actually play with.

Something between 1 and 2. My Nurgle forces started with a plan in 5th, but they've grown like a tumor since then and there are loads of half assembled or half painted models in that collection.

With my Orks I'm sticking quite closely to my plans, it's a consequence of the above. This year I've planned to do some fast attack units and that's what I'm doing.

Usually it's GW that's messing up plans because of throwing models out or expanding on stuff that fits nicely to what I have.

I like to pick a theme, get distracted, go back, get distracted again.

Buy some models, build them, and then fret about color schemes for 3 editions.

I let my games decide.

So I'm starting with a Drukhari Boarding patrol at 500 points, and Drukhari is one of may main armies, so I hope to grow it to 3k.

I bought complimentary boxes to build my based collection- the Big Poisonblade Box, the start collecting Wych box, Blood of the Phoenix, and Piety and Pain.

I've painted the 500 point Space Lane Raider detachment that I'm using in the Boarding Actions League. Those aren't Crusade games, so I play objectives as if I'm playing matched, but I still track RP, XP (including Marked for Greatness) and Raid Spoils. If I capture the territory that buffs Incubi, that's would I would buy; I already have a unit of them from Blood of the Phoenix, so instead of buying them, I just paint them. But if instead I captured the territory that buffs Scourges, they're the unit I paint or buy.

My GSC will be starting as a bunch of Purestrains. If they kill a human in close combat, I add a Brood Brother to the roster; once I've accumulated enough brood brothers to field a unit, that's what I buy/paint. Any brood brothers that sit out two consecutive games generate an Acolyte... Once I accumulate enough Acolytes to field a unit, they're what I'll paint/buy.

Other armies have campaign-based narrative triggers. So if the Guard uncover the GSC, an Inquisitor will show up with an Agents detachment, and based on the scope of the threat and the success of the investigation, additional guard detachments can be requisitioned as reinforcements. But if the Sisters discover the GSC, the subsequent investigation might requisition a detachment of Sisters.

I won't go through every faction, but you get the idea. Many of my armies are growing/ have grown from a single Kill Team.

Mostly some sort of plan.

Option 4, but it's not much of a secret.