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Based on similar conquests in 40k Lore.

The IOM would love Earth since there's no psykers or mutants here. But modern Earth is primitive compared to the many spacefaring systems in 40k.

Well, none of us would be Governor. The Imperium would provide that, and indeed replace our own bureaucracy entirely with the Administratum.

I don’t think we’d rapidly become a Forgeworld or be mined into oblivion. First, we’re a large, self sustaining human population, which means recruits for the Guard. For natural resources we’ve an entirely virgin solar system for strip mining and that. Especially with interplanetary travel being utterly trivial to them, and sealed Hab domes again being a trivial matter.

We do have an industrial base, and the capacity to learn more advanced stuff. Because we’re not Thick, we just haven’t made certain discoveries. But you show modern human engineers how to make say, anti-grav plating, and we almost certainly could.

Tithe? Who knows. We really don’t know how it’s set in-universe, so we can’t make a guess here. But I’d imagine arms would be a natural fit. Possibly using materials harvested from the other moons and planets around us.

Still a chance of the current population being shipped off world though, and then the planet being dedicated to Something Else. Being relatively un polluted, perhaps we’d become a Resort World. Or, given we have varying environments (desert, arctic, swamp etc) it would be given over as a Guard Training World. Doesn’t matter where the regiments attending came from, Earth has environments the recruits likely haven’t encountered before, the better to prepare them for defending the wider Imperium.

The good news is that we wouldnt be around for very long.

Matt Ward's indepth knowledge of Grey Knights would doom our planet to Exterminatus.

What we tithe is dependent on what the IoM needs.

We could be ramped up into an agri world, providing food stuff and soldiers. Or set up for production and manufacturing on the way to a hive world.

Heck, due to absence or pychers/mutants, we might be declared a shrine world, as obviously the Emperor has protected us from Chaos.

We'd be yet another Civilised World crushed and assimilated.

We might be considered remarkable for how relatively unpolluted our world is by 40k standards and how diverse the biomes are, but in the end it wouldn't matter much.

Depends a lot on how intact the world is after the IoM finished conquering us (we will likely try to resist) and what the IoM needs, which in turn is dependent on what is nearby and how close we are to stable warp routes and established sub-sectors.

Are we in the middle of nowhere? then we can expect a minimal tithe because to be blunt we would be mostly useless to the IoM and likely it even forgets we exist (best outcome really).

Are we near an established Hive World? then we likely become an agriworld. Are we near a warzone? then expect heavy tithes, specially in manpower.

I don't believe there is a path to become a hive world or forge world (not this century at least).
Paradise world is possible but only if we are both near an established sub-sector and away from any warzone.

I dunno that we’d resist in any meaningful way.

Sure, we’ve ICBMs, enough to wipe our idiot selves out several times over. But do we have any reliable surface to orbit missiles? That can strike with anything like the range of Imperial Ships?

Because if we don’t? If we seem even a little bit fighty? Kiss goodbye to our existing satellite network (space superiority fighters), and any major military installations. Because there’s precisely Two Thirds Of Fifty Percent Of Absolutely feth All we can do about a spaceborne enemy.

For all out technological might, it would be like Aztecs vs Conquistadors all over again, without even the local numerical advantage. To quote War of the Worlds? Bows and Arrows against the Lightning.

Remember also that First Contact would, statistically, be made by a Rogue Trader, who’ll have opened negotiations with many planets in the past. Even if they’ve single, modestly size ship and not a fleet? They’ve still the same range and firepower advantage to ruin us in an utterly one sided scrap. So even if negotiations fail or are point blank refused? We’re screwed.

There would be other impacts. But they’re ones we can’t really discuss on Dakka.

And yet the Aztecs fought the Conquistadors anyway. They lost, but they went down fighting. So we will fight if nothing else out of spite, it is human nature and there is always the chance we might win, war is an inherently chaotic endeavor in which nothing is truly certain.

And the Spanish did eventually lost Mexico, so getting conquered doesn't mean we will remain conquered forever.

It would here. The numbers just are not in our favour. We have no way to fight a space borne foe, let alone one with the power of the Imperium.

Once you’re part of the Imperium? That’s it. Even if you rebel, you’re screwed. Imperial Justice may not be instant (Gue’la Worlds in the Tau Empire), but it’s pretty certain.

Honestly, with total orbital dominance to knacker military staging points, how do you think we’d be able to mount any kind of defence? All our military production easily and systematically taken out, without a single pair of enemy boots on the ground. How long would public will be in favour of resisting when there is not real resistance?

And even if we did rebel? Would it even be our culture at that point? Because to do so successfully means getting some kind of ships, and learning how to manage their systems. That takes time, and ritualised learning. Which means absorbing existing Imperial culture of one flavour or another.

When we see an external culture easily exploiting the planets we’re yet to properly reach, how do we cope with the realisation of our utter impotence?

How do we coordinate military efforts effectively when the attacker has the time and opportunity to take out every satellite?


Tell me. How can we, as we are, right now, mount any kind of defence?

It wasn't so long ago that people made the same arguments regarding air superiority, the Taliban still found ways to find and abuse gaps in the apparently insurmountable American air superiority. The scale is bigger but the logic is the same, you spread out your forces, find ways to hide, find weaknesses in the otherwise insurmountable enemy superiority and sacrifice absurd amounts of lives in hoping the enemy gets tired and backs off.

And to be honest the IoM has thousands of different fires going on at every moment and increasing, most of them of much higher importance than us. The IoM absurdly outnumber us on paper, but in practice there are limits to how much they can commit to a random backwater planet. So, depending on the general state of the galaxy (basically the closer to modern 40k, the easier), we could eventually tire them out.

I cannot tell you that we would find a way to win, but I can tell you we would sacrifice absurd amounts of lives in the attempt, and with some luck we might pull if off.

Our formal militaries would be crushed immediately. We have no void shields which means every meaningful military installation or asset (like warships) would be destroyed from orbit. Void shields are why Titans don't just get lance struck to oblivion.

It is correct that we would keep fighting a guerrilla war for a long time though. People would keep putting up trouble until the Imperium finally has it crushed. They would not give up, our planet is too rich and unspoiled, worlds that are perfectly habitable like this with no xenos activity, no chaos corruption and so on are precious.

But in practice, it's a war that would be fought by the Arbites for much longer than anything else.

Trouble with Guerrilla war? The Imperium Doesn’t Value Life As We Do.

The Taliban was able to hide out in caves because the allied forces didn’t much fancy sending their troops into death traps.

The Imperium? Absolutely will. And thanks to the humble Lasgun? With weapons that are all but immune to environmental issues.

Or, it’ll bombard the cave network from orbit if needs be and it’s considered the most efficient method.

Would casualties be inflicted on them? Yeah. Obviously. But in an anything even vaguely approaching a meaningful or impactful manner? Absolutely not.

Afghanistan also defeated the Soviets who didn't particularly value life. Being genocidal doesn't magically solve assymetrical warfare.

And the allied forces literally developed anti-bunker warheads to kill Taliban in their caves. Caves are not the reason why the Taliban won.

Cost and the home public opinion.

Two things the wider Imperium isn’t especially fussed about.

Nor, worryingly, are Civilian Casualties.

War Crimes. We’re talking our standard of War Crimes up the wazoo.

And who, with our native military industrial complex overwhelmed (either outright destroyed or entirely taken over at source), exactly is continuing to arm these Guereillas? Where are they getting the arms and ammo from?

When you’re struggling to scrap up ammo, and your usual external supporters no longer control resources, and you’re seeing your foe just casually annihilating villages and towns, how long can you maintain any kind of fighting spirit? How long until it becomes absolutely crystal clear that You Have Lost? That you never stood a ghost of a chance. That for all intents and purposes, your foe’s resources are infinite?

I’m also going to raise a salient point, albeit one we can’t discuss further. How would any religion that considers Earth and Man a special creation survive finding out that we evidently didn’t originate here, and that there is a far, far more powerful human civilisation that’s just come a-knocking.

The Imperium struggles with insurgencies constantly, even ones with inferior technology to its own military. We could cause them trouble, but more nuisance than actual threat.

 Ashiraya wrote:
Our formal militaries would be crushed immediately. We have no void shields which means every meaningful military installation or asset (like warships) would be destroyed from orbit. Void shields are why Titans don't just get lance struck to oblivion.

It is correct that we would keep fighting a guerrilla war for a long time though. People would keep putting up trouble until the Imperium finally has it crushed. They would not give up, our planet is too rich and unspoiled, worlds that are perfectly habitable like this with no xenos activity, no chaos corruption and so on are precious.

But in practice, it's a war that would be fought by the Arbites for much longer than anything else.

Exactly.

Also not everyone will resist. A Rogue Trader is likely first contact - they will assess the feuding seething masses, decide to support one or more of them and arm/support them initially - Well Mr President/Prim Minister/Supreme Leader (etc) I can offer you advanced technology,l orbital dominance, anti-ageing technology etc etc Someone will go along with the RT and they begin the subjugation that way. Decapitate any major governments that are difficult.

Another good point by Mad Doc is that there is no outside force competing with Imperium to supply the resistance (if there was - Eldar or tau for instance - this could get interesting).

Lastly - the Imperium may even be happy to preserve some specific areas of martial resistance - make a good training ground for recruits.

And this is likely best case scenario, if our world is unlucky enough to be first contacted by the Mechancius or an Imperial Crusade then resistance will be quelled by any and all means.

Mechanicus may be more interested in first exploiting the other worlds in our system. They may be backwards worshippers of toasters in a SciFi sense, but when it comes to strip mining entire planets and asteroid fields? They’re perfectly competent for the task at hand.

With us still stuck on this rock without outside aid to get us off it? There’s an argument there’s no point trying to deal with us until you absolutely have to. Because what the hell are we gonna do about it? We can’t strike at ships in any meaningful way without them being in fairly low orbit. Do we have enough launch platforms to overcome a full array of void shields? How do we aim if our military satellites have been knocked out?

We know Scrap Code exists, and can infect a wireless noosphere. If that’s anything like our wireless internet, a Mechanicus force could quite easily and trivially Brick the entire planet. One data burst, goodbye to absolutely anything online.

No radar systems to help coordinate air travel. GPS gone, reducing shipping to sextants (not the blow that sounds, as I believe ship crews all still have star navigation training as a cracker of a back up).

It would cause absolute chaos to the developed world. All banking records destroyed, so straight off the bat there goes the entire global economy, as there’s then essentially No Actual Money.

Global communications would be reduced to morsecode and undersea cable telegraph.

Me. Get to work, peasant.

Coming back to the original question?

I think we’d become a Guard Recruitment World. As I pointed out in an earlier post, Earth has a variety of environments. Mostly we live in the more habitable areas, but have technology such as specialised clothing which means we can exist in the more extreme areas. So a single planet offers a variety of training conditions for Guard Trainees.

We’re also free of mutation and live on a comparatively unpolluted world. That makes for a hale and healthy population.

Perhaps we’d be claimed as a Schola Progenium World. Lots of clean air and wide open vistas, minimal existing infrastructure etc. The industry can be off-world, for example Mars, and any arms and armaments and that just sent down as and when needed.

What would become of the native population? Who knows. But there’s little stopping the Imperium shipping us off elsewhere if they want the planet first and foremost. Which is entirely possible as again, our entire system is untouched in terms of resource extraction. So there may not be a pressing need to exploit Earth’s own resources.

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Cost and the home public opinion.

Two things the wider Imperium isn’t especially fussed about.

The IoM is definitely concerned by cost. Sure usually not in terms of lives, but the IoM doesn't have infinite resources.

And who, with our native military industrial complex overwhelmed (either outright destroyed or entirely taken over at source), exactly is continuing to arm these Guereillas? Where are they getting the arms and ammo from?

Unless the IoM is planning to reduce us to the stone age (and thus lose access to both our industrial base and population), they are going to leave us with some industry left. And stuff gets lost or stolen.

When you’re struggling to scrap up ammo, and your usual external supporters no longer control resources, and you’re seeing your foe just casually annihilating villages and towns, how long can you maintain any kind of fighting spirit? How long until it becomes absolutely crystal clear that You Have Lost? That you never stood a ghost of a chance. That for all intents and purposes, your foe’s resources are infinite?

Depends a lot on how good the IoM is at "winning the peace", but part of the issue here is that the IoM will both demand massive changes to our culture and tithes that will negatively affect our living standards.
So Earth will likely suffer occasional rebellions as long as worsening living conditions fuel hatred against the Imperials.

Such rebellions are extremely unlikely to succeed by themselves. But if we are lucky*, a nearby Tyranid hive fleet, Ork Waaagh or Necron incursion may force the IoM to give up on us.
*Assuming of course said threat isn't directly aimed at us.

Let's be honest, the only choice for planetary governor is King Charles.

I still think we get Exterminatus in less than a month.

Also, to ask OP to further clarify the premise, is Earth being found at face value here?

Ie, will they find written Warhammer material and recognise themselves in it? Will the Mechanicus go bananas because they find what to them appears like a whole trove world of M2-M3 era archeotech?

What if they see this exact thread and declare everyone who posted in it a witch?