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Noir wrote:

Why it's there IP that matters, let GW die. Let the others come in and pick there bones.

And this shows the complete lack of understanding regarding the impact of GW on the overall industry. If GW were to go tits up tomorrow. The gaming industry would collapse. All the stores in my area, GW sales make up a plurality of the sales at the store. Even if their slice of sales is dropping (which in my area, they aren't) it still makes up a good chunk of most FLGS' sales. All my FLGS' said that if GW went under suddenly, they would have to close shop. The loss in revenue would be too big a hit. Hell, half the posts on this forum are companies that provide extras for GW products. They would all find themselves in trouble.
To give you an idea of size, a PP employee told me the annual revenue of the company a couple years ago (generally regarded as the #2 in the miniature industry). It was less than 10% of GW's revenue.
Yes, some other company might come along and pick up the IP and start a new game, but that could take years. And when it does, it is very likely not going to be related to the original game (Wizkidz' Battletech CMG?) In the meantime, players won't all just pick-up a new game. Some might move to other games, but some may just keep playing the game as is. Not putting any additional money into stores. Some might drop out of the hobby all together.
That being said, if GW slowly declined into irrelevance where their sales don't matter anymore and then fold, it would be different. FASA use to be huge, but they became irrelevant over time and didn't get more than an "oh well" when they folded. Their disappearance had minimal impact on the industry.

silent25 wrote:

Noir wrote:

Why it's there IP that matters, let GW die. Let the others come in and pick there bones.

And this shows the complete lack of understanding regarding the impact of GW on the overall industry. If GW were to go tits up tomorrow. The gaming industry would collapse. All the stores in my area, GW sales make up a plurality of the sales at the store. Even if their slice of sales is dropping (which in my area, they aren't) it still makes up a good chunk of most FLGS' sales. All my FLGS' said that if GW went under suddenly, they would have to close shop. The loss in revenue would be too big a hit. Hell, half the posts on this forum are companies that provide extras for GW products. They would all find themselves in trouble.

Really, most stores the 4 in my county are supported be MtG, I watch guy drop 400-800 each expansion. GW stuff get 400-800 too, but that maybe 2-5 years when there army come out, some times longer. It makes up nearly as much as every thing else sold in the stores togather. It is not GW that people are buying but there IP, witch can be sold if GW gose under and there games will keep going on. But, to tell the truth, if your running a business that could go under if one company gose out of business, you should really think about changing there business model. Thous company that support GW would be the same ones that will pickup the IP or just keep making them for the model of the company that dose pickup the IP. The only reason there be any slow down of production is if GW went out of there way to screw over every one, when they go under. A company like GW fail would be know far enough in advance by the people that matter, that all the suppy and demand issue could be taking care of before the IP is even transferred, unless the IP is so damaged by GW before this happen, that no one want it.

silent25 wrote:

And this shows the complete lack of understanding regarding the impact of GW on the overall industry.

What GW's real function is in the wargaming hobby is to bring in new people, that is certainly not to say that they are the only route in though. If GW was to fold overall player numbers would decline in the short term but in the medium and long term I doubt that there would be much changel. This is especially the case if GW's IP is still being utilised.

Some stores will close, a lot of people will Ebay their armies but Its hardly catastrophic. Its actually quite common to find clubs in the UK that don't play GW games at all and the Uk is supposed to be GW's core market.

silent25 wrote:

Noir wrote:

Why it's there IP that matters, let GW die. Let the others come in and pick there bones.

If GW were to go tits up tomorrow. The gaming industry would collapse..

QFT. I love GW, they're a great British success story as a business and long may it continue. Let them raise prices, I'll adjust. How many Dreadnoughts does one army need anyway?

Palindrome wrote:
What GW's real function is in the wargaming hobby is to bring in new people, that is certainly not to say that they are the only route in though. If GW was to fold overall player numbers would decline in the short term but in the medium and long term I doubt that there would be much changel. This is especially the case if GW's IP is still being utilised.

Some stores will close, a lot of people will Ebay their armies but Its hardly catastrophic. Its actually quite common to find clubs in the UK that don't play GW games at all and the Uk is supposed to be GW's core market.

Agree that GW acts as a gateway drug for gaming, but I see the problem as having an impact on distributors and game stores. As I said, the stores in my area, GW makes up a plurality of their sales (aka largest segment). So even say they are well diversified and GW sales only make up 20% of the stores sales. That 20% disappearing can mean the owner can no longer order new product or pay all the bills. Even if the disruption is only a few months, game stores don't have deep pockets, the impact can cripple a store for a long time. Plus, what remaining GW product on the shelves, they would have difficulty moving since it is a dead game. They could blow it out, but would be doing so at no profit or even a loss. With those stores not able to order new product, other companies feel the pinch as they don't see as much demand as previously. That puts them under pressure and they have to start to cut costs as well and start to get into trouble as well.

Just because there are some clubs that do non-GW games does not mean that everyone will switch over right away. Might take several months to convince people to try new games. During that time, a lot of store will be hurting and could fold. And as I said before, if someone grabs the IP, it is not guaranteed that they will immediately start supporting 40K/WHFB again. Say Hasbro gets it and ends up only releasing a series of board games based on the IP or worse, collectable miniature game

The impact would be real but only on the short to medium term. It is also very dependant upon exactly how GW imploded, Its not as if people don't continue to play orphaned GW games, I know of a club where the only GW games that are played are Necromunda and Mordheim.

I would like to see some GW inspired board games, after all just look at how many gamers of a certain age played Space Crusade and/or Heroquest.

I seriously doubt flames of war or Warmachine would be popular without GW around. Game stores may not be totally built around miniature games (as MTG is a huge seller), but without GW there would be no miniature section in those stores for sure

This would make it so FoW and WM wouldn't have the critical mass of players to warrant stocking it in a vast majority of stores. Like GW or hate them, they create the tempo that others follow (Just look at the prices for WM and FOW.. they're very comparable)

In order to be able to play wargames consistently IN public (IE not in your basement) you need GW because without them why have store space for miniature games?

Kirasu wrote:
In order to be able to play wargames consistently IN public (IE not in your basement) you need GW because without them why have store space for miniature games?

I know of several stores whose stock of FoW, WM/H, Malifaux, and other games (even Wargods of Aegyptus) move faster than GW miniatures. Some don't bother stocking Fantasy. One even stocks Vallejo paints instead of GW's line.

^ I bet GW wouldn't be to happy

Who cares what GW thinks? They're the ones who screwed the store over in the first place.

Companies that believe themselves to be monopolies though usually aren't quite happy when competition starts to show up. Though before others grab monopoly and throw the word around, it is much more closer to an oligopoly on their own IP.

Philly has a much higher game store saturation than a lot of areas.. If you're only going to have 1 or maybe 2 stores in the area I doubt you can afford to bet the store on smaller games is all. When competing with Showcase and similar stores it's probably easier to focus on those other games

It's all relative to your area and customers obviously but the point is without GW there wouldn't have even been a market of dissatisfied customers to even play those other games (Well besides FoW since its WW2)

YakManDoo wrote:What I think I'm noticing about GW in North America is what seems like a steady retail expansion into untapped markets. I've not been in the hobby long enough to know previous years retail expansion and contraction trends, but it seems GW recognizes big potential for hobby growth in the US.

I think that means that they are addressing the dropping unit sales figures by expanding brand reach.

As to the coming price increase, I'd push my product out price-wise until the market really pushed back. What I see is a clear and deliberate NA strategy, declining unit sales, and level stock performance. GW is building for long term sustainability. If they can expand just slightly more than they contract they create an income investment with reliable return. THey have a sustainable model...it's not an aggressive profit model, but it is a model.

As I write this it makes me imagine a company primping itself for getting gobbled by a private equity firm or something...random thought..

I would second this. They are expanding rapidly in NA, and there are many people that I know who have jumped onto the GW train with or without my saying. I would say there is quite the growing market at least in Florida for it.

They regularly close and open stores though. Once the area is tapped out, they close and move the store elsewhere.

One of their main problems is they also run retail instead of supplying to stores in general, creating a much much greater cost and making each of these store closings and openings hurt them a bit.

Kirasu wrote:Philly has a much higher game store saturation than a lot of areas.. If you're only going to have 1 or maybe 2 stores in the area I doubt you can afford to bet the store on smaller games is all. When competing with Showcase and similar stores it's probably easier to focus on those other games

It's all relative to your area and customers obviously but the point is without GW there wouldn't have even been a market of dissatisfied customers to even play those other games (Well besides FoW since its WW2)

Wargaming has been around for millenia, long before GW even thought of making their own games. Suggesting that without GW there would be no modern wargaming is rather misleading.

Im glad things look good for them. They could get bought out by Hasbro...

Kirasu wrote:Philly has a much higher game store saturation than a lot of areas.. If you're only going to have 1 or maybe 2 stores in the area I doubt you can afford to bet the store on smaller games is all. When competing with Showcase and similar stores it's probably easier to focus on those other games

It's all relative to your area and customers obviously but the point is without GW there wouldn't have even been a market of dissatisfied customers to even play those other games (Well besides FoW since its WW2)

To be honest, Showcase is the only games store in the Philly area I know that is surviving on GW. Everything, especially on the Jersey side of the river, turns on M:TG these days.

Agreed, thats why I specifically meant the wargaming portion of the games store not the whole store itself.

Wargaming has been around for millenia, long before GW even thought of making their own games. Suggesting that without GW there would be no modern wargaming is rather misleading.

Odd, I don't remember reading about all the retail stores in the Roman Empire that had table space for wargames

Kirasu wrote:

Wargaming has been around for millenia, long before GW even thought of making their own games. Suggesting that without GW there would be no modern wargaming is rather misleading.

Odd, I don't remember reading about all the retail stores in the Roman Empire that had table space for wargames

Yeah, that's the way to win a debate.

For every set of rules out there that have been even slightly influenced by GW's rules over the years, there are dozens of others that owe nothing to GW whatsoever.

To say that GW hasn't had an influence on contemporary wargaming would be incorrect, since they managed to grow to be the largest wargame-producing company by appealing to the lowest common denominator . But it would be a grave error to think that we owe GW for the existence of wargaming today. And if we do owe anything to GW, it's to the GW of the 80's and 90's, not to the GW of today.

It's relevant since my point was about stores providing FREE space for wargames. Not the existence of wargames themselves. (While wargames existed there were no retail stores where random people could come in and play)

GW games provide a critical mass of players that makes it presumably profitable for stores to devote the space (since it costs money) and the time required to maintain such a space. Yes the other games are popular and would exist without GW but I seriously doubt stores would provide terrain and plenty of tables for the vastly smaller games

Same reason why retail stores don't stock many small brands in general, they are there to make money not make gambles.

I still stand by my belief that love GW or hate it they provide a large number of wargamers that make having devoted table space much LESS of a risk to a store owner, thus those tables can then be used by the smaller games as well.

It's the same deal with space marines, like them or not.. They allow GW to produce non-space marines because they provide the income to do so

Kirasu wrote:GW games provide a critical mass of players that makes it presumably profitable for stores to devote the space (since it costs money) and the time required to maintain such a space. Yes the other games are popular and would exist without GW but I seriously doubt stores would provide terrain and plenty of tables for the vastly smaller games

The thing that this argument is missing is that without GW around, some of those smaller games would potentially be considerably bigger... If (and I'm in no way suggesting it's likely to actually happen any time soon) GW were to collapse under their own hubris, it wouldn't result in everybody just saying 'Oh, ok then' and giving up wargaming. Some would, certainly... those who are only interested in 40K or WHFB specifically. But many of those gamers would just turn to one of those other games that they've been eyeing off but never started playing because they were already invested.

The only report I pay attention to is when I walk into any of the 7-8 major game store within an hours drive from me and dont see a sliver of the GW games going on that I used to. If it wasnt for Forge World and Black Library GW would be done.as a publicly traded company.

I'd also like to point that that GW proliferated the idea that you need stores to play at. I honestly almost never game in a store - I'd much rather do it at home with my the terrain I built myself.

What I see out there (anecdotal, anecdotal, anecdotal) are game store calendars with few to any 40k games scheduled. The market appears to be in a place of diversification at a pretty remarkable clip though not necessarily one of net growth. The question for any industry is whether or not they are making new customers, servicing existing, or losing customers. Servicing customers is the most cost effective strategy for near term financial viability with new customers being one of the most expensive things to obtain. GW is clearly doing all three in an ever diversifying marketplace with a focus on servicing the existing client base. I think GW's financials point to a saturated market with little real growth opportunity.

Forge World appears to be a growing segment of the business along with Black Library. These represent the two extremes of the client base; casually interested in the IPs (Black Library representing the lowest threshold of interest) and deeply invested in the IPs (Forge World churning out high end resin all the freaking time for the enthusiast).

Maybe GW realizes something we don't as enthusiasts: market saturation. They have reached the limit of the market for miniature tabletop wargaming. They can't really grow the segment like it once grew so now they will focus on the edges and the high end resin. Their financial report IMHO is a sign of where GW sees the marketplace; paltry growth amidst a diversifying set of offerings. I'd be happy if I were a stockholder looking for income, but tabletop wargaming is not a growth industry. GW knows the industry 'cause it defines it.

From a few years of casting my eye over their stated accounts I would say GW is what it has been for two decades now - a vehicle for one man to rake in the cash. When the current owner bought out Ansell back in 1991 or whenever strategic decisions were made to maximise profitability. Amazing to remember when GW used to stock other people's stuff, they syndicated stuff like Stormbringer and Paranoia RPGs in the UK, they made and stocked a range of boardgames, their's and others, etc. In short they were an all-round gaming company, run by gamers for gamers, they stocked everything. Ansell had moved to get rid of other people's stuff, but he did retain boardgames, RPGs, etc.

The new owners decided to concentrate on Citadel, it was a simple matter of profit margin. RPGs and boardgames made too little so miniatures were the way to go.

GW has been run since as if it is a vehicle for one person to profit and put together a large pension pot. Many decisions seem to be short-termist and lacking in any long-term thinking. Contracting sales and rising prices are not a way to grow long term. Clearly the customer base is dwindling, but new starters are likely to be put off by the base prices, so the strategy is essentially to wring more and more from a falling base. This is clearly not a long range strategy. lack of any offers, bulk discounts, introductory offers, sales, etc, etc in this environment point to a firm looking to take profit now and not concern itself too much with future events.

The problem here is what happens when the owner decides he has taken out enough and retires. He will be set for several lifetimes with huge sums of cash. However, the firm will be left with an unworkable business model that is effectively a spiral of decline with no growth strategy. Then a private equity firm or something would pick up the company. That might not be bad as anyone taking over would look to grow the business which has massive potential to expand IMHO and would do so quickly based on larger unit sales and better economies of scale. More targeted sales expanding tactics would bring rewards fast but that is not the company focus, guaranteed levels of profit regardless of future profits are.

Couldn't agree more Isengard...GW shows no signs of wanting to grow substantially...minimal marketing, no sales etc.

What I think will be interesting to watch is the post-Hobbit movies GW. There will be new armies for the weakest of the lines, bump in sales, and better numbers during the movies' runs. 6th edition, the new starter set, and rapid C:SM, Tau, and Dark Angels codexes could really make next year's numbers pop. However, it still doesn't fix the long-term trajectory of the company.

GW feels like a firm without ambition.