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 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:


I wonder what the USA's reaction will be to this?

Will they do a Britain in the 19th Century (faced with the rise of Germany and Russia) and fight them (probably wiping out the world in the process if there is a third world war) or will they innovate and go back to their roots - land of the free and ending restrictions on personal liberty? Interesting times.

Now, I don't want to make light of the domestic spying issues and violations of personal freedoms in the ongoing war on drugs and terror, they are serious and should be treated as such, but I will say that thinking the US has freedom and personal liberty in their roots is giving me a chuckle. Slavery, debt bondage and persecution of various groups are the roots of the US (not being mean to the US here, many countries had as bad or worse!), and the realization of personal freedom only started to be realized in the progress of last century (and even then it's waxed and waned through various events).

 Frazzled wrote:


You'd better research that more. Much of the design work is done in Cali.

Just no.

 Maddermax wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:


I wonder what the USA's reaction will be to this?

Will they do a Britain in the 19th Century (faced with the rise of Germany and Russia) and fight them (probably wiping out the world in the process if there is a third world war) or will they innovate and go back to their roots - land of the free and ending restrictions on personal liberty? Interesting times.

Now, I don't want to make light of the domestic spying issues and violations of personal freedoms in the ongoing war on drugs and terror, they are serious and should be treated as such, but I will say that thinking the US has freedom and personal liberty in their roots is giving me a chuckle. Slavery, debt bondage and persecution of various groups are the roots of the US (not being mean to the US here, many countries had as bad or worse!), and the realization of personal freedom only started to be realized in the progress of last century (and even then it's waxed and waned through various events).

Explain! Are you seriously suggesting that America isn't free? That during the revolution, more slaves were freed by the British, or that more Native Americans were allied with Britain than the freedom fighting Americans! I call you liar!
Also, are you suggesting that the Confederacy broke away because they were annoyed by all the red tape from Washington and Lincoln's extravagant spending?

America is the land of the free. I'm not saying that because I'm worried about the NSA or Navy SEALS spiriting me away in the night. The USA is a great country, I wish I were American!

Jokes aside, many countries have had similar historical crimes to the USA (my own country is pretty near the top of the list in that regard) but that doesn't mean the USA can't aspire to more freedoms.





Automatically Appended Next Post:

 DanFST wrote:

 Frazzled wrote:


You'd better research that more. Much of the design work is done in Cali.

Just no.

Can we trust a hammers fan? No?

 sebster wrote:

 Ketara wrote:
And if a new world rival is to arise out of Europe over the next century, Germany is where the power will be, both economically and industrially. France is too internally weak,

Actually, thanks to the relative birth rates of the two countries and the effect that will have on demographics and then in turn on GDP, France will be the larger power within a couple of generations.

Conjecture. The high rate of immigration into Germany from the rest of Europe combined with the potential for variability of birth rate over several generations means that such a estimate is at best, a guesstimate.

There's also the fact that a larger population does not necessarily correlate with increased industrial power and economic wellbeing.

I'm inclined to think that based on general cultural inclination for productivity, combined with possessing the industrial backbone that France does not, Germany will continue to dominate.

 sebster wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
I seriously doubt that Obama gave the go-ahead for spying on Merkel, but this wild west attitude amongst American intelligence is the problem.

The spying on Merkel began in 2002. The US is currently claiming that Obama didn't even know it was going on, but I'm sure if anyone believes that.

We're faced with the prospect that either the Administration was aware of the program to spy on other world leaders, or that the US's intelligence agencies are beholden to no one in the land.

 Ketara wrote:
Conjecture.

So you can just throw "France is too internally weak" out there as just a statement to be accepted, but direct projections of future population based on current growth rates is conjecture? Huh.

There's also the fact that a larger population does not necessarily correlate with increased industrial power and economic wellbeing.

Sure, if we're talking about Mexico or Burkina Faso. But when we're talking about developed nations then the variation in GDP per capita is actually quite small. The reason the Germany is the current powerhouse in Europe is because it has more or less the same GDP per capita as France, the UK and the northern European countries, and the largest population base. Well given current trends, it is likely that France will will become the largest population base.

And on top of that, there's also the issue of population age. A static or slow growing population will have a greater elderly percentage than a faster growing population, and the elderly is not where GDP and productivity is at.

I'm inclined to think that based on general cultural inclination for productivity, combined with possessing the industrial backbone that France does not, Germany will continue to dominate.

Basically you're just buying in to brand Germany and their reputation for 'general cultural inclination for productivity' and just running with that. When was the last time you picked up a cyberpunk book from the 80s, that had Japan dominating the world, or as a rival to the US? Those books were doing what you're doing now, they were relying on brand Japan just as much as you're now relying on brand Germany, and ignoring the underlying demographic and economic realities.

Those books look downright comical now...


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 Dreadclaw69 wrote:
We're faced with the prospect that either the Administration was aware of the program to spy on other world leaders, or that the US's intelligence agencies are beholden to no one in the land.

Or perhaps most likely both.

 sebster wrote:

So you can just throw "France is too internally weak" out there as just a statement to be accepted, but direct projections of future population based on current growth rates is conjecture? Huh.

I said that because I can substantiate the comment about France's industrial muscle. I didn't do so in that particular instance, as it was a single line in the middle of several paragraphs of a broad overview of my opinion on generalised European future political shifts, as opposed to an in depth analysis of France's industrial future.

Sure, if we're talking about Mexico or Burkina Faso. But when we're talking about developed nations then the variation in GDP per capita is actually quite small. The reason the Germany is the current powerhouse in Europe is because it has more or less the same GDP per capita as France, the UK and the northern European countries, and the largest population base. Well given current trends, it is likely that France will will become the largest population base.

Population base does not tell the whole story regardless. We here in the UK have a fairly large nation, however that does not necessarily equate to us being producers of physical goods. There's a general correlation, in that small countries with barely any people are physically incapable of being giant manufacturing nations, but beyond that? I wouldn't care to speculate based on that kind of evidence. Correlation does not necessarily equate to causation. Especially in the age of globalisation where goods are capable of being produced abroad.

Basically you're just buying in to brand Germany and their reputation for 'general cultural inclination for productivity' and just running with that. When was the last time you picked up a cyberpunk book from the 80s, that had Japan dominating the world, or as a rival to the US? Those books were doing what you're doing now, they were relying on brand Japan just as much as you're now relying on brand Germany, and ignoring the underlying demographic and economic realities.

I recommend you cease scoffing and jumping to conclusions about the reasons behind my analysis of the political/industrial future of Europe prior to asking what they actually are.

I base my analysis upon my knowledge of German and French productivity over the period of the last hundred and thirty or so years, and logical deduction about the state of the European Union and the evolution of its processes to date(and likely progression). Not to mention the general cultural factors in both France and Germany. 'Brand Germany' has nothing to do with it.

Germany's burgeoning industrial muscle has been the concern of the better part of Europe for over a century now. It's been destroyed several times, rebuilt several times, and generally has remained exceptional. France alternatively, whilst extremely powerful in its own right, has been blighted with a different setup in terms of trade unions, political interference, and (to be honest) a slightly more Mediterranean attitude to the life culturally. It also finds itself somewhat more mired in loans than Germany, with a third again as much public debt. Combined with the paucity of political leadership and popularity over there for the immediate future, I do not see France rising to call the shots in the Union again anytime soon.

The Germans currently have more finance and the industrial might than France. And as said, the Germans are beginning to wield the political power that goes with that. When Europe speaks these days, Germany tends to be first amongst equals. Britain is too much of a maverick and unreliable, and France is too preoccupied with internal squabbling and economic woes. Whilst this is not to say that things will necessarily always remain that way, it more or less is the current state of affairs. It is possible this could overturn in the next fifteen years. But at best, it will return to a relationship of equals. France will not dominate Germany or the EU again the way it once did. And if Europe continues to be bound ever closer and tighter, it becomes somewhat irrelevant regardless, as French and German power will begin to blend more and more into one along with several other countries.

Which is of course, precisely what the Americans are afraid of. Another power arising of similar economic scale and technological sophistication to them? That, by it's very nature, is a threat.

 Ketara wrote:
I said that because I can substantiate the comment about France's industrial muscle. I didn't do so in that particular instance, as it was a single line in the middle of several paragraphs of a broad overview of my opinion on generalised European future political shifts, as opposed to an in depth analysis of France's industrial future.

Judging a modern economy on its industrial muscle is liking judging a team's chance of winning the Premier League on whether or not people like the colours in their away strip.

Population base does not tell the whole story regardless. We here in the UK have a fairly large nation, however that does not necessarily equate to us being producers of physical goods. There's a general correlation, in that small countries with barely any people are physically incapable of being giant manufacturing nations, but beyond that? I wouldn't care to speculate based on that kind of evidence. Correlation does not necessarily equate to causation. Especially in the age of globalisation where goods are capable of being produced abroad.

Seriously, stop talking about manufacturing. It's far from the only way to produce income.

Second up, population isn't the only issue, but once you become a developed country, and hit that plateau of 35k to 40k in GDP per capita, then it really is all about population size.

I base my analysis upon my knowledge of German and French productivity over the period of the last hundred and thirty or so years, and logical deduction about the state of the European Union and the evolution of its processes to date(and likely progression).

You honestly think German and French economics and politics from 1883 are relevant? Seriously? The world has changed so much in 30 years that trends from 1983 are probably not valid, let alone 1883.

Not to mention the general cultural factors in both France and Germany. 'Brand Germany' has nothing to do with it.

This idea that Germany has this general cultural factor of hard work and efficiency is 'brand Germany'.

The Germans currently have more finance and the industrial might than France. And as said, the Germans are beginning to wield the political power that goes with that. When Europe speaks these days, Germany tends to be first amongst equals. Britain is too much of a maverick and unreliable, and France is too preoccupied with internal squabbling and economic woes.

And now you're just repeating your initial claim again. So I guess I can just go back to the start as well, and repeat my point that while Germany is the dominat power right now, the demographics and economic trends speak against that being the case in a couple of generations. Because, as you point out, speaking power is all about economic muscle, and France will like be the larger economy in the middle of this century.

Look! Graphs!

It is possible this could overturn in the next fifteen years. But at best, it will return to a relationship of equals. France will not dominate Germany or the EU again the way it once did. And if Europe continues to be bound ever closer and tighter, it becomes somewhat irrelevant regardless, as French and German power will begin to blend more and more into one along with several other countries.

That's all I'm saying. That the trend speaks to France gaining parity and then the upper hand. Not enough to dominate affairs, but any advantage would lie with them.

Which is of course, precisely what the Americans are afraid of. Another power arising of similar economic scale and technological sophistication to them? That, by it's very nature, is a threat.

Agreed.

Spying isn't always about concern over growing power levels and the like, sometimes it is becuase you care so much it hurts to be away from them. You want to be sure they are safe in the shower. Really isn't this just proof that the USA is in love with the rest of the world?

 Ahtman wrote:
Spying isn't always about concern over growing power levels and the like, sometimes it is becuase you care so much it hurts to be away from them. You want to be sure they are safe in the shower. Really isn't this just proof that the USA is in love with the rest of the world?

Exactly.
Message: we care!

 sebster wrote:

As with the Japan population thread, I'm willing to do my part.

Fraulines, take a number.

 kronk wrote:

 sebster wrote:

As with the Japan population thread, I'm willing to do my part.

Fraulines, take a number.

At least German women might be interested in real sex.

 Grey Templar wrote:

 kronk wrote:

 sebster wrote:

As with the Japan population thread, I'm willing to do my part.

Fraulines, take a number.

At least German women might be interested in real sex.

After a bit of "research," I'm not sure that may be a pleasant experience