Sigvatr wrote:
d-usa wrote:And he is how many points for a one-turn wonder that will be hurting for magic dice most of the time?
With a casting bonus of +5, you only need 2 dice (avg. 7, thus total casting average per spell = 12) to reliably cast any buff in the game on your units. And with a total of 7 PD, on average, that still is a reliable way to get the spells you picked before off.
Wow, so a lot of people on these boards seem to have no idea how dice probabilities work.
Yes, the "average" roll on
2d6 is 7. However, that's not enough information to go on:
Total on dice Pairs of dice Probability
2 1+1 1/36 = 3%
3 1+2, 2+1 2/36 = 6%
4 1+3, 2+2, 3+1 3/36 = 8%
5 1+4, 2+3, 3+2, 4+1 4/36 = 11%
6 1+5, 2+4, 3+3, 4+2, 5+1 5/36 = 14%
7 1+6, 2+5, 3+4, 4+3, 5+2, 6+1 6/36 = 17%
8 2+6, 3+5, 4+4, 5+3, 6+2 5/36 = 14%
9 3+6, 4+5, 5+4, 6+3 4/36 = 11%
10 4+6, 5+5, 6+4 3/36 = 8%
11 5+6, 6+5 2/36 = 6%
12 6+6 1/36 = 3%
So the chance of getting that "average" roll is the sum of it and everything larger, so 59%. Thus if you're relying on "average" rolls you have a 41% chance of falling short and prematurely ending your casting phase. That's a pretty huge risk when you've invested so much in your magic phase. Add in a third
d6 and your probability of hitting that 7+ just jumped up to 90.4%, a huge improvement.
Personally, I prefer not to take a risk of more than 10% early in my magic phase. However, once you only have 2 or 3 dice left in your power pool there's much less at stake when you try to squeeze 3 spells out of there rather than 2.
So roll the safest spells first, then push to the riskier spells that have higher casting dice or that you're less concerned about getting off (and thus are using fewer dice for).
PS: a great tool for calculating odds is
anydice.com
