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While I am a big PP fan and would dearly like them to be seeing growth, the estimate for Warmachine sales seem high. Here in Norway, it might rival 40k in size, but the U.S. is the hearthland of 40k...

 Hruotland wrote:

1. It is Kirby himself who botches it. Would not be the first businessman who thinks of himself as the smart one while in reality having no grasp on simple facts of life. That would mean the sharks should follow the CHS suit with interest, for there is one ripe and easy prey in the pond (not the wargaming industry, but the finance business). Bye bye GW, you are dead.

2. Kirby IS already the shark who recogniced he could outsmart those gamers in order to milk the cow to death. In this case he is indeed cleverer than his surroundings, but has no interest in the company's long-term wellfare, just in getting as much money out of it as he can. Bye bye GW, you are dead.

So what happens to the games if "GW goes bye-bye"? Is the company closed down and farmed for the IP? Do the new owners try to farm th fans a big more? It cannot possibly be profitable to axe them completely?

silent25 wrote:


Think that figure is a bit deceptive because you are showing PP's possible global sales when compared to GW's US sales. UK and Canada would likely be a decent fraction. There is a potential swing of $13 million in those numbers. But that could be made up for in international sales. Surprised that Hordes has so much smaller a following. Is there any basis to that breakdown?

There is some basis for the breakdown - mostly conversations with friends who own stores and one who works for a distributor in their warehousing department and one who did a development job for PP several years ago (and still does some upgrade work for them).

Regarding the number, it actually isn't representative of global sales. It is US sales + retail margin... Remember, PP does the majority of their business through distributors - so their $15 million in sales 3 years ago accounted for roughly $25 million of the market. Again, I have my reasons for believing the split is accurate in terms of how much of their sales are US versus the rest of the world - though it is hard to prove something based on hearsay. I believe it is accurate - if you don't that is fine.

The issue regarding WFB and 40K as well for that matter relates to price hikes. Since the positions are based on the dollar value of goods sold - more expensive products will rank higher based then less expensive products given the same number of units sold. If you recall, the larger price hikes became a regular occurrence for WFB and 40K in the 2008 time frame (would need to check to see the actual years and price hikes...might have been 2007, might have been 2009). While the other games are making gains in units sold - GW is holding their positions in terms of dollars sold due to higher relative prices (particularly astonishing when you see lines like Reaper's pop onto that list from time to time).

Hordes likely has a similar problem that WFB has in the US - which is to say that it doesn't quite fit with existing fantasy genre preconceptions. It seems as though we like D&D/Tolkien style orks, dwarves, elves and the like and the stylistic choices made by GW in that regard are a bit off putting. The lack of those tropes within the Iron Kingdoms setting seems to be a lagging point for sale and uptake beyond those who are current players. Warmachine manages to avoid this by focusing more on the Steam Punk nature of the setting which doesn't have as strong of an ingrained position in the average person when they first get into gaming.

When PP was still more actively marketing their d20 Iron Kingdoms setting, I understand that somewhere between 1/4 and 1/2 of the sales of figures went to RPG players who used the various miniatures for those games as opposed to their Hordes game. I would need to check the dates to be certain - but that would have also been around the 2008-2009 time period. They ended up resurrecting the RPG though late last year (after this last set of results from ICv2) so we may end up seeing a change in the ranking again if they can manage to draw the RPG buyers back in to pick up Hordes figures for their games. It was never a top selling RPG, even during the heyday of the d20 frenzy - but the numbers where solid and the following was just as rampant as you find in the other PP games.

Just another useful number which can put things into perspective. The US market for collectible card games (Magic, Pokémon...) is around $950 million (hard to tag that one, as they are also sold through a lot of big box stores like Walmart). The US market for collectible miniature games (Clix having the vast majority of that market now) is around $160 million. That is just US sales. The interesting bit about that is that Wizkids, which produces the Clix games, was sold to Topps in 2003 for around $30 million. When Topps was sold to Tornante for roughly $375 million, they shut down Wizkids in 2008 even though it was bringing in $54 million per year in global sales. NECA managed to buy the Wizkids brand and related Clix game from Tornante for a song (I don't know the exact number - but my source said they almost felt bad about it it was so low). I think it was back in December or January they announced that they had sold their 400 millionth miniature. Using that number, the MSRP of the sets, and somewhat standard wholesale discounting - it is reasonable to assume that Wizkids has made $500 million or so in sales on their Clix figures alone (and remember - they are a manufacturer only...so their actual retail sales figures would be much higher than that).

Kaptajn Congoboy wrote:
While I am a big PP fan and would dearly like them to be seeing growth, the estimate for Warmachine sales seem high. Here in Norway, it might rival 40k in size, but the U.S. is the hearthland of 40k...

Not so much as you might think. This is really the market where PP provides the most competition for GW, and in many areas has completely eliminated GW. As I had said before, GW is pretty much a memory where I live. Others have mentioned that their local stores have also eliminated their products - or cut back on them significantly. I'll see if I can get more recent hard numbers by calling around some in the morning - but I really would not be surprised at all to see 40K drop from the number one position for US independent retailers.

Kaptajn Congoboy wrote:

 Hruotland wrote:

1. It is Kirby himself who botches it. Would not be the first businessman who thinks of himself as the smart one while in reality having no grasp on simple facts of life. That would mean the sharks should follow the CHS suit with interest, for there is one ripe and easy prey in the pond (not the wargaming industry, but the finance business). Bye bye GW, you are dead.

2. Kirby IS already the shark who recogniced he could outsmart those gamers in order to milk the cow to death. In this case he is indeed cleverer than his surroundings, but has no interest in the company's long-term wellfare, just in getting as much money out of it as he can. Bye bye GW, you are dead.

So what happens to the games if "GW goes bye-bye"? Is the company closed down and farmed for the IP? Do the new owners try to farm th fans a big more? It cannot possibly be profitable to axe them completely?

See above for what happened to Wizkids, or look at what happened to FASA, or possibly TSR. In any case, the game will continue - some would argue that the new management would take better care of things and make corrections for the market. Others will swear they would attempt to cut it to the bone. Either could happen - but more often than not, properties are well served by having new management take a second run at things. The new Battletech and Shadowrun books from Catalyst are amazing. WotC brought a lot of new life to D&D. Wizkids under NECA is more successful than ever.

It would demand that a pretty big company - but not too big, in case they decide to recycle the whole IP in their preferred medium rather than a miniatures game aiming for building it for the long term- took an interest in a buyout, then.

A total rehash of the 40k and WHFB rules and business model would - at least in my optics - be a good thing. But the process would be traumatic, to say the least.

Kaptajn Congoboy wrote:
It would demand that a pretty big company - but not too big, in case they decide to recycle the whole IP in their preferred medium rather than a miniatures game aiming for building it for the long term- took an interest in a buyout, then.

A total rehash of the 40k and WHFB rules and business model would - at least in my optics - be a good thing. But the process would be traumatic, to say the least.

Traumatic and probably devastating for the company. Besides, with the expansion into video games, they may actually bring in new blood. Personally I would love to see GW bring back Chapter Approved and maybe even start using WD to bring out limited ed models on occasion. I am actually enjoying the new stuff. I like the randomness of things like the Daemon world rules, the CSM codex, and even the new Daemons stuff. It adds more of that element of luck. With 5 new codexes since just before 6th dropped (7 if you include that crap they pulled with the SoB) then GW looks to be putting all the armies on the same footing.

Wayshuba wrote:
GW is showing all the signs of a company on the verge of imploding right now. They have forgotten how to grow the company so instead focus on growing the margins. This is always a temporary fix at best (just ask the management at Kodak how well this strategy works). I think it was encapsulated best above that they used to focus on growing the hobby when now their only focus is on selling toy soldiers. This changes the dynamic of the price competition as a result and GW is NOT in any way, shape, or form, competitive in the "toy soldier" business based on their current ludicrous price points.

I work at a national professional photo lab, so I've had direct experience with Kodak. We actually dumped them several years ago. But a little while back I had the good fortune to be at a Kodak conference where one of the CEO's presented an amazingly detailed speech complete with nice quality presentation materials explaining how excited Kodak was that they were able to defer repayments to their massive loans by five years and that would give them time to come up with some ideas to make money. I don't know if they expected some applause, but after the presentation they were met with stunned silence. It was quite amazing to see how the entire corporate leadership had fooled itself into thinking it was somehow in a good position. Shortly after that Kodak started selling off it's trademarks in order to manage some sort of quarterly earnings...

The videogames must raise some kind of awareness and Penny Arcade shows that videogamers can make the cross-over from screen to tabletop.

However, GW's most sustained and successful expansion was in the era when they published a wide variety of games, not just two core systems with add-on bits.

That era was the late 80s to the peak of LotR. Warhammer videogames were published during that time, yet GW have published videogames faster in the post-LotR era and seen much less assured growth.

Thus I am not convinced that videogames are an important marketing tool for GW. The key tool is the retail chain, and they should make more use of it by publishing more different games, IMO.

GW reminds me of Hitler in his last days at the moment. Launching futile offensives that might gain some ground temporarily, but in the big-picture the situation is grim and only getting grimer due to his terrible decisions.

And yes, lol Godwins Law.

 Sean_OBrien wrote:


There is some basis for the breakdown - mostly conversations with friends who own stores and one who works for a distributor in their warehousing department and one who did a development job for PP several years ago (and still does some upgrade work for them).

Regarding the number, it actually isn't representative of global sales. It is US sales + retail margin... Remember, PP does the majority of their business through distributors - so their $15 million in sales 3 years ago accounted for roughly $25 million of the market. Again, I have my reasons for believing the split is accurate in terms of how much of their sales are US versus the rest of the world - though it is hard to prove something based on hearsay. I believe it is accurate - if you don't that is fine.

Then I have to ask how you got the 25.8 million US for GW sales in 2010? Their annual revenue from North America for 2010 was 36.8 million British Pounds. Going by the 45% independent sales, 3 -1 ratio, and exchange rate of 1.55, I get very close to the 25.8 million (25.7). However you don't seem to apply the total revenue sales factor to GW that you apply to PP. I remember being told that GW's wholesale number is 65% of MSRP. It might be lower, but based off that, the numbers should be:


1) Warhammer 40k - Games Workshop - $29.8 million
2) Warmachine - Privateer Press - $18.6 million
3) Warhammer Fantasy - Games Workshop - $9.8 million
4) Hordes - Privateer Press - $4.5 million



You also are assuming that all of PP's revenue is coming through distribution and is only sold at wholesale. You don't account for their non-WMH sales or their direct sales through their online store. That can swing the numbers a couple million.

*edit* Semi-related: Ruffer LLP increased their holding of GW from 7% to 8% last week.
http://investor.games-workshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/TR1-Form-20-03-13-Ruffer.pdf
Kirby must have convinced them of some sort of good news

silent25 wrote:
You also are assuming that all of PP's revenue is coming through distribution and is only sold at wholesale. You don't account for their non-WMH sales or their direct sales through their online store. That can swing the numbers a couple million.

Given that Privateer only really sells parts on their online store, along with the occasional T-shirt and holiday sale, I doubt their online sales amount to all that much.

 Sean_OBrien wrote:

I agree, though I dont agree with them cutting their stores to one man shops. If they are going to have a retail arm, they should have a retail arm that is properly staffed to run a game store. If they cant do that without loosing money (which they seem to be incapable of doing) then close the store...dont hobble it.

With those unprofitable stores out of the way, they could revive the Outrider program and actually work to support LGS by coordinating the global events both in them and in their large bunker stores (of which they really only need a dozen or two world wide).

I think this is a great idea and frankly, there are many local game stores that have felt that GW has been squeezing them for a long time. Most privately owned game stores provide tables where you can play games - any game, not just a GW game - and feel a little betrayed when GW opens up a competing store nearby. They work hard to provide a friendly place to play, providing the community that GW refuses to supply, and they are rewarded by having to fight off a corporate chain. Your FLGS cannot survive if you buy your mini's online or from another GW store and just bring them to play on the tables at the FLGS. GW has treated these small businesses as the enemy for a long time when all along it has been the FLGS that provides the community.

@Silent25:

If I read O'Brien's post correctly, the data he is reporting is solely for retail sales at independent retailers in the USA. GW's North American sales include sales to Canadian retailers. The data came from an ICv2 survey of independent hobby retailers; ICv2 is kind of like a professional group for the hobby industry in the USA, if I understand them correctly. The data he provided does not include direct sales or internet revenue or licensing revenue, etc.

Here's a link to find out more about who they are:

http://www.icv2.com/

Saldiven wrote:
@Silent25:

If I read O'Brien's post correctly, the data he is reporting is solely for retail sales at independent retailers in the USA. GW's North American sales include sales to Canadian retailers. The data came from an ICv2 survey of independent hobby retailers; ICv2 is kind of like a professional group for the hobby industry in the USA, if I understand them correctly. The data he provided does not include direct sales or internet revenue or licensing revenue, etc.

Here's a link to find out more about who they are:

http://www.icv2.com/

I understand who ICv2 is. You are correct, I should have not mentioned Canada being left out. Mistake on my part. Still both numbers are North American sales values. The numbers he came up with are guess work based on certain inputs and assumptions. The GW numbers we got are from GW's annual report. The PP number is based off similar information both him and I have got of PP revenue being $15 million in 2010.

Also one source of revenue I forgot to also add in, convention sales. The ex-PP employee mentioned how GenCon was a major source of revenue for PP. It provides funding for all of PP's convention appearances, including a space smack middle of the San Diego Comic Convention. From dealer friend who have stopped going to SDCC because of costs, the spot PP gets in prime real estate right between Hasbro and Cartoon Network . A single dealers table at SDCC (simple folding table ) was $5000. And that was for a spot in the dead end of the hall.

Considering the growth of Warmachine and Hordes since 2010, I think we could expect a substantial boost to their sales figures today. 2010 was when the boom started - in Norway, we started with 4 players then. In January this year, 40 people attended the Nationals, a larger showing than the 40k Nationals held in the adjacent hall. The swedes barely got 20 people (if that) together for "large" tourneys in 2009...in 2012 their 90-seat tourneys get sold out in a couple of months. In the US, Lock & Load doubled its attendance number from 2012 to 2013 and as far as I know, Templecon also grew substantially.

It is a different world these days,

Kaptajn Congoboy wrote:
Considering the growth of Warmachine and Hordes since 2010, I think we could expect a substantial boost to their sales figures today. 2010 was when the boom started - in Norway, we started with 4 players then. In January this year, 40 people attended the Nationals, a larger showing than the 40k Nationals held in the adjacent hall. The swedes barely got 20 people (if that) together for "large" tourneys in 2009...in 2012 their 90-seat tourneys get sold out in a couple of months. In the US, Lock & Load doubled its attendance number from 2012 to 2013 and as far as I know, Templecon also grew substantially.

It is a different world these days,

Well I'm assuming PP has been growing at 18% a year based off of peak GW growth rates. But even that is unlikely. GW had an international distribution chain set up, multiple languages available, and the LotR boom when it saw that rate. That is where I get the assumption that PP is likely at $25 million in revenue right now. Prime Mk2 came out in 2010, so assume three years of great growth.

silent25 wrote:

Some stuff about stuff

Basically the math is speculative to some extent - with some assumptions being made.

If we take as our starting point the 2012 FY Report we have £33,621,000 in sales in North America (US and Canada). We know from past reports that 45% of sales in North America (US and Canada) are through independent retailers...so that would drop that number down to £15,129,450. We know that Warhammer 40K accounts for approximately 50% of the total North American Sales applied ONLY to the US (so of that big number - half of it are the sales in the US, while the other half are WFB sales in the US and Canda, hobby supplies and the like), this is information from the CHS depositions regarding the value of the trademarks in US jurisdictions...so under oath and penalty of perjury, it has to be accurate. So we are now at £7,564,725 for Warhammer 40K sales in the US for independent retailers. We know that 40K outsells WFB 3 to 1 (again, from the depositions). I am assuming that that applies to GW stores, direct sales and independent stores...though there could be some variation there. Taking it at face value though, that would mean that WFB sells £2,521,575 in the US to independent retailers.

The wholesale multiplier varies some. GW uses a tiered program for their retail accounts - the more you sell, the better your discount. They also sell to distributors who sell to retailers. Most distributors are at 50%. Most retailers I have talked to who order from GW get a 40% discount off retail, some of them get 45%. The only ones I have talked to who get less of a discount in the US have been using distributors. The exact mix of those is a bit of a mystery though - I went with the 40% discount across the board though for simplicities sake, though if you wanted you could probably do some calculations to determine roughly how much is sold through trade accounts (and it is possible that that tidbit might have been mentioned in passing in an annual report and I am just forgetting about it).

So, moving on we take the £12,607,875 for 40K and £4,202,625 for WFB. We then take the constant currency exchange rate for the FY - in that year GW used 1.54 dollars per pound for balance sheet calculations and we get $19,416,127 for market size of 40K and $6,472,042 for market size for WFB.

On the PP, convention and online/direct sales issue. It is true - I discounted it. They sell very little direct throughout the year - and even if their convention sales amounted to $100,000 or so...it still wouldn't have a huge impact on their total sales numbers or where it might put them on the chart in relation to GW. I would be less willing to make that same assumption against a company like Wyrd as they do a lot of business online through their store - so those numbers are even a greater unknown.

 Sean_OBrien wrote:

Stuff O'Stuff

OK, I understand your numbers now. But one thing bugs me with these numbers, if GW's 2012 North America numbers equaled $25.9 million in 2012 and PP was still second and fourth with under $25.9 million in sales. Working backwards, PP only has ~$16 million at most in revenue and sales have remained relatively flat since 2010 or sales have only increased in overseas markets and direct sales. Both which people seem to be discounting as being insignificant.

That means PP is unable to translate increased popularity into increased revenue or the increased popularity is not as significant as perceived.

silent25 wrote:

 Sean_OBrien wrote:

Stuff O'Stuff

OK, I understand your numbers now. But one thing bugs me with these numbers, if GW's 2012 North America numbers equaled $25.9 million in 2012 and PP was still second and fourth with under $25.9 million in sales. Working backwards, PP only has ~$16 million at most in revenue and sales have remained relatively flat since 2010 or sales have only increased in overseas markets and direct sales. Both which people seem to be discounting as being insignificant.
B
That means PP is unable to translate increased popularity into increased revenue or the increased popularity is not as significant as perceived.

...in the US. Remember, ICv2 (and the speculative math) is based on the US market.

 Sean_OBrien wrote:
Yep, as opposed to actually continuing to develop product lines - they tend to use anything other than Space Marines as a splash in the pan to get them from point A to point B.

The potential for sales though of something like CoD though is something that they miss out on when they don't attempt to capitalize on the sales. Apocalypse was probably the biggest missed opportunity for them, as I recall at the time that there was much clamoring from the non-Imperial players regarding the possibilities of what might come out in support of their chosen armies. Alas, no love for them - something that actually managed to drive some away as a result.

must admit this puzzled me too, as a returning player from 3rd i was like "oh wow this apoc stuff is cool, the battles must be so much bigger now" before realizing only imperials got anything. not really sure who you're supposed to fight with titans and minotaurs and stuff, other than chaos conversions. course that won't stop me from getting a banesword and finding something to shoot with it.

 Sean_OBrien wrote:

silent25 wrote:

 Sean_OBrien wrote:

Stuff O'Stuff

OK, I understand your numbers now. But one thing bugs me with these numbers, if GW's 2012 North America numbers equaled $25.9 million in 2012 and PP was still second and fourth with under $25.9 million in sales. Working backwards, PP only has ~$16 million at most in revenue and sales have remained relatively flat since 2010 or sales have only increased in overseas markets and direct sales. Both which people seem to be discounting as being insignificant.
B
That means PP is unable to translate increased popularity into increased revenue or the increased popularity is not as significant as perceived.

...in the US. Remember, ICv2 (and the speculative math) is based on the US market.

Yes, and I was arguing you were assuming too much for the North American market and not taking into account other revenue sources online, at cons, or abroad. Now that I turn the argument around, you quickly change your tune. Plus, people have stated here how a couple years ago there was no presence overseas. So that $15 million in 2010 likely was almost all of North America. This means PP has been growing less than 7% a year at most in North America. Hardly the 18% I was comparing to GW during its LotR years or the 15% leading up to it. If it had experienced a 15% growth, it should have been #1 and #3, not #2 and #4.

 GreySkull wrote:
GW is interested in only one thing: selling minis and the accessories that go with them (i.e. paints, decals, books, etc.). They are a miniatures company, unlike Catalyst Game Labs which prints only the books, they get someone else to do the casting of minis. These numbers clearly show that yes, they need to "Get back to where they once belonged" to quote a Beatles song. But it's apt I believe in this case as it's what made them so successful in such a niche market.

What I'm tired of seeing is:

1.)New editions coming out ever four or so years that make pretty much my entire army obsolete, forcing me to buy a thousand dollars worth of stuff (or more) just to stay current.

2.)Army books that take forever to release, only to see the last book is coming out just about when the next edition of the game is to being announced and close to release.

3.)Price points that are, quite frankly, ridiculous. Most new players are kids that have mommy and daddy's money to spend and are usually spoiled-rotten little bastards I wouldn't entertain with a game if they paid me (with, of course, mommy and daddy's money).

4.)(And this seems to be a growing norm within the gaming community all around. No gaming company is responsible for bad behavior) aforementioned spoiled-rotten little bastards and the snot-nosed larger spoiled-rotten bastards they turn into. You know who you are and yes, I'm calling each and every one of you man-and-woman children out with this post. Get a life, get out of your parent's basement, and start acting like adults. You guys are despicable. I've tried getting friends who are interested in Warmachine and 40k to play, but when I took them to the local gaming store, the actions of these "children-in-adult-bodies" were enough to turn them off. Even after I tell them that not all gamers are like that, they still said no and wanted to leave the store just to get away from the man-children inside. None of them wanted to come back. Some of them like to call victory a turn before as they can "predict" how the turn will go, I've even had one guy show it to me. I screwed him up by simply smashing forward with everything in a game of 40k, dropping all tactical acumen. The s.o.b. then had the audacity to start bitching to the store owner. I'd won and he hated it. I sold my Chaos Marines stuff after that. I've got better things to do (and I'm not desperate enough) than to play a game that is actually quite useless (like jewelry useless) with a bunch of babies.

Harharharharhar Please see my thread hear my friend. I wish you lived in my area......

http://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/516245.page#5431489

I still am not seeing what you think is the disagreement. For PP growth in the US, I used an average of hobby game growth numbers which I obtained from industry white papers. Most of their growth in the past 3 years or so has been overseas...so while growth in the US was down around 6% per year, overseas growth was much higher.

The total PP sales figures are not really an issue with the lists or my numbers though as the list and the calculations only deal with independent sales for both PP and GW. Or I am missing something that you might think I am implying beyond that.

 Sean_OBrien wrote:
I still am not seeing what you think is the disagreement. For PP growth in the US, I used an average of hobby game growth numbers which I obtained from industry white papers. Most of their growth in the past 3 years or so has been overseas...so while growth in the US was down around 6% per year, overseas growth was much higher.

The total PP sales figures are not really an issue with the lists or my numbers though as the list and the calculations only deal with independent sales for both PP and GW. Or I am missing something that you might think I am implying beyond that.

Well you didn't list any "white papers" or other sources. You only used the $15 million both of us heard and translated that in ~$25 million in sales. When I state your total numbers are high, you downplay international, online, and other sources. When I point out that means PP is not growing that fast, you starting saying how your numbers are based on "other factors" and it actually all from overseas growth.

And now you are quoting "around 6%"? You didn't seem eager to divulge that information earlier. Plus if that is the industry average, that means PP is only growing with the rest of the industry and not seeing any exceptional growth in the US. Again, means all the talk of people playing it everywhere is the US bunk.

silent25 wrote:

 Sean_OBrien wrote:
I still am not seeing what you think is the disagreement. For PP growth in the US, I used an average of hobby game growth numbers which I obtained from industry white papers. Most of their growth in the past 3 years or so has been overseas...so while growth in the US was down around 6% per year, overseas growth was much higher.

The total PP sales figures are not really an issue with the lists or my numbers though as the list and the calculations only deal with independent sales for both PP and GW. Or I am missing something that you might think I am implying beyond that.

Well you didn't list any "white papers" or other sources. You only used the $15 million both of us heard and translated that in ~$25 million in sales. When I state your total numbers are high, you downplay international, online, and other sources. When I point out that means PP is not growing that fast, you starting saying how your numbers are based on "other factors" and it actually all from overseas growth.

And now you are quoting "around 6%"? You didn't seem eager to divulge that information earlier. Plus if that is the industry average, that means PP is only growing with the rest of the industry and not seeing any exceptional growth in the US. Again, means all the talk of people playing it everywhere is the US bunk.

I can understand the reluctance, if any, to share out certain parts of information.

Sometimes you can only divulge certain amounts of information if you want to keep your sources viable. I collect data as well but I'm not going to give out everything that I know and have data mined for years on the interwebs. Just because of potential of said information to be used against me if I want to make an investment into a business.

Also as big as the gaming industry is there is not that big of a circle of influence. Go to GAMA and see for yourself. You can get first hand info there and have fun there as well.

Finally if you subscribe to Icv2 and NPD Group you can get a good amount of information about what market you are interested in.

Hope this helps if any.

silent25 wrote:

 Sean_OBrien wrote:
I still am not seeing what you think is the disagreement. For PP growth in the US, I used an average of hobby game growth numbers which I obtained from industry white papers. Most of their growth in the past 3 years or so has been overseas...so while growth in the US was down around 6% per year, overseas growth was much higher.

The total PP sales figures are not really an issue with the lists or my numbers though as the list and the calculations only deal with independent sales for both PP and GW. Or I am missing something that you might think I am implying beyond that.

Well you didn't list any "white papers" or other sources. You only used the $15 million both of us heard and translated that in ~$25 million in sales. When I state your total numbers are high, you downplay international, online, and other sources. When I point out that means PP is not growing that fast, you starting saying how your numbers are based on "other factors" and it actually all from overseas growth.

And now you are quoting "around 6%"? You didn't seem eager to divulge that information earlier. Plus if that is the industry average, that means PP is only growing with the rest of the industry and not seeing any exceptional growth in the US. Again, means all the talk of people playing it everywhere is the US bunk.

I didn't list any specific sources for those numbers, though they are available - some in paper form (Internal Correspondence Magazine provides growth figures per quarter for each hobby game sector) as well as some which are distributed as part of investment groups research. Sources are also personal contacts, who I didn't name by name but I did mention...

Regarding the number, it actually isn't representative of global sales. It is US sales + retail margin... Remember, PP does the majority of their business through distributors - so their $15 million in sales 3 years ago accounted for roughly $25 million of the market. Again, I have my reasons for believing the split is accurate in terms of how much of their sales are US versus the rest of the world - though it is hard to prove something based on hearsay. I believe it is accurate - if you don't that is fine.

I don't think that that statement implies what you seem to think it implies. I didn't switch anything around at all. You seemed to think I was counting global PP sales versus US GW sales. I was not. The reason I chose to go with the average across the board is it is a conservative estimate for PP's sales figures. I assume that they are doing at least as well as the average since they are holding their position on the listings, as well as other information which I gather from conversations. If PP is growing with the rest of the industry, that would not mean that all the talk of PP being played everywhere is bunk (a statement I have not made...though it is inline somewhat with what I have seen). What it does mean is that it is holding its position relative to the rest of the games. 3 years ago they already had pretty good penetration - if they grew 6% per year since then that would mean they now have pretty good penetration plus roughly 20%. Up until about 2 years ago - they had production issues that were limiting their growth as well. None of that would mean that their popularity would need to be lower for any reason at all.

I am still not sure what the issue is with the $15/25 million is though. Those would have been global numbers in 2010 (based on your source - I think I mine would have put those numbers at 2009 or so though with the production issues they were running into...it is quite possible that they stalled out around that number for a few years). The portion of their global numbers which is US only is based on the hearsay which I mention above. I do believe it to be accurate - if you don't that is fine. None of that though points to high/low/down played international sales (I don't - in fact I purposely don't touch those issues as they are not within the scope of the information).


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pax_imperialis wrote:

 Sean_OBrien wrote:
Yep, as opposed to actually continuing to develop product lines - they tend to use anything other than Space Marines as a splash in the pan to get them from point A to point B.

The potential for sales though of something like CoD though is something that they miss out on when they don't attempt to capitalize on the sales. Apocalypse was probably the biggest missed opportunity for them, as I recall at the time that there was much clamoring from the non-Imperial players regarding the possibilities of what might come out in support of their chosen armies. Alas, no love for them - something that actually managed to drive some away as a result.

must admit this puzzled me too, as a returning player from 3rd i was like "oh wow this apoc stuff is cool, the battles must be so much bigger now" before realizing only imperials got anything. not really sure who you're supposed to fight with titans and minotaurs and stuff, other than chaos conversions. course that won't stop me from getting a banesword and finding something to shoot with it.

Even more than just within their core market - they missed a huge potential market outside of gamers. I recall when they first released the Baneblade kit it was reviewed by a few different straight model sites and one magazine as a possible option for sci-fi (or non-historical) modelers. It was actually fairly well received too. However, they also speculated about the possibility of things like an Eldar or Tau super heavy in plastic as well. When those didn't come to pass a lot of their potential customers sort of faded back into piles of plastic from Tamiya and Hobby Boss. I know there was a fairly substantial mecha site that was contemplating the possibilities that it might mean for future titans in plastic as well. Again, just some variety to mix in with their regular flavors of Votoms, Patlabors, Valkyries and Gundam. Again, because it didn't happen - those potential new customers faded back into the background.

The chunky nature of their regular releases doesn't have much appeal in those markets, but things like a Warhound, Revenant, Orca or Scorpion were hoped for openly as their proportions were more inline with the oversized weapons.

OK, I think I see where I got your number mixed. Though 6% still doesn't sound like a company that should be blazing across the country. Still from your numbers you assumed that 2/3 of PP's sales were US based? Also, one error I believe you have in your numbers, isn't PP's wholesale price 50%, not 60% MSRP?


*edit* though that 15/25 seems to be other sources, not yours.

*edit2* And I'm referring to 25 million in sales would imply a 40% discount, not 50%.

 Grugknuckle wrote:

 Sean_OBrien wrote:

I agree, though I dont agree with them cutting their stores to one man shops. If they are going to have a retail arm, they should have a retail arm that is properly staffed to run a game store. If they cant do that without loosing money (which they seem to be incapable of doing) then close the store...dont hobble it.

With those unprofitable stores out of the way, they could revive the Outrider program and actually work to support LGS by coordinating the global events both in them and in their large bunker stores (of which they really only need a dozen or two world wide).

I think this is a great idea and frankly, there are many local game stores that have felt that GW has been squeezing them for a long time. Most privately owned game stores provide tables where you can play games - any game, not just a GW game - and feel a little betrayed when GW opens up a competing store nearby. They work hard to provide a friendly place to play, providing the community that GW refuses to supply, and they are rewarded by having to fight off a corporate chain. Your FLGS cannot survive if you buy your mini's online or from another GW store and just bring them to play on the tables at the FLGS. GW has treated these small businesses as the enemy for a long time when all along it has been the FLGS that provides the community.

One point with this is that I have no problem buying online...I also have no problem with a store saying if you want to play here - you need to buy here (in the same way, I have no problem with GW stores saying you can only use GW minis to play in GW stores or officially sponsored GW tournaments). If we go back to WotC Adventure Game survey (I know...several years old, but it is the only source of this particular data that I know of) you see that miniature wargamers are about 2% of the US population. This ends up being somewhere around 4 million people who play miniature wargames every month (based on the 15-64 age range). It may have gone up...might have gone down - but it is a number we can work with. If you were to figure that each hobby store could maybe support 100 people who game their throughout the month (some being larger...most being much smaller - and only addressing people who actually game in store) you would need 40,000 independent stores to provide for all their gaming needs.

http://www.rpg.net/news+reviews/wotcdemo.html

In the US there are roughly 26,000 hobby, game and toy stores in the US (IBSIS market survey) - and that includes stores like Toys'R US, Hobby Lobby and Michaels...there really are not enough local game stores to actually cater to the gaming needs of the whole gaming population...even if they were motivated to play in stores. I see absolutely no reason why a gamer who does not play in a store should need to pay higher retail prices to support that store. I would guess that many of those who game at home or other locations would tend to agree with that position as well. Limiting their ability to choose where their money goes doesn't actually do the hobby any actual service in terms of growing it - and more often than not would have minimal impact on the local game community health.


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silent25 wrote:
OK, I think I see where I got your number mixed. Though 6% still doesn't sound like a company that should be blazing across the country. Still from your numbers you assumed that 2/3 of PP's sales were US based? Also, one error I believe you have in your numbers, isn't PP's wholesale price 50%, not 60% MSRP?

I believe their numbers to distributors is 50% and retailers is 60% - I am not sure on the exact split between direct accounts versus distributor supplied accounts for them. 50% would give them a slightly higher market share, but again - some of this is just defaulting to default settings.

I am not too sure why they should be blazing across the country though. If you were to rewind GW to about the same point in their business - it would have been back around 1990/91 time period. PP is likely dealing with a lot of the same issues that they had at that time in their growth and I wouldn't be surprised if PP did start blazing across the country (and the rest of the world) in the next year or two. Remember, GW/Citadel was already 13 years old in 1991 and they had quite a catalog of figures in the fantasy line up already. 40K was their second major miniature game release and it was only a few years old at the time. GW had just recently (late 1980s) opened their US location for distribution and casting. 1991 and 1992 were relatively slow in terms of growth, and my understanding is that that was comparable going backwards to the release of Rogue Trader (which gave them a pretty big bump - but then steady again).

Compare that to PP now, they have Hordes and Warmachine. They just recently opened a location in the UK to handle distribution and casting in Europe. The second major edition of Warmachine is only a few years old... Anything look familiar?

 Sean_OBrien wrote:

I believe their numbers to distributors is 50% and retailers is 60% - I am not sure on the exact split between direct accounts versus distributor supplied accounts for them. 50% would give them a slightly higher market share, but again - some of this is just defaulting to default settings.

I am not too sure why they should be blazing across the country though. If you were to rewind GW to about the same point in their business - it would have been back around 1990/91 time period. PP is likely dealing with a lot of the same issues that they had at that time in their growth and I wouldn't be surprised if PP did start blazing across the country (and the rest of the world) in the next year or two. Remember, GW/Citadel was already 13 years old in 1991 and they had quite a catalog of figures in the fantasy line up already. 40K was their second major miniature game release and it was only a few years old at the time. GW had just recently (late 1980s) opened their US location for distribution and casting. 1991 and 1992 were relatively slow in terms of growth, and my understanding is that that was comparable going backwards to the release of Rogue Trader (which gave them a pretty big bump - but then steady again).

Compare that to PP now, they have Hordes and Warmachine. They just recently opened a location in the UK to handle distribution and casting in Europe. The second major edition of Warmachine is only a few years old... Anything look familiar?

True, but GW had been bought out at that point and had significant financial backing and went public in 1994 giving them access to further capital. PP is still privately owned by its founder. The exact formula isn't there yet. But I personally believe Wilson is actively looking to sell the company. Living in Los Angeles 1,100 miles away from PP means he is already checking out.

Also, Rick Priestly stated it was 4th edition WHFB that caused things to gang busters at GW, not 40k. The success caught them all off guard.

Back to GW, does any know who Ruffer LLP is? They appear to have taken a 8% stake in the company since after the 2012 annual report. They were not a listed share holder of note previously.


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Just to add, PP also has to contend with far more competition than GW did back in the 90's. I am actually seeing Mantic as launching a bigger challenge. They are working on mass production of quality figures at a cheap price. Their kickstarter gave them the funds to improve their line and figure quality significantly.
While PP is lower cost vs GW for a whole army, Mantic makes both look bad. Why buy a Colossus when you can get a whole army from Mantic for the same price.
Kickstarter in general has allowed a lot of small companies to get funding and start competing. PP is going to have to deal with the same termites that are eating away at GW.

Just to add, PP also has to contend with far more competition than GW did back in the 90's. I am actually seeing Mantic as launching a bigger challenge. They are working on mass production of quality figures at a cheap price. Their kickstarter gave them the funds to improve their line and figure quality significantly.
While PP is lower cost vs GW for a whole army, Mantic makes both look bad. Why buy a Colossus when you can get a whole army from Mantic for the same price.
Kickstarter in general has allowed a lot of small companies to get funding and start competing. PP is going to have to deal with the same termites that are eating away at GW.

I suppose it's poetic justice that several former GW employees are writing content for Mantic's games.

 Grugknuckle wrote:

I suppose it's poetic justice that several former GW employees are writing content for Mantic's games.

It's not just Mantic; many companies and major releases are former GW employees (Warlord Games, Mantic Games, The Army Painter, Privateer Press [Mike McVey], games including Bolt Action, Dust Warfare, Hail Caesar, Black Powder, Deus Vult, Robotech Tactics, Kings of War, Warpath, and others... hell even Flames of War is Phil Yates who wrote Warhammer Panzer Battles for GW who didn't pick it up)

I find it amazing that Battlefront of "Flames of War" Fame, seem to be able to create a new book every 2 months, with several in development concurrently.

Some of these books are much bigger than current Codex size. Flames of War is one of the most balanced systems around. They are getting a little more corporate but their release schedule is much better than GW.

GW needs to shrink, cull the Middle management, chop off the High street Retail chain, in favour on 15-20 Regional centres with bigger premises and numerous tables and facilities (Ideally near the highstreet but maybe upper floors/ basements where rents are cheaper) and become more venue orientated. They also need to support the FLGS scene more. This is a slow, agonising Death - Finecast was a Fiasco it damaged the reputation for good quality products and the price hike was a final insult.

Games Workshop Customer Service Training - "Ah good sir, I see you buying a piece of mis-cast Crap from our Flavour-of-month-army-codex, I'll just add 15% to your bill. A recession you say? No I think you'll find the economy is doing wonderfully. Anything else today, nothing for little Johnny? Maybe a £200 Starter set? No, ok. But would sir kindly stand still in the doorway, it will assist me in my run up, otherwise how can I kick you accurately in the balls?"