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rigeld2 wrote:
I'm sorry - I wasn't aware that a single example was considered evidence.

Great, then you have learned something today already.

 Manchu wrote:

rigeld2 wrote:
I'm sorry - I wasn't aware that a single example was considered evidence.

Great, then you have learned something today already.

Please respond to the rest of my post as well.

And no, a single data point isn't evidence of anything other than a single data point. It's literally exactly like me saying "No one at my FLGS has even heard of RRT." (which is a true statement) and then concluding that no one has heard of it.

Your argument is an example of false equivalence. An anecdote about the patrons of your LGS is not the same as a national distributor's retail arm listing a game in its top seller list.

 Manchu wrote:
Your argument is an example of false equivalence. An anecdote about the patrons of your LGS is not the same as a national distributor's retail arm listing a game in its top seller list.

Both are individual data points. Attributing more value to one than the other is called a "bias". Without more data points, both are equally valid.

I know there are enough data points to disprove my LGS example. I do not know (and have been mocked/rebuked when I requested them, so I'm forced to assume they don't exist) there are more data points to support frpgames' top seller list.

Anecdotal evidence isn't. And a single retialers top seller list is still anecdotal evidence.

Now you are trying to justify one fallacy (false equivalence) by deploying another (appeal to authority: "data point," "bias").

 Manchu wrote:
Now you are trying to justify one fallacy (false equivalence) by deploying another (appeal to authority: "data point," "bias").

Um. No.

I'm trying to discuss facts here. Fact: the frpgames top seller list is a single data point. Fact: That top seller list included (for some period of time, I didn't check again after that day for various reasons) a miniature bag. Fact: It takes more than a single data point to plot a trend in either direction.

I've asked for more data points and been mocked every time. That's all I want. I'm not saying the game is failing or that it's gak. I'm saying that "frpgames top seller means it's not failing" isn't a supportable statement.

https://www.princeton.edu/~achaney/tmve/wiki100k/docs/Appeal_to_authority.html By saying "frpgames shows the game is successful therefore the game is successful" is an appeal to authority. That's explicitly not what I'm doing. I'm saying "frpgames is an interesting data point - do we have more?"

And now you post strawman arguments ... are you just working your way through all the fallacies?

This is really quite simple. The fact that RRT is on FRP's top seller list is evidence undermining the notion (itself unsupported by evidence so far) that RTT is a flop. The inability to acknowledge even this would be stunning absent the pages and pages of committed negativity. The argument that the person who brought this evidence to light is a fanatic, however, did surprise me.

 Manchu wrote:
And now you post strawman arguments ... are you just working your way through all the fallacies?

What strawman? Are you just naming fallacies that don't apply to appear smart?

This is really quite simple. The fact that RTT is on FRP's top seller list is evidence undermining the notion (itself unsupported by evidence so far) that RTT is a flop. The inability to acknowledge even this would be stunning absent the pages and pages of committed negativity. The argument that the person who brought this evidence to light is a fanatic, however, did surprise me.

I never said that RTT is a flop (now who's strawmaning?) I said, and I'll quote so it's not confusing:

rigeld2 wrote:
There's another echo chamber?

... Seriously, one e-tailer doesn't tell the whole story.
Needs more data.

Which is a fact. One etailer doesn't tell the whole story, regardless of who that etailer is. Saying that "frpgames is the distribution arm of Warpath (which is actually Golden now) and therefore is absolute fact" is an appeal to authority. Saying that we don't need data beyond that is an appeal to authority.

I welcome actual debate and discussion. Which is why I originally posted what I did. Instead, I was met with:

 judgedoug wrote:

rigeld2 wrote:

... Seriously, one e-tailer doesn't tell the whole story.
Needs more data.

and cue the
"Top Seller Lists from one of the largest online gaming retailers (and in fact, the retail side of one of the largest gaming distributors in North America) don't mean anything, not when my perpetual feedback loop is telling me the game is DOA, unsuccessful, and terrible!"

The very definition of appeal to authority. And yet *I'm* the one that's called out and mocked? Really? How do you expect me to respond?

Maybe we ought to focus on what we can agree on? For example, I bet we can agree that one top seller list does not tell the whole story. We can also agree that nothing else posted ITT tells the whole story, either, correct?

 Manchu wrote:
Maybe we ought to focus on what we can agree on? For example, I bet we can agree that one top seller list does not tell the whole story. We can also agree that nothing else posted ITT tells the whole story, either, correct?

Correct.
Which is what I pointed out. And was mocked for.

I am willing to bet a good amount of dollars that you were actually mocked for requesting more evidence regarding the proposition that RRT is not a failure in contrast to no one ITT asking for any evidence that RRT is a failure. That is, it was not so much a personal matter as a threadwide matter (hence initially mentioning an echochamber). But judgedoug can speak for himself in that regard.

In any case, I wonder if we can also agree on this point: The fact that RTT is on FRP's top seller list is evidence undermining the notion (itself unsupported by evidence so far) that RRT is a flop.

All that list tells us is that FRP decided to put it on their list of top sellers.

It doesn't give us context as to how those number line up. Glancing at their most current list, for all we know Imperial Assault has sold eighteen million copies, Mice And Mystics has sold eighteen thousand and Robotech has sold eighteen. I mean, hyperbole for humour here, but it really doesn't *say* anything indicative either way.

Despite being their "third best seller", it hasn't even been rated as of the time of this posting, which raises questions of how engaged that fan base might be (see: my commentary a few pages back regarding the dearth of discussion around the product anywhere but Mike's page and here, essentially).

There's is a famous saying that "the plural of anecdote is not data". If RRT is indeed selling hotly, there should be corroborating evidence. CSI's top sales chart lists like 30 items, and RRT isn't among them, though they DO include Magic cards in the mix, and those sell like hotcakes. Miniature Market doesn't seem to have a Hot List.

Asking for supporting evidence should not be an egregious offense. A sample size of 'one' is not in and of itself indicative of anything, and for all we know is cherry picked not because "FRP are the retail end of a distributor", but because it seems to be among the few sources that fit the agenda being advanced; that we're all whiny and RRT is a smash hit and we can cry and cry and cry or whatever.

I also asked for a list of the largest game distributors, because people keep referencing it and I'd like to see the info for myself. Which also shouldn't be a controversial request.

I take no issue with asking for more evidence and never have. The problem I do see is asking for evidence for one proposition but not for its alternative. And actually, the problem I cited was the inability to recognize evidence as evidence.

 Manchu wrote:
I am willing to bet a good amount of dollars that you were actually mocked for requesting more evidence regarding the proposition that RTT is not a failure in contrast to no one ITT asking for any evidence that RTT is a failure. That is, it was not so much a personal matter as a threadwide matter (hence initially mentioning an echochamber). But judgedoug can speak for himself in that regard.

Considering he quoted my statement, and the tone of his statement, I tend to disagree with that. But since he hasn't further responded to me directly, instead choosing to mock the thread in general, I suppose we'll never have an answer. His word choice was rather rude, however.

In any case, I wonder if we can also agree on this point: The fact that RTT is on FRP's top seller list is evidence undermining the notion (itself unsupported by evidence so far) that RTT is a flop.

No, I don't agree with that. Sure, there's no evidence to support that RTT is a flop (no direct evidence anyway - the 3 LGS I've been to having a total of 4 people knowing it exists, one of them being me is anecdotal still) but FRP's top seller list doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things.
Since, as I said, there was a mini bag on there at one point - and seriously, how much volume of bags do they have? If it's low, then it doesn't take much to get on the top sellers list. If it's high - WTF?! I just seriously don't believe there is that much movement on a single specific bag.

Ignoring the fact that nothing on here http://frpgames.com/cart.php?m=search&s=fate+reforged is on the best sellers list and all. The newest M:TG expansion isn't on the best sellers list the weekend it releases? And we should just take this at face value?

rigeld2 wrote:
FRP's top seller list doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things

"Doesn't mean much" or "means nothing"?

rigeld2 wrote:
And we should just take this at face value?

Rhetoric aside, what is your actual argument on this point? Do you mean that the only explanation of Fate Reforged being absent is that the list is meaningless?

 Manchu wrote:

rigeld2 wrote:
FRP's top seller list doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things

"Doesn't mean much" or "means nothing"?

Exactly what I said. It's a single data point that's no more important than any other data point.

rigeld2 wrote:
And we should just take this at face value?

Rhetoric aside, what is your actual argument on this point? Do you mean that the only explanation of Fate Reforged being absent is that the list is meaningless?

No. It's suspect and without explanation, doubly so. If you think the list should be accepted as absolute evidence that the game is selling well, explain how the top seller list is missing Fate Reforged. Did they somehow get less Fate Reforged product than RTT product?
That'd be a hell of a mistake, and not something the "retail arm of the largest NA distributor" would make. I can think of only one reason it's not on there, and that reason invalidates the list completely. I don't think it's true, which is why I'm willing to accept it as a data point.

rigeld2 wrote:
I can think of only one reason it's not on there

And that would be?

And what, in your mind, is the difference between evidence and a "data point"?

 Manchu wrote:

rigeld2 wrote:
I can think of only one reason it's not on there

And that would be?

That the list is cooked to exclude certain items. Since the list seems to fluctuate at least daily, I can't accept that this game:

http://frpgames.com/cart.php?m=product_detail&p=103698#.VMkgQJB0aPw

outsold Fate Reforged.

And what, in your mind, is the difference between evidence and a "data point"?

You use data points to build evidence. The more data, the more evidence. I use them interchangeably really - or try to. If I seem to not have, it's likely a miswording by me due to meds.

It also seems like you've got a hostile tone - I'm sure you're not intending that but I wanted to let you know.
I'm inferring that based on how you're cutting up my posts and only responding to small sections instead of to the entire post.

Evidence should be corroborated. If they presented numbers of sold units, that'd show us the scope of what their list entails.

If other sites also had it popping up the rankings, we could infer some positive things as well.

Without corroboration, it's an outlier. It's enough info to say "yup, it sure is on that list, but what that list represents objectively we cannot say".

It's subjective, at this point.

And frankly, was put forth by someone who relishes in trolling (by their own admission) against a strawman argument that few people have expressed.

Sure, tons of people have commented concerns about how well or not it might be selling, and some have mentioned local stores struggling to move product or to find actual players, but other than Rick (Hi Rick!) I can't think of many people here who have proclaimed it flat out dead/failed. I think the common sentiment seems to generally be one of concern mixed with "whelp, Adepticon/Gencon ought to be interesting".

Asterios wrote:

 JohnHwangDD wrote:
Oh, OK. I thought he was trying to compare how PB and SJG ran their KSs.

If the focus is corporate financial health, yes, SJG is clearly doing better, due to Munchkin being popular and paying the bills.

well I am going by the company as a whole.

No problem - I made a (wrong) assumption because I misunderstood. Sorry 'bout that.

____

Talizvar wrote:

 JohnHwangDD wrote:
What do you mean, "SJG did so much better"?
Ogre Deluxe had horrible communication. Wave 1 was a year late. No action on many of the Stretch Goals, despite it being years later. SJG still owes us 30 minutes of music and a bunch of scenarios (that Steve totally fething lied about working on during the KS). Not to mention the Car Wars Kickstarter, the 2nd edition Ogre Miniatures rulebook (print and PDF), the Ogre computer game (in any form), and the Ogre expansion (again, anything will do). SJG has basically done nothing, and most backers have given up on SJG ever following through on the promises SJG made.
If Palladium actually finishes the remaining items within the next 15 months, they will have outdone SJG by a wide margin. Not only will Palladium have delivered a larger project within a shorter timeframe, but they will have done so against 2 layers of approval slowing things down (HG and Bandai).
Based on their demonstrated incompetence and failure to even attempt progress, I will never back another SJG project.

Bbbbbut the box is so huge! I keep looking at the darn thing at our FLGS and am afraid I might buy the thing, punch out cardboard models or not:

Spoiler:

LONG time ago I think I had Ogre on the Commodore 64, was a fun game.
Scary to think even a half attempt at it to modern day standards, I can agree that bad implementation of a single source IP holder can be very frustrating.
Read many of the "Comment" section stuff, not nearly as nasty as the Robotech one but can plainly see some goals probably not going to be met.

Car wars was awesome.
I could say the same thing about it as Ogre above.

Steve Jackson has kinda the opposite problem as PB they tend to shoot for too much and have no back-up plan.

Plus, they made their own IP and they each were a phenomenon, Rifts never quite became anything for PB and Robotech is licensed to them.

Seems odd things do not go well for them (again taking on too much I think) look at the list of actual employees:
http://www.sjgames.com/general/staff.html

Wow, read wayyyy too much about SJ games writing this.
Tempted to see if I can make a cross-over of Ogre and Battletech.

The box IS so big. Ludicrously, ridiculously, stupidly big. It's so oversized, you can hardly get your arm around to carry the thing (also too heavy to comfortably carry one-handed). Right now, mine sits in the Closet of Shame, and wow, does it take up a lot of space. Worse, you cannot even store it vertically, or all of the zillions of punched counters will fall out of the trays. Imagine spending hours punching the things, sorting them, putting them in their correct slots, and then hearing the sound of an African rain stick as you struggle to put it up on the shelf... In my case, I only backed for the hardbacked maps (and the promised 2nd Ed Ogre Miniatures rulebook. I am glad to have my glorious Deluxe GEV-scale GEV and Shockwave maps for my Ogre Miniatures collection. I don't know if I'll ever get around to punching my counters for the reason above.

That said, you should strongly consider buying it during the next Black Friday / clearance sale. It's got a crazy amount of stuff in the box.


Gonna reminisce a bit...

Computer Ogre had a very good AI (I played the PC version). In the modern era, I'd would make it a head-to-head Android / iPhone game, stripping out the AI requirement.

Classic Car Wars was awesome, very much like 40k with listbuilding and metagaming strategy before the game. Then it bloated up with nonsense like boats and aircraft. Then it got pared back too something approaching the Car Wars Card Game using Hot Wheels. Now, it looks like SJG is going the X-Wing route. It's kind of like watching Oprah's weight. IMO, Car Wars' time has passed, as there is a lot of design tension due to Car Wars trying to represent things that exist in the real world, trying to balance RPG (league management), listbuiding (car creation), tactical play (battles), and simulation vs abstraction vs projection. Definitely not backing any Car Wars KS, tho!

Ogre has kept the same engine since the beginning, with very minor tweaks. This is good, as the Ogre engine didn't really need a lot of tweaking.

SJG has the luxury of the Munchkin teat to suckle. It's a great ride for them.

RIFTS has a problem of having wild power fluctuations and a massive breadth of stuff that requires an excellent GM to make work into something resembling coherence. It's kind of a mess to get started, and it's kind of a mess to play - that's why it never took off.

I'm pretty sure Ogre + Battletech has been done. I would be shocked if it hadn't, but I never really followed BT that much.

 Forar wrote:
Evidence should be corroborated. If they presented numbers of sold units, that'd show us the scope of what their list entails.

If other sites also had it popping up the rankings, we could infer some positive things as well.

Without corroboration, it's an outlier. It's enough info to say "yup, it sure is on that list, but what that list represents objectively we cannot say".

It's subjective, at this point.

And frankly, was put forth by someone who relishes in trolling (by their own admission) against a strawman argument that few people have expressed.

Sure, tons of people have commented concerns about how well or not it might be selling, and some have mentioned local stores struggling to move product or to find actual players, but other than Rick (Hi Rick!) I can't think of many people here who have proclaimed it flat out dead/failed. I think the common sentiment seems to generally be one of concern mixed with "whelp, Adepticon/Gencon ought to be interesting".

Manchu, this. This is my overall point.

Dissect my posts however you want, but this is really what it boils down to.

Fact: Judgedoug and Manchu play RRT together.

Suggestion: That a more impartial mod watch this thread.

 Swabby wrote:
Fact: Judgedoug and Manchu play RRT together.

Suggestion: That a more impartial mod watch this thread.

I disagree. I believe Manchu can be impartial until proven otherwise.

rigeld2 wrote:

 Manchu wrote:

rigeld2 wrote:
FRP's top seller list doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things

"Doesn't mean much" or "means nothing"?

Exactly what I said. It's a single data point that's no more important than any other data point.

No, not exactly. I will take FRP's "single data point" based on $M sales as being far more important than your non-data from a single store based on $k sales.

Unless you are in the industry, and do business comparable in volume to FRP, you lack neither the insight nor the data to refute FRP's data, given that FRP's "single data point" represents the conglomeration of several-fold more individual transactions across a much wider footprint than what you might be aware of.

 JohnHwangDD wrote:

rigeld2 wrote:

 Manchu wrote:

rigeld2 wrote:
FRP's top seller list doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things

"Doesn't mean much" or "means nothing"?

Exactly what I said. It's a single data point that's no more important than any other data point.

No, not exactly. I will take FRP's "single data point" based on $M sales as being far more important than your non-data from a single store based on $k sales.

Unless you are in the industry, and do business comparable in volume to FRP, you lack neither the insight nor the data to refute FRP's data, given that FRP's "single data point" represents the conglomeration of several-fold more individual transactions across a much wider footprint than what you might be aware of.

Hello there "Appeal to Authority".
I'll refute your statements with "Prove that FRP's Best Seller list isn't manipulated (because it seems to be, based on evidence) and provide actual transaction data instead of assumptions."

Taking FRP for more than what it is and assuming they're infallible is simply wrong. It's a single data point. If it's accurate, there's more out there. I haven't found any, despite actively looking for them.

rigeld2 wrote:
That the list is cooked to exclude certain items.

I think that is almost certainly the case. It seems to me that the only reason to maintain such a list on a store website is to reinforce sales of popular items. I don't take it for an absolute list of FRP's monthly (or weekly? daily?) sales. Nor do I think that invalidates the list as an indication that FRP has been selling a respectable amount of RRT starters.

rigeld2 wrote:
I use them interchangeably really - or try to.

Why use them interchangably if there is a difference between them? To get down to it, we both agree that this "data point" does not prove either that RRT is a flop or that it is a success. Whether something can be considered evidence, however, is not contingent on whether it alone is sufficient to prove or disprove a proposition.

rigeld2 wrote:
you're cutting up my posts and only responding to small sections instead of to the entire post

No offense meant with this practice. I do not respond to points that assume the points with which I take issue. It's my "one thing at a time" rule of thumb.

rigeld2 wrote:
That the list is cooked to exclude certain items.

Since the list seems to fluctuate at least daily, I can't accept that Golem Arcana outsold Fate Reforged.

And your evidence that the list is "cooked" is what, exactly? Do you have some internal view into FRPgames sales data, that you are able to provide to refute the listing that they provide?

The current Top 20 list shows:
1. Star Wars : Imperial Assault
2. Mice and Mystics Expansion: Downwood Tales
3. Robotech RPG Tactics
...
20. Golem Arcana
That doesn't seem unreasonable at all. SWIA is selling huge - it's super-hot on BGG. M&M is a huge seller, so no reason to expect the expansion wouldn't do well. RRT has great nostalgic value as pre-marketing. Golem Arcana barely makes the list.

What evidence do you have that Fate Reforged should be a stronger seller than Golem Arcana? You keep talking about data and evidence, but you have nothing to add here.

 Manchu wrote:

rigeld2 wrote:
FRP's top seller list doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things

"Doesn't mean much" or "means nothing"?

rigeld2 wrote:
And we should just take this at face value?

Rhetoric aside, what is your actual argument on this point? Do you mean that the only explanation of Fate Reforged being absent is that the list is meaningless?

Manchu: The frustration is that there is no clear supporting objective evidence of retail sales / units sold in comparison to any other product to measure "success" RRT.

Yes, we all have our own pet theories but what data we do see out there is also suspect.

Is a "best sellers list" used as a marketing ploy to try to sell more of that product or is it actually based on units sold in a given time frame?
With so many publishers and distributors as private companies they are under no obligation to publish sales figures.

The arguing over the various arguments (I swear I will make a drinking game of "strawman") with a condescending tone will not lead to a civilized discussion.

Passing judgment over the whole thread is your opinion but has been everything from informative to therapeutic to me so I applaud what I have seen negative or not.

Suggesting how to do things better (PB has started some things mentioned), helping others, basically figuring out a lessons learned because it is very likely PB will do another kickstarter and we are all trying to decide if it is worth diving in again.

Manchu, I really do not understand sometimes what you are trying to "contribute" in these threads.

 Swabby wrote:
Fact: Judgedoug and Manchu play RRT together.

Suggestion: That a more impartial mod watch this thread.

Whether you intended it or not, that is just a personal attack. At best it is a non sequitur. The fact that I am posting ITT does not mean I am the only person moderating the thread. Your post really comes across as trying to run me out of this thread for being on the "wrong side" of an issue. It's a great example of why this thread has been (generally speaking) so terrible.

 Manchu wrote:

rigeld2 wrote:
That the list is cooked to exclude certain items.

I think that is almost certainly the case. It seems to me that the only reason to maintain such a list on a store website is to reinforce sales of popular items. I don't take it for an absolute list of FRP's monthly (or weekly? daily?) sales. Nor do I think that invalidates the list as an indication that FRP has been selling a respectable amount of RRT starters.

If the list is cooked it could mean that they sold a single box and want to sell more, or that they've sold all but one, or that they've sold none.
In other words, it means nothing except that they want it shown as a best seller. How can it be taken as a valid indicator of anything?

rigeld2 wrote:
I use them interchangeably really - or try to.

Why use them interchangably if there is a difference between them? To get down to it, we both agree that this "data point" does not prove either that RRT is a flop or that it is a success. Whether something can be considered evidence, however, is not contingent on whether it alone is sufficient to prove or disprove a proposition.

Whether something is factual or not, however, can determine if it's evidence (data) or not. Making things up isn't evidence.

rigeld2 wrote:
you're cutting up my posts and only responding to small sections instead of to the entire post

No offense meant with this practice. I do not respond to points that assume the points with which I take issue. It's my "one thing at a time" rule of thumb.

Again, I wasn't assuming anything - just wanted to let you know how it was reading. I don't mind in-line responses, but ignoring whole swaths of a post is off-putting.