Faeit-the next two codex are probably orks and black templar

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**Icculus**

My two armies!!

I'm excited for this, and am happy that I am waiting to buy the BT codex until I get the army collected and painted.

**yukihyou**

I had heard the next dex was IG and orks after SM (this is not my rumor so please don't credit me with this)

**OrlandotheTechnicoloured**

I'm afraid the way it works is unless you give a source...

the rumour is credited to you (it's why rumour aggregator sites have such poor ratings, they good stuff they get is outweighed by the made up nonsense)

**yukihyou**

I saw it on warseer. that much I remember

**pretre**

OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote:
I'm afraid the way it works is unless you give a source...

the rumour is credited to you (it's why rumour aggregator sites have such poor ratings, they good stuff they get is outweighed by the made up nonsense)

Yep. I've been a big proponent of Naftka giving his mongers code names...

**yukihyou**

Release order according to Harry [which I should have included earlier!]-
Sami
So: Tau (now), Eldar, SM or IG, SM or IG, Orks, Tyranids.
Harry
Thats seems to be about the size of it

**Jidmah**

pretre wrote:
OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote:
I'm afraid the way it works is unless you give a source...

the rumour is credited to you (it's why rumour aggregator sites have such poor ratings, they good stuff they get is outweighed by the made up nonsense)

Yep. I've been a big proponent of Naftka giving his mongers code names...

I remember a person collecting MtG rumors doing that (or calling them "from the guy who gave us info X back during Y"), Wizards of the Coast used those codenames to identify certain individuals and sue them. I don't remember what became of the lawsuit, but calling all of them "anonymous" is certainly another layer of protection for them.

**pretre**

Jidmah wrote:
pretre wrote:
OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote:
I'm afraid the way it works is unless you give a source...

the rumour is credited to you (it's why rumour aggregator sites have such poor ratings, they good stuff they get is outweighed by the made up nonsense)

Yep. I've been a big proponent of Naftka giving his mongers code names...

I remember a person collecting MtG rumors doing that (or calling them "from the guy who gave us info X back during Y"), Wizards of the Coast used those codenames to identify certain individuals and sue them. I don't remember what became of the lawsuit, but calling all of them "anonymous" is certainly another layer of protection for them.

That is his cross to bear then. Accepting everyone without filter is just a bad move.

**Quark**

I'm curious as to what the success rate of his "very reliable" statement is. A high number of his anon rumors are listed as such, and comparing the two success rates (w/ and w/o comment) would be interesting, though probably too time consuming to backfill it.

**pretre**

Quark wrote:
I'm curious as to what the success rate of his "very reliable" statement is. A high number of his anon rumors are listed as such, and comparing the two success rates (w/ and w/o comment) would be interesting, though probably too time consuming to backfill it.

We have all of his stuff listed in the Rumor tracker. I have not tracked them separately, but generally include his 'via' line in the cut and paste. He isn't even consistent in how he represents the source type though, so...

Either way, feel free to backfill. My opinion is that 'good' sources and plain ol' sources really don't change his percentage much.

**Kroothawk**

Quark wrote:
I'm curious as to what the success rate of his "very reliable" statement is.

If Natfka's "success rate" of rumours passes 50% (the rate of completely random made up rumours), then I might consider listening to his characterization of a "reliable" rumour. Until then, my idea of reliable seems not the same as his.

**pretre**

Kroothawk wrote:
Quark wrote:
I'm curious as to what the success rate of his "very reliable" statement is.

If Natfka's "success rate" of rumours passes 50% (the rate of completely random made up rumours), then I might consider listening to his characterization of a "reliable" rumour. Until then, my idea of reliable seems not the same as his.

Seems appropriate:
Natfka on Faeit 212 - Total rumors: (180 TRUE) / (238 FALSE) / (34 PARTIALLY TRUE/VAGUE)

So ~40% True. Yuck.

Automatically Appended Next Post:
Oh yeah, this is pretty good.

Yesterday he posts:

an Anonymous Source on Faeit 212 wrote:
Tau Mercs
another Tau Supplement is in the works, it lines up with a few other rumours I've heard about the Tau before it was released to the world. Vespid and Kroot HQ choices, and the ability to play a non "Tau" Lists

Then today he posts that it was verified...

Natfka wrote:Yesterday we broke a rumor in the weekly rumor round-up, that Tau had a second codex supplement in the works. This would be a Tau Mercenary supplement, that had Kroot and Vespid as the main thrust of it, and included HQ choices for the army.

Later yesterday, that was verified by another very good source here on Faeit 212. While I was told yes, it is happening, I was not given anything else on it, so I presume its not on the immediate release schedule (within the next 6 months).

Verifying your own rumor is awesome. lol

**Lansirill**

Kroothawk wrote:
Quark wrote:
I'm curious as to what the success rate of his "very reliable" statement is.

If Natfka's "success rate" of rumours passes 50% (the rate of completely random made up rumours), then I might consider listening to his characterization of a "reliable" rumour. Until then, my idea of reliable seems not the same as his.

50% isn't the rate of completely random rumors being correct. You could probably get a decent guess to the correct value if you had a large pool of rumors to work with, and calculated the percentage of them which were true (which you might be able to do from pretre's thread.) I would guess that the rate is considerably lower than 50% though, considering it's incredibly easy to just make crap up. I could say that the next codex will be a cross 40k/Fantasy "Crusading Knights" book containing updates for both Black Templars and Bretonians, and 30 other equally nonsensical rumors. That wouldn't make half of them come true.

**Kroothawk**

On the other hand, a veteran could make up rumours with more than 50% accuracy without any real sources, like:
- Codex will have 4 new plastic kits: A flyer, a monstrous creature, a combo old/new elite box plus a plastic blister hero.
- New supplement for Codex X in the works
- Army book will get new monster, bigger than before (rules crap), another metal unit transformed to plastic shoehorned with another unit to a unfitting combo kit, no redone plastic standard, but a plastic blister hero.
- What Hastings said is true
- Hobbit 2 box this December, Hobbit 3 box December 2014.
- Plastic Thunderhawk delayed
etc.

**pretre**

Kroothawk wrote:
On the other hand, a veteran could make up rumours with more than 50% accuracy without any real sources, like:
- Codex will have 4 new plastic kits: A flyer, a monstrous creature, a combo old/new elite box plus a plastic blister hero.
- New supplement for Codex X in the works
- What Hastings said is true
- Hobbit 2 box this December, Hobbit 3 box December 2014.
- Plastic Thunderhawk delayed
etc.

Stickmonkey?

**pizzaguardian**

Kroothawk wrote:
On the other hand, a veteran could make up rumours with more than 50% accuracy without any real sources, like:
- Codex will have 4 new plastic kits: A flyer, a monstrous creature, a combo old/new elite box plus a plastic blister hero.
- New supplement for Codex X in the works
- Army book will get new monster, bigger than before (rules crap), another metal unit transformed to plastic shoehorned with another unit to a unfitting combo kit, no redone plastic standard, but a plastic blister hero.
- What Hastings said is true
- Hobbit 2 box this December, Hobbit 3 box December 2014.
- Plastic Thunderhawk delayed
etc.

Woah woah woah wait a second, i have excellent information that the plastic thunderhawk is not delayed and willl be released on time, the date just coincides with 2017 or sth.

**pretre**

Lansirill wrote:
50% isn't the rate of completely random rumors being correct. You could probably get a decent guess to the correct value if you had a large pool of rumors to work with, and calculated the percentage of them which were true (which you might be able to do from pretre's thread.) I would guess that the rate is considerably lower than 50% though, considering it's incredibly easy to just make crap up.

Funny you ask. I just ran all the numbers into excel real quick:

Average 'Truthiness' of all rumors: 47.59%
Average 'Truthiness' of all mongers (discounting those with only pending rumors): 51.10%

So he's even lower than the 'random' rumors that people spew out.

Truthiness = (True) / (True + False + PT)

Automatically Appended Next Post:

Stickmonkey on Faeit 212 wrote:
I have a little more on the Tau mercs supplement.

First, I was told this wasnt planned be out til Q1.

Second, I was told that either this or one of the eldar supplements would be the first with a model wave to go along with it. I wasnt told which models or which eldar supplement.

warning: what follows is my speculation
My best guesses are a plastic pack kroot hq, which I saw in design before. This would be a slightly bigger kroot than the current troops. Had a tau rifle, not a kroot gun. A bit more armor than a standard kroot. Standing on a rock in a "crossing the Delaware" pose. Caveat that this was still in CAD, lots can change, and it was last fall.

Also a vespid plastic kit thats been ready for a while.

My eldar guess would be the first round of the plastic aspects with beil-tan.

When the tau dex was released I went back to my sources about the allied races not getting support after seeing so much studio work on them, and this was eventually what I was told.

**Ozomoto**

I play tau orks chaos and templars, suffice to say with all the new codexses, supplements and models that have came out and wil lcome out only in the last little bit I will be broke. Go 4 years not buying anyhting now this lol. I guess its a good thing.

**Jidmah**

pretre wrote:
Jidmah wrote:
pretre wrote:
OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote:
I'm afraid the way it works is unless you give a source...

the rumour is credited to you (it's why rumour aggregator sites have such poor ratings, they good stuff they get is outweighed by the made up nonsense)

Yep. I've been a big proponent of Naftka giving his mongers code names...

I remember a person collecting MtG rumors doing that (or calling them "from the guy who gave us info X back during Y"), Wizards of the Coast used those codenames to identify certain individuals and sue them. I don't remember what became of the lawsuit, but calling all of them "anonymous" is certainly another layer of protection for them.

That is his cross to bear then. Accepting everyone without filter is just a bad move.

Well, as far as I can tell, he seems more intent on getting some spotlight or internet fame rather than to make sure that his info is top quality. When you think about it, most news papers and news shows on television do the same.

**zellway**

Ork and Templar would be great. Orks codex works better in 6th then the vard dated Templar. Both could use a new one but I think that go's for all the armys that have not seen a new codex. Still have my fingers corssed for Sisters of battle.

**Lansirill**

pretre wrote:

Funny you ask. I just ran all the numbers into excel real quick:

Average 'Truthiness' of all rumors: 47.59%
Average 'Truthiness' of all mongers (discounting those with only pending rumors): 51.10%

So he's even lower than the 'random' rumors that people spew out.

Truthiness = (True) / (True + False + PT)

Wow, I honestly didn't expect it to be so high. Thanks for doing that.

**pretre**

Lansirill wrote:
pretre wrote:

Funny you ask. I just ran all the numbers into excel real quick:

Average 'Truthiness' of all rumors: 47.59%
Average 'Truthiness' of all mongers (discounting those with only pending rumors): 51.10%

So he's even lower than the 'random' rumors that people spew out.

Truthiness = (True) / (True + False + PT)

Wow, I honestly didn't expect it to be so high. Thanks for doing that.

No prob. Once we have the data, it's easy to crunch it.

**pretre**

Natfka wrote: Rumors (italics are known or already released information)
2013
Farsight Enclave: Digital: Already Released, Print: October
The Black Legion- Digital: August, Print: October or later
White Scars: September
Ravenguard: This year

2014
Ultramarines: Q1 2014
Beil-Tan: Q1 2014
Tau Mercanaries: Q1 2014
Saim-Hann: Q2? or later
Catachan: Unkown

Those are the rumored codex supplements as we speak. As I get more information of course I will get to you.

The following are a series of my own personal speculations. Please note that there are no rumors yet pointing these directions. Journalistic speculation follows:

Speculation
I expect that supplements for the following supplements to fit within the above timelines.
Orks, possibly speed freaks
Tyranids: Hive Fleet Behemoth (the hive fleet that fought the Battle of Macragge)
Chaos Marines: I expect another supplement. Not sure of its direction. (Night Lords Please)

**Ironwill13791**

No Fallen Angel: A codex Dark Angels supplement. Rules for cypher and the ability to ally with the chaos factions plus crusade/heresy era weapons and wargear. It would be a really interesting addition to the game. But it probably won't happen and DA will sit there forgotten.

**timetowaste85**

So Faete says black Templars and Orks, Natfka says ultra marines and other supplements? Pretre, any guesses which is more likely to be on the ball?

**pizzaguardian**

one would assume c:sm and c:ig would arrive before the supplements, so c:sm september release then?

**Nevelon**

Ironwill13791 wrote:
No Fallen Angel: A codex Dark Angels supplement. Rules for cypher and the ability to ally with the chaos factions plus crusade/heresy era weapons and wargear. It would be a really interesting addition to the game. But it probably won't happen and DA will sit there forgotten.

As both Chaos and Dark Angels have 6th codexes, I'd love to see a Fallen supplement that has stuff for both of them in it.

**Zweischneid**

timetowaste85 wrote:
So Faete says black Templars and Orks, Natfka says ultra marines and other supplements? Pretre, any guesses which is more likely to be on the ball?

So it's Faeit vs. Nafka now..... ???? got to love the rumourmonger business

**Ironwill13791**

Nevelon wrote:
Ironwill13791 wrote:
No Fallen Angel: A codex Dark Angels supplement. Rules for cypher and the ability to ally with the chaos factions plus crusade/heresy era weapons and wargear. It would be a really interesting addition to the game. But it probably won't happen and DA will sit there forgotten.

As both Chaos and Dark Angels have 6th codexes, I'd love to see a Fallen supplement that has stuff for both of them in it.

An exalt for you.

I have Dark Angels and Chaos Daemons as my primary armies (DA are #1), and an allied contingent of Chaos Marines. So the fallen supplement would be a unique addition and rock me to the core (tie in 3 of my armies in 1, thank you).

**timetowaste85**

Zweischneid wrote:
timetowaste85 wrote:
So Faete says black Templars and Orks, Natfka says ultra marines and other supplements? Pretre, any guesses which is more likely to be on the ball?

So it's Faeit vs. Nafka now..... ???? got to love the rumourmonger business

Shall we castrate whichever of them proves wrong?