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 Anpu42 wrote:
Could we get away from all of the mathhammer and get back the Centurions

The mathammer is important to the discussion. In fact, one could say that 40K IS mathammer at is core.

So chance of getting gate if rolling all 3 rolls on telekensis is 75% (if you get it first roll you can always roll on something else bit this does not change the probability from the outset)
Chance of getting gate if only prepared to roll 2 rolls (with reroll) is 55.6% rounded to 1dp.
Chance of getting gate but still getting two rolls on div if prepared to roll 2 on telekenisis (but not having to) is 30.6% rounded to 1dp.
That is exact (well rounded :-p).

@Tiger: Yeah but Khan suuuuuuuuuuuuuuucks
@Poly: Your way is definitely shorter, though saying you have to calculate the inverse isn't entirely right. I'll have to keep this in mind the next time I calculate exploding dice.

Inverse in this case is the way to find exact probabilities.

Martel732 wrote:

 Anpu42 wrote:
Could we get away from all of the mathhammer and get back the Centurions

The mathammer is important to the discussion. In fact, one could say that 40K IS mathammer at is core.

Warhammer 40,000 is about getting out there and blowing the Holly out of each other with little plastic men. Some people kile the Mathhammer, some like the Modleing. I am fine with that, but please after the 2nd or third Mathmatics Lesson could just move on. I was here to find out what was working and was not what the abbicus is telling us.

[Sorry I am Snippy today after reading a whole page of math homwork]

So is the way I calculated it wrong then? Cause so far my math seems to match yours exactly despite us going two different ways about it.

Not necessarily. Just that doing it using the inverse and in fractional form leaves less room for earlier rounding affecting the result later on down the line. Did you get the same results % wise as my previous post? If so your maths is fine. Sorry I rushed back onto it after work and didn't read your posts, only glanced at them.


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Its the way we teach it anyway :-p!

I work almost exclusively with fractions when handling probabilities. What rounding?

Haha touche! Just saw all the decimals earlier on.


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So assuming you are gateing the cent devs onto a midfield skyshield landing pad for the juicy 4++ so don't want forewarning, whats the chance of getting the optimum set up with tiggy? Namely: gate, prescience and perfect timing?
Well we have already worked out that the chance of getting gate in one roll (with reroll) is 11/36. We also know that getting a power with 2 rolls (and reroll is 5/9). Being able to substitute whatever div power for pres means all we have to do is multiply 11/36 and 5/9 together to get our probability. So that is 55/324 chance... or 17.0% chance rounded to 1dp.
If going for gate and you do not mind either forewarning or perfect timing it becomes:
11/36 x (1-(2/3)^4) = 24.5% to 1dp.


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If ignoring gate completely and wanting perfect timing, forewarning and prescience:
5/9 of getting either pt or fw on 1st roll or reroll.
If gotten on roll 1 9/25 chance of getting other on roll two. (1-(4/5 x 4/5))
If not on roll 2 chance of getting on roll 3 is chance of not getting on roll 2 and chance of getting on roll 3 is 144/625.
So chance of getting other on roll 2 OR 3 is 9/25 + 144/625 = 225/625 + 144/625 = 369/625.
But there is also the chance of not getting either on the 1st roll (4/9) but getting both with the next 2 rolls:
Roll 2. 1- (4/5 x 4/5) = 9/25
Roll 3. 1 - (3/4 x 3/4) = 7/16
Chance of all 3 happening is 4/9 x 9/25 x 7/16 = 252/3600.

Option 1 OR option 2 gives all 3 powers. So 369/625 + 252/3600


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59% + 7% = 66% chance of getting prescience, perfect timing and forewarning.


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Ahhhhhh Im beat!


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Looks like its better just to forget about gate!

Yeah, I'd rather take an allied DA Libby for that reason. It gets me Prescience and a 4++. Perfect Timing is more like icing on the cake.

If you want an alternative to gate just use the Bunkerpult.

Imperial bunker with escape hatch is 80pts. It can be used to launch 6 Cents and tiggy 18" across the table putting most things in range of their cannons.

 Ravenous D wrote:
If you want an alternative to gate just use the Bunkerpult.

Imperial bunker with escape hatch is 80pts. It can be used to launch 6 Cents and tiggy 18" across the table putting most things in range of their cannons.

This necessitates playing with stronghold assault, leading to said Cents being vulnerable to Macro-cannon and the like.

My current Tier-1 list revolves around Dev Centurions protected by O'Vesa and Tau Commanders with Loth providing gate, Inquisitors providing Prescience, and Farsight providing no-scatter.
It's tabled Screamerstar, Seer Council/Baron and Beastpack/ Baron.

While extremely killy Dev cents are too expensive and too squishy to not have some sort of bubble-wrap and need to be effective from turn one. I also find running hurricane bolters on them is better, because grav-cannon will kill things the missile launcher is meant to shoot at.

I do think they are better than equivalent in Devastator Squads though, OP.

Would land raiders help this unit?

No. Cents are Very Bulky so you could fit at most 5 in an LRC. And they would have to spend a turn getting in to redeploy.

I have used a unit of IF Mis/Las cents and they worked pretty well, it was the rest of my list that sucked.

With the release of inquisition I wanted to try giving a level 1 div inquisitor the scout book and outflank him with a unit of grav centurions. I might drop the div part and just keep him cheap since I dont see needing it very much. Throw in one missile launcher to increase the kill range. and go from there.

I really want to run both units, however it is just so expensive points wise.

 S.K.Ren wrote:
No. Cents are Very Bulky so you could fit at most 5 in an LRC. And they would have to spend a turn getting in to redeploy.

I wouldn't say 5, but i was thinking 3 in a regular Land raider.

but say with khan WS, you can get a position 24" on the board around turn one (12" scout, 6" tank move and 6" disembark) so they can get a great position early on. even without khan and WS weirdness, it seems they can get a better position 12" on the board. it adds the distraction of a LR, and the hitting power of Centurions!

 Asmodai Asmodean wrote:

This necessitates playing with stronghold assault, leading to said Cents being vulnerable to Macro-cannon and the like.

My current Tier-1 list revolves around Dev Centurions protected by O'Vesa and Tau Commanders with Loth providing gate, Inquisitors providing Prescience, and Farsight providing no-scatter.
It's tabled Screamerstar, Seer Council/Baron and Beastpack/ Baron.

While extremely killy Dev cents are too expensive and too squishy to not have some sort of bubble-wrap and need to be effective from turn one. I also find running hurricane bolters on them is better, because grav-cannon will kill things the missile launcher is meant to shoot at.

I do think they are better than equivalent in Devastator Squads though, OP.

Let me see if I got this right - Primary SM, Allied Enclave, Farsight/O'Vesa, 6 Cents w/ Loth HQ, ML1 Inquisitor, all in one unit? That is terrifying.

Yeah and you are in position to be shot at by everything else because the middle of the field is NOT where you want to be. You should be sweeping the sides and eliminating the enemy's units one by one. You're already a fire magnet for all of your opponents fire support. You don't want to be in range of all their rank and file as well if you can help it.

Deep Striking around the field allows you to actually maneuver away from things that you couldn't otherwise avoid. Being within 36" of your target isn't hard especially with SnP.

 obsidiankatana wrote:

 Asmodai Asmodean wrote:

This necessitates playing with stronghold assault, leading to said Cents being vulnerable to Macro-cannon and the like.

My current Tier-1 list revolves around Dev Centurions protected by O'Vesa and Tau Commanders with Loth providing gate, Inquisitors providing Prescience, and Farsight providing no-scatter.
It's tabled Screamerstar, Seer Council/Baron and Beastpack/ Baron.

While extremely killy Dev cents are too expensive and too squishy to not have some sort of bubble-wrap and need to be effective from turn one. I also find running hurricane bolters on them is better, because grav-cannon will kill things the missile launcher is meant to shoot at.

I do think they are better than equivalent in Devastator Squads though, OP.

Let me see if I got this right - Primary SM, Allied Enclave, Farsight/O'Vesa, 6 Cents w/ Loth HQ, ML1 Inquisitor, all in one unit? That is terrifying.

Enclave is primary to get O'vesa. Farsight, O'Vesa, Torchstar (the magic of ignores cover), 4 Grav cents (1 to split fire, 6 cents is overkill). Coteaz for IBEYou and Xenos inquisitor for funky grenades. Sometimes I run them with support Skyrays, sometimes just a giant sledgehammer of a unit. They also put out a hell of a lot of strength 5 and Force Weapon prescienced attacks. Basically it murders you turn one and then sweeps across the board split-firing and multi-assaulting. It's like Farsight bomb on crack.