Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you:
No adverts like this in the forums anymore.
Times and dates in your local timezone.
Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance.
Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely.
Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net.
If you are already a member then feel free to login now.
I am not the greatest fan of his writing but the points he is making are very relevant imho. He is buy and large accurate though I do take issue with some of his P+L comments. I understood the thematic points he was making with Cyprus etc but myself I would have used something else.
However, I really think this thread has a fundamental flaw to it. Very few people truly understand how an exchange works and just as few people truly understand how a shareprice is formed. I think this has been DA's issue in this thread and I am afraid I have to agree with him. I see little value to this thread to be honest.
My good sir, this thread is all about the sky falling; its intrinsic value is that it is a collection point for fiscal pontification by those, like myself, who have no clue what we're talking about but want to throw things back and forth.
Six mistakes mankind keeps making century after century: Believing that personal gain is made by crushing others; Worrying about things that cannot be changed or corrected; Insisting that a thing is impossible because we cannot accomplish it; Refusing to set aside trivial preferences; Neglecting development and refinement of the mind; Attempting to compel others to believe and live as we do
While 'fan' may be pushing it a bit, I think, and have continued to do so, that he has valid arguments which provide an alternate view on the situation, my issue is, and continues to be, with the way he chooses to express those views and apparent inability to consider the possibility that those that think differently may also have a point, and apparent reluctance to accept any sort of information that doesn't jive with what he thinks.
"The sign of an educated mind is the ability to consider an idea without accepting it" as they say.
Also
"You catch more flies with honey than with piss. "
I am not the greatest fan of his writing but the points he is making are very relevant imho. He is buy and large accurate though I do take issue with some of his P+L comments. I understood the thematic points he was making with Cyprus etc but myself I would have used something else.
However, I really think this thread has a fundamental flaw to it. Very few people truly understand how an exchange works and just as few people truly understand how a shareprice is formed. I think this has been DA's issue in this thread and I am afraid I have to agree with him. I see little value to this thread to be honest.
This thread has moved on from the original topic by some distance. While it is now the "share price thread" it started as the "GW have failed to increase or maintain their income for the first time in some time and their share price has tanked thread"
It really doesn't take a financial genius to connect the dots of no dividend - people dump stock - share price tanks, but the reasons for the "no dividend" are where mine and Derek's reasoning part ways.
GW have failed almost equally in all of their global territories, yet Derek continues to cite only evidence with regard to very heavily US biased sources, disregards evidence of UK growth or any of the other major European economies by citing Greece (where nobody had paid income tax since the war or something equally ridiculous) or Cyprus (a tiny island with a small population, half of which is Greek anyway) as some sort of rebuttal, and dismisses Government figures as "Governments lie" (maybe, but the opposition don't if they can score points.) Even if this is a false recovery, it is still a recovery until it isn't.
Then you factor in areas like the Antipodes, who have a very different economic profile, and yet still have seen a similar level of fall off in business, and the common denominator remains GW and how they're conducting themselves.
Then you can factor in the oft quoted, and entirely anecdotal, evidence that everyone else in the wargaming industry is doing quite alright thank you very much for asking, and attributing all of GW's apparent financial glitch down to "well, it's the markets, innit?" just looks like an argument that only takes account of part of the picture.
Wrap all that up in a series of posts that have at best been slightly condescending and at worst downright patronising, and you unfortunately have the situation we have here. I've tried, and have seen others try, to suggest that a slight adjustment in how the arguments are presented might foster more discussion and less bickering, but evidently that doesn't seem to be on DA's to do list just now.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2014/02/27 02:51:00
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
Heck - wargaming is, by all accounts, doing very well in Poland* - but I do not see that being bandied about by the folks that disagree with the relevancy of Cyprus.
The Auld Grump
* Evidenced entirely by some awesome figures coming out of that nation.
Kilkrazy wrote:When I was a young boy all my wargames were narratively based because I played with my toy soldiers and vehicles without the use of any rules.
The reason I bought rules and became a real wargamer was because I wanted a properly thought out structure to govern the action instead of just making things up as I went along.
I don't trust people who want anyone to bow to some unseen credentials and then continue to state that Cyprus is more relevant to European economy and GW sales than Germany.
Can we now get back to topic instead of feeding a troll?
fullheadofhair wrote: 4) If GW was going under and we could tell then so could its institutional investors. Its share price would be through the floor.
Only if the investors know anything about the reality and the market, and from what I recall no investors have really done much research into GW as it's such small fish for the trust funds that make up the majority of the stock holdings. From an investors point of view sales are down but there's no reason they won't come back up, from a gamers view the sales are down because they are losing customers to pricing/competition.
I'm sure there are plenty of companies that fold even though stock holder confidence and the stock price is high.
Having a read of the first few pages of that stockholder discussion, it seems they are regarding the dividend yield as pretty high and many are holding onto the stock in the hope that the dividends restart soon at the same sort of good rate. From that, I wonder what'd happen to the stock price if they suspend the divident for a 2nd consecutive quarter (it's done quarterly, isn't it?)
Edit: Share price is now 495, lowest it's been since Feb 2012. I wonder if dropping below the magic 500 line will scare the more emotional investors.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2014/02/27 09:44:47
fullheadofhair wrote: 4) If GW was going under and we could tell then so could its institutional investors. Its share price would be through the floor.
Only if the investors know anything about the reality and the market, and from what I recall no investors have really done much research into GW as it's such small fish for the trust funds that make up the majority of the stock holdings. From an investors point of view sales are down but there's no reason they won't come back up, from a gamers view the sales are down because they are losing customers to pricing/competition.
I'm sure there are plenty of companies that fold even though stock holder confidence and the stock price is high.
Having a read of the first few pages of that stockholder discussion, it seems they are regarding the dividend yield as pretty high and many are holding onto the stock in the hope that the dividends restart soon at the same sort of good rate. From that, I wonder what'd happen to the stock price if they suspend the divident for a 2nd consecutive quarter (it's done quarterly, isn't it?)
Edit: Share price is now 495, lowest it's been since Feb 2012. I wonder if dropping below the magic 500 line will scare the more emotional investors.
They know more than you seem to think. I have met with some GW Investors at their request during the Finecast issues. They expressed concern.
Kroothawk wrote: I don't trust people who want anyone to bow to some unseen credentials and then continue to state that Cyprus is more relevant to European economy and GW sales than Germany.
Can we now get back to topic instead of feeding a troll?
Oh the irony of this post!
This thread is like a microcosm of Dakka.
A chap who seems to have some specific knowledge of a topic is derided for not towing the line of other louder more frequent posters who will continue to repeat their own assumption ad nauseam until we accept or get bored and find something else to read. Derek's posts (while not entirely spot on in geographical economics) have remained to the point, dismissing him as troll only does you a disservice.
By way of trying to put an end to the tangent of southern European economies, GW is mostly owned by UK pension and investment funds. The UK being a non Eurozone nation isn't nearly as exposed to these risks/failings and continental Europeans would be. We can therefore dismiss them as having any truly meaningful impact on GWs stock price.
How do you promote your Hobby? - Legoburner "I run some crappy wargaming website "
Kroothawk wrote: I don't trust people who want anyone to bow to some unseen credentials and then continue to state that Cyprus is more relevant to European economy and GW sales than Germany.
Can we now get back to topic instead of feeding a troll?
Oh the irony of this post!
This thread is like a microcosm of Dakka.
A chap who seems to have some specific knowledge of a topic is derided for not towing the line of other louder more frequent posters who will continue to repeat their own assumption ad nauseam until we accept or get bored and find something else to read. Derek's posts (while not entirely spot on in geographical economics) have remained to the point, dismissing him as troll only does you a disservice.
By way of trying to put an end to the tangent of southern European economies, GW is mostly owned by UK pension and investment funds. The UK being a non Eurozone nation isn't nearly as exposed to these risks/failings and continental Europeans would be. We can therefore dismiss them as having any truly meaningful impact on GWs stock price.
Speaking of irony...
You are praising DA's apparent "specific knowledge" of the topic (which is just claimed, none of his "analysis" has been anything more than superficial US-centric macro-economics babble combined with some serious lack of knowledge of European economic realities and with a slight pinch of conspiracy theory just for flavour), while in the same post refuting one of his supposed reasons for the stock crash drop.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/02/27 11:59:45
Kroothawk wrote: I don't trust people who want anyone to bow to some unseen credentials and then continue to state that Cyprus is more relevant to European economy and GW sales than Germany.
Can we now get back to topic instead of feeding a troll?
Oh the irony of this post!
This thread is like a microcosm of Dakka.
A chap who seems to have some specific knowledge of a topic is derided for not towing the line of other louder more frequent posters who will continue to repeat their own assumption ad nauseam until we accept or get bored and find something else to read. Derek's posts (while not entirely spot on in geographical economics) have remained to the point, dismissing him as troll only does you a disservice.
By way of trying to put an end to the tangent of southern European economies, GW is mostly owned by UK pension and investment funds. The UK being a non Eurozone nation isn't nearly as exposed to these risks/failings and continental Europeans would be. We can therefore dismiss them as having any truly meaningful impact on GWs stock price.
Speaking of irony...
You are praising DA's apparent "specific knowledge" of the topic (which is just claimed, none of his "analysis" has been anything more than superficial US-centric macro-economics babble combined with some serious lack of knowledge of European economic realities and with a slight pinch of conspiracy theory just for flavour), while in the same post refuting one of his supposed reasons for the stock crash drop.
Speaking of problems from Southern Europe....
You don't seem to understand irony nor the point I was making. And that was that some different discourse rather than the same old lame old "change what ever the topic is to GW sucks" is to be encouraged.
How do you promote your Hobby? - Legoburner "I run some crappy wargaming website "
Today 10:31
hi, you aiming to top up at 450p then? must say this share needs some good news to get it going anywhere!
Its hard to be awesome, when your playing with little plastic men. Welcome to Fantasy 40k
If you think your important, in the great scheme of things. Do the water test.
Put your hands in a bucket of warm water,
then pull them out fast. The size of the hole shows how important you are.
I think we should roll some dice, to see if we should roll some dice, To decide if all this dice rolling is good for the game.
The essay about the TSR takeover was interesting, but also saddened me to some extent - the author writes that they at WOTC listen to the customers, but a couple of years after the takeover, they committed the atrocity that was DnD 4Ed. Shame.
Kroothawk wrote: I don't trust people who want anyone to bow to some unseen credentials and then continue to state that Cyprus is more relevant to European economy and GW sales than Germany.
That is a misrepresentation.
My point was that the European economy is not stable. Cyrpus, Greece, Spain and Italy are symptoms. The ECB didn't do the LTRO or LTRO 2 and now discussing doing full on unsterilized 'asset' purchases because everything is rosy. The same could be said in the USA where the Fed is buying MBS and treasuries and Japan has it's own unlimited QE. Even with these programs, we have seen bank failures across Europe and here in the USA. The example of Cyprus was where two banks blew up because they owned sovereign debt of a neighboring nation and when yields spiked, it caused a bank failure. That failure was so meaningful that it practically paralyzed the country and then impacted the yields of Italy and Spain. That is what caused the ECB to go full slow with their monetary policy.
You are just mad because I showed that you didn't know what you were talking about with the automatic trades thing.
By way of trying to put an end to the tangent of southern European economies, GW is mostly owned by UK pension and investment funds. The UK being a non Eurozone nation isn't nearly as exposed to these risks/failings and continental Europeans would be. We can therefore dismiss them as having any truly meaningful impact on GWs stock price.
Well.. the question you have to ask yourself is what else do those pensions own? Do they own debt? Other publicly traded securities? Do they own sovereign debt from their neighbors? Typically it's a mix.
And realistically.. you don't have to even own sovereign debt to be impacted by it. During the last flare up of yields in Europe, we saw both equities and debt take a hit at the same time. A bunch of these financial institutions were so leveraged that while their positions were moving against them, they had to raise cash everywhere they could. So you saw stocks sell off at the same time as debt.
Alkasyn wrote: The essay about the TSR takeover was interesting, but also saddened me to some extent - the author writes that they at WOTC listen to the customers, but a couple of years after the takeover, they committed the atrocity that was DnD 4Ed. Shame.
TSR was purchased by WotC in 1996, 18 years ago, not exactly a couple years ago. WotC also over saw the publishing of D&D 3rd, 3.5 and 4th. By most indications, D&D 3rd and 3.5 were well received. 4th may have some issues people don't like. Based on the wikipedia article, it appears 4th was created based on player input, however it seems they went too far past center for the majority of the populace. Let's wait to 5th edition before WotC doesn't listen customers.
PhantomViper wrote: You are praising DA's apparent "specific knowledge" of the topic (which is just claimed, none of his "analysis" has been anything more than superficial US-centric macro-economics babble combined with some serious lack of knowledge of European economic realities and with a slight pinch of conspiracy theory just for flavour), while in the same post refuting one of his supposed reasons for the stock crash drop.
It's a few days old (references the share price at 514p) but worth a brief read.
Pertinent portion of that article:
"Finally there's Games Workshop (LSE: GAW.L - news) (LSE: GRP (SES: G18.SI - news) ), a £160m developer of role-playing games and one of the most idiosyncratic businesses on the market today.
Indeed, the chairman has replaced the progressive dividend policy with a 'pay-what-we-can' approach and likes to keep shareholder updates to a minimum.
Certainly the market was stunned last month when it saw interim profits down 30% - there was no earlier warning and the shares submerged 25%.
This business is apparently the predominant player in the war-gaming sector, although the track record does not suggest a genuine 'franchise'. Profits of £21m in 2013 compare with £20m achieved back in 2004, with the years in between witnessing various problems followed by a strong recovery.
Still, that strong recovery, £10m net cash and executive bonuses limited to just £1,000 suggests all is not lost here. I should add the boss currently boasts a £10m stake and spent £1m two years ago buying shares at 535p (the price is now 514p)."
Let me give you guys an example of how to read a chart..
Spoiler:
On this monthly chart you can see the RSI failed to make a new high and confirm the new high in price. That indicates you are losing strength and are setup for a decline. That is what we call a negative divergence.
A few years back, you could see that the price made a new low for the move but RSI did not confirm the new low. That indicated it was gaining strength. That is what we call a positive divergence.
The lines I drew in here are indications of support zones. I am not predicting it will stop there but I think testing those levels (460) is a given. 350s are even possible and the chart would still be technically in an uptrend.
Now.. you can also look at the weekly chart below.
Spoiler:
You can see even more pronounced negative divergences leading up to this decline. New highs in price and RSI was not confirming.
At this point, we have a Sub 30 RSI on a weekly basis and the MACD is buried. So i'd expect some sort of bounce at some point based on that. It likely will not be a "low" because there are no divergences at this point.
Now.. this doesn't just apply to analysis of GW.. Look at these charts..
Spoiler:
If you don't know what to look for, you'll be sitting there saying how great the chart looks. Look a new high! awesome. But if you notice the divergences, you would have been OUT of this name. Which name was this and when?
Spoiler:
and what happened next?
Spoiler:
A collapse and eventually a bottom with a positive divergence..
Now.. knowing what i've shown.. who wants to own this chart?
Spoiler:
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/02/27 20:04:25
Let me give you guys an example of how to read a chart..
On this monthly chart you can see the RSI failed to make a new high and confirm the new high in price. That indicates you are losing strength and are setup for a decline. That is what we call a negative divergence.
A few years back, you could see that the price made a new low for the move but RSI did not confirm the new low. That indicated it was gaining strength. That is what we call a positive divergence.
The lines I drew in here are indications of support zones. I am not predicting it will stop there but I think testing those levels (460) is a given. 350s are even possible and the chart would still be technically in an uptrend.
Now.. you can also look at the weekly chart below.
You can see even more pronounced negative divergences leading up to this decline. New highs in price and RSI was not confirming.
At this point, we have a Sub 30 RSI on a weekly basis and the MACD is buried. So i'd expect some sort of bounce at some point based on that. It likely will not be a "low" because there are no divergences at this point.
Little hint, if you're trying to explain something to people who you have previously spoken down to, indicating you believe them to be at best ignorant, at worst stupid, littering your explanation with a bunch of acronyms without explaining what their definition is or their implications are won't really help in what you're trying to achieve.
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
Let me give you guys an example of how to read a chart..
On this monthly chart you can see the RSI failed to make a new high and confirm the new high in price. That indicates you are losing strength and are setup for a decline. That is what we call a negative divergence.
A few years back, you could see that the price made a new low for the move but RSI did not confirm the new low. That indicated it was gaining strength. That is what we call a positive divergence.
The lines I drew in here are indications of support zones. I am not predicting it will stop there but I think testing those levels (460) is a given. 350s are even possible and the chart would still be technically in an uptrend.
Now.. you can also look at the weekly chart below.
You can see even more pronounced negative divergences leading up to this decline. New highs in price and RSI was not confirming.
At this point, we have a Sub 30 RSI on a weekly basis and the MACD is buried. So i'd expect some sort of bounce at some point based on that. It likely will not be a "low" because there are no divergences at this point.
Little hint, if you're trying to explain something to people who you have previously spoken down to, indicating you believe them to be at best ignorant, at worst stupid, littering your explanation with a bunch of acronyms without explaining what their definition is or their implications are won't really help in what you're trying to achieve.
Actually, it might - depends on what he's trying to achieve.
I have my doubts at this point, but I am monitoring this thread...
azreal13 wrote: Little hint, if you're trying to explain something to people who you have previously spoken down to, indicating you believe them to be at best ignorant, at worst stupid, littering your explanation with a bunch of acronyms without explaining what their definition is or their implications are won't really help in what you're trying to achieve.
Oh I never said anyone was stupid. There is a big difference between being ignorant about a subject and incapable of learning about it. I am ignorant about many aspects of constructing a home or building/maintaining an automobile. That doesn't make me stupid, just uninformed. I can recognize my ignorance about MANY things. This is my profession and i'm speaking from expertise.
The RSI is classified as a momentum oscillator, measuring the velocity and magnitude of directional price movements. Momentum is the rate of the rise or fall in price. The RSI computes momentum as the ratio of higher closes to lower closes: stocks which have had more or stronger positive changes have a higher RSI than stocks which have had more or stronger negative changes.
The RSI is most typically used on a 14 day timeframe, measured on a scale from 0 to 100, with high and low levels marked at 70 and 30, respectively. Shorter or longer timeframes are used for alternately shorter or longer outlooks. More extreme high and low levels—80 and 20, or 90 and 10—occur less frequently but indicate stronger momentum.
To be fair, he didn't start off this way. Some of the response in this thread have been a little obtuse - sometimes because of a lack of knowledge others out of sheer wilfulness.
This is a very specialized subject. Drivers behind share price movements are both based on subjective feelings and factual data both of which are converted into information that has differing value depending on its source.
The average person and even the average knowledgeable investor are often playing a game of pin the tail on the donkey. Unless you actually understand those charts and have a full analysis of the comapny at your fingertips when posting in this thread, all you are doing is commenting based on gut feeling and observation.
Lets be fair - the fact that many of you didn't even understand the context of "automatic" actually makes your opinion irrelevent in this thread.
That isnt meant to sound mean or dismissive - it is just a simple statement of fact, if you don't understand basic theory you cannot really offer an opinion. Just as if you dont understand basic law you cannot offer a legal opinion in the CHS thread.
2014 will be the year of zero GW purchases. Kneadite instead of GS, no paints or models. 2014 will be the year I finally make the move to military models and away from miniature games.
Actually, a presentation of how self-regarding arrogant managers with omnipotency fantasies can totally lose contact with reality is kind of on topic, as it illustrates the mind set how the GW management with all their credentials is ruining their company and not being aware of it, even when obvious to the general public.
I still hope that the people with some basic economic training wanting us to stop stating our opinion don't succeed in getting this discussion locked with their off topic posts.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/02/27 20:51:54
Alpharius wrote: Actually, it might - depends on what he's trying to achieve.
Teach people how to use a basic momentum indicator correctly?
Automatically Appended Next Post:
Kroothawk wrote: I still hope that the people with some basic economic training wanting us to stop stating our opinion don't succeed in getting this discussion locked with their off topic posts.
Automatic lock?
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/02/27 20:54:13
Alpharius wrote: Actually, it might - depends on what he's trying to achieve.
Teach people how to use a basic momentum indicator correctly?
I can't speak for Alph, but I had to make the call as to whether that post was a genuine attempt at helping other people understand more about the subject, or just an attempt to show off your greater knowledge.
Using acronyms without explanation would certainly favour the latter, but not everyone is a natural educator, and as I do think you've got genuine credentials and can offer insights, I decided to offer the benefit of the doubt.
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
azreal13 wrote: Using acronyms without explanation would certainly favour the latter, but not everyone is a natural educator, and as I do think you've got genuine credentials and can offer insights, I decided to offer the benefit of the doubt.
Nope.. i'm not an educator nor a diplomat.
I'm also not really giving a rosy picture of GW's next 9-12 months either.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/02/27 21:04:49
Kroothawk wrote: Actually, a presentation of how self-regarding arrogant managers with omnipotency fantasies can totally lose contact with reality is kind of on topic, as it illustrates the mind set how the GW management with all their credentials is ruining their company and not being aware of it, even when obvious to the general public.
I still hope that the people with some basic economic training wanting us to stop stating our opinion don't succeed in getting this discussion locked with their off topic posts.
The quality of management and its attitude to its customers and therefore its overall rating is a key component in any analysis - to not consider that would not be good practice. That is certainly on topic.
The trouble is, often your stated opinion has been wrong on a factual/ knowledge basis. That isn't wanting you to stop commenting entirely - it has been a desire to correct your misunderstanding of the topic and to increase your knowledge.
FYI, I think it should be really apparent that DA has just a little more than "basic economic training". His comments are no different to the the times you have tried to correct people from posting factually incorrect stuff.
2014 will be the year of zero GW purchases. Kneadite instead of GS, no paints or models. 2014 will be the year I finally make the move to military models and away from miniature games.
CSM Undivided
CSM Khorne 
