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2014/04/28 21:15:42
Subject: Midterms are coming... Cry 'Havoc!', and let slip the dogs of war.
whembly wrote: Seriously, anyone thinks they can take on the Clinton machine again?
Obama seemed to do alright.
“We may observe that the government in a civilized country is much more expensive than in a barbarous one; and when we say that one government is more expensive than another, it is the same as if we said that that one country is farther advanced in improvement than another. To say that the government is expensive and the people not oppressed is to say that the people are rich.”
Adam Smith, who must have been some kind of leftie or something.
2014/04/29 02:56:11
Subject: Midterms are coming... Cry 'Havoc!', and let slip the dogs of war.
d-usa wrote: Can Bundy run as champion of the people?
I understand his platform is one firmly placed in not understanding the Constitution, not paying his bills, and killing all the turtles. As an observer of American politics, the show should be interesting
EDIT - Which is a pretty cryptic answer, and I hate it when people do that to me. So to explain, I don't think Obama's campaign system or speechifying was ever as awesomely all-conquering as some people like to make out. They were strengths, to be sure, but they weren't ever so utterly awesome that no-one will ever be able to challenge them. People claimed Bush's campaign system and Karl Rove were unbeatable as well, and the same about Clinton, and Reagan. Ultimately whoever wins is credited with being a great politician who ran a great campaign, while the loser is declared an idiot who ran a terrible campaign.
What I'm trying to say is that there's no definites, that campaign wins often come down to stuff outside of the candidate's control (mostly the economy), but then when the dust settles we'll all talk like whoever won, no matter how little they won by, was destined to win.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/04/29 04:58:54
“We may observe that the government in a civilized country is much more expensive than in a barbarous one; and when we say that one government is more expensive than another, it is the same as if we said that that one country is farther advanced in improvement than another. To say that the government is expensive and the people not oppressed is to say that the people are rich.”
Adam Smith, who must have been some kind of leftie or something.
2014/04/29 05:10:04
Subject: Midterms are coming... Cry 'Havoc!', and let slip the dogs of war.
The 2008 campaign reflects that pretty well. Throughout the summer, McCain was slowly building steam, inching closer and closer to Obama in the polls, even with Palin as a running mate (did anyone even like Biden?). Then the recession hit and he ended up even lower than he was before.
Not to say McCain would have won, merely that there's a clear death blow dealt to his campaign by an economic cliff he couldn't control.
LordofHats wrote: The 2008 campaign reflects that pretty well. Throughout the summer, McCain was slowly building steam, inching closer and closer to Obama in the polls, even with Palin as a running mate (did anyone even like Biden?). Then the recession hit and he ended up even lower than he was before.
Not to say McCain would have won, merely that there's a clear death blow dealt to his campaign by an economic cliff he couldn't control.
Yeah, McCain is a classic example. The guy had built up a huge brand for himself, through a long history in the senate, on top of a simply incredible personal story. If we could ever pick a guy and say 'that's what you need to win an election' it'd be McCain. But he ran in 2008 which just happened to be a basically unwinnable year for Republicans, as well as the economy having tanked, it was also following on from the Bush administration, which had really tanked the Republican name*.
*One of my favourite anecdotes of that campaign was in a house race somewhere (I can't find the story on google now), where a Republican found he polled much better when he used the word Conservative instead of Republican, so he started putting Conservative on his signage. His democrat opponent then took the matter to court, trying to make him put 'Republican' back on his signs. That's how toxic the word Republican had become. I can't remember who won the case, or that election.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
Ouze wrote: As opposed to, say, R-Money, who had an awful lot of unforced errors.
Yep, Romney made a load of gaffs, never articulated a message beyond the same old Republican talking points, and still came much closer than McCain, just because the factors outside of the control of the candidate were so much stronger for Romney.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/04/29 08:02:53
“We may observe that the government in a civilized country is much more expensive than in a barbarous one; and when we say that one government is more expensive than another, it is the same as if we said that that one country is farther advanced in improvement than another. To say that the government is expensive and the people not oppressed is to say that the people are rich.”
Adam Smith, who must have been some kind of leftie or something.
2014/04/29 08:43:23
Subject: Re:Midterms are coming... Cry 'Havoc!', and let slip the dogs of war.
sebster wrote: But he ran in 2008 which just happened to be a basically unwinnable year for Republicans, as well as the economy having tanked, it was also following on from the Bush administration, which had really tanked the Republican name.
He also lost his base once he tried to defend Obama in a series of Townhall meetings. Classy, but dumb where victory is concerned.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2014/04/29 21:51:28
Life does not cease to be funny when people die any more than it ceases to be serious when people laugh.
2014/05/01 19:06:49
Subject: Re:Midterms are coming... Cry 'Havoc!', and let slip the dogs of war.
He also lost his base once he tried to defend Obama in a series of Townhall meetings. Classy, but dumb where victory is concerned.
Yeah, that lady put McCain in a terrible position. If he would have agreed, it may have been just as bad for him. Even tacitly not responding or glossing over it could hav ebeen bad. The things the lady said were THAT outrageous.
Also: This will be 2010 all over again. I hope the R's don;t mistake low voter turnout with a mandate again.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/05/01 19:07:22
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2014/05/08 15:59:15
Subject: Re:Midterms are coming... Cry 'Havoc!', and let slip the dogs of war.
I don't know where else to put this, but I didn't want to start a new thread for this. But if you got an hour to spare you can enjoy an hour of "Republicans say the weirdest things":
I kind of feel bad for the two normal candidates in there
2014/05/16 19:13:27
Subject: Re:Midterms are coming... Cry 'Havoc!', and let slip the dogs of war.
While appearing on Wednesday's edition of AM 870′s "Morning Answer," Col. Allen West told Ben Shapiro that he is considering a run for the White House in 2016 out of respect for those who have asked him to run.
"As I was doing the motorcycle ride across the country and wherever we stopped, fuel stop, overnight stop, people would come up and they would ask me that question," he said. "And it would be very disrespectful and dismissive of great Americans if I did not step back and take the time to consider it and pray about it and talk about it with close confidants, so that is what I'll do."
West, however, warned that while he'll consider a run, there is no guarantee he actually will throw his hat in the ring.
"Am I considering it?" he asked. "I am considering it. That does not mean I am going to jump it and do it, but in respect to those people who are so very kind and believe that I have that level of capacity and capability, that’s what I have to do for them.”
In 2010, West became the first African-American GOP congressman from Florida since 1876. Two years later, he narrowly lost to Democrat Patrick Murphy in a contest fraught with allegations of voter fraud and what some call questionable practices by local election officials.
West is not considering a rematch this year, but he remains a favorite with the Tea Party.
Predictably, the liberal hate machine spun into action upon hearing the news. Liberals at the far-left hate site Democratic Underground, for example, called West a "joke of a human being" and a "crazy nut case."
Earlier in the week, West hammered the Obama administration with a blog post suggesting the focus on kidnapped Nigerian girls is intended to distract from the scandal surrounding Benghazi, a suspicion also held by others.
“Consider all the scandals facing the Obama administration, especially Benghazi and the Select Committee, which Rep. Nancy Pelosi referred to as a ‘political stunt,’” he wrote Monday. “Really? Four Americans die, we’re told it was because of an anti-Islam video, no one has been ‘brought to justice’ and THAT is a phony scandal and a political stunt?”
West has remained outspoken on many issues since his failed 2012 run, and many conservatives say they would love to see him run, even though it would present a difficult choice if Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, also joins the race.
A post at The Right Scoop put it this way: "I must say though Allen West would present the left with their biggest problem, primarily because he is a black conservative. And that is something I would love to see play out."
He's an intriguing candidate... don't get me wrong. But, I'd like someone with more "executive" background.
Like Gov. Scott Walker or Gov Bill Richardson....
Live Ork, Be Ork. or D'Ork!
2014/05/16 19:19:28
Subject: Re:Midterms are coming... Cry 'Havoc!', and let slip the dogs of war.
President Barack Obama’s job approval slump and voters’ entrenched wariness of his health care law are dogging Democrats ahead of the 2014 midterm elections, and Republicans have captured a lead in the areas home to the year’s most competitive races, according to a new POLITICO poll.
In the congressional districts and states where the 2014 elections will actually be decided, likely voters said they would prefer to vote for a Republican over a Democrat by 7 points, 41 percent to 34 percent. A quarter of voters said they were unsure of their preference.
Among these critical voters, Obama’s job approval is a perilous 40 percent, and nearly half say they favor outright repeal of the Affordable Care Act. Sixty percent say they believe the debate over the law is not over, compared with 39 percent who echo the president’s position and say the ACA debate has effectively concluded.
Both Obama’s job approval and the partisan ballot matchup are markedly more negative for Democrats in this poll than other national surveys — a reflection of the political reality that the midterm campaign is being fought on turf that is more challenging for Democrats than the nation as a whole.
The poll reveals that voters — even in the more conservative midterm states like Georgia and Arkansas, and tossup House districts in states such as Illinois, West Virginia and California — still lean in a liberal direction on several issues Democrats have championed this year, including immigration reform, pay equity for men and women and background checks for gun purchasers.
But none of those issues comes close to approaching health care as a major concern for midterm voters. Nearly nine in 10 respondents said that the health care law would be important to determining their vote, including 49 percent who said it would be very important.[whembly: !!!]
By comparison, only 28 percent said that immigration reform was “very important” to determining their vote, and 16 percent who said the same of male-female income disparity.
Charles Pearre, a retired civil engineer in Virginia’s Prince William County, said his top priority for the midterms was “getting the government back on track where we have a Congress that can get something done.” But Pearre, a self-identified conservative, said he prefers a divided government and deeply distrusts the president.
“My opinion of the president is he’s not doing a good job at all and he’s not qualified,” said Pearre, who has not decided which party to vote for in the midterms. “The health care law, I think, should be totally revised.”
So far, the 2014 midterms have shaped up as an asymmetrical contest between Republicans campaigning broadly against the health care law and Obama as a national political brand, and Democrats emphasizing a host of locally tailored issues and a narrower message about economic fairness and gender equality. The Republican argument appears more bluntly powerful in many of the midterm races — GOP-trending states with competitive Senate races, for instance, like Louisiana and North Carolina — but it remains to be seen whether the same set of national issues will continue to dominate the six months between now and Election Day.
Among voters who had an opinion of the ACA, the electorate was almost exactly split between those who want to repeal the law entirely and those who favor either leaving it alone or keeping it in place with modifications.
Forty-eight percent of respondents endorsed repeal, versus 35 percent who wanted to modify the law without repealing it and just 16 percent who said it should be left unchanged.
The POLITICO poll, administered by SocialSphere Inc. and conducted by the research firm GfK, tested 867 likely voters in hotly contested areas. The poll was conducted online using GfK’s KnowledgePanel methodology, which is also employed by The Associated Press, from May 2 to 13. The poll has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
At the same time that the health care law is plainly a political anchor for Democrats, the poll signals that fully killing the ACA may not be a slam-dunk as a political proposition and could be a more complicated issue for a GOP presidential ticket to negotiate in 2016. While majorities of white voters (54 percent) and men (51 percent) support repealing Obamacare, repeal now falls short of majority support with most subgroups.
Among independent voters, a majority favor either keeping the law with modifications (45 percent) or leaving it intact entirely (11 percent), with 42 percent supporting repeal. Among self-described moderates, 50 percent say the law should be left in place but modified.
The law receives powerful support from minority voters, including 80 percent of African-Americans who want to leave the law alone (34 percent) or modify it (46 percent), and 55 percent of Hispanics who want it left entirely intact (22 percent) or only modified (33 percent).
Broken down by region, only in the South did total repeal of the law command the support of a majority — 51 percent. In the Northeast, Midwest and West, repeal was the preference of a plurality of voters, but a majority favored either leaving the ACA as is or making changes to the law without repealing it.
The midterm electorate, however, is expected to be whiter and more conservative than the country as a whole, and many of the year’s highest-stakes Senate races are in Southern states such as Arkansas, North Carolina and Louisiana. So even if the law has gained some legitimacy with the broader public, it remains ominous for Democrats that repeal is the plurality position of likely voters.
Iowa Democrat Cheri Hansen said the economy was the most important issue to her in 2014. While she said she was happy with Obama, she allowed that there “probably need to be some changes” to the ACA. “I think we need to get a predominant party in there to accomplish anything, apparently,” she said.
“It’s not a presidential year, so it’s not as important,” Hansen said. “But you know, the economy is important.”
Vivian Ryals, a Democratic voter in Greensboro, N.orth Carolina, said she took a fatalistic view of the health care law: “It is what it is, and I’ll kind of leave it at that.”
“I am more middle-of-the-road on that issue. I’m not in favor of it, and I don’t oppose it,” said Ryals, a teacher who explained she is more concerned about voter ID requirements that Republicans have implemented on the state level.
The larger backdrop for the elections is widespread hostility toward Washington and distrust of government. Voters give harsh reviews to both parties in Congress, and a plurality say that their personal experiences with government are more negative than positive. Nearly two-thirds of voters said they prefer a government in which different parties control the White House and Congress, rather than one party controlling all the levers of power.
Voters give a thumbs-down to congressional Republicans by a 38-point margin, with 69 percent disapproving and 31 percent approving. Democrats fare only a bit better, finding themselves 29 points underwater — with 35 percent of likely voters approving and 64 percent disapproving.
Thirty-seven percent of respondents said that their interactions with the federal government over the past year had been more negative than positive, while only 18 percent said the opposite. Forty-five percent were unsure how to assess their experiences dealing with the government.
Perhaps most damningly, few who were informed about recent scandals involving two congressman — former Florida Rep. Trey Radel, who bought cocaine from an undercover police officer, and married Louisiana Rep. Vance McAllister, who kissed a member of his staff — said they were surprised.
Only 11 percent of respondents said they were “shocked” by the cocaine scandal, and even fewer — 4 percent — expressed extreme surprise at the “Kissing Congressman.”
In both cases, a solid majority of respondents said they were “not moved much at all.”[whembly: !!!]
On social issues, the poll shows the midterm electorate is somewhat more conservative than the country at large: While the broader population has swung in the direction of favoring same-sex marriage, the issue is a tossup with midterm voters. Forty-eight percent of respondents said they support same-sex marriage, and 52 percent said they oppose it.
On another issue where the country as a whole has quickly shifted in a progressive direction, decriminalizing marijuana, a 56 percent majority of voters in midterm battlegrounds still say they oppose legalizing recreational pot use.
When it comes to abortion rights, however, midterm voters are more aligned with Democrats than with Republicans: 54 percent say they support the right to an abortion either with no restrictions (19 percent) or some restrictions (35 percent).
Forty-five percent said there should be either a near-total abortion ban with some exceptions (34 percent) or a total ban on the procedure (11 percent).
Live Ork, Be Ork. or D'Ork!
2014/05/20 17:01:07
Subject: Midterms are coming... Cry 'Havoc!', and let slip the dogs of war.
