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Guys, i dont think some of you are understanding this. the poll isnt how confident that gw wont die out, its a poll about how confident you are that it will "continue to GROW...." Not stay alive, grow. And at the rate gw is growing (which is next to nothing) I have next to none cofidence they will pull out a 180 and start growing the company.

 Ailaros wrote:
Yeah, I also went with 10. People have been predicting the self-destruction of GW for the past 15 years for the exact same reasons, and every time it doesn't work, the doomsayers just move the date of the apocalypse back a little bit and then carry on as if they were never wrong dozens of times in the past.

GW has weathered dozens of competitors that all come by promising to be better, and then they're not, and they go away. The only serious competitor that has stuck around has been warmahordes, but they've survived by copying GW's business model.

GW has huge structural advantages going for it. The 3Dprintapocalypse is something that's been looming for a long time now, but isn't something that can't be worked around, and GW isn't going to go away because a few tournament player queque about the rules.

If GW is actually going downhill, which it isn't difinitively, then it certainly has enough altitude to continue to glide for at least another decade. And that's assuming that it never does anything right to fix whatever is apparently so wrong in the first place.

I think these a bit of an air of willful ignorance. Their competition is much different this time. And no, since when is any of the competition copying GW's business model? They all actively manage their communities and games. They are doing the exact opposite of their business model. Some are even giving their rules away for free and still supporting them better. X-Wing, Infinity, Malifaux are the "smaller" guys but they certainly aren't going away. The latter two have seen a second edition release of their rules and are actively revamping their model line into absolutely astounding models. Malifaux is doing amazing things in plastic and Infinity's new metal models... WOW. Just go look at the new Kum Riders. Holy. Crap.

The 3D printer thing isn't an issue right now. You can get consumer grade 3D printers on the higher end that can print vehicles reliably, but that's still for the nerdiest of the nerdy, so to speak. The real problem is Chinese recasts and their massive upsurge. I won't link to sites, but there are plenty of openly trading recasters and that's not to speak to the private, word of mouth folks. I've see the stuff first hand, it's easily better than FW quality. Imagine a Nids Bio-titan that has brass rods cast into the legs ensuring they don't buckle under their own weight... Illegal or not (pending on where you live), it's still something that's readily happening. And when priced attractively (40~70% off MSRP), GW will have problems. Piracy is addressed by offering a better service at multiple price points, not IP restrictions and law suits. ((Aside: Buy locally and support your hobby/game store!))

It has gone downhill. The last financial report proves it. The last several have shown a literal decrease in sales volume only bolstered by the increase of revenue from price increases and major drivers such as edition changes.. Now, we have to wait and see if it was just a short dip, but let's table that discussion until the soon expected end of fiscal year report.

It may not be the doom and glood that's massively pervasive, but to say it's okay is a bold faced lie. Times are very much different from the GW of yesteryear both in their actions and the offerings of the competition.

I think you missed the part where I said:

Ailaros wrote:People have been predicting the self-destruction of GW for the past 15 years for the exact same reasons, and every time it doesn't work

The exact same reasons. Every time.

GW has competition that actually cares about it's customers unlike the great satan GW? Well, I'm sure they'll finally topple them THIS time. Giving away free rules and being soft-hearted is exactly what it takes to compete, not copying GW's high-price, high-margin, shrewd business practices (remember when warmachine was just warmachine?)

GW has people producing cheaper minis? Well, time to pack it up, guys. I guess piracy will kill GW next year just like recasting killed it 15 years ago.

And look at GW's financial records! They had a bad quarter! They've had bad quarters before, but THIS time they're TOTALLY going to go under.

Give me a break. It's all the same enlightened-sounding nonsense as it's been every other time. The definition of specious includes both plausability and a lack of factual accuracy.

GW? 2/10
The hobby itself and other companies? 10/10

Well seeing how GW surivied the early 2000's when people back then said they would go bankrupt, they will still stick around.

Then again, GW had Lord of the Rings to bail them out. I don't see The Hobbit bailing them out this time, so 40K and Fantasy will have to stay on their own legs this times.

Still with all the changes they did, I think they will "stay afloat" for some time to come.

Davor wrote:
Well seeing how GW surivied the early 2000's when people back then said they would go bankrupt, they will still stick around.

Then again, GW had Lord of the Rings to bail them out. I don't see The Hobbit bailing them out this time, so 40K and Fantasy will have to stay on their own legs this times.

Still with all the changes they did, I think they will "stay afloat" for some time to come.

I kinda doubt that the LOTR product line was ever an asset...maybe it was for a little while. The Hobbit is a flat-out liability. The new movies aren't even close to being in the same class as the LOTR movies. I highly doubt there's too many people out there who will start an expensive gaming hobby based on these mediocre films. It's a shame too, because the LOTR rules are really, really, really good.

 Ailaros wrote:
I think you missed the part where I said:

Ailaros wrote:People have been predicting the self-destruction of GW for the past 15 years for the exact same reasons, and every time it doesn't work

The exact same reasons. Every time.

GW has competition that actually cares about it's customers unlike the great satan GW? Well, I'm sure they'll finally topple them THIS time. Giving away free rules and being soft-hearted is exactly what it takes to compete, not copying GW's high-price, high-margin, shrewd business practices (remember when warmachine was just warmachine?)

GW has people producing cheaper minis? Well, time to pack it up, guys. I guess piracy will kill GW next year just like recasting killed it 15 years ago.

And look at GW's financial records! They had a bad quarter! They've had bad quarters before, but THIS time they're TOTALLY going to go under.

Give me a break. It's all the same enlightened-sounding nonsense as it's been every other time. The definition of specious includes both plausability and a lack of factual accuracy.

And it's all hand waved away? No, it's not. Your arguments are all reductive and don't face any of the points. Name me another time with this many active competitiors and products. Name me a time when GW has less cared about their customers with literally no form of community involvement. Things are quite different now. I don't remember kickstarted games from long ago. Look at all the major GTs that used to be 40k only and are now a host of multiple game variants. If that's not facts to point to then you're just trolling.

If you don't think Chinese recasts are a problem then I'd like to know what rock you're living under. And if you don't think it's a sign of major failings on GWs pricing, then you're also new to the concepts of pricing. Add-in that the Internet is far more robust with easy methods of payment and you have a much different situation than years past.

Finally, their financial records for the past several years, as I said, have shown a reduciton of sales volume. Simple put, they are selling less product. Incorrect, they have had profits rise, but only a slight, possible 7% increase in sales volume They are raising the prices to offset the lower volume of sales to maintain their relevancy. However, they've hit their price elasticity point and are moving past it, hence the tanking point of the last report. I will gladly eat my hat if GW is doing better for their next financial report, but I solidly bet it's another stinker or worse.

Go read the 12 page series of articles from masterminis.net and come back to talk. That's written by someone far more educated than us forum dwellars on business and has been in the hobby of "GW" since the inception. It has all the factual accuracy you need, but then agian, you'll still hand wave it and ignore it. Just like GW. Do you work for them?

I'll even save you the effort of a google search: http://masterminis.blogspot.com/2013/08/the-future-of-games-days-games-workshop.html

Then again, it's just award winning journalism written by an experienced executive officer (and massive nerd with his own minis based business) of a multi-billion dollar international corporation, but hey, everyone on the internet is wrong and they're just butt hurt whingers™.

 ninjafiredragon wrote:
Continue to grow? Its not growing very much right now. And i have next to no confidence for it to start growing with GWs no advertising rule.

Since their target audience is primarily 12-14 year olds I'm quite glad they don't have an advertising campaign.

I don't see the hobby itself going anywhere at all. Too many players already invested. The models themselves would probably have to spread disease before it did.

 XT-1984 wrote:

 ninjafiredragon wrote:
Continue to grow? Its not growing very much right now. And i have next to no confidence for it to start growing with GWs no advertising rule.

Since their target audience is primarily 12-14 year olds I'm quite glad they don't have an advertising campaign.

The THQ games were great advertisement. I'm "here" because of Dawn of War. Very effective advertisement.

Commissar Benny wrote:


Apologies, I should have been more specific. By hobby I mean, Warhammer 40k.

Ugh.

Voted 10 before I read this.

Anyway, Deadzone and KoW for me currently, for others x-wing is huge right now, as is warmachine and all kinds of board games.

 TheKbob wrote:
Go read the 12 page series of articles from masterminis.net and come back to talk. That's written by someone far more educated than us forum dwellars on business and has been in the hobby of "GW" since the inception. It has all the factual accuracy you need, but then agian, you'll still hand wave it and ignore it. Just like GW. Do you work for them?

I'll even save you the effort of a google search: http://masterminis.blogspot.com/2013/08/the-future-of-games-days-games-workshop.html

Then again, it's just award winning journalism written by an experienced executive officer (and massive nerd with his own minis based business) of a multi-billion dollar international corporation, but hey, everyone on the internet is wrong and they're just butt hurt whingers™.

This part here really blew my mind when my mate told me who this guy was, and it makes dismissive responses like Ailaros' seem intentionally ignorant.

 jonolikespie wrote:

 TheKbob wrote:
Go read the 12 page series of articles from masterminis.net and come back to talk. That's written by someone far more educated than us forum dwellars on business and has been in the hobby of "GW" since the inception. It has all the factual accuracy you need, but then agian, you'll still hand wave it and ignore it. Just like GW. Do you work for them?

I'll even save you the effort of a google search: http://masterminis.blogspot.com/2013/08/the-future-of-games-days-games-workshop.html

Then again, it's just award winning journalism written by an experienced executive officer (and massive nerd with his own minis based business) of a multi-billion dollar international corporation, but hey, everyone on the internet is wrong and they're just butt hurt whingers™.

This part here really blew my mind when my mate told me who this guy was, and it makes dismissive responses like Ailaros' seem intentionally ignorant.

Yea, I'm not talking out my bum... I might get facts wrong (which I will redact and apologize, misinformation is just as bad as no information!), but I try to use sources that are unbiased or well researched/respectable. That gentleman is the closest we will get to being an "expert" in minis and business and provides a well written and rational dialog on the state of GW.

I give it a 50/50 chance. It has the potenrial to grow, but it has already been killed for me. I will not be the first to say that I still love the game and most of its models, but It has gotten too price for me. Plus the killing of Mordheim and BFG left me kinda raw. Two of my favorite GW areas have now fallen and the other two, Fantasy and 40K, have become too expensive to start new armies. I have lots of armies so they have gotten my moneys worth, but my plan is to finish my new army by June and stop buying GW.

I predict GW will go under in a few years and nobody will pick up the games. The IP will be scavenged for boardgames and maybe a pre-painted miniatures game (either war- or board-), but the IP is frankly not that valuable and has no mass market appeal; it's too niche. Companies offering substitute Warhammer bits and figures will go belly up, excepting those that were prudent enough to branch out by this point. Chinese recasters will obviously be in trouble also. They might give WM a go.

The collapse of GW will create a huge void in the market that won't be completely filled. Ex-GW players won't flock to Warmachine and Infinity, at least not 100%. There will be no market leader; instead, the market will fragment even further, with dozens of garage companies springing up to take a shot at the pie. This will make finding players even harder than now and the companies will start targeting collectors instead of gamers even harder. I expect a glut of LE figures. The number of total number of wargamers will fall for a time or permanently.

The real shift will be brought about by 3D printers. With the rapid pace of technological advancement we see these days, they'll become affordable within a few years and able to crank out models of at least hard plastic quality. There will be individuals buying up and scanning expensive models and distributing the files for "miniature pirates" to print. Die-hard collectors will keep collecting, but casuals will have no qualms about pirating models. Eventually, some companies, especially those with no proprietary games, will cease production of figures and switch to offering blueprint files; unfortunately, these will be easily pirated, just as movies and games are now, and the niche nature of the hobby means most will be savvy enough to know how to "save up" on models.

I sincerely hope this will not come to pass and the hobby will continue as it does, but 3D printing is a larger threat than many imagine. Not now, but in 5-6 years? You bet. The miniatures cost simply too much nowadays, with RRP reaching as high as $25 for a 32 mm model for non-GW brands. From an outsider's perspective, it's insane, and we don't see it because we've grown accustomed to exorbitant prices. I believe this to be unsustainable in the long run. Home 3D printers will only compound this, allowing anybody to get hold of such models for cheap.

PS The number of phoney models on e-Bay will continue to rise and give collectors a headache. It's bad enough right now, and it will only get worse.

 -DE- wrote:
I expect a glut of LE figures.

Other than a few sculptors doing some incredible quality resin sculpts for painters rather than gamers and limiting them to a couple of hundred signed prints and a couple of figures for events to go alongside Infinity and maybe Warmachines actual lines GW are the only ones I know of doing LE models.

A commemorative model here or there that doesn't impact the meta of the games at all from CB or PP means nothing and obviously 54mm models with no game attached mean even less, so I have no idea where this idea of limited edition models comes in if GW go belly up...

Limited run is a synonym for limited edition, at least as far as I am concerned. There are dozens upon dozens of these released each year.

To expand upon my previous post. I see a twofold issue with wargaming in its current form.

1. It is too expensive. The prices have skyrocketed over the past few years and casting quality has dropped (casting, not sculpting).

2. Model companies make no effort to expand the player base. They do not reach out to non-wargamers. Instead, they are perfectly content to continue squeezing money from existing customers. Until they give out and get out. This approach has been wholeheartedly embraced by GW, who seem to have no faith in wargaming anymore. I don't believe this approach is sustainable and I fear wargaming might go the way of RPG's, becoming even more niche than it is.

 -DE- wrote:
Limited run is a synonym for limited edition, at least as far as I am concerned. There are dozens upon dozens of these released each year.

To expand upon my previous post. I see a twofold issue with wargaming in its current form.

1. It is too expensive. The prices have skyrocketed over the past few years and casting quality has dropped (casting, not sculpting).

2. Model companies make no effort to expand the player base. They do not reach out to non-wargamers. Instead, they are perfectly content to continue squeezing money from existing customers. Until they give out and get out. This approach has been wholeheartedly embraced by GW, who seem to have no faith in wargaming anymore. I don't believe this approach is sustainable and I fear wargaming might go the way of RPG's, becoming even more niche than it is.

Wow really? Are you saying that's what you're seeing from the actual industry? Not just GW?

I've seen prices staying level while quality for the most part goes up, or prices raising about in line with inflation, from companies that are not GW. The new Infinity stuff is jaw droppingly amazing, Dystopian Wars stuff has also gotten a lot better.
GW is raising prices and dropping quality, the rest of the market certainly isn't unless that is something specific to the Poland market.

And again, GW isn't expanding their player base, they are squeezing their customers, but they are not embracing this trend, they are the only ones doing it.

Wargaming as a whole is here to stay.
40K I'm not so sure, GW puts out a lot of high quality PLASTIC kits but the rest of their lin leaves something to be desired for me. That coupled with their, what I feel, is a very lazy ruleset and unbalanced codex roster makes me worried about 40Ks future. I feel like GW could pick up a few things from Privateer Press, the company that makes Infinity, and Wyrd.

Wargaming ? 10/10. 40k ? 3/10. WHFB ? 2/10.

Recruiting new players is becoming quite difficult. I used to lie to beginners and tell them that "a 800 pts army is enough, you don't have to spend more money for a bigger army if you don't want to". I don't do that anymore. Guess what ? People are reluctant to start WHFB/40k and begin to look elsewhere. Especially when more experienced gamers try to be honest and tell them the true cost of an average (no Draigowing, no tyranid horde...) 40k army, with books.

The future of 40k looks grim. And dark.

 -DE- wrote:
1. It is too expensive.

Historicals tend to be way less expensive. There is no IP on Roman Legionnaries, Teutonic Knights or Stuart Tanks. And plenty of companies out there. Just stay away from the 28mm scale.

My 6mm DBA numidian army has cost me less than 14€. My roman and carthaginian armies have cost me less than 35€. 50€ for three armies, that's not too bad.


I plan to build a Bolt Action matching pair. Two forces, standard format (1000 pts). No elite troops, no heavy tanks, plenty of minis. I'll use 1/72 miniatures.

A french army would be very expensive. Mind you, 31€ for a 1100 pts force with 70 infantrymen and 2 light tanks.
Russians, Italians or Brits would be less expensive, 29, 24 and 23€. These armies would have 90+ infantrymen, 2 light/medium tanks and be large enough to play 1500 pts games.

Sure, the "death" of GW has been prophesied for years now, but things have, indeed, truly changed for the worse in recent years. The signs are all there. GW continues to cut costs, but still fails to show a growth in earnings despite the overall growth of the industry itself. GW's management has gotten them into this position, and they're incapable of getting them out of it. A massive overhaul of the entire upper management is required, and even that may not be enough without a significant investment of capital to go with it.

Eventually GW's inertia will run out, as that's what is really sustaining it.

In two years I spent at least two grand on GW when I started my new job. Then I quit buying GW stuff other than paint. I know I'm only a small drop in the water, but that's an average of a grand a year they aren't getting from me. And I'm 95% I'm lowballing-probably closer to $1500 a year. GW has made a huge mistake in tossing off purchasers like me. Are there people who spend more per year? Oh yeah. Was I a small buyer? Definitely not. That said, calling GW THE hobby is a very narrow-minded thought process. Wargaming is growing. GW is shrinking.

 jonolikespie wrote:

 TheKbob wrote:
Go read the 12 page series of articles from masterminis.net and come back to talk. That's written by someone far more educated than us forum dwellars on business and has been in the hobby of "GW" since the inception. It has all the factual accuracy you need, but then agian, you'll still hand wave it and ignore it. Just like GW. Do you work for them?

I'll even save you the effort of a google search: http://masterminis.blogspot.com/2013/08/the-future-of-games-days-games-workshop.html

Then again, it's just award winning journalism written by an experienced executive officer (and massive nerd with his own minis based business) of a multi-billion dollar international corporation, but hey, everyone on the internet is wrong and they're just butt hurt whingers™.

This part here really blew my mind when my mate told me who this guy was, and it makes dismissive responses like Ailaros' seem intentionally ignorant.

Pretty much you have to be intentionally ignorant to think that GW is doing fine or that simply existing for years is indicative of doing something right. There are plenty of businesses that have been around for a long time yet still are declining.

 jonolikespie wrote:
GW is raising prices and dropping quality, the rest of the market certainly isn't unless that is something specific to the Poland market.

Please tell me you're joking about GW dropping quality. Criticizing GW for their either short-sighted ideas or intentional dickery is one thing, but saying poodoo like that is just bullfeces. GW is only improving with their sculpts ever since they invested in more artists to work for them. Dark Vengeance snap-together, starter set kits made everyone go oooh and aaaah while every new plastic character (hell, even kits - have you seen the Vanguard/Sternguard vets?) is just great.

Even though I am a huge fan of Warmahordes, most of their sculpts are outdated. Of course Infinity has gorgeous miniatures that look fantastic most the times, even if majority of the poses is absurdly ridiculous like it was designed by some butthurt gymnast that wants to share his passion with the world by sculpting the mini in absurd poses, but in Poland Infinity miniatures are fairly expensive too. Of course you need 5 times fewer minis for a regular game than for 40k, but the army will hardly cost 5 times less with single models costing at least 32$.

Also - my point still stands - there's no real competition for the 40k's niche. There is no big sci-fi game with models and battles the scale of 40k, not even mentioning an unique fluff. Hell, even the big tabletop titles have mostly bad(Infinity) or extremely derpy(WarmaHordes) fluff.

P.s. - fun fact, most people in my FLGS say that the price increase is okay with most the updated kits because if the huge sculpt improvement over the last years. And believe me, they aren't rich kids that are okay with that just because they can afford it.

 Klerych wrote:

 jonolikespie wrote:
GW is raising prices and dropping quality, the rest of the market certainly isn't unless that is something specific to the Poland market.

Please tell me you're joking about GW dropping quality. Criticizing GW for their either short-sighted ideas or intentional dickery is one thing, but saying poodoo like that is just bullfeces.

Easy.

Codecis. Look at the rulebooks. It's well established that hardcovers increase cost marginally, but the extra "jacket cost" reaps higher profits on the "gotta have it" crowd. This is a common tactic employed in standard book publishing. It's why new releases are always hardbacks. Minimal additional cost at higher profits. Color is moot as we can see their competitors offer full color softbacks that are bigger than the previous codecis at $35.

So we are getting the same contet as a $33 dex at $50. A lot of them are having a much higher photo content. Model photos are valueless. Note, not worthless, worth is based on whether you like them, but if you wanted to see pictures of amazing models, you can easily reference dozens of sites that cater to the novice to the professional painter. Anecdotally, there are way cooler Imperial Knights on the net right now way better than anything you'll see in the codex. The fluff is hit or miss AND it's far cheaper in Black Library offerings. Let's not even forget that there are three indpendant wikis for 40k to get all the back information you could ever want.

So thanks to modern offerings, photos in a codex are of little to no value, the fluff, when not copied and pasted from the previous release, is what it is; it has little value to someone buying the third iteration of the book. If you're a long time player, you've seen fluff cut down or deleted, even.

So for a pure gamebook, which what codecis are, they have lost value. Period. Or we can talk about the gutting of books and releasing "fixes" in the form of data slates. $18 to run Cypher, one model. I can purchase that mini from Malifaux, rules are included. Warmachine? Rules included. Infinity? Already free on the internet... on, and on we can go.

The models are a bit more subjective on your aesthetic choice, but you could compare 10 IG versus 20 Dreamforge miniatures. I can do the same for much of the Fantasy line with options like Avatars of War or Kings of War with amazing sculpts at much cheaper. You could see boxes like Dire Avengers get cut in half at the same price. You can see single miniatures move from metal to resin/plastic and INCREASE in price. No other company does this; they reduce price when shifting to a cheaper material.

Let's not forget the new tools. $150 for a complete tool set. Yea, there's no defending that one, either.

We can do this all day. GW in a vacuum? Their value is dropping. GW in comparison to their competitors? Very much dropping. Only someone that is completely irrationally dedicated to the company at this point would dare to disagree given these facts of the matter.

Edit: Your entire argument relies on subjectivity of something being "derpy" or not. Regardless of your choice, my arguments all have factual weight to them of at least direct comparison within the company itself or with in kind competition. Also, note, that most of 40ks fluff is stolen and based upon the backs of the pioneering sci-fi writers of the 20th century. So while cool, calling it unique is chuckle worthy.

Well, our group has a bit lost grip. The confidence in 40k is definitely lower than it was last year before. The reasons are the obvious ones.

The exodus to WM/Hordes has begun. Maybe. Apo is still a big topic.

Well as a non competitive hobbyist I can say it will always be in me the love for WH40k minis especially my BA army. Just for it's collecting, customizing and painting aspect it's more than enough to keep me happy till the end. Mind you who knows what I will actually be doing after 10 years but as far as I can tell it will be around with me for life.

GW will always be "not how we remember them".
They will keep downsizing and changing all the time.
Could see it go to a 10 man operation with everything farmed out.
I do not expect them to die, just now their main focus is money rather than way back when to make "cool stuff that works" and the money would follow.
"Confidence in what" is the true question.
I am confident some games better than 40k will come out and we will not care as much about GW.
X-wing has helped, and new stuff from Battletech is making me happy.

The problem I have with GW's "quality" is that it's often too much for a small figure. Do you really care about intricate detail on a 28mm figure where most of it isn't going to be visible? If it was Inquisitor-size big figures, then hell yes that level of quality should be there, but on a 28mm the minute details are more annoying than anything else and makes the figure that much harder to paint because of all the tiny fiddly bits that are barely visible.

Basically their figures are quality, but the quality is on the wrong things. I'd rather take Warmachine or Kings of War infantry over 40k/WHFB infantry not because the individual figures are better, but because there isn't 1000x detail where only 100x is needed. These are small figures; if you can't easily see it then it shouldn't be there. GW used to espouse the idea that if it wouldn't be visible at a normal view on the tabletop (i.e. not picking it up to scrutinize) then you could ignore painting it or just paint it a dark color. They should have followed the same concept with creating the figures in the first place.

GW only really has two things going for it: 1) the rich background (mostly 40k as WHFB is pretty generic) and the detail of the figures, but see above in that I personally think the detail level is too much for normal grunts. If it was only character models that'd be one thing, but regular grunts don't look ornate, and I think the level of detail is just another excuse for charging more than everybody else.