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2014/04/17 17:12:02
Subject: Executioner Gets Hot! rolls, how many am I rolling?
I've got an executioner and am a liitle unsure about how Gets Hot! works for the main gun. It gets 3 shots, so do I roll 1 Gets Hot! for the weapon or 3 (one per shot)?
3000pts 30 wins 2 draws 12 loses
5000pts 13 wins 1 draws 9 losses
WoC "where the points don't matter" 6 wins 0 draws 4 losses
Things my Giant has pocketed for later in AoS: 1 zombie, 2 spirit hosts, 1 banshee, 1 zombie dragon, assorted phoenix guard
X-wing: Scum and Villainy
2014/04/17 17:15:18
Subject: Executioner Gets Hot! rolls, how many am I rolling?
Page 37 of the BRB, Gets Hot and Weapons That Do No Roll To Hit. First sentence.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/04/17 17:15:27
Greebo had spent an irritating two minutes in that box. Technically, a cat locked in a box may be alive or it may be dead. You never know until you look. In fact, the mere act of opening the box will determine the state of the cat, although in this case there were three determinate states the cat could be in: these being Alive, Dead, and Bloody Furious.
Orks always ride in single file to hide their strength and numbers.
Gozer the Gozerian, Gozer the Destructor, Volguus Zildrohar, Gozer the Traveler, and Lord of the Sebouillia
2014/04/17 17:15:53
Subject: Executioner Gets Hot! rolls, how many am I rolling?
grendel083 wrote: It's not too bad, as there are plenty of ways to get it a re-roll.
Like Primaries Psykers or Wyrdvane Psykers or allies with Divination (as long as their Battle Brothers) or stick Pask in there and lob the large blast template instead.
2014/04/17 22:06:40
Subject: Executioner Gets Hot! rolls, how many am I rolling?
grendel083 wrote: It's not too bad, as there are plenty of ways to get it a re-roll.
Like Primaries Psykers or Wyrdvane Psykers or allies with Divination (as long as their Battle Brothers) or stick Pask in there and lob the large blast template instead.
Or preferred enemy, which Pask get's (against a selected Codex).
grendel083 wrote: It's not too bad, as there are plenty of ways to get it a re-roll.
Like Primaries Psykers or Wyrdvane Psykers or allies with Divination (as long as their Battle Brothers) or stick Pask in there and lob the large blast template instead.
Or preferred enemy, which Pask get's (against a selected Codex).
True, true. Forgot about that option.
2014/04/20 21:43:57
Subject: Executioner Gets Hot! rolls, how many am I rolling?
jae4x4 wrote: so twin linked on a executioner gives re-rolls on the gets hot 1s?
Absolutely, Twin Linked is even the example given in the Gets hot and re-rolls rule(and Get's hot with weapons that do not roll to hit)
This is my Rulebook. There are many Like it, but this one is mine. Without me, my rulebook is useless. Without my rulebook, I am useless.
Stop looking for buzz words and start reading the whole sentences.
2014/04/21 03:15:50
Subject: Re:Executioner Gets Hot! rolls, how many am I rolling?
Or would he just reroll each of the three small template get's hot rolls?
I love the firepower the executioner puts out, but too big of a chance to to kill yourself....Gets hot on the main gun was a huge nerf.
.Only a fool believes there is such a thing as price gouging. Things have value determined by the creator or merchant. If you don't agree with that value, you are free not to purchase.
2014/04/21 03:37:51
Subject: Executioner Gets Hot! rolls, how many am I rolling?
The chance to melt your executioner to slag in 1 shooting is rather slim.
There is an 8.3333% chance to lose a hull point for each shot fired; That makes for a 41.666% chance to take a single hull point each shooting phase(Assuming I remembered how to compound percentages correctly)
This is my Rulebook. There are many Like it, but this one is mine. Without me, my rulebook is useless. Without my rulebook, I am useless.
Stop looking for buzz words and start reading the whole sentences.
2014/04/21 04:03:16
Subject: Executioner Gets Hot! rolls, how many am I rolling?
Easier to work out the probability of not taking any hull points in a round of shooting than the probability of exactly one.
Assuming no re-rolls, the probability is 1/6 (pre-shot roll a 1) * 1/2 (vehicle takes the HP on a 4+) to take a single hull point per shot, for a probability of 1/12.
Thus, the probability of taking no hullpoints is (1 - 1/12) ^ y where y is the number of shots. Assuming full plasma, y is 5. So (1 - 1/12)^5 = (11/12)^5 = 161051 / 248832 which is roughly 65%.
2014/04/21 04:44:35
Subject: Executioner Gets Hot! rolls, how many am I rolling?
Chrysis wrote: Easier to work out the probability of not taking any hull points in a round of shooting than the probability of exactly one.
Assuming no re-rolls, the probability is 1/6 (pre-shot roll a 1) * 1/2 (vehicle takes the HP on a 4+) to take a single hull point per shot, for a probability of 1/12.
Thus, the probability of taking no hullpoints is (1 - 1/12) ^ y where y is the number of shots. Assuming full plasma, y is 5. So (1 - 1/12)^5 = (11/12)^5 = 161051 / 248832 which is roughly 65%.
I realized I did have an error in my math(actually hit the wrong button on my calculator), Chance for a single is 35.2772%, The Chance for more goes down with each additional hull point removed until you get down to nearly the 9%-ish of the Single Shot=Single hull point.
I like to show the chance for at least 1 with the knowledge that more is even slimmer because it really showcases how little of a chance their really is for the thing to happen(Not that over 1/3 of the time is that slim a chance for the 1 but still.) The 64.722% chance for none is a little misleading on its own since it is a Binary result
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/04/21 04:56:28
This is my Rulebook. There are many Like it, but this one is mine. Without me, my rulebook is useless. Without my rulebook, I am useless.
Stop looking for buzz words and start reading the whole sentences.
2014/04/21 05:10:23
Subject: Executioner Gets Hot! rolls, how many am I rolling?
Chrysis wrote: Easier to work out the probability of not taking any hull points in a round of shooting than the probability of exactly one.
Assuming no re-rolls, the probability is 1/6 (pre-shot roll a 1) * 1/2 (vehicle takes the HP on a 4+) to take a single hull point per shot, for a probability of 1/12.
Thus, the probability of taking no hullpoints is (1 - 1/12) ^ y where y is the number of shots. Assuming full plasma, y is 5. So (1 - 1/12)^5 = (11/12)^5 = 161051 / 248832 which is roughly 65%.
And if you factor in the Pask reroll???? 35% is still a really good chance to lose a hull point.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/04/21 05:12:54
.Only a fool believes there is such a thing as price gouging. Things have value determined by the creator or merchant. If you don't agree with that value, you are free not to purchase.
2014/04/21 05:16:30
Subject: Executioner Gets Hot! rolls, how many am I rolling?
On it's own, definitely misleading. It needs to be coupled with the idea that the other half of the binary result is between 1 and 5 (in this case), rather than a specific number.
The benefit of it is that it's the second easiest to calculate, with easiest being "strips 5 hull points" in this case. Ignoring that the LR doesn't have that many hull points to strip.
Edit: Factoring in a re-roll of the Gets Hot! roll, we'd get the following.
For a single shot:
(1/6 * 1/6)[probability of Getting Hot!] * 1/2 = 1/36 * 1/2 = 1 / 72. Or roughly 1.4%
Losing no Hull Points from a 5 gun volley:
(1 - 1/72) ^5 = (71/72)^5 = 1804229351 / 1934917632. Or roughly 93%.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/04/21 05:23:46
2014/04/21 05:21:41
Subject: Executioner Gets Hot! rolls, how many am I rolling?
Only a 6.7542% chance to get at least 1 lost hull point from 5 shots with Pask re-rolls.
You have 1/6 of 1/6 chance to get hot, then 50% of those drop a hull point; Factor over 5 shots for at least 1 result.
This is my Rulebook. There are many Like it, but this one is mine. Without me, my rulebook is useless. Without my rulebook, I am useless.
Stop looking for buzz words and start reading the whole sentences.
2014/04/21 21:35:29
Subject: Re:Executioner Gets Hot! rolls, how many am I rolling?
Chances to lose Hull Points via Get's Hot without Pask or any rerolls (twin-link, prefered enemy, etc) HP lost : % chance 0 : 64.7228 1 : 29.4194 2 : 5.3490 3+ : 0.5088
Chances to lose Hull Points via Get's Hot with Pask or any other source or rerolls HP lost : % chance 0 : 93.2458 1 : 6.5666 2 : 0.1850 3+ : 0.0026
This assumes you loaded it out with 5 gets hot shots, via plasma cannon sponsons, and therefore are making 5 Get's Hot rolls per turn.
with the following formulas: count 3>= (count 1= 5d6)d6 without rerolls
count 3>= (count 1= (count 1= 5d6)d6)d6 with rerolls
Also, that's per volley, so you are running those odds 5 to 7 times a game. So with Pask or other source of rerolls, you should have a 65.9082% chance of finishing 5 turns without taking a Hull Point, whereas without any rerolls, you only have a 10.7374% chance to escape unscathed from your own rolls.
This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2014/04/21 21:51:07
2014/04/21 21:58:44
Subject: Executioner Gets Hot! rolls, how many am I rolling?
Automatically Appended Next Post: Assuming you put heavy bolters on the sides, for a total of 29 shots, that's 91.981% chance to lose at least one HP, and 21.917% to lose all 3 in one volley. Not good.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/04/21 22:01:27
2014/04/21 22:09:36
Subject: Executioner Gets Hot! rolls, how many am I rolling?
spycer wrote: Yeah get's hot to a Punisher is murder.
Automatically Appended Next Post: Assuming you put heavy bolters on the sides, for a total of 29 shots, that's 91.981% chance to lose at least one HP, and 21.917% to lose all 3 in one volley. Not good.
Only 22%? I like those odds.
Greebo had spent an irritating two minutes in that box. Technically, a cat locked in a box may be alive or it may be dead. You never know until you look. In fact, the mere act of opening the box will determine the state of the cat, although in this case there were three determinate states the cat could be in: these being Alive, Dead, and Bloody Furious.
Orks always ride in single file to hide their strength and numbers.
Gozer the Gozerian, Gozer the Destructor, Volguus Zildrohar, Gozer the Traveler, and Lord of the Sebouillia
2014/04/21 22:19:06
Subject: Executioner Gets Hot! rolls, how many am I rolling?
spycer wrote: Yeah get's hot to a Punisher is murder.
Automatically Appended Next Post: Assuming you put heavy bolters on the sides, for a total of 29 shots, that's 91.981% chance to lose at least one HP, and 21.917% to lose all 3 in one volley. Not good.
Only 22%? I like those odds.
Seriously though, I'm at the point I recognize that I'm a lot less likely to roll that average enough to count on it and more likely to just make a big ol' mess. :p
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2014/04/21 22:19:31
2014/04/21 23:00:52
Subject: Executioner Gets Hot! rolls, how many am I rolling?
3000pts 30 wins 2 draws 12 loses
5000pts 13 wins 1 draws 9 losses
