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Davor wrote:
GW gave people what they wanted in 7th. A rule book they don't have to LUG around and be so bulky and heavy. People still complain.

Because they didn't give people what they've been asking for, for 3 previous editions now.

The 7th ed rulebook is more convenient to carry around than the 6th ed one was, sure. But you still have to buy the whole 3-book set to get it, and it's more expensive than 6th ed was.

What people wanted was a cheaper softcover alternative. Not a more expensive differently-formatted hardcover.

 insaniak wrote:
The 7th ed rulebook is more convenient to carry around than the 6th ed one was, sure. But you still have to buy the whole 3-book set to get it, and it's more expensive than 6th ed was.

What people wanted was a cheaper softcover alternative. Not a more expensive differently-formatted hardcover.

Exactly. I already bought the 6th edition rulebook, I don't need another copy of the fluff and model pictures. And I shouldn't have to ebay a copy of the starter set rulebook to get what I want.

Apu: Stand behind the flaming garbage cans. We'll be letting you into the store, seventy people at a time.

Kirk Van Houten: Oh, let's just beat him up and take his stuff!

Apu: No, no, no, do not listen to that man. Remain calm. You will all have a chance to be gouged.

 insaniak wrote:

Davor wrote:
GW gave people what they wanted in 7th. A rule book they don't have to LUG around and be so bulky and heavy. People still complain.

Because they didn't give people what they've been asking for, for 3 previous editions now.

The 7th ed rulebook is more convenient to carry around than the 6th ed one was, sure. But you still have to buy the whole 3-book set to get it, and it's more expensive than 6th ed was.

What people wanted was a cheaper softcover alternative. Not a more expensive differently-formatted hardcover.

Not to mention the little, tiny, completely unimportant bit where people have been asking for balanced rules!

Is 7th edition balanced?

Not from anything that I have seen or heard.

Is 7th what people have been asking for?

No.

Do I think that GW is 'going under'?

Yes, but slowly, and they might yet pull out of the spiral - but I have seen no sign of them taking the steps needed to do so.

They are drowning, and their management has thrown them an anchor.

The Auld Grump

I do not at this time think that GW is going under. I do feel that they are going to lose money and be forced to listen to someone who actually plays the game and take a good hard listen to some serious feed back. If they do not do that then I believe they will go under. For the time being they are treading water and starting to lose energy.

Here is some more anecdotal evidence. I travel a lot for work and frequent the same 6-7 cities 2-3 times a year. I have the two flgs in my home town and 1 (one just closed) in my city of residence.

Over the past few years since sixth came about the average game day in the larger cities has been steadily shrinking for 6-8 games going at a time to 2-3. That is pretty much every city I frequent. Not to mention local tournaments would be full at 20-30 players now I am seeing them canceled because they can't get more than 10.

Back in fifth you would be hard pressed to find any other game being played aside from fantasy/LOTR(which are all but dead in most of the shops). Now on any given 40k day all the now empty tables are being occupied by warmahordes, x-win, malifaux, FoW, and a few others I am not familiar with.

What is the big difference between these companies and GW? In my observation it is online presence and social media to an extent. Many of these companies have actual forums and you can see actual staff respond to people, accept criticism and respect the feedback good or bad.

PP is doing an amazing job. When I wanted to try the game out I was able to have a press ganger (an ambassador to the game sanctioned by PP) meet me with a few armies and play a few games and give me a great rundown. They even gave me free swag, set of dice and a solo for the faction I wanted to play. I was instantly sold and purchased an army and ended up taking a used army off someones hand.

PP has actual tournaments streamed on twitch, I have watched x-wing streamed online and other games but I cannot find any representation of GW products via any venue other than blogs.

GW needs to get their heads out of the sand and do things like these other companies. I have no issue with the cost of the models if the rules are tight and properly balanced.

If they don't bring themselves into the 21st century then they will be in trouble. People will only hold on so long and with the mass media available to take the interest away people will go elsewhere.

In all honesty PPs' practices are very similar to GW 20 years ago.

That said, I agree they are doing a great job.

 Bullockist wrote:
In all honesty PPs' practices are very similar to GW 20 years ago.

Coincidentally the mid to late 90's was GW's best period in terms of creativity, quality and generally goodness.

I think that the very best outcome on Tuesday is that the financial report is dire, but not fatal, forcing a complete management change and a root and branch restructuring of the entire company into something more fit for the internet age. I can see no other way that GW will retain its position in the wargaming market.

I think pretending social media doesn't exist has been their biggest mistake. However, when you constantly make decisions that only get you flamed endlessly on social media, it's hard to keep it going. You end up getting more bad publicity than good from it. First, they would have to stop doing things that get them blasted on social media. Then they can engage the community again through venues like facebook. Whether that will ever happen is anyone's guess, but given GW's history of pretending they live in a vacuum, I would bet against it. GW badly needs to return to what made them great in the first place. I just hope they're willing and able to do so instead of continuing to fight lost revenue with strategies that only drive more customers into the open arms of the competition in the long run.

Toofast wrote:
I think pretending social media doesn't exist has been their biggest mistake.

I agree. The lack of engagement with social media is arguably far more of an Achilles heel than the pricing. Closing the discussion boards is one thing - others have done similar, because you're paying to support trolls (or justified criticism, depending on your viewpoint). But closing the Facebook pages, where you could book games at Warhammer World... why?

Then there's the website, which was a good source of vibes, with bits of fluff. They've eliminated almost everything that gave it some flavour and turned it into an e-commerce site. Given that a lot of their sales are direct-only, I can only see it losing them business. There is no business rationale for the stie redesign that I can see. All it will do is reduce browsing, and consequent impulse purchases.

The point about the site is an interesting one that many don't think about due to the other, more obvious issues with the way GW has been doing business lately. I couldn't agree with you more there. I remember the days when I would spend hours browsing painting and modeling tutorials on the GW site and reading their forums. Now, I go there to order stuff, check out new releases, or show my friends how insanely priced some of the boxed sets are ($2,600 orks for example). I guess GW's logic is that any painting or modeling tips that are posted for free on the site can't be put into a $4 weekly WD. If you want those, now you have to pay. I think it would be more profitable to keep those on the site and try to gain revenue from browsing and impulse purchases as you stated but what do I know about war gaming? I'm just a player, not an accountant.

Dakka painting forums and gallery are amazing resources, I couldn't give a feth about GW cutting that stuff from their site tbh ; p It would be a nice service (and virtually free to provide) but waaaay down the list of complaints given fans do that stuff better.

Toofast wrote:
The point about the site is an interesting one that many don't think about due to the other, more obvious issues with the way GW has been doing business lately. I couldn't agree with you more there. I remember the days when I would spend hours browsing painting and modeling tutorials on the GW site and reading their forums. Now, I go there to order stuff, check out new releases, or show my friends how insanely priced some of the boxed sets are ($2,600 orks for example). I guess GW's logic is that any painting or modeling tips that are posted for free on the site can't be put into a $4 weekly WD. If you want those, now you have to pay. I think it would be more profitable to keep those on the site and try to gain revenue from browsing and impulse purchases as you stated but what do I know about war gaming? I'm just a player, not an accountant.

I think we may be done with $4 painting guides. Now we are going for $24 ones (http://www.games-workshop.com/en-US/Eavy-Metal-Masterclass-Librarian).

GW has completely lost their marbles.

For that price I could just pay someone to paint the darn thing for me.

I'm not an economist, and can't give an expert opinion, but in my lay opinion, GWS business practices as of late do not seem sustainable.

 Ouze wrote:
I'm not an economist, and can't give an expert opinion, but in my lay opinion, GWS business practices as of late do not seem sustainable.

Partially agreed.

From a practical standpoint, they need to figure out how to attract more customers without alienating their current customer base. But they can only sustain crazy release schedules and forcing players to invest hundreds of dollars every several months to remain competitive for only so long.

I have hope that boxed deals that have come out recently are a thing going forward because that is a good idea to attract more fans and retain the ones still invested in playing.

I loved the idea of Stormclaw until, of course, it was sold out before I could get a copy. At least people are making good money on ebay, I guess.

Ouze, have you checked in store anywhere?

The Stores I've been to this week (3) had stock of Stormclaw in store.

As for GW going under , I can't see it in the short to medium term. The indicator you all want to be looking for is GW closing large numbers of stores in one go.

Perhaps "going under" is the wrong term to use. I mean, they have cash reserves so it's unlikely that they'll just close up shop. The question should rather be if they can sustain themselves, to which I think the answer long-term is definitely "NO".

Their business model is not sustainable. They might be able to coast along for a while without danger, but if you are losing customers and not attracting new ones, eventually you're going to hit a point where the customers you have left can't support your expenses, and THEN you start depleting your cash reserves to make ends meet, and it's just downward from there.

That day is coming unless GW changes their business plan and operations; it might not be "soon" but it's definitely on the horizon, because increasing prices to make up for customers leaving is a ridiculous idea, and one that will eventually piss off the customers you have left.

Well, i think that a significant indicator is the proliferation of tabletop miniature games.

I started playing in 3rd Edition, back in the days of the Big Black Book. At my FLGS, I only remember 40k and Fantasy being played. So, that would put it somewhere between 1998 and 2000, I'd say.

When I was in Tennessee to work on my first Master's (2007 to 2009), 40k and Fantasy were played at my FLGS, but so was Warmachine and Flames of War. In fact, I think I recall more Warmachine tournies than 40k/Fantasy tournies. We did have Press Gangers in the crowd that went to my FLGS, though.

Now, my FLGS up here in Connecticut has more Warmachine games on a regular basis than 40k/Fantasy games.

So, judging by my anecdotal evidence, the market share that Games Workshop has enjoyed for several decades is being eroded. They're still the 800 pound gorilla in the room, but Privateer Press is looking like a 600 pound gorilla who is eating a *whole* bunch of protein and lifting weights all day.

Privateer Press trade at a turnover of circa $15M per year (reported at a convention).

GW turned over £136M in YR to 2013 (up from 2012) that's circa $230M (as reported).

Your gorilla may be smaller that you thought.

GW may well contract in the current year but it has a huge way to go before they are in true competition with any other single miniatures game company.

 notprop wrote:
Privateer Press trade at a turnover of circa $15M per year (reported at a convention).

That is a fallacy that has of yet to be even remotely confirmed by anyone. I follow PP since 2003, I listened to every one of their announcements in every convention that they made, they've never even mentioned anything remotely close to what their business volume is.

 notprop wrote:

GW may well contract in the current year but it has a huge way to go before they are in true competition with any other single miniatures game company.

There never will be another company that will be as big as GW was/is. What there will be is a continuation of the thriving ecosystem of wargames that have sprung up over the last 5 years. The internet will ensure that GW's near monopoly will not be replicated and that can only be a good thing. Its entirely possible that the combined revenues of all the other fantasy and Sci Fi war games producers already eclipse GW and I would be very surprised if the historicals market isn't significantly bigger.

And I would be very surprised if that was the case, but that's not the question is it?

Keep an eye on property and retail. GWs turnover is dependent on their retail stores, any great shake up in these sectors will overly effect GW but not anytime soon I would suggest.

 notprop wrote:
And I would be very surprised if that was the case, but that's not the question is it?

Keep an eye on property and retail. GWs turnover is dependent on their retail stores, any great shake up in these sectors will overly effect GW but not anytime soon I would suggest.

GWs turnover is dependent on their retail stores in the UK and the UK only represents 23% of GW's total revenue.

What I would really like to know is how much of the 70+m pounds in operating expenses correspond to the running of their retail arm.

Close all GW shops and I bet that suddenly its profits would skyrocket again.

 notprop wrote:
but that's not the question is it?

No its not, but GW's position as the biggest fish in the wargaming pond is no longer relevant given that there is a multitude of vibrant and thriving competition. One of GW's big draws was the ease with which you could get pick up games, today though clubs have diversified massively to the extent that you are now no longer guaranteed (in so far as you can guarantee) a GW pick up game, that is something that I never saw, or even thought possible, until a few years ago.

GW's retail arm will soon be a millstone round its neck, if it isn't already, which all its competitors are completely unaffected by.

God damn though, I think I myself have been pulled into this whole market place thing a bit too much myself. Games workshop IS NOT GOING UNDER ANY TIME SOON, IT IS A HOBBY STORE AND PEOPLE STILL READILY BUY THEIR STUFF. It's reliant on the community wanting to continue the hobby, and the only statistics that matter are sales in individual stores.

It's demise will only come once people become disinterested in their products. There is only one variable that they have to look at; did the store make a profit? Yes? Then it will continue. It failed to? Then the store will close and business will be directed either online or to another store, once again making them profitable.

Their stocks can do loops for all anyone cares but if they make profits they will continue to produce. It is the only variable other than the world supply of plastic running out. And the thing is with all these people talking about Warmachine and what not, no one knows what the hell it is before they know warhammer. It's become the coca cola of board gaming. I know that it was the first game I knew about when and Tbh the other may be good, but I've put so much effort into warhammer that it would be a waste of time and money for me to start another game when this takes up my hobby time already.

A better question would be "do you think that GW is loosing public interest?"

I have to admit I find GW's reliance on brick and mortar stores to be quite... obsolete. I get that that's how they built their reputation/market but the GW store has only ever really been a UK thing. There are very few in the USA and elsewhere, so it seems kind of odd that they still push it as being the be all, end all, nexus of the hobby when it's a very small fraction and a lot of overhead.

The fact they even bothered to have it outside of the UK is confusing as well.

Wargaming is a social experience and it helps a lot for new recruits to be shown how to choose and paint armies, build terrain, actually work through a game, and so on.

Thus face to face spaces -- B&M shops -- are a valuable marketing tool as well as being a place where people can buy things.

The concept of the FLGS is alive and well in the USA and forms a mainstay of the hobby community by all accounts.

GW's difficulty is they don't like GW products to appear alongside competing products but they cannot put the number of shops across the USA that would be needed to replace them, but again they apparently have decided to try and feth over their former independent FLGS sales partners and do it all online by themselves.

This has had a short term effect of improving their profits but in the long term it is not likely to help their sales as recruitment of new players will fall.

Past of the reason for the GW retail chain is legacy. GW used to be a major retailer of RPG and tabletop games. Over the decades it gradually became a retailer of GW games, then a retailer of Warhammer games (including Epic, Blood Bowl and so on) and now it has become a retailer of only WHFB and 40K. I think this is a mistake and they make more use of their retail chain by stocking a wider variety of products.

 notprop wrote:
Privateer Press trade at a turnover of circa $15M per year (reported at a convention).

GW turned over £136M in YR to 2013 (up from 2012) that's circa $230M (as reported).

Your gorilla may be smaller that you thought.

GW may well contract in the current year but it has a huge way to go before they are in true competition with any other single miniatures game company.

I don't think there will ever be a single miniatures company the size of GW again. However, I think GW's revenues will end up being split by a lot of companies instead. We are more likely to see 10-20 companies with sales of $10m-$20m that end up eating that GW pie. That is usually how the big companies get taken apart in most markets.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 thetallestgiraffe wrote:
It's demise will only come once people become disinterested in their products. There is only one variable that they have to look at; did the store make a profit? Yes? Then it will continue. It failed to? Then the store will close and business will be directed either online or to another store, once again making them profitable.

A better question would be "do you think that GW is loosing public interest?"

And this is their biggest problem! They have only two effective products now - WHFB and WH40k. If the public does indeed lose interest in one of those product families, most specifically 40k, GW will go down very fast. This is why most 30 year old companies DIVERSIFY product ranges. GW, on the other hand, has done the exact opposite - and it leaves them in a very precarious situation if the gaming public does lose interest, en mass, in one of their titles now.

 Wayshuba wrote:


And this is their biggest problem! They have only two effective products now - WHFB and WH40k. If the public does indeed lose interest in one of those product families, most specifically 40k, GW will go down very fast. This is why most 30 year old companies DIVERSIFY product ranges. GW, on the other hand, has done the exact opposite - and it leaves them in a very precarious situation if the gaming public does lose interest, en mass, in one of their titles now.

I don't know about some of you, but I would make it rain at GW if BFG and/or Epic were released with all new plastics.