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Jancoran wrote:From 2010 until 6th Edition, BIG gains. 6th Tanked it.

Jancoran wrote:
and i didnt say it was the 2014 report. Someone else injected that.

I know you didn't say it was 2014 report. You said 6th was the thing that killed it. I'm telling you you're wrong and that it was the report that caused the stock drop.

Sorry dude, that just doesn't stack up.

There was no indication that GW was struggling until that interim report came out. The share price was healthy, they hadn't missed a dividend for quite a while.

It was a shock for many, although I'll admit to experiencing a small amount of glee too, and to try and say that 7th was as a result of investor backlash off some other report which was much more "everything's fine, here's some dividends" just doesn't make sense.

 Jancoran wrote:


So go back to just a couple months before 6E. Then look at about one year AFTER 6E.

THAT, not a 2014 report, is what did it. Just go look. Its dramatic.

You mean one of their highest points in 5 years?

Spring 2013? Am I reading you right? Because that's one of their highs. The drop just so happened very shortly after the annual report and no dividend was announced.

Right, at close on 15 Jan 2014, GAW was valued at £7.23 per share.

On the 16th Jan 2014, GW published a report detailing a substantial drop in revenue and profit, and declared no dividend.

By close on the 16th Jan 2014 GAW was valued at £5.51 per share, and continued on a steady decline until March, And even now is only valued at £5.31 at time of writing.

By contrast, the EOY report 2012/13 was published on the 30 July, and was at a 3 year high by the 2 August, only 70p higher than it was when the day before the 13/14 interim report was released, and somewhere in the region of £2 per share higher than the time around 6th was released.

I repeat, your argument doesn't stack with the events as they happened Jancoran.

 Jancoran wrote:

 Azreal13 wrote:
Please don't tell me you gave me a lecture on supply and demand?

Besides, if it wasn't the 2014 report, what report was it? They were ticking along nicely up until that was released.

Point is...I never said the 2014 report caused it. Thats important.

So go back to just a couple months before 6E. Then look at about one year AFTER 6E.

THAT, not a 2014 report, is what did it. Just go look. Its dramatic.

Couple of months before 6th, May 2012: Stable around 570p.

One year after 6th, summer 2013: 750p.

What are you driving at?

 Thud wrote:


What are you driving at?

Only Jancoran knows.

um... I know WHAt you're saying but you have to look at this on a much more macro scale man. im not telling you anything you cant google, but $470.20 is the 52 weeklow.

23rd of June 2012 was the release date for 6th. So the stock closed at 587.50 July 1. This was a HIGH number for them already. VOLUME of trading went WAY up during the following months. like 50% type of up which is big time.

Prices rose based on all the product releases and other goodies and the usual reasons when a product launches. they got ALL THE WAY TO $823 in September 2013. So that's a year and two months of sales esentially, maybe slightly less depending on when reporting happened.

You with me? Cause THATS HUGE. That means people PAID that much to get in on GW. PAID IT. Now with rare exception, if you look (and this again is nothing new you cant find out on your own, but I happened to have blogged on it back a while ago) this In June 2013 there was an enormous movement at $749. So I mean We are year in. Confidence slipped here.

But the other shoe had dropped. Players were FILLING this place and a hundred like it with venomous poisons and hate mail. Still are and my proof is saved in a thousand thousand threads here. and the interns were watching and paying attention. GW already knew it and they were ahead of it because its what they do.

And now? Lol. NOW the 52 week low of $470 ALMOST HALF OF ITS HIGH according to Yahoo finance (see their data for all this btw). but thats not all. The exact progression of thought I Told you happened is mapped out numerically. The slide was DRAMATIC. The very next month and EVERY month after for five months it tumbled. But this was again, something GW probably anticipated just based on the online traffic. Investors might not have dug deep enough at first but they started digging FAST.

Not until 7th Edition was announced was their significant movement in the positive after that. It was announced May 17th and wouldnt you know it... In June the stock recovered to $622 in June.

But that just encouraged further sell off and $531 is where it sits. Snake bitten. and now the company is almost ASSUREDLY under great scrutiny by its investors and I doubt any of them that have lost hundreds of thousands on paper are doing anything but their utmost to get the price to a sellable point.

or looking for a buy out that could make them a lot of their money back all at once.

Was THERE a point IN all OF that?

You still haven't explained the importance of what happened a year after the release of 6th edition with regards to stock prices. Or anything. Just a lot of unprovable theories that investors were doing deep research into the community and anxiously alerted GW to sort themselves out.

Whoops, sorry, almost forgot to capitalize random words. IS this ANY better FOR you?

So it seems we've found it, the spirit of the game is pointless speculation.

 Crablezworth wrote:
So it seems we've found it, the spirit of the game is pointless speculation.

Also yes.

Opponent has three riptides, possible bond villain.

I'd go with groundless over pointless at this juncture.

At any rate, I'm glad GW could see that 6th wasn't very popular and reward its fanbase with a new 7th edition rulebook selling for the cost of the collector's editions of 5th, in cycle less than 2 years before. So generous

I distinctly remember people speaking out against the rumors of 7th coming on the heels of 6th as hearsay and conjecture from the fan-emies of GW, stating how wrong the information was, and that we couldn't possibly know what they were up to. Of course, once it was made official we were now to supposed to be grateful that GW cared so much about the game!

 Crablezworth wrote:
Opponent has three riptides, possible bond villain.

Its like that friend you had who'd always pick Odd Job in N64 Goldeneye.

 Blacksails wrote:
Was THERE a point IN all OF that?

You still haven't explained the importance of what happened a year after the release of 6th edition with regards to stock prices. Or anything. Just a lot of unprovable theories that investors were doing deep research into the community and anxiously alerted GW to sort themselves out.

Whoops, sorry, almost forgot to capitalize random words. IS this ANY better FOR you?

Did you not...read...anything... anyways. Hitting the eject button. If you cannot understand the basic time line here... which I laid out in detail for you... then what more is there to say?

6th...Edition...happened. peoples RESPONSE to it and the subsequent damage WAS...the problem.

You...have...no...proof...for...any...of...these...claims.

On an unrelated note, is it possible for you to type without capitalizing random words or adding ellipses everywhere?

Seriously though, you have just about zero grounds for any of the claims you've made, and whenever someone has called you out, you've sidestepped it with long winded explanations that again, have no grounds in anything provable or observable.

You're putting way too much stock in that GW actually listened. Had they really well and truly listened and succumbed to the will of the player, we wouldn't have received 7th; we would have had an updated 6th at no or very little extra cost. That and I'm fairly certain the huge investor corporations that hold a lot of stock in GW don't care about what is really a very small company.

But nobody outside of GW knew the extent of the damage until Jan 2014.

That's where your whole argument collapses.

It would be insider trading if anyone at GW was feeding info to the stockholders beforehand.

 Blacksails wrote:
Just a lot of unprovable theories that investors were doing deep research into the community and anxiously alerted GW to sort themselves out.

I think the best part of this theory is the idea that GW didn't listen to the community (where all of the complaints already existed) at all before some random point, and then suddenly decided to make major changes based on panic about what was happening on random forums.

Not to mention not actually doing anything much of the feedback was suggesting.

I don't seem to recall any vocal complaints about lacking a psychic phase, or that army construction rules were too tight and needed to be done away with.

The idea that GW listened to anyone other than GW makes me not believe it.

We're pretty far off topic now though.

I forgot what it is we were supposed to be discussing.

I need another drink.

 Jancoran wrote:
um... I know WHAt you're saying but you have to look at this on a much more macro scale man. im not telling you anything you cant google, but $470.20 is the 52 weeklow.

23rd of June 2012 was the release date for 6th. So the stock closed at 587.50 July 1. This was a HIGH number for them already. VOLUME of trading went WAY up during the following months. like 50% type of up which is big time.

Prices rose based on all the product releases and other goodies and the usual reasons when a product launches. they got ALL THE WAY TO $823 in September 2013. So that's a year and two months of sales esentially, maybe slightly less depending on when reporting happened.

You with me? Cause THATS HUGE. That means people PAID that much to get in on GW. PAID IT. Now with rare exception, if you look (and this again is nothing new you cant find out on your own, but I happened to have blogged on it back a while ago) this In June 2013 there was an enormous movement at $749. So I mean We are year in. Confidence slipped here.

But the other shoe had dropped. Players were FILLING this place and a hundred like it with venomous poisons and hate mail. Still are and my proof is saved in a thousand thousand threads here. and the interns were watching and paying attention. GW already knew it and they were ahead of it because its what they do.

And now? Lol. NOW the 52 week low of $470 ALMOST HALF OF ITS HIGH according to Yahoo finance (see their data for all this btw). but thats not all. The exact progression of thought I Told you happened is mapped out numerically. The slide was DRAMATIC. The very next month and EVERY month after for five months it tumbled. But this was again, something GW probably anticipated just based on the online traffic. Investors might not have dug deep enough at first but they started digging FAST.

Not until 7th Edition was announced was their significant movement in the positive after that. It was announced May 17th and wouldnt you know it... In June the stock recovered to $622 in June.

But that just encouraged further sell off and $531 is where it sits. Snake bitten. and now the company is almost ASSUREDLY under great scrutiny by its investors and I doubt any of them that have lost hundreds of thousands on paper are doing anything but their utmost to get the price to a sellable point.

or looking for a buy out that could make them a lot of their money back all at once.

July 1st 2012 was a Sunday. Not a lot of trading that day. On July 2nd, however, it closed at 568 pence. Not dollars. Pence.

June 2013 had growth throughout the month. Nothing dramatic happened.

May 17th to 24th had a slight increase in shareprice (~20p).

6th of June (a Friday) and the following Monday saw a much greater spike (going from 590p to 650p, approximately). Do you know what happened on June 6th? Of course you fething don't. The GW board declared a dividend.


Edit:

If you feel like coming back to reality, you can find all the info you need here:
http://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChart.asp?sharechart=GAW
http://investor.games-workshop.com/

 Thud wrote:
Do you know what happened on June 6th? Of course you fething don't. The GW board declared a dividend.

Shhhh, you're wrecking his theory.

 Jancoran wrote:
So go back to just a couple months before 6E. Then look at about one year AFTER 6E.

A year after 6th ed was released, the share price was hovering reasonably steady at nearly double the value it had before 6th ed was released.

The 'dramatic' drop in share price came in January 2014. So if you're not talking about that drop, I'm at a bit of a loss as to what you are talking about.

6th edition saw nothing but increase in share price right up until the rumours started in the months before the financial report that the report wasn't going to be great and that dividends might not be paid.

 Blacksails wrote:
We're pretty far off topic now though.

I forgot what it is we were supposed to be discussing.

I need another drink.

Why GW likes saying you can do that "but you're bad if you do" to things they have the power to fix.

 SilverDevilfish wrote:


Why GW likes saying you can do that "but you're bad if you do" to things they have the power to fix.

Oh that's right.

Silly GW.

Actually in all the communities I've been it's an awful surprise for me that the GW games community is one that looks down upon people wanting to win. I find it really, really weird.

I think jancoran and Runic live in some sort of alternate reality where if they repeat the same nonsensical argument loud enough and long enough without providing any concrete evidence, people will magically just believe them. They have bright futures in politics.

I stand by my argument that investors are not flipping through a 40k rulebook or reading dakka to determine whether to buy or sell stock in a company. Just the thought of it is ridiculous. They care about numbers and hard data, not opinions of Internet fanboys that make up a small minority of the customer base of a company that makes up an even smaller % of their portfolio. To say that 7th was created in response to interns from investment firms playing golf with Tom Kirby and complaining about 6th edition rules is so laughable it should be a cartoon. 7th was a response to bad financial numbers which led to GW being unable to pay dividends which led to shareholders dumping stock. I know that because logic.

heartserenade wrote:Actually in all the communities I've been it's an awful surprise for me that the GW games community is one that looks down upon people wanting to win. I find it really, really weird.

It is weird. I've always found it even funnier the people who claim to play some sort of 'fluffy' list that is a random hodge podge of models they own (which is fine), but look down or begrudge those who play equally (if not more so) fluffy lists that are also much stronger.

Toofast wrote:I think jancoran and Runic live in some sort of alternate reality where if they repeat the same nonsensical argument loud enough and long enough without providing any concrete evidence, people will magically just believe them. They have bright futures in politics.

I stand by my argument that investors are not flipping through a 40k rulebook or reading dakka to determine whether to buy or sell stock in a company. Just the thought of it is ridiculous. They care about numbers and hard data, not opinions of Internet fanboys that make up a small minority of the customer base of a company that makes up an even smaller % of their portfolio. To say that 7th was created in response to interns from investment firms playing golf with Tom Kirby and complaining about 6th edition rules is so laughable it should be a cartoon. 7th was a response to bad financial numbers which led to GW being unable to pay dividends which led to shareholders dumping stock. I know that because logic.

Its a great image though. Just imagine a board room meeting at a large investment board, with high level management all discussing the pros and cons of the new edition, eagerly debating how Unbound is either the best thing ever or the worst.

There are too many levels of disconnect between what the share price is and how well GW is actually doing. The share price is speculative, how much people are willing to pay for the shares because of what they think the future value will be and how much dividend they will receive. It's driven by what GW are releasing, by law, in their reports (and how people are interpreting that as health) and what they are paying for dividends.

There's a huge disconnect between that and the health of the customer base. Not saying comparisons can't be made, but any comparison needs to be weighed against overall market actions, what GW have written in their reports and what's happening with the dividend... things which aren't always directly reflective of the current health of their customer base.