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2015/02/27 04:50:27
Subject: Speaking of climate change, sea levels on the rise
Sea levels across the Northeast coast of the United States rose nearly 3.9 inches between 2009 and 2010, according to a new study from researchers at the University of Arizona and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The waters near Portland, Maine, saw an even greater rise -- 5 inches -- over the two-year period.
While scientists have been observing higher sea levels across the globe in recent decades, the study found a much more extreme rise than previous averages. Such an event is "unprecedented" in the history of the tide gauge record, according to the researchers, and represents a 1-in-850 year event.
"Unlike storm surge, this event caused persistent and widespread coastal flooding even without apparent weather processes," the study's authors wrote. "In terms of beach erosion, the impact of the 2009-2010 [sea level rise] event is almost as significant as some hurricane events."
The analysis relied on data from dozens of tide gauges along the eastern seaboard. The nearly 4-inch rise for the Northeast represents the average of 14 tide gauges located between New York and Canada. Tide gauges farther south in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast indicated a sea level rise far less extreme in 2009 and closer to average in some areas. The jump occurred most quickly between April 2009 and March 2010.
The study found that the increase in the Northeast was caused by a 30 percent slowdown in a major ocean current system known as the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and a fluctuation in atmospheric pressure at sea level. The Gulf Steam is one component of the AMOC, which moves warm water northward in the upper levels of the Atlantic.
A 2014 study of the AMOC over that period found the slowdown also contributed to severe winter conditions in northwestern Europe and the intensity of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, which was the third-most active on record.
The U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate wrote in its latest report that AMOC currents are "very likely" to weaken in the 21st century. Models project that unusual rises in sea level, like that observed in the study, will be bigger and more frequent along the Northeastern seaboard this century, study coauthor Jianjun Yin told The Huffington Post.
And events like the one observed in the study, combined with ongoing global sea level rise, "will pose an even higher coastal flooding risk," Yin told Mashable.
A 2012 study determined that sea levels between North Carolina and Boston are rising at a rate three to four times faster than the global average. Yet this only represents a rise of 2 to 3.7 millimeters per year since 1980, far less than the 100 millimeters observed in the Northeast between 2009 and 2010.
This week's study, published in Nature Communications, follows a new report from the New York City Panel on Climate Change that warns of significant sea level rise and coastal flooding threats for the city in coming decades. Sea levels in New York City have already risen more than a foot since 1900, and the trend is very likely to accelerate: If greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are not curtailed, the panel projects seas to rise by an additional 11 to 21 inches by the middle of the century, by 18 to 39 inches by the 2080s, and by as much as 6 feet by the end of the century.
2015/02/27 04:53:31
Subject: Speaking of climate change, sea levels on the rise
Sea levels across the Northeast coast of the United States rose nearly 3.9 inches between 2009 and 2010, according to a new study from researchers at the University of Arizona and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The waters near Portland, Maine, saw an even greater rise -- 5 inches -- over the two-year period.
While scientists have been observing higher sea levels across the globe in recent decades, the study found a much more extreme rise than previous averages. Such an event is "unprecedented" in the history of the tide gauge record, according to the researchers, and represents a 1-in-850 year event.
"Unlike storm surge, this event caused persistent and widespread coastal flooding even without apparent weather processes," the study's authors wrote. "In terms of beach erosion, the impact of the 2009-2010 [sea level rise] event is almost as significant as some hurricane events."
The analysis relied on data from dozens of tide gauges along the eastern seaboard. The nearly 4-inch rise for the Northeast represents the average of 14 tide gauges located between New York and Canada. Tide gauges farther south in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast indicated a sea level rise far less extreme in 2009 and closer to average in some areas. The jump occurred most quickly between April 2009 and March 2010.
The study found that the increase in the Northeast was caused by a 30 percent slowdown in a major ocean current system known as the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and a fluctuation in atmospheric pressure at sea level. The Gulf Steam is one component of the AMOC, which moves warm water northward in the upper levels of the Atlantic.
A 2014 study of the AMOC over that period found the slowdown also contributed to severe winter conditions in northwestern Europe and the intensity of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, which was the third-most active on record.
The U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate wrote in its latest report that AMOC currents are "very likely" to weaken in the 21st century. Models project that unusual rises in sea level, like that observed in the study, will be bigger and more frequent along the Northeastern seaboard this century, study coauthor Jianjun Yin told The Huffington Post.
And events like the one observed in the study, combined with ongoing global sea level rise, "will pose an even higher coastal flooding risk," Yin told Mashable.
A 2012 study determined that sea levels between North Carolina and Boston are rising at a rate three to four times faster than the global average. Yet this only represents a rise of 2 to 3.7 millimeters per year since 1980, far less than the 100 millimeters observed in the Northeast between 2009 and 2010.
This week's study, published in Nature Communications, follows a new report from the New York City Panel on Climate Change that warns of significant sea level rise and coastal flooding threats for the city in coming decades. Sea levels in New York City have already risen more than a foot since 1900, and the trend is very likely to accelerate: If greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are not curtailed, the panel projects seas to rise by an additional 11 to 21 inches by the middle of the century, by 18 to 39 inches by the 2080s, and by as much as 6 feet by the end of the century.
Someone should tell them:
Its called "The Tide".
2015/02/27 04:56:28
Subject: Re:Speaking of climate change, sea levels on the rise
Thought for the day: Hope is the first step on the road to disappointment.
30k Ultramarines: 2000 pts
Bolt Action Germans: ~1200 pts
AOS Stormcast: Just starting.
The Empire : ~60-70 models.
1500 pts
: My Salamanders painting blog 16 Infantry and 2 Vehicles done so far!
2015/02/27 05:06:32
Subject: Speaking of climate change, sea levels on the rise
"Sometimes the only victory possible is to keep your opponent from winning." - The Emperor, from The Outcast Dead.
"Tell your gods we are coming for them, and that their realms will burn as ours did." -Thostos Bladestorm
2015/02/27 08:31:05
Subject: Speaking of climate change, sea levels on the rise
Option 1 - act in good faith, assuming a scientific study has accounted for grade school level concepts like the tide, and therefore accept this finding as part of the large and increasing body of research in to climate patterns.
Option 2 - half read the article, dismiss it with the first thing you can think of that the study without reading if the study accounted for that in any way, and wander off, safe in the knowledge that you've managed to avoid learning anything for another day.
“We may observe that the government in a civilized country is much more expensive than in a barbarous one; and when we say that one government is more expensive than another, it is the same as if we said that that one country is farther advanced in improvement than another. To say that the government is expensive and the people not oppressed is to say that the people are rich.”
Adam Smith, who must have been some kind of leftie or something.
2015/02/27 08:33:43
Subject: Speaking of climate change, sea levels on the rise
So one instance where a researcher is a scumbag in a way that doesn't have anything to do with the research being performed, and one instance of a lot of stuff being taken out of context, as opposed to an instance of someone taking money from a party that has immense economical interests hinging on the research, essentially a textbook example of a conflict of interest?
The only ethics violation I'm seeing is the attempt to equate them.
For thirteen years I had a dog with fur the darkest black. For thirteen years he was my friend, oh how I want him back.
2015/02/27 11:55:23
Subject: Re:Speaking of climate change, sea levels on the rise
Here is a global sea level chart that runs through 2012. As it shows there was a significant drop in sea level changes following the 2010 that the story points to.
That story also points to a single region, and tries to make the case that the sky is falling. Which is a no-no, since the same type of people like to throw it in the oppositions faces when they point to regional effects that seem to run counter to the agenda.
This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2015/02/27 11:59:36
Full Frontal Nerdity
2015/02/27 12:49:00
Subject: Re:Speaking of climate change, sea levels on the rise
So one instance where a researcher is a scumbag in a way that doesn't have anything to do with the research being performed, and one instance of a lot of stuff being taken out of context, as opposed to an instance of someone taking money from a party that has immense economical interests hinging on the research, essentially a textbook example of a conflict of interest?
The only ethics violation I'm seeing is the attempt to equate them.
I would have said that attempting to minimize the violations would be a grievous ethics violation
2015/02/27 16:20:17
Subject: Re:Speaking of climate change, sea levels on the rise
So one instance where a researcher is a scumbag in a way that doesn't have anything to do with the research being performed, and one instance of a lot of stuff being taken out of context, as opposed to an instance of someone taking money from a party that has immense economical interests hinging on the research, essentially a textbook example of a conflict of interest?
The only ethics violation I'm seeing is the attempt to equate them.
I would have said that attempting to minimize the violations would be a grievous ethics violation
In one case it was a case of awful behaviour with 0 evidence that it had any sort of effect on the research of said person (making it an ad hominem), and in the other case your own link (admittedly Wikipedia, your own source though) point out that the people involved were cleared from the accusations of intellectual fraud by eight different committees, and yet you're using this as an example of ethics violations?
I stand corrected though, I see two instances of violation of scientific ethics. Your post and the attempt to miscredit legitimate scientists as being involved in some grand conspiracy for which there is no proof, despite repeated investigations.
For thirteen years I had a dog with fur the darkest black. For thirteen years he was my friend, oh how I want him back.
2015/02/27 23:51:40
Subject: Speaking of climate change, sea levels on the rise
AlmightyWalrus wrote: I stand corrected though, I see two instances of violation of scientific ethics. Your post and the attempt to miscredit legitimate scientists as being involved in some grand conspiracy for which there is no proof, despite repeated investigations.
I did not such thing. Someone decided to put a fact in issue (ethics violation) as a way to undermine the credibility of one party. For the sake of balance I showed that other parties did not have clean hands either. I made no comment on the scientific works of any of the parties involved. You are tilting at a strawman. So by your own standards it would appear you fall foul of a "violation of scientific ethics".
2015/02/28 00:21:55
Subject: Speaking of climate change, sea levels on the rise
AlmightyWalrus wrote: I stand corrected though, I see two instances of violation of scientific ethics. Your post and the attempt to miscredit legitimate scientists as being involved in some grand conspiracy for which there is no proof, despite repeated investigations.
I did not such thing. Someone decided to put a fact in issue (ethics violation) as a way to undermine the credibility of one party. For the sake of balance I showed that other parties did not have clean hands either. I made no comment on the scientific works of any of the parties involved. You are tilting at a strawman. So by your own standards it would appear you fall foul of a "violation of scientific ethics".
One is a conflict of interest, which then became an ethics violation when the person failed to disclose the fact that the conflict existed in violation of the publishing standards for the magazines that he submitted his research to. The other is a gakky person being gakky, which is not a conflict of interest regarding the research being conducted.
It's like having someone say that is is okay for a cop to be bribed to not arrest someone because another cop cheated on his wife. Both are gakky things to do, but only one directly impacts the work actually performed.
2015/02/28 00:45:16
Subject: Speaking of climate change, sea levels on the rise
AlmightyWalrus wrote: I stand corrected though, I see two instances of violation of scientific ethics. Your post and the attempt to miscredit legitimate scientists as being involved in some grand conspiracy for which there is no proof, despite repeated investigations.
I did not such thing. Someone decided to put a fact in issue (ethics violation) as a way to undermine the credibility of one party. For the sake of balance I showed that other parties did not have clean hands either. I made no comment on the scientific works of any of the parties involved. You are tilting at a strawman. So by your own standards it would appear you fall foul of a "violation of scientific ethics".
One is a conflict of interest, which then became an ethics violation when the person failed to disclose the fact that the conflict existed in violation of the publishing standards for the magazines that he submitted his research to. The other is a gakky person being gakky, which is not a conflict of interest regarding the research being conducted.
It's like having someone say that is is okay for a cop to be bribed to not arrest someone because another cop cheated on his wife. Both are gakky things to do, but only one directly impacts the work actually performed.
That is an awesome analogy.
2015/02/28 01:42:55
Subject: Re:Speaking of climate change, sea levels on the rise
Manchu - "But so what? The Bible also says the flood destroyed the world. You only need an allegorical boat to tackle an allegorical flood."
Shespits "Anything i see with YOLO has half naked eleventeen year olds Girls. And of course booze and drugs and more half naked elventeen yearolds Girls. O how i wish to YOLO again!"
Rubiksnoob "Next you'll say driving a stick with a Scandinavian supermodel on your lap while ripping a bong impairs your driving. And you know what, I'M NOT GOING TO STOP, YOU FILTHY COMMUNIST"
2015/02/28 01:45:12
Subject: Re:Speaking of climate change, sea levels on the rise
Waiting for my shill money from Spiral Arm Studios
jreilly89 wrote: Right. Climate change has happened before, obviously this one is totally natural and not at all influenced by the Industrial Revolution.
Side note, fracking is super good for the environment.
Influenced yes. Largely responsible for in any large quantity, unknown.
We know too little to say anything beyond ''man has accelerated the natural climate cycle by an unknown amount''
We haven't been monitoring anything long enough to make any accurate claims. A century of accurate data and then a bunch of massive generalizations beyond that is not close to enough data. We'd need thousands and thousands and thousands of years of data to get a feel for the smaller natural cycles.
Self-proclaimed evil Cat-person. Dues Ex Felines
Cato Sicarius, after force feeding Captain Ventris a copy of the Codex Astartes for having the audacity to play Deathwatch, chokes to death on his own D-baggery after finding Calgar assembling his new Eldar army.
jreilly89 wrote: Right. Climate change has happened before, obviously this one is totally natural and not at all influenced by the Industrial Revolution.
Side note, fracking is super good for the environment.
Influenced yes. Largely responsible for in any large quantity, unknown.
We know too little to say anything beyond ''man has accelerated the natural climate cycle by an unknown amount''
We haven't been monitoring anything long enough to make any accurate claims. A century of accurate data and then a bunch of massive generalizations beyond that is not close to enough data. We'd need thousands and thousands and thousands of years of data to get a feel for the smaller natural cycles.
We can, though, make fairly accurate estimates on CO2 levels etc. by looking at ice cores and we can look pretty far back - it is possible to look back 800,000 years with some cores in Antarctica. Over the past 1000 years, this is what the global CO2 and methane levels have looked like:
(taken from http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/bas_research/science_briefings/icecorebriefing.php)
So stable for about 800 years, then a sudden increase over the last 200 years. I wonder what could have caused this?
2015/02/28 07:41:14
Subject: Speaking of climate change, sea levels on the rise
AlmightyWalrus wrote: I stand corrected though, I see two instances of violation of scientific ethics. Your post and the attempt to miscredit legitimate scientists as being involved in some grand conspiracy for which there is no proof, despite repeated investigations.
I did not such thing. Someone decided to put a fact in issue (ethics violation) as a way to undermine the credibility of one party. For the sake of balance I showed that other parties did not have clean hands either. I made no comment on the scientific works of any of the parties involved. You are tilting at a strawman. So by your own standards it would appear you fall foul of a "violation of scientific ethics".
But they did have their hands clean from a scientific point of view. Sexual assault or not, the science remains unaffected by that event, and trying to use a blatantly invented "controversy" to prove wrongdoing when there was none is insane.
Further, you'll note I didn't say you were involved in the smear campaign (although you're certainly perpetuating it), so your claim of me using a strawman is itself a strawman (*cue Inception music*).
For thirteen years I had a dog with fur the darkest black. For thirteen years he was my friend, oh how I want him back.
2015/02/28 08:59:06
Subject: Speaking of climate change, sea levels on the rise
The reasons used to say climate change is not caused by humans or fake in some way are sounding more and more like the Saudi clerics proof the world is flat.
I know more than the vast majority of scientists working in the field because tides, ice ages, lack of understanding of the word "trend"!
From Wikipidia:
"No scientific body of national or international standing maintains a formal opinion dissenting from any of these main points. The last national or international scientific body to drop dissent was the American Association of Petroleum Geologists,[10] which in 2007[11] updated its statement to its current non-committal position."
Yet people with no scintific background claim to know better.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/02/28 09:06:14
insaniak wrote: Sometimes, Exterminatus is the only option.
And sometimes, it's just a case of too much scotch combined with too many buttons...
2015/03/01 02:47:36
Subject: Re:Speaking of climate change, sea levels on the rise
djones520 wrote: Here is a global sea level chart that runs through 2012. As it shows there was a significant drop in sea level changes following the 2010 that the story points to.
That story also points to a single region, and tries to make the case that the sky is falling. Which is a no-no, since the same type of people like to throw it in the oppositions faces when they point to regional effects that seem to run counter to the agenda.
Y'realize that the drop you are referring to is:
A) More than an order of magnitude smaller than the rise mentioned in the OP.
B) Similar to other fluctuations on the chart.
C) Gone by the last data point.
Q: What do you call a Dinosaur Handpuppet?
A: A Maniraptor
2015/03/01 12:48:33
Subject: Re:Speaking of climate change, sea levels on the rise
This is my favorite video ever about the US government discussing this. There's also a transcript if you normally don't like watching vids (ignore the super stupid pejorative url name... it just happened to be the first link i found that had both the video AND the transcript... )
Haight wrote: This is my favorite video ever about the US government discussing this. There's also a transcript if you normally don't like watching vids (ignore the super stupid pejorative url name... it just happened to be the first link i found that had both the video AND the transcript... )
He's not my state senator (next one over), but man, I love me some Sheldon Whitehouse.
That was some epic pwnage.
The thing I find really odd, we can clearly see the sea levels are rising. If you want to claim it's not mans fault based on no evidence, fine. But that's not going to save florida, or the other coastal red states. People have done lots of images showing what the sea level will look like 5 feet higher for the low lying cities and national monuments. Google some, see what your city will look like. Take a good look at miami, that city is doomed, most of the states around the golf and up the coast are going to start getting reclaimed by the seas. I wonder if when they deniers have their house flood if they'll admit climate change is really happening.
Yep, Florida will have problems, as will other coastal cities.
Yet again, when we look at how sea levels have gone up and down over time, this should not shock anyone. Florida has had a lot more land area, and a lot less depending on how far back you want to go:
The folks in the interglacial period must have been total ass hats, inducing so much climate change that they lost a lot of land mass.
Of course, Florida is a great example, because the slope of the land is slight enough that small sea level changes make a big difference.
As the above shows, for North America, not all of the coastal changes are/will be as drastic. But as climate changes/sea levels change, coastal areas are where you will see the differences and our love of building up coastal areas is gonna cost us.
Every time a terrorist dies a Paratrooper gets his wings.
The Empire 
1500 pts
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