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 awbbie wrote:
Personally? I've found they're so fragile and don't have enough punch. I kill lots of units but I've lost so many vehicles and people that I get dinged on kill points.

Kill Points for my DE are basically an auto-lose unless I can table my opponent. I always have more kill points than them, and mine are a lot more fragile.

Incidentally, why is this game still using fething Kill Points?

HoundsofDemos wrote:
For me survivability is important because flyers must come in from reserves and therefore are vulnerable to being intercepted. If a flyer doesn't have a good change of surviving the first turn then it's of questionable use.

A "bit" sturdier doesnt make you less likely to jink in the case of 11 v 10. And if you dont you'll likely end up shaken anyways. So It isnt untrue that its a "bit" more survivable. thats just not really that impactful when ultimately they both face the same problem with interceptors. Intercepting isnt truly an argument in and of itself unless you are simply never willing to jink. then yeah, like I say, you win. But you cannot do much about the fact that they have interceptor. So... I mean... its not truly a point of comparison and even if it was it doesnt matter because Dark eldar arent taking Doom Scythes anyways. So Why are we talking about how RELATIVELY good it is? Which of the two wants to see the other in the sky more? Lol. I REALLY dont think the Doom Scythe wants to square off with the Dark Eldar lances.

Why not? 4 TL shots at S7 (with a chance to generate more shots) is better than just two shots at S8.

Would come down to who fires first but atleast the DS can't be taken down by bolter fire.

suuuure... if bolters are making the attempt. But youre not jinking against that.


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Slayer-Fan123 wrote:
Why not? 4 TL shots at S7 (with a chance to generate more shots) is better than just two shots at S8.

um..STR 9 you mean?

It was a typo. I still stand by the statement. An average of 5 hits at S7 does a lot more than 1.3 S9 shots

Let me know how those decimals work out for you.

In the end its not there to take down planes. But it will. and when it aims, you'll jink. so.

Well, 4 shots at TL is about 3.5 hits. with more possibly being generated (I want to say the average is 14/3).
The 2 str 9 shots will cause 1.33 hits.

The necron flyer will cause a little over 28/9 HP damage before jinking if firing at the DE flyer. The DE flyer will cause ~1.1 HP damage to the Necron flyer before jinking.

Someone may want to double check my math. I used a program for the TL Tesla shots at str 7 and am going off memory for both so I could be wrong. If I'm right, the Necron flyer clearly wins.


After that it depends on what we are shooting. On anything T5 or lower, the necron flyer is pretty good turn after turn, since it causes about 4 Str 7 hits a turn with transport abilities. It can easily put 3.3/4 wounds on most T5 or lower enemies. (For a comparsion, 10 marines with bolters put out less wounds at full range, and slightly more at rapid fire range without special weapons)

On anything T8+, the other tank is arguably better (although still only going to cause 1 wound/HP a turn). The better the save the better the DE flyer gets.

It's probably meta dependent, but it does seem that the necron flyer is better and the DE flyer is only good for the bomb.

It kind of sucks too, because the fluff of the Void Raven is pretty cool. I had for a little while considered having one in my DE allied detachment, but seeing this I'm not sure now.

Well I don't sell Voidraven bombers so use 'em or don't. Stating they suck is hyperbole though. They really don't. I like not missing. I like not missing at STR 9 AP 2 a lot. If you think it's a waste, by all means don't use it then.

Its not really hyperbole, unless you are referring to an older post. It's just how they perform on average against a few different targets.

2 shots isn't very good. The max you can do is 2 wounds after all, while the necron flyer seems to average above that. The Ap 2 is nice against a lot of targets, but the targets its good against probably don't worry about 2 shots very much. We saw how many meltas it took to take down a wraith knight, and it was frightening. These are in a similar, though better, position.

It's not strictly worse overall though. Against certain targets it is better. How common those targets are in your area, and how critical their destruction is, will probably dictate if you bring one at all. DE are lacking options, while Necrons are not, so that's certainly a point in their favor.

The bomb is probably not that great if your opponent spreads out. It could stop SM from teleporting all the time however, which is quite useful.

Hard to say how bad it is without play testing.

 Jancoran wrote:
Let me know how those decimals work out for you.

In the end its not there to take down planes. But it will. and when it aims, you'll jink. so.

AKA I'm going to ignore the math you gave because decimals.

Akiasura wrote:


It's not strictly worse overall though. Against certain targets it is better. .

Yup.


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Slayer-Fan123 wrote:

 Jancoran wrote:
Let me know how those decimals work out for you.

In the end its not there to take down planes. But it will. and when it aims, you'll jink. so.

AKA I'm going to ignore the math you gave because decimals.

There are no decimals in the actualized math. Because no die has decimals. So look at it another way, which is equally true: The Lances which are STR 9 AP 2 hit more often than they don't. In fact Each lance does, separate from each other!

If someone aimed TWO weapons at me and both could kill me... and they both hit more often than they dont... Should i jink? Well given that, i think we can agree that they probably should.

And then, looking at it from the victims angle, the truth is, the Lances will each penetrate the hull more often than they don't when they hit. Knowing that, does that increase or decrease your willingness to Jink?

The Decimals only give you the probabilities, not the actual number of results. So over infinite games your not wrong. In the moment, you're not playing infinite games. So you have to make a decision for this game and knowing what you know... Those decimals will be of little comfort.

So take what I said literally. Decimals dont actually happen in games of 40K. there is absolute certain hits and absolute certain misses. Nothing inbetween exists in the game.

the reason i am willing to take risks when i play is the knowledge that things that don't typically happen, do. Things that are likely to happen dont. And a combination of those can make a daring risk pay off. You never even put yourself in a position to benefit from such things if you dont take risks.

The good a Voidraven Bomber can do is significant. in reality. I seek to gain that benefit. when it works, My opponent is very unhappy. And with that capability, I can now go in confidence as i plan my strategies knowing that of all the things i Can't do, killing 2+ armor isn't one of them. Eliminating the things I can't really do is important.

So i vew the game through a little different lens. Probabiliy is important. I am absolutely positively not saying otherwise. But even if there is a certain probability I wont ever get to fire my sleek Bomber, not even having one ensures I cant. Do you understand what I am trying to convey?

Against what? Av14?

They're both inflicting less than one HP stripped per turn, and that's just without the Death Ray or the bomb.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Also, you not accepting decimals means you don't understand the fundamentals of probability.

Slayer-Fan123 wrote:
Against what? Av14?

They're both inflicting less than one HP stripped per turn, and that's just without the Death Ray or the bomb.

Im unaware of flyers with AV 14. Also: its a lance. So its only AV 12 against a Lance. Did you forget that along with the STR of the weapon? Or was that a "typo" as well? And the Bomber is clearly not designed for anti- ground armor operations unless it is forced by a lack of options.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Slayer-Fan123 wrote:

Also, you not accepting decimals means you don't understand the fundamentals of probability.

Misquoting me? Again? I didn't say I didn't "accept" them. I told you they dont exist in actual games.

 jreilly89 wrote:

 Frozocrone wrote:
Ooh yeah totally forgot about Daemons. I don't have them in my meta so i tend to forget it a lot.

That needs to go too.

Agreed. Sometimes it's rather cool (free Daemons and blowing up enemy Psykers on 3d6) but most of the time it does nothing or ends up hurting me. Um, what?

I would even take a modified table, something where it's only a d6, with 1 being bad and 6 being free Daemons. That, or keep the existing table, but make 2-3 bad, 4-8 neutral, and everything else good to awesome.

1-6.
1 does nothing.
2 Slaanesh, 3 Nurgle, 4 Tzeentch, 5 Khorne
6 you choose.

I should NOT have the possibility of wiping out 600pts of my army in my own shooting phase with absolutely NOTHING I can do to stop it (short of taking Fateweaver), like what happened at a tournament last weekend.

 Jancoran wrote:


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Slayer-Fan123 wrote:

 Jancoran wrote:
Let me know how those decimals work out for you.

In the end its not there to take down planes. But it will. and when it aims, you'll jink. so.

AKA I'm going to ignore the math you gave because decimals.

There are no decimals in the actualized math. Because no die has decimals.

Well, yes. What 1.3 hits means is that you are likely to score 1 hit, but most likely won't score 2, though the odds of scoring 2 aren't non existent. I think we can all agree that is what our gut feeling is when we see 2 shots at BS 4 as well.
We could do a more detailed analysis of the numbers (run chance of 0, 1, and 2 hits separately along with deviations) but that seems complicated for what is a game.

 Jancoran wrote:

So look at it another way, which is equally true: The Lances which are STR 9 AP 2 hit more often than they don't. In fact Each lance does, separate from each other!

We could say the same about every lascannon outside of IG though. Lascannons are still considered overpriced because 1 bad roll effects them so much, since they tend to get fewer shots.
Or take it this way;
If I roll a 1 with the necron flyer, I can re-roll it and/or get 3 other shots.
If I roll a 1 with the DE flyer, half my firepower is gone if I've already dropped the bomb.

The max amount of hits I can score with the necron flyer is absurdly high (Tesla).
The max amount of hits I can score with the DE flyer is 2.

 Jancoran wrote:

If someone aimed TWO weapons at me and both could kill me... and they both hit more often than they dont... Should i jink? Well given that, i think we can agree that they probably should.

No, it won't kill me unless he rolls very lucky on his damage table, and I can kill him pretty reliably if I don't jink.
Then again, with TL and Tesla, I might jink anyway. I wonder if the necron flyer does more damage while jinking than the DE flyer does normally if pitted against each other? Probably pretty close since you'll get more 6's.
That's another thing to take into consideration I suppose. The DE flyer is crippled if it jinks, and can't do anything much in the following round. The Necron flyer can still do some work if it jinks.

 Jancoran wrote:

And then, looking at it from the victims angle, the truth is, the Lances will each penetrate the hull more often than they don't when they hit. Knowing that, does that increase or decrease your willingness to Jink?

I already took that into account. Statistically, you shouldn't jink since the DE flyer has no chance to kill you by hp, and needs the damage table to work, which isn't likely. In this match up, I probably would jink just to be safe, but the necron flyer wouldn't suffer so much from Jink and could still fight back pretty well. Not great (I actually think it ends up being about the same as the DE flyer at that point though I'm not sure) but still not bad.

 Jancoran wrote:

The Decimals only give you the probabilities, not the actual number of results. So over infinite games your not wrong. In the moment, you're not playing infinite games. So you have to make a decision for this game and knowing what you know... Those decimals will be of little comfort.

But the same argument works both ways. You could roll a 1 to hit, and half your fire power is gone. If the necron player rolls a 1, he just re-rolls. His dice could also explode with a lot of 6's showing up, causing him to way over perform.
All the averages tells us is that, if all possible outcomes of the dice were lined up, the sycthe will win most dog fights against the DE flyer simply through volume of fire. It's not like this is unique. Most of the better units in the game are great because of volume of fire after all.

 Jancoran wrote:

So take what I said literally. Decimals dont actually happen in games of 40K. there is absolute certain hits and absolute certain misses. Nothing inbetween exists in the game.

the reason i am willing to take risks when i play is the knowledge that things that don't typically happen, do. Things that are likely to happen dont. And a combination of those can make a daring risk pay off. You never even put yourself in a position to benefit from such things if you dont take risks.

We all have to take risks. The best generals try to mitigate risk as much as possible, in any of the dice based games. Having an idea of what those risks are helps make those decisions.
It's why divination has been such a good discipline. You are always going to get the best power (the re-roll to hit), and re-rolling to hit is really good.

Then again, I play the most cowardly eCaine you've ever seen, so what do I know?

 Jancoran wrote:

The good a Voidraven Bomber can do is significant. in reality. I seek to gain that benefit. when it works, My opponent is very unhappy. And with that capability, I can now go in confidence as i plan my strategies knowing that of all the things i Can't do, killing 2+ armor isn't one of them. Eliminating the things I can't really do is important.

We can figure out the max damage it can do, which is 2 wounds a turn plus the bomb once per game. So, 12 hits at Str 9 Ap 2 plus the bomb, and that is assuming crazy hot dice. Over the course of the entire game, assuming it doesn't die.
If that is good or not is entirely dependent on the meta. I would say I certainly don't think it's great against many of the better lists. With the bomb it's hard to catch more than 4-5 guys in the blast, you have to hope those are quality targets to make the points back since the lances aren't great against most MC's/GMCs, and heavy tanks aren't common right now.

 Jancoran wrote:

So i vew the game through a little different lens. Probabiliy is important. I am absolutely positively not saying otherwise. But even if there is a certain probability I wont ever get to fire my sleek Bomber, not even having one ensures I cant. Do you understand what I am trying to convey?

Not really?
If I don't take the bomber, I might be able to take other options that perform better. This is why we do a statistical analysis.



I don't see why we are comparing it to the necron flyer, unless someone is trying to say it's not great. The DE codex itself isn't great, so I don't see why that matters. You certainly don't see sycthes spammed in competitive necron lists anymore, and if its better than the bomber I suppose that says something, but not anything useful. Though it is strangely on the original topic

The bomber should probably be compared to other units within the DE codex that perform similar roles at a similar point cost if we are going to talk about how useful it is within the DE lineup.

Akiasura wrote:


No, it won't kill me unless... .

No one said it would. I said it could. And I'm not wrong. and all the stats in the world wont override your judgement when your own life is in danger. So... Do you jink or not? If you wish to play statistical games, don't jink and we will both happily take our chances. Good luck champ. =)

I brought it up because they're the same price, and have a formation so you could basically add them to any army.

Akiasura wrote:


But the same argument works both ways. .

Yes...and right now Im shooting you. So... Are you going to say "well he should have only gotten..." after I blow you out of the sky, knowing I hit more oftne than i dont and i will kill you or shake/stu you more often than i won't?

You'll jink.

There is no choice for me to make. Im already firing at this point.

You really don't get how statistics work is all I'm getting from your more recent posts.

Akiasura wrote:

 Jancoran wrote:

So i vew the game through a little different lens. Probabiliy is important. I am absolutely positively not saying otherwise. But even if there is a certain probability I wont ever get to fire my sleek Bomber, not even having one ensures I cant. Do you understand what I am trying to convey?

Not really?
If I don't take the bomber, I might be able to take other options that perform better. This is why we do a statistical analysis.

The statistical analysis supports my statement. You either have 100% chance of not hitting the clumped {fill in the blanks} after a charge by not taking the Bomber or you will have a certain percentile that is higher than 0% if you take the bomber. No other weapon provides this advantage so you must decide if you WANT that advantage, given nothing else in the list will do the same thing and certainly not with the same accuracy.

Once you've made THAt choice, the other statistics matter. So the question isnt one of performance. Its one of opportunity cost as well. And you DO pay an opportunity cost by not having such a weapon, by virtue of the fact that there is no OTHER such weapon to take.




Automatically Appended Next Post:

Slayer-Fan123 wrote:
You really don't get how statistics work is all I'm getting from your more recent posts.

I took statistics. Not only that, I am in an industry that does a lot of math. So you're barking up the wrong tree. The application of statistics is a lot more important than the statistic itself.

We have a saying in our industry: Figures don't lie... but liars can figure.

People who want something to be true can create figures to support it theoretically. What they cannot do is actualize those numbers because, put simply, there aren't infinite games within the game you're playing RIGHT NOW and so all you can due is gauge the likelihood and as you know, the deviation from the average can actually be quite high. Just in this game alone the dEviation comes in part from the fact that there are TRULY no decimals. So even though the averages would totally tell us whether a Crisi suit with X weapon vs. Y weapon against an exactly determined target would be more or less efficient, we'd have to know ALL that. And even then our numbers would further deviate just on the strength of how frequently we can force that actual situation to happen. The more times we can, the more true our statements with numbers, but the enemy has a lot ot say about that!.

Averages inform us when their are two comparable options, infinite numbers of times. If there isn't, then we cannot truly compare them. So stats are useful. You'll never hear me say otherwise, not ever. Least of all me. I'm a numbers guy. But you really need to be careful in how you apply them. After all: Figures don't lie... but liars can figure.

A Raptor and a VoideRaven Bomber are so far apart that while we could easily determine the kills/point ratio given the data of an exactly defined target, we know the numbers mean nothing. Similarly, we know that the numbrs for something that exists vs. Something that doesnt are equally meaningless. yet we postulate all the time how much "better" we'd be if X existed. Would we?

And the worst thing about numbers is opportunity cost. Consider opportunity cost as real thing.

The best part about this is that you guys are still going at it.

Is that the best part? is it really?

 Jancoran wrote:

Akiasura wrote:


But the same argument works both ways. .

Yes...and right now Im shooting you. So... Are you going to say "well he should have only gotten..." after I blow you out of the sky, knowing I hit more oftne than i dont and i will kill you or shake/stu you more often than i won't?

You'll jink.

There is no choice for me to make. Im already firing at this point.

Short of going through the long process of coming up with a PMF for every roll you make in the game, calculating the 'expected' result as decimals is pretty helpful to most players during the course of the game.
The 'Hit you more often than I don't', and then 'wound you more often that I don't' style of thinking leads to situations where you would 'expect' 10 bolter shots to kill 10 guardsmen. Which we all know won't happen.
If you have a basic understanding of the math, you'll look at that '1.3' number and your 2 shots and think 'ok, that means I have a chance to do nothing, a large chance to do 1 HP, and a small chance to do 2'.

If I think you're only going to do 1 HP on average then i won't jink, and if you roll hot and still kill me than I'll know I made the best decision from the information available at the time. (otoh in this situation, 1 HP most likely = 1 shaken/stunned so I'd jink anyway).

Good math skills are a great boon to decision making in the game. Not just knowing how to calculate expected results (which everyone should be able to do) but how to interpret and apply those results in game.

Trasvi wrote:

 Jancoran wrote:

Akiasura wrote:


But the same argument works both ways. .

Yes...and right now Im shooting you. So... Are you going to say "well he should have only gotten..." after I blow you out of the sky, knowing I hit more oftne than i dont and i will kill you or shake/stu you more often than i won't?

You'll jink.

There is no choice for me to make. Im already firing at this point.

Short of going through the long process of coming up with a PMF for every roll you make in the game, calculating the 'expected' result as decimals is pretty helpful to most players during the course of the game.
The 'Hit you more often than I don't', and then 'wound you more often that I don't' style of thinking leads to situations where you would 'expect' 10 bolter shots to kill 10 guardsmen. Which we all know won't happen..

Useful. Agreed.

And the style of thinking isn't a style. its the reality of the situation. You and I cannot change that it is true that I hit more than I don't, nor that it might not happen this time! So "thinking that way" isn't even necessary. It matters to the target more than the guy shooting because the shooter has already made his decision, already needs to make the shot, and it will be what it will be.

Before the game started, you conceptualized 3x6 Scatterbike units and what you'd do about it. You conceptualized a Wraith Knight and what you'd do about it. Wraithguard? conceptualized an answer.

Now you want your answer to be inexpensive as possible... but let's say that the answers led you to run out of Elites (in our example the "best" answer, whatever it may have beem) and your best answer to the new problem X happens to be an elite? Well you cant very well ignore the other needs. So now you need another answer: Perhaps a Heavy Support unit. So even though the Bomber may look unusual in the list, competing priorities intrude such that no amount of comparison will reduce the opportunity cost of NOT taking the second best answer.

So the second best answer can sometimes be the best answer so as not to give up your best answer elsewhere. And so on. Opportunity costs. You will eventually see units in a list that seem sub optimal and yet are vital. the weakest units can end up bing the ones you count on for victory (as in the case of one army I used in my last tournaments). Sometimes they win for you without firing a shot or being good in any way. not having them would have cost me the game. Should I then abandon such units? No. Of course not because the opportuniy cost of NOT taking those lower cost units might hace cost me a unit I really needed elsewhere.

Big wheel. fun to think about.

 Jancoran wrote:

Akiasura wrote:


No, it won't kill me unless... .

No one said it would. I said it could. And I'm not wrong. and all the stats in the world wont override your judgement when your own life is in danger. So... Do you jink or not? If you wish to play statistical games, don't jink and we will both happily take our chances. Good luck champ. =)

Hm, with only 2 shots I'd probably take my chances unless the transport was carrying something. It's not very expensive so losing it isn't a big deal, and if you don't kill me I'll most likely kill you and stop the bomb from hurting my crons.

Odds are pretty good I'd survive and kill you. Not sure what your point was here I'm afraid.

Also it's liars.

I'm afraid you missed the point with opportunity costs, but we can just agree not to discuss it since it's a rather complicated idea to explain.

Akiasura wrote:

 Jancoran wrote:

Akiasura wrote:


No, it won't kill me unless... .

No one said it would. I said it could. And I'm not wrong. and all the stats in the world wont override your judgement when your own life is in danger. So... Do you jink or not? If you wish to play statistical games, don't jink and we will both happily take our chances. Good luck champ. =)

Hm, with only 2 shots I'd probably take my chances
.

Fair enuf. And I'd let you take your chances.

It costs me nothing.

I find it funny how you two are still fighting over this stuff. It's like the CSM thread all over again.

 Jancoran wrote:

Akiasura wrote:

 Jancoran wrote:

Akiasura wrote:


No, it won't kill me unless... .

No one said it would. I said it could. And I'm not wrong. and all the stats in the world wont override your judgement when your own life is in danger. So... Do you jink or not? If you wish to play statistical games, don't jink and we will both happily take our chances. Good luck champ. =)

Hm, with only 2 shots I'd probably take my chances
.

Fair enuf. And I'd let you take your chances.

It costs me nothing.

Sure it does.
It cost you 2 shots you could have applied elsewhere