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GW could possibly take advantage of this and sell minis "electronically" to us. They even have the perfect gimmick if they put out their own printers called "STC Manufactorums" and label their designs as "STCs".

However GW was never quick to embrace new trends (even the digital thing came way later than it should have) and even when they do, they do it in the worst way possible, so I doubt this will ever cross their minds.

 MechaEmperor7000 wrote:
GW could possibly take advantage of this and sell minis "electronically" to us. They even have the perfect gimmick if they put out their own printers called "STC Manufactorums" and label their designs as "STCs".

However GW was never quick to embrace new trends (even the digital thing came way later than it should have) and even when they do, they do it in the worst way possible, so I doubt this will ever cross their minds.

I think while they are behind the times, they have in the last year or so shown a willingness to adapt new things that was completely absent before. Hopefully this is a positive thing for the company.

 Scott-S6 wrote:
There is also an assumption that 3D printers will gradually get better. This simply isn't the case. All of the current methods are already at the limits of their resolutions. New materials or methods are needed (and the current methods & materials have been around long enough for the patents to expire - you can imagine that there was huge incentive to find new, better methods before that happened and they did not appear).

Well, I think the assumption that 3D printers will get better is a safe one -- it's just a question of how long it takes, because there is certainly demand for better 3D printing. I am totally with you in that I think that new, better methods are necessary before 3D printing can make nice miniatures. But we're a pretty innovative bunch, and sooner or later, someone will figure out a way to make this a reality.

On the other hand, in the context of our hobby and the game, it's probably not worthwhile to hold our collective breaths.

 Talys wrote:

 Scott-S6 wrote:
There is also an assumption that 3D printers will gradually get better. This simply isn't the case. All of the current methods are already at the limits of their resolutions. New materials or methods are needed (and the current methods & materials have been around long enough for the patents to expire - you can imagine that there was huge incentive to find new, better methods before that happened and they did not appear).

Well, I think the assumption that 3D printers will get better is a safe one -- it's just a question of how long it takes, because there is certainly demand for better 3D printing. I am totally with you in that I think that new, better methods are necessary before 3D printing can make nice miniatures. But we're a pretty innovative bunch, and sooner or later, someone will figure out a way to make this a reality.

On the other hand, in the context of our hobby and the game, it's probably not worthwhile to hold our collective breaths.

Exactly. We've got methods that are close. A new method or material that allows significant improvement (if it doesn't then why bother) is going to be a big jump in detail or speed. But (and it's a big but) who knows when that'll happen?

People think that everything works like electronics - the potential is there but they just need to incrementally improve manufacturing techniques. Here we're waiting on someone inventing a new method or material. Moore's law does not apply to 3D printing...

 Scott-S6 wrote:
Moore's law does not apply to 3D printing...

Hahahaha

If it did, we'd have matter replicators by now

 Scott-S6 wrote:
My point remains - none of the current 3D printing methods are suitable for home printing of minis. These are not going to gradually improve - they will be unchanged until new methods or materials become available. This makes predicting timelines for availability impossible.

This statement illustrates that you did not bother looking at the TED talks I kindly linked to you. The point was that a new method was discovered and demonstrated.

 labmouse42 wrote:

 Scott-S6 wrote:
My point remains - none of the current 3D printing methods are suitable for home printing of minis. These are not going to gradually improve - they will be unchanged until new methods or materials become available. This makes predicting timelines for availability impossible.

This statement illustrates that you did not bother looking at the TED talks I kindly linked to you. The point was that a new method was discovered and demonstrated.

A new method that is not actually available yet, and that video is almost a year old already. We have no idea when Carbon3D will actually launch (currently in a beta program), or whether or not it will actually deliver on all or even most of its promises. I run a variety of professional grade 3D printers of various technologies. One of those technologies is currently capable of making excellent quality miniatures, but even when buying used machines they cost many thousands of dollars. In short, we're not there yet and it's a waste of time speculating when we will get there.

3D printers are terrible for models, great for terrain. It's kind of nice to click print, and when I wake up there's a nice, super detailed piece of ruin sitting on my print bed.

I'll also put even money on 3D printers being a household item before we get a new Sisters codex.

 labmouse42 wrote:

 Scott-S6 wrote:
My point remains - none of the current 3D printing methods are suitable for home printing of minis. These are not going to gradually improve - they will be unchanged until new methods or materials become available. This makes predicting timelines for availability impossible.

This statement illustrates that you did not bother looking at the TED talks I kindly linked to you. The point was that a new method was discovered and demonstrated.

Lots of people have promised the next big thing in 3d printing and then failed to deliver. Usually they fail to find a method for economical mass production of the materials.

Until they're selling it I'm not even slightly interested - I've seen too many of these either fail to appear or to end so ridiculously expensive that they've only survived a year or two.

In the case of Carbon3D they need a suitable source for the materials and for this oxygen permeable screen.

3D printers are being used by companies now, making excellent prototypes and demo pieces.
But, those 3D printers are the equivalent of 2D laser, which we have the option to buy inkjets.

How long was it between inkjet paper printers being available for home use, and laser printers coming down to a reasonable price? We were using dot-matrix when business had laser, and look at the paper-printer market these days.

 Orblivion wrote:
In short, we're not there yet and it's a waste of time speculating when we will get there.

As a professional, what are your thoughts about how CarbonEd will impact the modeling industry when it does become available.
Given the detail of the model shown in the video below, making high resolution models seems completely feasible.

Finally! A 3d printer thread again! I had lost hope after all this time without one.
BINGO!


As to 3d printers, I don't think it will have a great impact. After all, it has been possible to (illegally) print your own MtG cards for years already, but almost no one makes use of it. People continue to buy official stuff even if they could make their own copies.

 labmouse42 wrote:

 Orblivion wrote:
In short, we're not there yet and it's a waste of time speculating when we will get there.

As a professional, what are your thoughts about how CarbonEd will impact the modeling industry when it does become available.
Given the detail of the model shown in the video below, making high resolution models seems completely feasible.

You can't really see the piece very well in that video. From what we could see the detail didn't appear to be anything special (which isn't a negative SLA is already plenty detailed).

You can print this with a $3K printer that's available to buy right now (but a design like this hides the grain of the layers):
http://www.3ders.org/images/formlabs-3d-printer-Eiffel-Tower.jpg

This video gives you a better look at some samples from carbon3D. The notable thing is how smooth the pieces are - you can really see this on the grey piece at the 30second mark. (and the ability to print a flexible material which definitely has some interesting applications) If they can cost-effectively mass-produce the machine and materials then it's got a lot of potential but that's a big "if".

 labmouse42 wrote:

 Orblivion wrote:
In short, we're not there yet and it's a waste of time speculating when we will get there.

As a professional, what are your thoughts about how CarbonEd will impact the modeling industry when it does become available.
Given the detail of the model shown in the video below, making high resolution models seems completely feasible.

Carbon3D is a mixed bag right now IMO. The high quality machines I run now have messy cleanup processes, and the Carbon3D looks to be no different. With liquid resin still clinging to the model it will require a solvent bath, manual removal or both just as my current machines. The waste of the cleanup process is often regulated hazardous waste as well. This issue will limit the Carbon3D's appeal to the home user.

The other issue may be only a temporary issue, but it is the tray size. The Carbon3D can make an individual part much quicker than anything I've seen or run yet, but the machines I run can handle hundreds of small parts in a single build. The Carbon3D currently has what we like to call the "hobbyist" build size, and would actually end up being slower than my current printers because of the much higher throughput they can handle. I don't know enough about what they are planning, but if the process they are using with the oxygen permeable window limits the size of the resin vat/build tray then they might be dead in the water for the time being. This issue will limit the Carbon3D's appeal to the professional user.

Also, the printer currently is not capable of matching the resolution of one of the existing technologies I am familiar with, that being polyjet-type printers. The homogenous structure is nice, but if they can't improve the resolution than it will fail to surpass polyjet printers for the particular use that my company has its printers for.

I don't think Carbon3D really knows where they want to go from here, since their current printers demonstrate impressive new technology but also seem to blend the downsides of the professional grade printers and the hobbyist printers.


Just as a side note, you should also check out Gizmo3D, who are currently developing something similar to the Carbon3D.

 Orblivion wrote:
Just as a side note, you should also check out Gizmo3D, who are currently developing something similar to the Carbon3D.

Thanks for the insight. It's nice to get a professional's opinon on the matter.
I've seen with the 501st legion that some people embrace vacuum forming but many others would rather just pay someone to do it for them. Do you think that something like Carbon3D or Gizmo3D will be similar, or will the difficult level of entry be enough for the casual user?

Gizmo3D has some impressive resolution, even though they claim to lose the speed to get that level of detail, the detail is staggering.



Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Scott-S6 wrote:
This video gives you a better look at some samples from carbon3D. The notable thing is how smooth the pieces are - you can really see this on the grey piece at the 30second mark. (and the ability to print a flexible material which definitely has some interesting applications) If they can cost-effectively mass-produce the machine and materials then it's got a lot of potential but that's a big "if".

There are also the issues that Orblivion noted as well.
We will see as time passes, right? Google ventures gave Carbon 3D 100 million dollars to fund their project so they have funding for a while.

The general consensus is that GW would adapt to this technology. Do you agree with that?

I don't think it will have much of an impact. Most GW stores will not allow you to play with 3D printed models and the club I go to doesn't let you either. They might lose some business from people who are not playing at a store and just game with a few friends. I've seen a couple of 3D printed models and they don't look as good as the real models but it might just have been a bad printer. If the detail improves, they might start losing sales but most people I know will always be buying real models.

Gw is probably going to be around the same loss as the Chinese recast cause. its the same people that want to get cheaper alternatives to play 40k. and most of those people dont go to GW stores anyway.

if anything we will probably see more customization single miniatures for things like DnD and RPGs first.

 Necrons wrote:
I don't think it will have much of an impact. Most GW stores will not allow you to play with 3D printed models and the club I go to doesn't let you either.

That was the initial question of the thread. Do you think GW would adapt and start selling models in the same way Steam sells video games (ie, license to download and print X models for Y cost) or would they just try and block all printed models, insisting on people using their own.

Is it feasible for that to even be possible at non-GW sanctioned events? Does the LVO care if you bring Chinese forge world?


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Desubot wrote:
if anything we will probably see more customization single miniatures for things like DnD and RPGs first.

As a DM for years, this is a great idea. For some bizzare reason, all the humans in my world tended to look like empire soliders and the most common enemies were orks (some with sluggas).

Being able to print out the monsters for the weekend adventure would be amazing - especially if you could pick the color. "Oh, they are facing ghouls this week, let me make a few green ones"

I just recently saw a machine that prints with paper and ink.

Fully painted miniatures right out of the machine.

I think thats pretty sick.

I think it was on youtube channel tested.

 labmouse42 wrote:
Do you think GW would adapt and start selling models in the same way Steam sells video games (ie, license to download and print X models for Y cost) or would they just try and block all printed models, insisting on people using their own.

I doubt it. DRM doesn't work, and putting their entire IP up as a free download would be suicide. The only people they'd be able to sell to would be the people who don't feel like screwing around with downloading pirated models and just want to go buy a box off the shelf, and those people also aren't going to be screwing around with 3d printing.

Does the LVO care if you bring Chinese forge world?

The more relevant question is "do they have any way to enforce a no-recasts policy", and the answer is "no". The same thing will happen with 3d printing, if/when it ever gets to a point where the results aren't either garbage or more expensive than buying the real model.

people can tell a 3D printed model to a GW model.

Unless you play in a GW store, which arn't that common in America i doubt people would care. For instance New Jersey has none and the one in NYC is very small. Unless you play with a purist group that insists on you using only GW minis the tech could potentially hurt them if it is developed enough.

 Tamwulf wrote:
That $350 printer cannot even come close to the detail that GW can currently produce. Go ahead, buy it, find the digital files for a Space Marine, download them, and try to print out that one Space Marine to the highest detail possible. Oh, it took 22 hours? Cool. So 220 hours total for a 10 man squad? Awesome! You'll need about 40-50 models, so 1,100 hours and you'll still have the same amount, if not more prep work (file lines/flash and what not) then what GW can make today.

Or, if you have brain one, you print out a whole sprue at once instead of one marine.

And, while the $350 one can't touch it, the $3500 one...



This fellow is about 23mm tall (making him slightly smaller than 28mm heroic) and printed using the Form 1+ printer. Given this fellow, I challenge any of you to tell me you could spot the printed one among the others.

 BaronIveagh wrote:

 Tamwulf wrote:
That $350 printer cannot even come close to the detail that GW can currently produce. Go ahead, buy it, find the digital files for a Space Marine, download them, and try to print out that one Space Marine to the highest detail possible. Oh, it took 22 hours? Cool. So 220 hours total for a 10 man squad? Awesome! You'll need about 40-50 models, so 1,100 hours and you'll still have the same amount, if not more prep work (file lines/flash and what not) then what GW can make today.

Or, if you have brain one, you print out a whole sprue at once instead of one marine.

And, while the $350 one can't touch it, the $3500 one...



This fellow is about 23mm tall (making him slightly smaller than 28mm heroic) and printed using the Form 1+ printer. Given this fellow, I challenge any of you to tell me you could spot the printed one among the others.

The one on the left.

 BaronIveagh wrote:

 Tamwulf wrote:
That $350 printer cannot even come close to the detail that GW can currently produce. Go ahead, buy it, find the digital files for a Space Marine, download them, and try to print out that one Space Marine to the highest detail possible. Oh, it took 22 hours? Cool. So 220 hours total for a 10 man squad? Awesome! You'll need about 40-50 models, so 1,100 hours and you'll still have the same amount, if not more prep work (file lines/flash and what not) then what GW can make today.

Or, if you have brain one, you print out a whole sprue at once instead of one marine.

And, while the $350 one can't touch it, the $3500 one...



This fellow is about 23mm tall (making him slightly smaller than 28mm heroic) and printed using the Form 1+ printer. Given this fellow, I challenge any of you to tell me you could spot the printed one among the others.

This guy gets it. Home printers may never reach the quality we want at an speed fast enough to print and army. But...why would you when you can print a "master" with the spues and vent already in place. Then make a very simple silicon mold and cast as many resin copies as you want. Each of those "masters" may take a day each to print. But when I was resin casting up my true scale marines I could cast 50-60 and 2-3 hours. A gallon of silicon and resin cost around $150-200, but you can literally cast thousands of 28 mm miniatures with that much.

I wouldn't bother with a cheap home machine for miniatures as the detail just isn't their yet. The work great for larger 12-24" models or Cosplay fabrication. But online 3D printers us $10-30K machines with incredible accuracy. They can also print larger models hollow to save material and cost. Not to useful for 28 mm. But for something like a greater daemon or prince it works well. I use Shapeway quite a bit and other 3d artist orient sites you can get it done. It is getting cheaper and last I checked GW isn't .

Can someone please next time they say how awesome 3D printing is going to be, please put a price for it. Put how much hydro it is going to cost, how much the resin or what ever you need to use to be sculpted with is going to cost, how much time it will take to make one mini, and what the wear and tear will be.

Can you say make 20, 30 minis non stop without something burning out?

 Sersi wrote:
This guy gets it. Home printers may never reach the quality we want at an speed fast enough to print and army. But...why would you when you can print a "master" with the spues and vent already in place. Then make a very simple silicon mold and cast as many resin copies as you want. Each of those "masters" may take a day each to print. But when I was resin casting up my true scale marines I could cast 50-60 and 2-3 hours. A gallon of silicon and resin cost around $150-200, but you can literally cast thousands of 28 mm miniatures with that much.

You can already do this by buying a single copy of a kit and recasting it to make a whole army (and armies for your friends, etc). And yet very few people actually do it because it's a ton of work, and most people would rather just buy the finished product from a store.

 Peregrine wrote:
You can already do this by buying a single copy of a kit and recasting it to make a whole army (and armies for your friends, etc). And yet very few people actually do it because it's a ton of work, and most people would rather just buy the finished product from a store.

If the barrier of entry is to great, people won't do it. This barrier could be cost or time.
How many people own an ice cream machine, yet in comparison how many make their own ice cream instead of buying them at the story?
If the tub of ice cream was $80 at the store and $20 to make, more people would make them at home. What if it cost you $90 to make the same ice cream at home? The barrier is also influenced by the savings.

I think the horse has been well flogged on the following points
* Home 3D printers are not there yet
* If you can get an expensive industrial printer, you can make some really cool stuff.
* Due to the costs of material, the savings is not as great as it might seem.
* This could change with new printing technologies, with no timeline in the future. It could be 2 years, it could be 10.

The initial thread topic of "What could GW do to adapt to the environment once that 2-10 year time line comes to pass" has had little input, but the general consensus is that they would adapt.

Davor wrote:
Can someone please next time they say how awesome 3D printing is going to be, please put a price for it.

Carbon3D is still in beta. It's unknown as to the cost. Scroll up to the youtube videos linked to see examples of the work completed.

Gizmo3D printers will run about $3,000, according to their website. Look at the image above of the ring for the detail level available.

The easier 3D printing gets, the more restrictions will spring up around WHAT you can print. Everyone's gotta eat somehow, and when the balancing point tips that something occurs to make 3D printing "affordable", it will throw the manufacturing world into chaos. We're not yet at the point and I believe it will be at least another 10-20 years unless something revolutionary springs up (The Ted video is showing some nice advances, but it isn't quite the catalyst to springboard 3D printing forward in leaps and bounds).

Look at the state of digital media - if you want streaming shows or movie, while there is some overlap some stuff is simply only available via a specific service - Netflix, Amazon, Hulu, VUDU, etc. I very much think that to avoid piracy GW will adopt 3D printing down the line, but hesitantly and with proprietary printers.

I can see down the road proprietary GW "chips" being issued for proprietary GW 3D printers that contained DRM'ed "official" designs for printing - like the one you can buy for devices like the kricut.

Meanwhile, there will be knockoffs where folks have unraveled the DRM and you can print off your minis in lower-cost, lower resolution printers - but that will be a time when practically everyone already has some form of 3D printer in their home.

 Stormonu wrote:
I very much think that to avoid piracy GW will adopt 3D printing down the line, but hesitantly and with proprietary printers.

Which will kill the idea. Few people are going to buy 3d printers. Even fewer are going to buy a special GW-only printer. In fact, I'd be very surprised if anyone would be willing to throw away their money like that. And even GW, as stupid as their upper management is, has to know this. If GW gets into 3d printing at all it will either be in-store printing where the employee has full control of all of the data, or standard-format stuff that you can print at home on any printer you want.