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Was trying to go to sleep, but this was driving me nuts, so I gotta ask.

Let's just say that a random, normal planet with average population(for 40k) had a Genestealer cult and a Chaos Cult start within hours of each other.

Both Cults are working towards their End game goals, Bringing their big bads to the planet, be it a Tendril of a Hive Fleet or a Daemonic Incursion.

How would this most likely pan out and which side is most likely to reach their goal first?

Genestealer. They have the benefit of the mutations, i.e. extra arms and rending claws. Plus there must be at least one genestealer around. A chaos cult is just a bunch of people until a daemon or csm takes notice.

Erm, would hate to shock you but chaos cults are rather notorious for mutations that are often marginally more useful than genestealer mutations, I would argue chaos would win, genestealers are strong but superior psykers and daemon summoming will outnumber and outskill the genestealers

Wasn't there fluff of chaos worshiping genestealer cults...

Probably whoever managed to infiltrate and corrupt the existing power structure and military presence first.

A successful Chaos Cult will summon its daemons centuries before a successful Genestealer cult will summon the Hive Mind.

However:

There are a LOT more successful Genestealer cults than there are Chaos cults, because the vast majority of Chaos cults are discovered and destroyed before they get that far, or are working off incorrect data that won't actually work to summon the daemon they're after.

Also worth noting that the Genestealers are quite likely to quietly take over the Chaos cult (at least in part) either by chance or by design. Anyone impregnated by the Genestealers quickly falls under their dominion. There is even a case in one of the Word Bearers novels in which a Chaos Marine is bitten and can feel his free will slipping away - your standard backwater cultist rabble have little chance at resisting or even realizing it.

Chaos Cults are arguably more dangerous because of the way the Chaos taint works and because Daemons can just step into our reality where as a Genestealer Cult has to wait for a Hive Fleet to emerge from deep space (decades or even centuries), and Hybrids are a generational thing. On the other hand, Genestealer Cults are much (much) better at infiltrating a society and remaining hidden. It is their entire reason for being.

Reavas wrote:
Erm, would hate to shock you but chaos cults are rather notorious for mutations that are often marginally more useful than genestealer mutations, I would argue chaos would win, genestealers are strong but superior psykers and daemon summoming will outnumber and outskill the genestealers

I hate to remind you that those mutations only appear after obtaining the interest of the Chaos gods, and are useless as often as they are beneficial. Plus you rely on having a psyker to summon daemons. It's all speculation though.

I would also say the genestealer cult, simply because their cult could take over the chaos cultists. I don't think it can happen the other way round.
As far as psychers are concerned I think it's even, until the big boys get involved and then chaos would have the edge, but I believe we're talking about the beginnings of a cult.

I'd be on the side of the Genestealer cult. A lot of Chaos Cultists are self-serving rather than fanatical, they see the Chaos Cult as a way to gain power or influence or part take in taboo desires without restraint. This is not so within a Genestealer Cult where every member is telepathically connected to the greater goal of the broodmind. Sure there are some fanatical cultists or demagogues but a large minority of the Cult won't actually want the world to go up in flame, they'll just want to go to Orgies and not feel bad about it. This difference in conviction is the game winner for me.

Yes, but you're all forgetting just how easy it is to actually summon a daemon in 40k.

Compared to a Hive Fleet that has to travel the slow way, a lucky Chaos Cult could summon a daemon within days of first forming.

 Furyou Miko wrote:
Yes, but you're all forgetting just how easy it is to actually summon a daemon in 40k.

Compared to a Hive Fleet that has to travel the slow way, a lucky Chaos Cult could summon a daemon within days of first forming.

On the other hand, even the first stages of a Genesteaker ult will have a few of the Purestrain progenitors of the cult around. Purestrains are definitely a match for lesser Daemons. Heralds and upwards though, doubtful that the handful of Purestrains at the start would be able to carry the fight.

 Furyou Miko wrote:
Yes, but you're all forgetting just how easy it is to actually summon a daemon in 40k.

Compared to a Hive Fleet that has to travel the slow way, a lucky Chaos Cult could summon a daemon within days of first forming.

They'd have to do something to get the notice and favour of a god first, which is why they are a cult. They wouldn't be getting daemons attending the first agm.

Xyptc wrote:
On the other hand, even the first stages of a Genesteaker ult will have a few of the Purestrain progenitors of the cult around. Purestrains are definitely a match for lesser Daemons. Heralds and upwards though, doubtful that the handful of Purestrains at the start would be able to carry the fight.

The question was about 'which would complete their end goal first, the end goal being the summoning of a give fleet / a daemon' though.

JamesY wrote:

They'd have to do something to get the notice and favour of a god first, which is why they are a cult. They wouldn't be getting daemons attending the first agm.

Lesser Daemons are lurking on the other side of a thin barrier. If you're lucky enough to have a psyker around, you can just distract them in the middle of a big casting and voila, daemon.

Otherwise you can just commit a few specific murders in a ritual pattern and weaken the barrier... voila, daemon.

 Furyou Miko wrote:

Xyptc wrote:
On the other hand, even the first stages of a Genesteaker ult will have a few of the Purestrain progenitors of the cult around. Purestrains are definitely a match for lesser Daemons. Heralds and upwards though, doubtful that the handful of Purestrains at the start would be able to carry the fight.

The question was about 'which would complete their end goal first, the end goal being the summoning of a give fleet / a daemon' though.

Yeah, sorry for deviating somewhat.

Are we generally in agreement that the Chaos cult will get there first, unless they are discovered by either the authorities or the Genestealers?

 Furyou Miko wrote:

Xyptc wrote:
On the other hand, even the first stages of a Genesteaker ult will have a few of the Purestrain progenitors of the cult around. Purestrains are definitely a match for lesser Daemons. Heralds and upwards though, doubtful that the handful of Purestrains at the start would be able to carry the fight.

The question was about 'which would complete their end goal first, the end goal being the summoning of a give fleet / a daemon' though.

JamesY wrote:

They'd have to do something to get the notice and favour of a god first, which is why they are a cult. They wouldn't be getting daemons attending the first agm.

Lesser Daemons are lurking on the other side of a thin barrier. If you're lucky enough to have a psyker around, you can just distract them in the middle of a big casting and voila, daemon.

Otherwise you can just commit a few specific murders in a ritual pattern and weaken the barrier... voila, daemon.

Perhaps. I'm just thinking though that, from the beginning, genestealer cults would have the advantage of genestealers and the patriarch. Assuming the cult was just humans, they'd be at an immediate and severe disadvantage. I'll concide that a half decent psyker on the chaos side could tip the balance though, and would probably be at the centre of the cult's beginnings.

The stealer cult would need to wipe the chaos cult out fast though.

I'm not sure why you're pitting them against each other in open conflict repeatedly though. It's a race-to-the-finish, not a who-could-beat-up-who...

 Furyou Miko wrote:
I'm not sure why you're pitting them against each other in open conflict repeatedly though. It's a race-to-the-finish, not a who-could-beat-up-who...

Fair question. I guess I assumed killing the other side would be the natural route to success.

But as well gens could have something more "useful or powerful" than humans, the chaos cult could have some alpha legion marine (and a chaos marine on the lore is dangerous xD) or even a dark priest.

Also the Gods could whisper some kind words to the city ruler xD

I think it would depend on the type of Chaos cult that managed to summon the lesser daemon. If it's a Khorne, Nurgle or Slaanesh cult then the Genestealer cult would have the edge. But if it was a Tzeentch cult then the horror they summoned would generate additional warp charge. Before you know it you've got the Tzeentch Clown Car going full speed ahead and that's all she wrote.

Of course, the ultimate long-angle winner is the hybrid Chaos-stealer cult that can reliably breed psykers to summon daemons to cause chaos and disruption until the hive fleet arrives.

Because as Huron pointed out, that's easy to arrange.