UK Politics

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**AlmightyWalrus**

The snarker in me wants to point out that Britain "forging its own way in the world" worked out really well in Iraq.

**reds8n**

Be fair , we weren't totally on our own.

We were with America who was being run by an idiot with a 2nd rate mind who was very pro war.

What are the odds on....that..... oh........

..... hmm ...

http://news.sky.com/story/japans-unprecedented-warning-to-uk-over-brexit-10564585

At the start of the G20 Summit, the Japanese government has taken the unprecedented step of warning of a series of corporate exits, "great turmoil" and harmful effects if Brexit leads to the loss of single market privileges.

An official Japanese government task force on Brexit, has collated views of big Japanese companies from car companies to banks and pharmaceutical companies that invest in the UK.

It has produced a 15-page list titled "Japan's message to the UK and the EU", detailing requirements from Brexit negotiations.

It lists the consequences if the requirements are not delivered.

Half of Japanese investment in the EU comes to the UK including companies such as Nissan, Honda, Mitsubishi, Nomura and Daiwa.

"Japanese businesses with their European headquarters in the UK may decide to transfer their head-office function to Continental Europe if EU laws cease to be applicable in the UK after its withdrawal," the report concludes.

It says: "In light of the fact that a number of Japanese businesses, invited by the Government in some cases, have invested actively to the UK, which was seen to be a gateway to Europe, and have established value-chains across Europe, we strongly request that the UK will consider this fact seriously and respond in a responsible manner to minimise any harmful effects on these businesses."

The list is the most tangible account anywhere of what businesses are asking for from the Brexit negotiations.

It suggests Japanese car companies fear that they will be hit by a double whammy of trade tariffs.

There were fears of levies being imposed twice "once for auto parts imported from the EU and again for final products assembled in the UK to be exported to the EU - which would have a significant impact on their businesses.".

The report also states that the UK leaving the EU would damage exports from Britain to third countries because of trade privileges within the EU single market around so-called "rules of origin".

"Brexit would make such products unable to meet the rules of origin as EU products, which means that Japanese companies operating in the EU would not be able to enjoy the benefit of the Free Trade Areas concluded by the EU," the report said.

It also calls on the UK to "maintain access to workers who are nationals of the UK or the EU", saying the European labour market could suffer "great turmoil" if EU nationals could not freely travel between and stay in the UK and continental Europe.

The Japanese government warns its banks will move their European HQs out of London if the Brexit negotiations fail to secure the financial services passport to operate in the EU.

"If Japanese financial institutions are unable to maintain the single passport obtained in the UK, they would face difficulties in their business operations in the EU and might have to acquire corporate status within the EU anew and obtain the passport again, or to relocate their operations from the UK to existing establishments in the EU," said the report.

This concern has already been noted by the Bank of England, but this is the strongest indication yet of other nations spelling out the implications of some types of Brexit.

Those impacts also will be felt in the pharmaceutical industry, says the report, which sees the location of the EU's European Medicines Agency in London as crucial to the UK's high tech research appeal.

"Many Japanese pharmaceutical companies are operating in London, due to the EMA's location in London.

"If the EMA were to transfer to other EU Member States, the appeal of London as an environment for the development of pharmaceuticals would be lost, which could possibly lead to a shift in the flow of R&D funds and personnel to Continental Europe.

"This could force Japanese companies to reconsider their business activities," says the report.

PM Shinzo Abe warned of some of this ahead of the Brexit vote in a joint press conference with then-Prime Minister David Cameron.

UK officials reacted with astonishment that Japan had chosen to publish this list of concerns and demands.

PM Theresa May is likely to meet Mr Abe later this month in New York.

I really hope we throw serious £££Sb at whomever we can get to help with the negotiations .

At the moment I'm hoping w can recruit Derren Brown, Paul McKenna & maybe that guy from Little Britain if push comes to shove.

**Whirlwind**

reds8n wrote:

I really hope we throw serious £££Sb at whomever we can get to help with the negotiations .

At the moment I'm hoping w can recruit Derren Brown, Paul McKenna & maybe that guy from Little Britain if push comes to shove.

You are likely to be sorely disappointed. There's to be a referendum on the issue and currently those leading the polls are the cast of "TOWIE", "Made in Chelsea", the winner of the next "Great British Bake-off" with David Beckham managing it all.

Automatically Appended Next Post:

Ketara wrote:

It's probably more down to my occupation. I spend a lot of time as a historian contemplating large sweeps of time, and countless genocides/oppressions. Within that, the professional method of analysis and writing involved is (and indeed, has to be) dispassionate and examine things from as detached/unbiased a viewpoint as possible. It's not a signal that I do not care or lack empathy, but rather the writing style itself and the form in which I've been trained to dissect information.

Fair enough and I understand the need the 'aloof' style; I'd just be cautious when dealing with such issues in the public as you never want to be seen as belittling anyone's plight (even if that was never the intent).

Ketara wrote:
I can understand and accept why that may often come off as being cold-hearted to those with a personal aspect to any given subject of discussion; frankly I find it rare I can find anyone capable of discussing even contemporary politics without that personal edge intruding.

That happens in every field, by default we are emotional animals so avoiding this will always be difficult (and probably impossible).

Ketara wrote:
I knew there was a cynic in there somewhere.

Well maybe, but it's not quite as simple as that. I try and determine what will happen and apply a probabilistic approach to the likelihood based on what has happened in the past and what I think are the driving forces. Hence my views on the Tories are based on largely what they have done in the past and apply what the likelihood is of continuing similar trends. Hence the positive/cynic variation in the views. The positive from the knowledge that we can do better, the 'cynic' from what I think is the most probable outcome.

**SirDonlad**

Silent Puffin? wrote:
Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:

If Sir Donald had responded to you in a similarly rude and hostile manner, what then?

Its not as if he hasn't got prior form:

SirDonlad wrote:
i tire of humouring your willful ignorance.

That was directed at you silentpuffin!!

And i stated that because i claimed that the eu ignores referendum results it doesn't like and you replied that they change the wording a bit and reasoned that this made them a totally different referendum.
I regard changing the title or wording on a referendum for a re-run and claiming that its a totally different referendum as willful ignorance - my opinion hasn't changed on that. sorry.

btw: if you click on the orange writing heading a quote it takes you to the quote in question.

And it's worth pointing out that in your response to that you called me 'stupid' which breaks rule#1.

**Ketara**

Keith Vaz has been caught out it would seem.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37269919

Somewhat embarassing for someone who's made a (slightly shady) career out of lecturing others.

**Whirlwind**

A review of terminology from the BBC article

"Difficult times" and "not be plain sailing" - Tighten your belts, tax increases and more spending cuts are on the way as we try and incentivise businesses from moving elsewhere.
No snap election for "stability" purposes - Having a election now would probably lose me my job as PM. TOry party would split itself down the middle as it argued over whether to be pro or anti EU; Lib Dems and UKIP would pick up the pieces respectively
"Forging our own way" - We haven't got a clue yet as to what direction to take.
"Consult closely" - We'll listen to who we want (or gives us the answers we want to hear)
"Optimistic" about new opportunities - might need to sacrifice some established industries as they move the EU

It's actually this comment that worries me the most:-

In her interview with the BBC, Mrs May said the referendum result had shown voters did not want "free movement to continue in the way that it has done in the past".

as the wording has subtlety altered because it alludes to a reduction in peoples rights rather than "immigration". May has always been consistently against having too many rights for the populace. Also I take exception to the fact that she implies all voters took exception to freedom of movement and I for one did not, in fact unless the referendum had given us options to tick as reasons for leaving then this is her principles being applied to everyone else. She is also partially validating NFs hideous immigration poster.

**Do_I_Not_Like_That**

It seems that the UK won't be a priority for the USA or Japan when it comes to trade deals:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/04/g20-theresa-may-warns-of-tough-times-for-uk-economy-after-brexit

Well, if Japanese car companies want to pull out of the UK, so be it.

I'm prepared to drive around in a Robin Reliant if need be

and if British Leyland has to be re-opened,I can handle that as well

**Mr. Burning**

Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

and if British Leyland has to be re-opened,I can handle that as well

NO! Bad DINLT!

Automatically Appended Next Post:

Ketara wrote:
Keith Vaz has been caught out it would seem.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37269919

Somewhat embarassing for someone who's made a (slightly shady) career out of lecturing others.

He has always been a slimy toad.

Still, he can claim racism, Islamophobia AND Homophobia now as he defends himself.

**Silent Puffin?**

SirDonlad wrote:

That was directed at you silentpuffin!!

And?

You were being undeniably rude and hostile.

**Do_I_Not_Like_That**

I've outlined my vision before for the future of Britain, but for a historical comparison, I think we're similar to Elizabethan England.

Back then, it was England against the might of the Spanish Empire.

In 2016, we're up against the Yanks, Japan, China, and the remnants of the EU.

We need to invoke the spirit of Francis Drake, and Walter Raleigh, we need to be bold, swashbuckling and fearless. Flexible, boxing smart.

Get the goods to foreign ports, grab the cash, and get the hell out again before red tape bogs us down.

Seriously, though, we could have a USP, be smart, be flexible, find our niche.

It's a challenge, but one I think this island can rise too...with the right governance of course...

**motyak**

If you think a post breaks the rules, just flag it. Don't carry on a discussion about it in a thread that has its own topic, thanks

**Do_I_Not_Like_That**

Mr. Burning wrote:
Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

and if British Leyland has to be re-opened,I can handle that as well

NO! Bad DINLT!

Automatically Appended Next Post:

Ketara wrote:
Keith Vaz has been caught out it would seem.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37269919

Somewhat embarassing for someone who's made a (slightly shady) career out of lecturing others.

He has always been a slimy toad.

Still, he can claim racism, Islamophobia AND Homophobia now as he defends himself.

I don't know why British Leyland gets such a bad rep. Sure, there were some 'minor' industrial disputes back in the 1970s

but they did do some decent stuff.

As for the Keith Vaz news, I can't say I'm surprised - he always struck me as the do as I say, not as I do, type.

**Skullhammer**

Oh and a word on the usa obama is out of a job in a few months so hes a lame duck and irrelevant to any future talks with the usa.

While i'm here this is my response to the japanese papers Its called a negotiation strategy demand the world and negotiate and settle for less it is nothing new the only diffrence this time is its in public.but it could well back fire and cause them to lose face and to tgem that is not good at all.

**Optio**

Skullhammer wrote:
Oh and a word on the usa obama is out of a job in a few months so hes a lame duck and irrelevant to any future talks with the usa.

While i'm here this is my response to the japanese papers Its called a negotiation strategy demand the world and negotiate and settle for less it is nothing new the only diffrence this time is its in public.but it could well back fire and cause them to lose face and to tgem that is not good at all.

No it was just a common sense statement from Japan. We want to carry on trading with the common market, they have lots of money in those 28/27 countries. If Britain does not have the access to it we need, then we will go where the money is, simples. It's not a negotiating strategy, its spelling out the facts.

**A Town Called Malus**

Ketara wrote:
Keith Vaz has been caught out it would seem.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37269919

Somewhat embarassing for someone who's made a (slightly shady) career out of lecturing others.

Well, he didn't do anything illegal. He offered to reimburse the prostitutes for cocaine if they wanted to use it themselves, which I think is a bit of a grey area, but the rest of it is perfectly within the law (despite the governments efforts on the poppers front).

**Future War Cultist**

I'm laughing at the news about Keith Vaz.

I'm not laughing about the news from Japan though. It would be a shame but it's early days. Luckily I don't see the EU surviving past the end of the decade so we might be alright.

**Shadow Captain Edithae**

He's an odious hypocrite. I really hope he resigns as an MP, because he's destroyed his own credibility.

**Do_I_Not_Like_That**

Future War Cultist wrote:
I'm laughing at the news about Keith Vaz.

I'm not laughing about the news from Japan though. It would be a shame but it's early days. Luckily I don't see the EU surviving past the end of the decade so we might be alright.

Japan's not going to stop selling cars to the UK. Both nations have right hand drive in their cars, so that familiarity is always a plus point when it comes to selling and production.

Automatically Appended Next Post:

Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:
He's an odious hypocrite. I really hope he resigns as an MP, because he's destroyed his own credibility.

For other things, yes, there is a credibility issue, but on this issue, no, IMO, because Vaz has always been open minded about legalizing prostitution.

**Future War Cultist**

@ DINLT

That's true, I suppose. Chin up and stay positive right?

**Optio**

Japan does far more then cars...
The BBC puts the figure at 140,000 employees in the UK working for Japanese firms.
Yes some would stay on in local manufacturing capacities. On the other hand all them European head offices and over EU focuses industries will be gone.
Take Hitachi alone, they have 35separate groups in the UK alone. Its easy enough to work out at least 15 of those groups would shift to Europe if Britain does not get the access they need.
That is a lot of unemployed people and a lot of others moving out of the country.

**Whirlwind**

Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

Japan's not going to stop selling cars to the UK. Both nations have right hand drive in their cars, so that familiarity is always a plus point when it comes to selling and production.

No they won't, but they could move the manufacturing, distribution, admin etc etc to an EU country. It all comes down to whether it would remain beneficial to stay in the UK. It's not about whether they build a right or left hand drive car; that's the easy part. The difficulty comes from where they sell their cars. If 75% are sold in the EU and all of a sudden there are not only import duty on parts from the EU, but export duty on the cars themselves to the EU then they have to either pass that cost on to the consumers (and become less competitive to their rivals) or swallow the profit loss and have to explain it to their shareholders. It then simply becomes a case of cost vs benefit. If the extra cost of the taxes outweighs the cost of moving it's manufacturing base over 15-25 years then it is likely they will move. Not only does this then impact on employment in the UK but also those cars become more expensive to purchase because of the duties so a double whammy for the economy.

Automatically Appended Next Post:

Optio wrote:
Japan does far more then cars...
The BBC puts the figure at 140,000 employees in the UK working for Japanese firms.
Yes some would stay on in local manufacturing capacities. On the other hand all them European head offices and over EU focuses industries will be gone.
Take Hitachi alone, they have 35separate groups in the UK alone. Its easy enough to work out at least 15 of those groups would shift to Europe if Britain does not get the access they need.
That is a lot of unemployed people and a lot of others moving out of the country.

Do those figures include ARM as well that Softbank just recently bought? That would be embarrassing for the government if they were bought out cheap because of the tanking £ and then took the work abroad to the EU.

**Optio**

Whirlwind wrote:

Automatically Appended Next Post:

Optio wrote:
Japan does far more then cars...
The BBC puts the figure at 140,000 employees in the UK working for Japanese firms.
Yes some would stay on in local manufacturing capacities. On the other hand all them European head offices and over EU focuses industries will be gone.
Take Hitachi alone, they have 35separate groups in the UK alone. Its easy enough to work out at least 15 of those groups would shift to Europe if Britain does not get the access they need.
That is a lot of unemployed people and a lot of others moving out of the country.

Do those figures include ARM as well that Softbank just recently bought? That would be embarrassing for the government if they were bought out cheap because of the tanking £ and then took the work abroad to the EU.

I honestly don't know, will be interesting to see what other estimates are out there to get a clearer picture. It's an interesting scenario if that ends up being the case lol.

**Do_I_Not_Like_That**

Whirlwind wrote:
Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

Japan's not going to stop selling cars to the UK. Both nations have right hand drive in their cars, so that familiarity is always a plus point when it comes to selling and production.

No they won't, but they could move the manufacturing, distribution, admin etc etc to an EU country. It all comes down to whether it would remain beneficial to stay in the UK. It's not about whether they build a right or left hand drive car; that's the easy part. The difficulty comes from where they sell their cars. If 75% are sold in the EU and all of a sudden there are not only import duty on parts from the EU, but export duty on the cars themselves to the EU then they have to either pass that cost on to the consumers (and become less competitive to their rivals) or swallow the profit loss and have to explain it to their shareholders. It then simply becomes a case of cost vs benefit. If the extra cost of the taxes outweighs the cost of moving it's manufacturing base over 15-25 years then it is likely they will move. Not only does this then impact on employment in the UK but also those cars become more expensive to purchase because of the duties so a double whammy for the economy.

Automatically Appended Next Post:

Optio wrote:
Japan does far more then cars...
The BBC puts the figure at 140,000 employees in the UK working for Japanese firms.
Yes some would stay on in local manufacturing capacities. On the other hand all them European head offices and over EU focuses industries will be gone.
Take Hitachi alone, they have 35separate groups in the UK alone. Its easy enough to work out at least 15 of those groups would shift to Europe if Britain does not get the access they need.
That is a lot of unemployed people and a lot of others moving out of the country.

Do those figures include ARM as well that Softbank just recently bought? That would be embarrassing for the government if they were bought out cheap because of the tanking £ and then took the work abroad to the EU.

I don't doubt what you say, and it makes sense, but if the UK is to retain Japanese firms, it could be creative. Make them an offer they can't refuse.

Give them 0% rate tax for 5 years, build them a new factory for free, etc etc

All sorts of 'bribes' could be used. I say 'bribes' in the purest legal form of course.

But you know what I mean.

**SirDonlad**

It's a pity the japanes government have stuck an oar in so early - i think it might be them trying to hurry things along vis-à-vis brexit negotiations, i recon they don't like the uncertanty of this long waiting period with no clear progress.

**Optio**

Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
Whirlwind wrote:
Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

Japan's not going to stop selling cars to the UK. Both nations have right hand drive in their cars, so that familiarity is always a plus point when it comes to selling and production.

No they won't, but they could move the manufacturing, distribution, admin etc etc to an EU country. It all comes down to whether it would remain beneficial to stay in the UK. It's not about whether they build a right or left hand drive car; that's the easy part. The difficulty comes from where they sell their cars. If 75% are sold in the EU and all of a sudden there are not only import duty on parts from the EU, but export duty on the cars themselves to the EU then they have to either pass that cost on to the consumers (and become less competitive to their rivals) or swallow the profit loss and have to explain it to their shareholders. It then simply becomes a case of cost vs benefit. If the extra cost of the taxes outweighs the cost of moving it's manufacturing base over 15-25 years then it is likely they will move. Not only does this then impact on employment in the UK but also those cars become more expensive to purchase because of the duties so a double whammy for the economy.

Automatically Appended Next Post:

Optio wrote:
Japan does far more then cars...
The BBC puts the figure at 140,000 employees in the UK working for Japanese firms.
Yes some would stay on in local manufacturing capacities. On the other hand all them European head offices and over EU focuses industries will be gone.
Take Hitachi alone, they have 35separate groups in the UK alone. Its easy enough to work out at least 15 of those groups would shift to Europe if Britain does not get the access they need.
That is a lot of unemployed people and a lot of others moving out of the country.

Do those figures include ARM as well that Softbank just recently bought? That would be embarrassing for the government if they were bought out cheap because of the tanking £ and then took the work abroad to the EU.

I don't doubt what you say, and it makes sense, but if the UK is to retain Japanese firms, it could be creative. Make them an offer they can't refuse.

Give them 0% rate tax for 5 years, build them a new factory for free, etc etc

All sorts of 'bribes' could be used. I say 'bribes' in the purest legal form of course.

But you know what I mean.

You have missed the point of what Japan are saying, these companies operate in the EU as well. They need to be based in a country which is part of the legal framework of the EU. Creative solutions are irrelevant. Read the Japanese statement, its quite clear. If the UK is not longer part of the common market and the legal framework behind it, were gone.

**Future War Cultist**

I'm not worried. I just remembered how Ford moved its production of transits from the UK to Turkey. Using an EU loan to do so. Why would a company looking to sell to the EU move outside of it if doing so would hinder it from selling there? Nah, there's always around it I'm sure.

**Optio**

If you look at the figures the Southampton plant had nowhere near the production capacity or ability to expand that the established Turkish plant had. Let's not forget that in 2012, the EU was interested in getting Turkey on board with the EU and was helping it. Much like it did with many of the other later arrivals to the EU such as Romania. Osbourne signing over 10M pounds for the deal was just an example of him being a misinformed idiot. In the context of the time it made perfect sense for Ford to do so. EU sales of Transits were falling anyway, centralising production is a very logical step.

The case of Japan is completely different.

**Kilkrazy**

Skullhammer wrote:
Oh and a word on the usa obama is out of a job in a few months so hes a lame duck and irrelevant to any future talks with the usa.

While i'm here this is my response to the japanese papers Its called a negotiation strategy demand the world and negotiate and settle for less it is nothing new the only diffrence this time is its in public.but it could well back fire and cause them to lose face and to tgem that is not good at all.

It's not a negotiation strategy. The Japanese negotiate behind closed doors. If they come out with a statement like, "... we strongly request that the UK will consider this fact seriously and respond in a responsible manner ..." they are taking it pretty seriously.

Let's face it, companies such as Toyota and Honda who have big investments in the UK are completely understandably worried that Brexit will feth their gak up. They don't want to go to the trouble and expense of moving everything from Swindon to Bratislava or Valencia or Hamburg but, at the end of the day, billions of dollars speak rather persuasively to international mega-corporations. No doubt the Japanese managers and their families would rather live in the UK than Slovenia but they will go where Head Office sends them.

**Whirlwind**

Optio wrote:
Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
Whirlwind wrote:
Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

Japan's not going to stop selling cars to the UK. Both nations have right hand drive in their cars, so that familiarity is always a plus point when it comes to selling and production.

No they won't, but they could move the manufacturing, distribution, admin etc etc to an EU country. It all comes down to whether it would remain beneficial to stay in the UK. It's not about whether they build a right or left hand drive car; that's the easy part. The difficulty comes from where they sell their cars. If 75% are sold in the EU and all of a sudden there are not only import duty on parts from the EU, but export duty on the cars themselves to the EU then they have to either pass that cost on to the consumers (and become less competitive to their rivals) or swallow the profit loss and have to explain it to their shareholders. It then simply becomes a case of cost vs benefit. If the extra cost of the taxes outweighs the cost of moving it's manufacturing base over 15-25 years then it is likely they will move. Not only does this then impact on employment in the UK but also those cars become more expensive to purchase because of the duties so a double whammy for the economy.

Automatically Appended Next Post:

Optio wrote:
Japan does far more then cars...
The BBC puts the figure at 140,000 employees in the UK working for Japanese firms.
Yes some would stay on in local manufacturing capacities. On the other hand all them European head offices and over EU focuses industries will be gone.
Take Hitachi alone, they have 35separate groups in the UK alone. Its easy enough to work out at least 15 of those groups would shift to Europe if Britain does not get the access they need.
That is a lot of unemployed people and a lot of others moving out of the country.

Do those figures include ARM as well that Softbank just recently bought? That would be embarrassing for the government if they were bought out cheap because of the tanking £ and then took the work abroad to the EU.

I don't doubt what you say, and it makes sense, but if the UK is to retain Japanese firms, it could be creative. Make them an offer they can't refuse.

Give them 0% rate tax for 5 years, build them a new factory for free, etc etc

All sorts of 'bribes' could be used. I say 'bribes' in the purest legal form of course.

But you know what I mean.

You have missed the point of what Japan are saying, these companies operate in the EU as well. They need to be based in a country which is part of the legal framework of the EU. Creative solutions are irrelevant. Read the Japanese statement, its quite clear. If the UK is not longer part of the common market and the legal framework behind it, were gone.

I'd disagree and Do_I_not_like_that is probably correct. The UK government is likely to offer 'bribes' to the industry to stay and it won't be just to a handful it will have to be many because if one industry gets a concession the others will be clamouring for it too (including the banking sector). Make no mistake businesses work on profit and if the tax rebate/capital taxes etc are beneficial enough then companies will stay.

The point being missed though is that this all costs money which has got to come from somewhere. They can either borrow more although not particularly likely as even Labour in their current disorganised form will take them to the cleaners because they can show that the enforced austerity never worked, the Tories have failed etc.

The alternatives are less palatable.

Either the public pays by paying more tax (not very Tory like who work on a low tax system, but possible given May's warnings - 'not plain sailing etc'); or
You cut expenditure to the state (very likely given Tories opinion that we should have minimal state system and the person put in charge of Local Government is very anti-State so another indication of direction); or
They cut legislation that increases costs for businesses; so maternity/paternity pay, environmental constraints, working standards.

Both the last two are more likely to be palatable in some ways as they are hidden savings; but as I mentioned previously in general this lowers standards of living for the lower incomes and most vulnerable parts of society. However from a Tory view this is likely to be more acceptable as such people don't generally vote Conservative. To keep these companies in the UK there will be costs and with a Tory government those on the lower end of the pay grade are more than likely going to be the ones that pay for it (again, just as like happened due to the financial crisis).

**Optio**

Whirlwind wrote:
Optio wrote:
Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
Whirlwind wrote:
Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

Japan's not going to stop selling cars to the UK. Both nations have right hand drive in their cars, so that familiarity is always a plus point when it comes to selling and production.

No they won't, but they could move the manufacturing, distribution, admin etc etc to an EU country. It all comes down to whether it would remain beneficial to stay in the UK. It's not about whether they build a right or left hand drive car; that's the easy part. The difficulty comes from where they sell their cars. If 75% are sold in the EU and all of a sudden there are not only import duty on parts from the EU, but export duty on the cars themselves to the EU then they have to either pass that cost on to the consumers (and become less competitive to their rivals) or swallow the profit loss and have to explain it to their shareholders. It then simply becomes a case of cost vs benefit. If the extra cost of the taxes outweighs the cost of moving it's manufacturing base over 15-25 years then it is likely they will move. Not only does this then impact on employment in the UK but also those cars become more expensive to purchase because of the duties so a double whammy for the economy.

Automatically Appended Next Post:

Optio wrote:
Japan does far more then cars...
The BBC puts the figure at 140,000 employees in the UK working for Japanese firms.
Yes some would stay on in local manufacturing capacities. On the other hand all them European head offices and over EU focuses industries will be gone.
Take Hitachi alone, they have 35separate groups in the UK alone. Its easy enough to work out at least 15 of those groups would shift to Europe if Britain does not get the access they need.
That is a lot of unemployed people and a lot of others moving out of the country.

Do those figures include ARM as well that Softbank just recently bought? That would be embarrassing for the government if they were bought out cheap because of the tanking £ and then took the work abroad to the EU.

I don't doubt what you say, and it makes sense, but if the UK is to retain Japanese firms, it could be creative. Make them an offer they can't refuse.

Give them 0% rate tax for 5 years, build them a new factory for free, etc etc

All sorts of 'bribes' could be used. I say 'bribes' in the purest legal form of course.

But you know what I mean.

You have missed the point of what Japan are saying, these companies operate in the EU as well. They need to be based in a country which is part of the legal framework of the EU. Creative solutions are irrelevant. Read the Japanese statement, its quite clear. If the UK is not longer part of the common market and the legal framework behind it, were gone.

I'd disagree and Do_I_not_like_that is probably correct. The UK government is likely to offer 'bribes' to the industry to stay and it won't be just to a handful it will have to be many because if one industry gets a concession the others will be clamouring for it too (including the banking sector). Make no mistake businesses work on profit and if the tax rebate/capital taxes etc are beneficial enough then companies will stay.

The point being missed though is that this all costs money which has got to come from somewhere. They can either borrow more although not particularly likely as even Labour in their current disorganised form will take them to the cleaners because they can show that the enforced austerity never worked, the Tories have failed etc.

The alternatives are less palatable.

Either the public pays by paying more tax (not very Tory like who work on a low tax system, but possible given May's warnings - 'not plain sailing etc'); or
You cut expenditure to the state (very likely given Tories opinion that we should have minimal state system and the person put in charge of Local Government is very anti-State so another indication of direction); or
They cut legislation that increases costs for businesses; so maternity/paternity pay, environmental constraints, working standards.

Both the last two are more likely to be palatable in some ways as they are hidden savings; but as I mentioned previously in general this lowers standards of living for the lower incomes and most vulnerable parts of society. However from a Tory view this is likely to be more acceptable as such people don't generally vote Conservative. To keep these companies in the UK there will be costs and with a Tory government those on the lower end of the pay grade are more than likely going to be the ones that pay for it (again, just as like happened due to the financial crisis).

Japan have made it very clear what they want from the UK. "Japanese businesses with their European headquarters in the UK may decide to transfer their head-office function to Continental Europe if EU laws cease to be applicable in the UK after its withdrawal."