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 Future War Cultist wrote:
If a general election was called and won by a party campaigning to envoke article 50 I guess that would legitimise it further.

IMO, we're well past A50 being activated. That ship has sailed, or about to sail

Nah, the GE should be run on the basis of who has the best vision for Britain's future in this brave new world of ours. For me, that is THE most important thing.

I just wish they'd hurry up and do it. It's almost been a year since the vote. But I suppose that since Cameron handled it so badly the mess had to be sorted out first.

Scotland will be the next big challenge. I hope when the dust settles it's still a part of the UK but I don't take anything for granted anymore.

The mess hasn't even got going yet.

May to trigger Brexit on March 29th...

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
May to trigger Brexit on March 29th...

Now who will stick their oar in a try to derail this date?

The Tories themselves are probably up there.

Any late legal challengers out there?

 Mr. Burning wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
May to trigger Brexit on March 29th...

Now who will stick their oar in a try to derail this date?

The Tories themselves are probably up there.

Any late legal challengers out there?

I think there's a court case going though the Irish courts about whether A50 can be reversed. Logically, it can't be, otherwise, every EU nation would threaten to trigger it in order to shake down Brussels for more concessions.

Hmm, rumours seem to have been going around about a snap election to be called on May the 4th.

At this point? God knows. Only a clairvoyant could predict what the hell is going to happen next.

Bout fething time. David Cameron should have called / tried to call one the day he lost the Referendum.

If it happens I'm turning up at the poling booth with a lightsaber.

http://metro.co.uk/2017/03/20/bookies-slash-odds-of-snap-general-election-being-called-in-early-may-6521415/

Could be interesting, I'm guessing only because May might feel confident of an overwhelming Tory majority due to Labours weakness, but it could prove awkward if the Lib dems do well.
They could capitalise on any anti Brexit/ Tory feeling, and with Labour weakened, they could make some in-roads in a few constituencies in London, else where, I'm not so sure. Tim Farron is already trying to tempt centrist Toris to defect, unlikely to happen, but stranger things and all that.

It's about time they triggered that. It's been almost a year since the vote.

 Future War Cultist wrote:
It's about time they triggered that. It's been almost a year since the vote.

Yes, well, enormous constitutional changes often take a little longer than 9 months to sort out. This has been quick by comparison.

Based on the pace of getting an agreement to actually activate article 50, I think the 2 year time frame is ludicrously optimistic. I stand by to be corrected though. Personqlky I think we're going to be out to WTO rules, with all that that will entail.

Out of interst does anyone know how long the negotiations for the UK to join the EU were? Because this doesn't really feel too slow to me. (again, ignorant Yankee)

 Co'tor Shas wrote:
Out of interst does anyone know how long the negotiations for the UK to join the EU were? Because this doesn't really feel too slow to me. (again, ignorant Yankee)

Four years. We applied three times in the sixties. Two of them were vetoed by the French and the third, in 1969, went through so we could begin negotiations on membership. We then officially joined in 1973, alongside Denmark and Ireland.

 A Town Called Malus wrote:

 Co'tor Shas wrote:
Out of interst does anyone know how long the negotiations for the UK to join the EU were? Because this doesn't really feel too slow to me. (again, ignorant Yankee)

Four years. We applied three times in the sixties. Two of them were vetoed by the French and the third, in 1969, went through so we could begin negotiations on membership. We then officially joined in 1973, alongside Denmark and Ireland.

So this has been rather speedy all things considered.

Ah the French, didn't want us in and now don't want us to leave

 Co'tor Shas wrote:

 A Town Called Malus wrote:

 Co'tor Shas wrote:
Out of interst does anyone know how long the negotiations for the UK to join the EU were? Because this doesn't really feel too slow to me. (again, ignorant Yankee)

Four years. We applied three times in the sixties. Two of them were vetoed by the French and the third, in 1969, went through so we could begin negotiations on membership. We then officially joined in 1973, alongside Denmark and Ireland.

So this has been rather speedy all things considered.

It has but remember that there were people angry that Article 50 wasn't enacted the day after the referendum, despite the fact that there was no goal of what the UKs position would be or even the staff to negotiate on the UKs behalf.


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Marxist artist wrote:
Ah the French, didn't want us in and now don't want us to leave

Well, the reason they didn't want us in is because of this exact scenario.

 r_squared wrote:
[url]
Could be interesting, I'm guessing only because May might feel confident of an overwhelming Tory majority due to Labours weakness, but it could prove awkward if the Lib dems do well.

Something something divisive referendum getting in the way of Brexit something something.

If she does call an early election I trust she will also agree to the SNP's referendum timetable?

 Silent Puffin? wrote:

 r_squared wrote:
[url]
Could be interesting, I'm guessing only because May might feel confident of an overwhelming Tory majority due to Labours weakness, but it could prove awkward if the Lib dems do well.

Something something divisive referendum getting in the way of Brexit something something.

If she does call an early election I trust she will also agree to the SNP's referendum timetable?

My girlfriend said the exact same thing actually.

All aboard the Brexit train! Where it stops? Nobody knows!

 Graphite wrote:
Hmm, rumours seem to have been going around about a snap election to be called on May the 4th.

At this point? God knows. Only a clairvoyant could predict what the hell is going to happen next.

It's highly unlikely.

To be able to call a snap election there has to be a legislative change. That's about a month's worth of back forth just to get it through after being drafted. IIRC the only other way for this to occur if there is a successful vote of no confidence in the government (and how likely is that to succeed)? So if we assume legislative change then the earliest they will be able to call it (and that's assuming there isn't an Easter recess) will be around end of April which is nowhere near long enough for the appropriate preparations. Also it would a massive burden on councils as many already have local elections to deal with.

Still this is the Tories and they are that incompetent that May will probably announce it and then it will take some reporter to point out that they can't because of the legislation and then they will make a massive u-turn in the following week...

If anything it is more likely to be the autumn when Donald Trump arrives with the US army and takes over whilst May bows down in reverence to him in the Vogue magazine.


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 Silent Puffin? wrote:

 r_squared wrote:
[url]
Could be interesting, I'm guessing only because May might feel confident of an overwhelming Tory majority due to Labours weakness, but it could prove awkward if the Lib dems do well.

Something something divisive referendum getting in the way of Brexit something something.

If she does call an early election I trust she will also agree to the SNP's referendum timetable?

SNP will likely sweep the floor with every area apart old fartsville and some of the islands that are LDs. That would give a massive mandate then for a referendum in late 2018 which would make it very difficult for May to say she represents the will of the people.

All aboard the Brexit train! Where it stops? Nobody knows!

Hopefully not a death train. Hopefully UK will stay united.

 welshhoppo wrote:


All aboard the Brexit train! Where it stops? Nobody knows!

That's easy at the bottom of a very deep dark chasm as the government has completely forgotten that they need to build a bridge first and as they don't believe in experts they have the positive belief that fairies and friendly gnomes will come down and magically transport the train to a world of wonderful make believe.

 wuestenfux wrote:

All aboard the Brexit train! Where it stops? Nobody knows!

Hopefully not a death train. Hopefully UK will stay united.

Well the trains got momentum, it has no brakes. Grab on and hold on tight.

 Whirlwind wrote:

SNP will likely sweep the floor with every area apart old fartsville and some of the islands that are LDs. That would give a massive mandate then for a referendum in late 2018 which would make it very difficult for May to say she represents the will of the people.

Of course, polling actually puts the SNP in a stronger position now than they were in 2015, and while it would be hilarious to see David Mundel lose his seat (forcing a member of the Lords or an 'English' MP to be the Secretary of State for Scotland) it does mean that the dishonesty in May's rhetoric would be shown stark relief (again).

I doubt that we will be seeing a snap election though.

A snap election has apparently been ruled out until 2020 (when a GE is due anyway).

If May wants an election she only has to bring a short Bill to rescind the Act limiting terms, in order to call an election on the basis that a new parliament should vote on authorising A50. However, she obviously doesn't want an election or she would have done this before getting into the fight about parliament voting on A50.

There'd be proper outrage if she triggered A50 and then wasted 8+months fething around with a new general election.

But then there'd be outraged if she didn't trigger until a general election, too.

There's always outrage, I think it's the only thing we do well at the moment.

We have no other choice. Its pretty much set.

We voted. We put so much on this.
We have to pull that trigger.

For good or ill this road is set.

Not at all; some politicians have talked themselves into a corner and that's it. The only thing that's set is that they need to find a way to get out of this whilst keeping their power.

I think May will jump at the chance to delay longer, she needs all the time she can get.

 jhe90 wrote:
We have no other choice. Its pretty much set.

We voted. We put so much on this.
We have to pull that trigger.

For good or ill this road is set.

Nothing is ever set in stone, but if there was a magic anti-Brexit button to get out of this I think it would have been hammered flat by now.

There'll be no last minute legal challenge, no last minute ejector seat. We're in it now. Bit of a gakker really.