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2016/12/22 23:56:40
Subject: Berlin lorry ploughs into Christmas shoppers - possible terror attack
On the contrary, I think you missed my overall point. Statistics do matter when discussing the refugee influx. The highest profile attacks committed have been done so by French and Belgian nationals who certainly did not need to infiltrate refugee groups to get back. Second of all, the Berlin attack however tragic was on a much smaller scale than those in France.
You point is that refuges are statistically nota threat and also are not seen to be responsible for actioned attacks and very few terrorist infiltrators have been detected amongsrt the large influx of Syrian refugees. So in your opinion it is unwelcoming and unhelpful to focus on them, If that was your point, then I understood it.
My point was that you can't just handwave other countries as complacent, but then blast Germany cause it had to be all the refugees clogging up the system. In Germany it was complacency too in part as I will explain at the end.
OK. Merkel was complacent, and doctrinaire in exposing Germany to massive immigration. The German security services were not complacent they were looking at the problem most studiously from what we can see. Every indication shows that the German state security took the Islamic threat and Islamic immigration very seriously.
Again, what is your reason for assuming so, what are your indications? Every state should take it seriously, that doesn't mean they didn't make a mistake this time.
And in the 70's and 80's we had left wing socialist violence in Europe, certainly a side effect of large non-integrated socialist cultures in Europe The leading cause for homegrown radicalization is the inability and difficulty that second or third generation immigrants have in functioning in society, there are still issues of racism towards employment and less viable chances overall in life. These people radicalize cause they see it as there only way out and are in one way or another desperate, not because they are not integrated.
Patently untrue. The terrorists we are finding have histories of having no intention to integrate. Germany is not a nation of lost opportunity, at least since the early 60's. Second or third generation immigrants in Germany are part of a society that had no problems providing high employment and had jobs for immigrant, primarily Turkish workers. As with any such immigration there were clashes with far right, far left and fundamentalist individuals, but by and large Germany has have a Moslem workforce for a considerable time, and it has not found itself to be an unwanted and unemployable minority driven by desperation. The facts imply don't bear that out.
I cant say I remember too much of my life in Germany in the 70's and in the late 80's early 90's but finding work as an immigrant (or equivalent) was very easy. Its still easy enough today. In fact unemployment is at a 35 year low right now, even with an extra million inhabitants and with many of those still in processing camps.
I'm speaking about Europe in general. Again the heaviest attacks have been committed by second and third generation nationals. The man in question now has been in Europe since 2011-2012, you're telling me it took him 4 years to work out how to steal a truck? Even in Germany there is discrimination to a certain extent, you can't just ignore the problems these communities face. There are also hundreds of German nationals that went to Syria. Why did these people go if its so great in Germany. Some people just fall outside of the system and feel the need to take out that frustration in this manner. I'm not saying its right or that they shouldn't try harder instead of this, but neglecting that this is one of the main causes of us losing sight of radicalizing nationals, we think they are fine and should be ok in our society, but not all are. I know how Germany works as I have studied it extensively both in an economic and security context, its a great country and arguably the most successful one of mainland Europe. That still doesn't mean that some people don't get left behind and 'act out' in insane ways.
Jihadism is just another side effect of a large political stream of thought such as socialism or nationalism. We have to combat it, but the way isn't to treat all Muslims as fifth columnists.
Here you have a clash of wills. Its the same strategy. The ihadists will want to hide in the immigrant population to turn the populace against them and to make the state have no choice but to heavily monitor them. As the immigrants are progressively alienated more will be open for radicalisation.
The state on the other hand knows the best way to combat that strategy is to integrate. The best way to integrate is to show some trust and faith and opportunity to the immigrants. Germany was willing to do this, and greeting the first wave with clapping. The unfortuneate fact is that an unknown proportion are already radicalised, and many more are sympathetic to jihadism.
Again you're relying on some random number. Its like Rumsfeld's unknown unknowns. Of course refugees and immigrants should be monitored, but so should the native population. The difficulty is establishing how many the intelligence agencies actually catch compared to the real numbers, but so far we have no evidence of it being a large number.
IDK why you think I'm wrong as the evidence so far is stacked against you.
You are wrong because you are looking at this in a skewed and two dimensional way. In effect you have bought the soothing words of propaganda indicating there is nothing wrong. Such as the only four confirmed previously actioned terrorists in the immigrant population detected. For a start thats detected, and its only one category. Also an ex-Jihadi is probably less of a threat than those who have yet to commit an attack and want to do their bit.
Soothing words of propaganda? Look at your comments, you're basically saying that everyone of those refugees could be a terrorist in disguise. I could say that every Dutch or German person I meet is a murderer in disguise. This is why evidence and numbers matter, we have the data to show that no, most of them aren't. Yet you insist I'm looking at it from a skewed perspective? I never said nothing was wrong, but it certainly isn't the huge problem were trying to make it out to be. Again in two years of massive refugee influx its been four cases in Germany, why do we assume there are hordes of them just waiting, waiting for what? What is stopping them from crossing the border, shaking the attention of the national agency and stealing a truck?
1. Four is too many. Four is also smaller than the amount of murderers nationals bring forth that is too many. Again you can provide me the numbers if it is too high amongst that section of the population right? Demonstrate that the refugees are out of proportion. Going of homicide statistics proves you wrong though. And really we shouldn't compare the Irish from the troubles to a war zone with daily airstrikes, poison gas attacks and years of siege, one is more likely to bring out a higher number of psychological issues than the other.
Ok. So lets look shall we. According to this site Germany does very well according to 2010 data 8 murders per million population.
This is not unexpected. Sounds like those refugees are twice as unmurderous as regular Germans yes?
Sorry wrong.
First the vast majority of murders are regular crimes. For every person being targeted by a terrorist even in a war zone, several more will die because of looting, collateral, etc.
In a civilised nation murders happen because burglars get disturbed at home, muggers panic after the victim takes too long to get his wallet out, because they shoot a cop, or want to collect insurance money etc etc.
- Approximately eight or so of those Syrian refugees will be of that mindset also year by year, assuming all people in Germany have a broadly similar outlook towards crime. The terrorists are EXTRA bonus for Germany!
- The murder rate in Syria prior to the civil war is 21 per million, assuming the immigrants behave like Syrians and not Germans, and this is fairly indicative of how murder statistics play out, we can exprct a three fold increase to the national average . To be fair to the Syrians, twenty one per million is still not too bad, about half as murderous as Americans at forty two murders per million..
- The state security found four ex-terrorists, how many didn't they find? How deep is the iceberg, whst havent we found yet and how many are fresh terrorists in waiting.
- Terrorists are a special problem. Most murder is avoidable unless the murderer intended to kill you. Hand over the wallet, look yourself in the bathroom and phone the police, dont confront an armed intruder. Most murders are crimes of excess. This doesnt work with terrorism. You are shopping when.... you are on a train when.... you go to a synagogue when.... Its different.
Here is a better list from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime compiled by the World Bank: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 It has newer data showing it is close to 1 in 100.000 now. Not that much different overall.
So you're saying that because these Syrians might possibly commit murders at the same rate as German nationals that this is a problem? Syria and Germany are completely different countries. Lets get your Turkey analogy back. The rate in Turkey is 4 per 100.000, yet it was never mentioned that the Turks in Germany went on murder sprees that were bigger than those of native Germans. You're assuming that people behave the same way or that the system does in a completely different country. There are many factors involved in homicide rates. The fact that those Syrians for at least two years haven't lived up to this 2.1 per 100.000 is showing that they don't export murder. Or are you arguing they are acclimatizing before they start turning Germany into Syria?
The state didn't find those four terrorists, that's why we know they exist. It might be an iceberg, or it might be an ice cube, but lets not overreact until we know which one it is. If it is an iceberg statistics will slowly show an increase and appropriate measures can be taken. Most murders are also committed by someone you know and not burglars. It is well known that in the summer more people get killed while the time of year for burglars is the darker winter months. Now if you mention organized crime as a whole that might be a factor, but just burglars alone don't murder hundreds each year. Terrorism might be a sudden death, but so is getting murdered by someone you know, so far that someone you know is more likely in Germany.
2. In two years its been four people! Meanwhile almost 1600 Germans have murdered someone else. The better have a whole army biding their time to make up for their efforts so far. And we have a good idea how many are committed terrorists, just look at the nationals list, Germany had several hundred nationals going abroad to fight who are now returning. Your terrorism 101 is also a tad outdated.
Your post is a bit disjointed and unclear here. Are you talking about German passport holders who go off to fight jihad? If so its a problem for the UK also. But its a problem we cant prevent entering the psyche because the people who have these intentions already unfortunately have EU passports.
The trick is not to add more.
Apologies, I indeed referred to those with a German passport or nationals. It is a smaller problem in Germany than in the UK, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, but a problem non the less. The issue I was bringing up is that we don't have clear ways of dealing with those who return, as a lack of evidence (although intelligence agencies frequently know) means we can't convict them for participation in terrorist organizations. Just last Tuesday the Dutch agencies announced that they don't have enough time, people or funds to even keep a proper eye on these nationals, yet we haven't had an attack yet. Is that dumb luck, quite possibly. Has it been dumb luck for Germany so far? Again, possibly.
The most successful terrorist attacks have all been committed by trained terrorists. So far you are just speculating about numbers that isn't in any way supported by the evidence. When will we see this massive increase in attacks? If it is as easy as stealing a truck, why isn't this a weekly occurrence?
We sadly must speculate about numbers because the real data gets classified in a hurry. If I did know the real data I couldn't share it on Dakka, and neither could you.
We have to go by patterns of what is in the public domain. Four 'ex-terrorists' found in the Syrian refugees, check, note however exactly how that number is broken down and what it doesn't include. Its a safe number to release to the press and may well be unindicative. Veteran jihadis will be easier to find, they might have recorded images of them with ISIL flags and guns, or be known of from fellow fighters. Also few will dare try to enter Europe if they are known actioned fighters, they will be easy to find and might get charged with terror offences on entry. Finally ISIL neds its veteran fighters in the war and cant spare triggermen to sit in German refugee camps. By and large those four are likely deserters. ISIL will send a different category of people as sleepers.
Yes that is the problem. The issue with terrorism is that it works on such a psychological fear of us as Europeans that it is easy to overreact. I'm not saying you do, but there are plenty of people and media willing to provoke that fear further.
I'm just saying that trained ones have been shown to be a bigger threat. Only the Berlin attacker managed to claim more than one life, we also have the slightly hilarious one of the guy who only managed to blow himself up with a bad bomb. Inexperience means its harder for these people to make large attacks. So far we have no indication they send actual sleeper agents besides the two from the Paris attack, but that was with inside help. Of course they might exist, but so far there is no reason to assume to pose a risk significantly larger than domestic violence, although certainly more shocking.
3. Of course it means they were right to investigate, it's what they exist for. But based of those statistics either they are doing a good job or there just aren't that many. Of course this could change later with radicalization, but that is an argument to help them to the best of our abilities, to make sure they don't have a need to fall back into bad habits.
You half understand. Yes most are actioned yet, but if they are already sympathisers and mostl already radicalised you are onto a loser. Unless you have heacvily encouraged integration. Sadly Europe doesn't do this because the political classes are in denial. Instead radicalised immigrants go into the mainstream European population where they learn very quickly that Europe is rife for jihad. We are so piss weak in their mind (and not without merit of argument) that because we make excuses due to liberal progressive attitudes, and because our society is constantly trying to overlook abuses, or blame it on far right lies. Many of the immigrants see no reason to integrate, no reason not to extend bad habits. Rape and rape away, the weak western politicians will cover up the horrible truth.
There is no incentive to integrate, and they don't want t join what they see as a dying infidel society, not when they are as their clerics say already are on the winning side.
Of course once they radicalize it might be too late, although heavy surveillance by both social and intelligence groups can provide an avenue to de-radicalize. If not then prison or an institution is always a resort to lock up those to dangerous to function in society. No one tries to justify attacks, the once that commit them are scum. But part of the larger group of refugees not integrating is also a problem of state funding for these programs, we always expected them to take care of themselves, but it turns out if you don't reach out to integrate, then neither will they. Again, look at the German rape statistics I quoted, it is not different from the national average.
Security agencies certainly don't have an endless budget. Yet even in countries with significantly larger and well developed agencies such as the U.S. you still have attacks from time to time, it is impossible to stop each and every one of them.
Agreed, it is a difficult process. But I'm just trying to keep the discussion on the process in reality, which the media doesn't always do.
It is hard to use the media. Far right is far right, progressive left is just as bad, in fact worst as it covers up crimes, at least the far right have a valid excuse for their anger, the problem instead is what they do with it.
From the UK perspective the press dont want to know the gory details.
The case of brutal horrible and violent discrimination in Birmingham that I knew of in 2008 was so brutal and violent and discriminatory that the press didnt want to know, with exception of the Daily Mail. My contacts decided not to run with the story because it would then be 'yet another' Daily Fail lie and it would do that family no good. The actual truth is the Daily Mail and Daily Express are posting REAL stories of brutal offences by Islamic minorities that nobody else will print, and are thus seen as uncorroborated lies.
Thankfully in 2010 the new Prime Minister acted very quickly on the Islamified Trojan Horse plot in schools, the papers covered stories from the times. Though some covered more than others. However it was refered to as a Trojan Horse plot, as in covert and only late detected, that was a nice bit of spin. It wasnt in any way undetectable, the Islamic teaching staff were very overt in their discrimination indoctrination and brutality, its just that the Blair and Brown administrations didnt want to know about it.
You have to look between the lines on these issues use the independent and alternative media, look at intelligence websites and see independent reports. Thankfully due to the mobile phone it is getting difficult for European government to keep a full lid on the Islamic rape culture as victims have social media, an some nasty cases are happy slapped anyway by the perpetrators.
Media always tries to spin it, only very few don't, but with sales as is they all tend to rely on click-baitey articles. That's why I just tend to go to government publications for the statistics. I know that the UK media is particularly divisive in a way the Dutch media hasn't reached yet, there are a few attempts however. Again look at the government statistics on rape, why would independent organisations bother to lie, they just report the crimes that get reported. You can't say its difficult to keep the lid on it and at the same time have the statistics show that no lid is being lifted or that the lid doesn't even exist. That's conspiracy level stuff.
If both those countries drop the ball once in a while, why does it have to be refugees for Germany? Why can't Germany just drop the ball, as it is starting to look like. Yet even Isreal, with its massive investment had great trouble with the second Intifada or just last year with loners stabbing or running over people. There is a limit to what you can prevent. Maybe the four in Germany just prevent that limit to an extent.
Even Mossad/Shin Bet and MI5 drop the ball, and those are the best internal security agencies on the planet since the end of the DDR. Try as they might nobody stops them all. Israel still gets attacked frm the inside every now and then, and atrocities like 7/7 occur.
Error and complacency are not the same, humans make errors, bad discipline makes complacency.
Again it is difficult to know which of the two happened in Germany. In truth we will likely not find out for years unless a Paris level attack occurs and German agencies are forced to grovel in public like the French.
The AfD blamed this attack on Merkel for letting the refugees in. If this isn't a clear cut case for AfD thinks refugees=terrorists=dead Germans=blame Merkel for refugees I don't know what is. Blaming just the Muslims isn't any better, it just makes you more racist, the ones most open to radicalization are some of the most secularized Muslims.
Right the AfD is not saying this about refugees. they are saying this about Islamic refugees. Please notice the difference. The Uk has the same difference, there are anti Islaic movement and anti-refugee movements. The two overlap but are not the same:
Anti-refugee arguments = 'they are taking our jobs', 'our country is full', 'social welfare and state medical care are overstretched'.
anti-Islamic refugee arguments = 'we are importing jihad'
AfD might well have anti-immigration policies on top of anti-Islamic policies but the two are in fact separate issues.
Are we talking about the same refugee problem? You know, the one of the Syrian Muslims fleeing there country for Germany? The AfD is using nothing but euphemisms that the nationalist crowd responds to. Most right wing parties tend to say Muslim immigrants, but they still won't let christian Africans crossing from Libya in. Even they don't hold a strict difference, here you have it from the horse's mouth:
Beatrix von Storch, a German MEP, and vice chair for the AfD Party, told Radio 4's The World at One that "it is not possible to let in so many refugees" and "as far we know the terrorist was one of them".
I await your reply to tell me in which part of this sentence she mentions Muslims.
The AfD, Front National and Wilders all lie based on false statistics. These people don't have the answers, they are just the alt-right or breitbart of political parties. We tried having Wilders involved in government and he knew gak all, these are not coherent parties, they are foreigners bad! Ethnic (christian) nationals gud!
I think Peregrine is helping out this part nicely.
Peregrine is always happy to help out if he can bash Christians. Nearly all the political power amongst Eurpean parties is secular, there are few exceptions and most who call themselves Christian are making an ethnic statement not a statement of faith. Christian Democrats is just another very European way of saying 'liberal' and is a secular movement overall. Many centre politic non-chtristians, atheists or agnostics will have common ground with them to the point of representing them in various parliaments.
While Peregrine can get a little overenthusiastic, I think most of us tend to suffer from this from time to time. We discuss stressful topics that involve a good deal of emotion, having said that I want to thank you so far for the civil discussion, we might not agree, but at least we can discuss.
Actually we have a very christian party in parliament that does make a statement of faith. It is however a tiny party with roughly 2% of the vote, yet present every time. I agree that most parties tend to have common ground, but in systems such as France and the UK extreme parties tend to be a bit more problematic if given the opportunity to come to power, as that means it frequently has the majority. In Germany and the Netherlands that is a bit more complicated, but in none of the listed countries it is likely one of those parties will ever gain enough support. That's exactly why they do what they do, call me cynical, but a lot of those parties yell insane or stupid things because they know they will never have to rule, but yelling gives them enough support for a decent paycheck (or in the case of Wilders probably better than decent).
Again with the empty rhetoric. Give me something to work on, evidence the Iceberg is covered in refugee infiltrators. Non of the facts are on your side.
Oh come on now.
Handwave denials. How lazy, how common. How to answer this:
A. In case you are terribly stupid.
No, sorry I don't have access to classified information, or don't want to go to prison by sharing it on Dakka. I will leave you to speculate which is true.
B. In all other instances (which I presume means you).
You don't have/or cant share the facts either for the above reason. Stop placing an uneven burden. You have equal access to what we all have. Press reports, eye witness reports, and inquiring and and analytical brain.
I cant disclose operational details of counter-terrorist statistics, I don't possess, neither do you possess this data. The data we get released by government intelligence sourcing are heavily editted and massaged for propaganda value.
The main tool we have for determining effect is the fact that what we see today hold true with patterns of terrorist and intelligence operations in history, and we do have information on the methods. For example he methodology for Islamic revolution is similar to the methodology for socialist revolution. What worked in Cuba will to some extent work in Europe, though the timescales will be longer as socialism is for all, sharia society is for the Ummah, and Islamification spreads about the same speed of the demographc of the ethnic Moslem population and most Islamists beleive that conversion while it will help is only a minor factor.
We also have historical evidence as to how jihad itsefl operated in the modern age. Iran is a good well documented example, Taliban in Afhanistan etc. Its harder to get a real look into western security agency methodologies but those are also in the public domain if you look. Both from historical counterintelligence methods, CIA in Central America for example, or better yet from terrorist vs western security conflicts that have moved into a post conflict period of openness and healing. The best two examples of this are Northern Ireland and South Africa. These last two conflicts were operated by competent and well funded security agencies and while much remains classified, much is also in the public domain, most notably methodologies.
So all in all. I don't have meaningful data, neither do you. We both have access to information about how terrorists and security agencies work and can see that the patterns of what works from both ends are being replicated by the parties concerned. Remember that as ISIL is linked to a long history of terrorist activities in the middle east the commanders of ISIL will be largely following the methodologies of previous terror agencies. What works/ed for Hamas, Taliban or for that matter Irgun, works for ISIL.
So cut the bullgak of saying unless one has a load of classified counter-terrorist data to spill on Dakka one has no argument.
Also you dont understand the iceberg reference.
The analogy is not an iceberg covered in Islamic infiltrators. The Islamic infiltrators are the iceberg. Take a look at the above picture. How much 'Islamic fundamentalism' do you normally see if we represent Islamic fundamentalism as ice. Jihadist infiltrators don't normally announce themselves, you have find them. Some are better hidden than others.
German state security srutinised the refugees and found that their concerns hold true, jihadists have infiltrated the refugees. This is likely why most are still holed up in detention centres and are not allowed to roam around Germany. They are in effect imprisoned/detained indeinitely.
We found 'only' four was NOT the good news you think it is.
I know you don't have the actual facts and neither do I. I'm just arguing that going on the facts we have is better than stumbling around blind, you get better policy. Of course it comes off as a bit 'lame' that I ask for something to back up your statement you cant acces. But were both arguing the other one is wrong based on those missing or partially facts. Were the pot and the kettle by now. I take issue with the fact that you think all European governments are manipulating data to present refugees as less of a danger, as you would think committing terrorist attacks is hard to conceal. What you're asking of people is to rely on faith, while I'm asking people to look at my partial data displayed against the nation's data and draw their own conclusion. I have extensively studied security and intelligence as part of academia, I'm familiar with what data is available and trends etc. Domestic and even Jihadist terrorism like you say is nothing new. But based on historical trends and what is available, I don't feel the need to overly worry about the refugee influx, a few might slip by, but I consider that the trade-off to helping those refugees. You might not agree with that, but they are here so we have to treat the problem realistically (which for all we know they already do). I got the Iceberg reference, I just made a bad joke Its just that we don't know anything about the iceberg and we can fight all day about how much is under the water, all we can really say is how much is visible, which is four people. And again, we have no idea how many they found as these were the successful ones.
Please also bear in mind it is in the partisan interest of the German government just as it was with New Labour regime in the UK and currently in Sweden to heavily downplay the threat posed.
You quote Gatestone? The 'think thank' run by crazy 'bomb them all' Bolton? They are as conspiracy and fear mongering as you can get. I give you government data and you bring in some conspiracy theory about them manipulating data, while bringing up the one of the biggest actual manipulators. Again here is the data:
Recent numbers from Germany’s Federal Criminal Police Agency (BKA) suggest that the influx of refugees into the country this fall had a low impact on crime numbers relative to the natural uptick that would happen with any population increase: Although the number of refugees in the country increased by 440 percent between 2014 and 2015, the number of crimes committed by refugees only increased by 79 percent. (The number of crimes against refugees increased as well.) Furthermore, according to Deutsche Welle’s analysis of the report, the number of offenses increased in the first half of 2015 but “stagnated” in the second half, precisely when most of the refugees were arriving and the rumor mill switched into overdrive. And although sexual offenses account for over 25 percent of the rumors on the Hoaxmap, the BKA data showed that only 1 percent of refugee-related crimes fell into the sexual offense category.
How are statistics skewed, we have it on record that there is no increase in reports, you're just grasping at straws saying but they could be, but then so could those of the native pop.
How do you claim I am clutching at straws. I didnt link to the Islamic rape crisis because I didnt need to. No more than I need to post the wiki page on Germany to show i am not talking about a made up fictitious country. The evidence is all around you.
Have some more:
Again you give me right wing crazies. The NY post and muslimstatistics. I give you government data. When we see enable rape culture and rape epidemic, those websites aren't as objective as you think. I am familiar with your last case and it was terrible. However one case doesn't mean there are dozens or hundreds buried by the government. Refugees don't commit more crimes than the regular population, it is about equal.
We should let 1.1 mil people rot because of that chance?? We have had refugees from the Middle-East and Jihadism since the 70's yet it has never been an enormous problem, what makes people believe its going to be one now?
There is one now because of the head in sand denial that is enabling Islamic immigrants to impose their standards where women have grossly inferior status and rights on our society. Those immigranbts who tried that in the 70's were quickly rounded on. We didnt tolerate rape culture because our politics was not infected with progressive liberalism or political correctness. Immigrants from violent third world countries were told that Europe was different. For the most part it worked.
We also didn't import millions in the space of a few weeks and above all Islamic fundamentalists, while definitely there did not see our societies as week and ripe for takeover as the current generation of radical clerics see the west due to the apologism demonstrated by those in European society who refuse to see the threat.
In effect Islamists see Europe as ripe for the taking because of apologists like yourself. You might hold liberal values, and some of them are laudable at face value. These people will exploit that, but once they have a majority, which is the state claim of many clerics they will impose their will and your rights and customs will NOT be respected.
Bending over backwards 'tolerence' only leads to self destruction. You are feeding the wolf and letting it grow.
The two sources are double sourcing of one cleric. This is far from an isolated opinion though.
I don't know what to say, you're arguing about us being weak and rape culture, while only providing the most biased sources to back up these claims. Islamists can certainly try to take over Europe and apologists like me will certainly be called upon to serve our countries (I too have a flair for the dramatic). Nice Huntington-esque world view. Islamists are far and few in between, most are just regular people who try to live their life as best they can. First we were those weak capitalists and now were those weak progressives. I will unfortunately not be around when they achieve this magic majority, as projections show that will be far in the future. I'm not burying my head in the sand anymore than you are. What rights have we lost to enabling Islamic immigrants? The only thing I see is us banning expressions of faith such as Burka's or Burkinis, whatever your thoughts on those may be it still shows you we ban what we find uncomfortable. I'm familiar with radical clerks but unless they say something that is against the law they are protected by free speech. I know some other disgusting people who fall under those same protections such as Neo-Nazi's and Reichsburger. Every group has its crazies and we should take care not to fall into the hands of one group to stay out of the hands of another. Shrieking about made up facts certainly isn't going to help that.
It does sectarian for one reason, it's just to outlet for all the problems they encounter, their justification, most of these young men weren't strict Muslims (drinking, sex, eating pork) to begin with but Radical Islam is their outlet for frustration just like communism used to be. In the Netherlands in the 70's and 80's we had Indonesians from our former colony commting terror attacks to protest there treatment, they were in majority christian. It is almost like colonizing someone, then having a massive transplantation of an entirely different cultural and ethnic group has some effect if not managed properly.
The problem now exists on a different scale, hence the influx of rapes and the political paralysis in dealing with the issue.
The scale is roughly the same or even smaller if we compare it to the violence in the 70's and 80's, ignoring made up facts along the way.
All European nations are guilty of doing less than they should have done to integrate these people, and of course some of the blame should rest on those that are unwilling as well.
Blame the victims.
No, we are all victims of the state's inability to properly form a cohesive social group out of its citizens. I'm not saying its the fault of those murdered nor am I excusing the murderer. In general, we can do better to try and avoid this from repeating.
Yet the amount that goes on and commits these kind of attacks is tiny and not in any way representative of these communities.
That is so wrong. What was very alarming other than the attacks themselves, was that on the day of 7/7 Moselm community leaders on TV refused to condemn the attacks, and the odd one or two who did made wishy washy statements about being against all violence. Also the sympathiser to terrorist ratio is normally very high, got a terrorist, you have x thousand sympathisers also. I dont have the figure for the actual ratio.
This is also a consequence of the fact that the Muslim community leaders we have are in the majority religious leaders we have to import from the Middle East because it requires such a massive amount of study only a child can properly start. Fun fact, most of the imams for the Turkish community in the Netherlands are actually trained and payed by the Turkish state, crazy right. There is also the element of selection bias by the media, what sells better? And the attackers are still not representative of the whole, people may sympathize but at least they don't act. If you want to see some crazy sympathizing just go into the Aleppo or Russian Ambassador threads. We can find a lot of sympathy there for crazy things too. Does that mean all of DakkaDakka condones it?
We have blown this issue out of proportion because it seems very scary to us that we can just be killed by a random angry person. Yet the chance of dying in a car accident is much higher but it doesn't make people less hesitant to drive a car.
Terrorists are out to get us, and they WILL kill us if they can. And I don't live in fear of that. But I do live in a reality of saying 'no jihadists welcome here'. And if it means it takes a while for the Syrian refugees to sit in a detention camp until Germany thinks they have deported all the undesirables then so be it. The German government has decided by their own sovereign will to do exactly that.
In a nutshell the German government doesn't trust all those Syrian refugees to be properly vetted and processed yet. Merkel for all her talk of opening Germany has decided possibly under heavy advisement from the German security services not to release all the Syrians into the national community, at least not yet.
A car does not target me no, but it is still a deadly vehicle that claims many more lives than the occasional terrorist in the West. Its about the trade off, we accepts traffic deaths for economic benefits just as we accept that there are a few terrorists to save hundreds of thousands of refugees. Treating them as an enemy behind our lines will not help to keep them from radicalization by those few terrorists. What the German government does is actual quite standard procedure, it is done regardless of the refugee crisis. Most European countries put these people into detention centres to sort out paperwork. I had a friend from Belarus who spend six years in one of those centres before they finally got it sorted out (deportation as it turned out). Its standards, nothing to due with advisement. That they are easier to monitor in one place is just a happy side effect for the relevant agencies doing shakedowns.
Sure, but I was just mentioning that they did not seem to have a good video of the attacker this time as they arrested the Pakistani first and only almost two days later figured out that it might have been someone else. That's the point I was referring to in this case, apologies if that was unclear.
Your comment was valid either way. Police were not negligent by arresting the wrong man, they acted quickly on fallible eye witness testimony and arrested the wrong man. The police also took caution but didnt automatically presume his guilt allowed the suspect to defend his own reputation and let him go once they were sure he was no longer a suspect. By which time forensic evidence was now available and the search criteria changed.
Arrest immediately based on eye witness info, then switch once scientific info is processed looks to me that the Germans are trying to do what they can when they are able to do it, and are not sitting around.
They came up with a prime suspects identity fairly quickly all told, about as quickly as they could have done. Forensics takes time.
The post-attack reaction appears competent and professional on every level.
I agree, they handled it very well with fair treatment. Someone else in such a situation might have been intimidated to say things they did not want to by authorities. I was just referring to the fact that if they had video evidence of him leaving the truck or shortly after they might have realized it sooner, sadly no information seemed to be available and they resolved it by seemingly finding the other man's ID in the truck.
In this case he left his ID in the truck (apparently). Further information we have gotten is that he looked and inquired into ways to make explosives and sought out IS online.
Very possible. If he left his ID it was a lucky break, but the police waited until they had forensic evidence to tie him to the vehicle.
ID can be planted as a decoy, if it buys critical hours for the suspect to escape so much the better.
Possibly, but the person who the ID belongs to has been missing since Monday. Knowing where he lives and sleeps should enable the comparison of DNA evidence or something else to link him to it. The fact that he still seems to be the main suspect seems to imply the lucky (although very silly) break.
That combined with the firearm sure makes it seem like the intelligence agencies dropped the ball. To make it even worse, he was already supposed to have been deported back to Tunisia but they were unable to.
I thought you were going to use this as your claim for German complacency at the beginning of your post.
First as stated earlier this isnt complacency, after all the German security services did want to deport him. He wasn't overlooked.
Second you aren't being fair. There are a large number of people security services want out of a European country but cannot get rid of as easily as they would have liked.
Take this charming gentleman:
Spoiler:
Early in the Blair years he was clearly a threat an in the press but the government of the time wanted to downplay Islam, which was odd allowing for how vitriolic they could be with other forms of dissent.
When the government did want to act and extradition warrants started to be filed from partner agencies there began a long legal battle to deport Hamza. Hamza was eventually deported after several appeals in 2012, eight years after extradition request was signed. The European Courts also got involved.
It is interesting that the timeline of Hamzas extradition covered a similar period of hacker Gary McKinnon. McKinnon's extradition appeals were exhausted fairly rapidly and the European courts were not sympathetic despite large holes in the extradition claim against him and human rights issues. McKinnon only managed to stay in the UK because his extradition became toxic because of massive popular support and press attention. Hamza had a large press attention and the UK government could not get rid of him fast enough, and the British people were eager to comply with US extradition requests. Yet appeal after appeal and European interference protected him for a long time, human rights issues were raised even though there was no indication the US were a threat to his human rights unlike McKinnon.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abu_Hamza_al-Masri https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_McKinnon
Hamza is now in Florence ADX, Colerado supermax, and there he is likely to stay. McKinnon is safe so long as he doesn't enter the USA anytime over the next seventy odd years. I think he can manage.
Yeah I thought about doing so, but decided against it for this part. It is true that it is difficult to deport those who no one wants to accept. The rule of law makes these things very complicated and drawn out, however heavy monitoring of such an individual is sure to continue so they should not have missed that. I'm not sure if immigration wanted to deport him or if it was done so one the advice of intelligence agencies though, I don't think I have read it anywhere clearly one or the other way.
Part of what you mention is about not crossing the line technically and part of it is not having the primary ally and superpower breathing down your neck. Another factor is probably perception, the idea of extraditing a radical Muslim to the U.S. will have most likely conjured up images of Guantanamo once or twice in the minds of those handling those cases. Still, its not always fair and sadly there is not much you can do about it once in the system.
So here we have a man who was clearly looking at a way to attack Germans and acting on this in front of the police, that would assuredly be deported back to Tunisia, perhaps making him even more desperate or rushed to commit this attack, yet he was still walking around as a free man. If that isn't a whole heap of ineptitude and complacency I don't know what is!
As stated above deportation is not a given. Heavily extended and lucrative legal processes get in the way. Terror suspects are cash ins for state funded lawyers, who can claim extra fees from the public purse because they are dealing with security issues. Its a popular junket. Its how people like Cherie lair made their millions. Deportation for everyone else is more open and shut.
Press tend not to report that bit, but as with Abu Hamza sometimes the full, ugly, fee ridden and lucrative process is revealed.
Yes it is very likely that the German security services wanted to remove Anis Amri, but cannot due to technicalities. He was monitored not arrested in a prior sweep and we will never lnow exactly why. whether he was considered too low down the perceived threat order to arrest, or because doing so would expose operations, or monitoring him was expected to lead security to yet unknown figures. It is hard to condemn German intelligence for their hard choices.
And if they hadn't the manpower to continue monitoring him due to having to vet 1.1 million Syrians I have sympathies.
Merkel is blaming the police, wheras she should be blaming the open door policy. Amri's deportation failed due to lack of paperwork from Tunisia, a neat lawyers trick.
True, but a man with a death sentence so to speak will work more quickly to cross things of his bucket-list. While it can take a long time being involved in the legal issues of deportation most likely means increased scrutiny in activities that might be brought to bear in court.
I agree with hard choices, sometimes you just can't give evidence no matter how tragic the consequences will be. Unfortunately trading lives is also one of the jobs of intelligence. Merkel tries to avoid blaming anyone, but with poll numbers as they are and an upcoming election, you can see she is getting uncomfortable hovering between maintaining her position and not losing the electorate. It is a fine line to walk, with most politicians failing to do so. I don't think either deserves too much of the blame, that is for the next generation to work out based on all the hard facts that we lack to give a definitive conclusion.
Sorry for my spelling. I'm not a native speaker and a dyslexic.
1750 pts Blood Specters
2000 pts Imperial Fists
6000 pts Disciples of Fate
3500 pts Peridia Prime
2500 pts Prophets of Fate
Lizardmen 3000 points Tlaxcoatl Temple-City
Tomb Kings 1500 points Sekhra (RIP)
2016/12/23 00:00:32
Subject: Berlin lorry ploughs into Christmas shoppers in terror attack
So we go into Syria and beat Assad and the Russians? Its not very likely the Sunnis are that willing to go back to a Syria that is ruled by Assad. Terrorism wasn't the reason they fled, it was the government opening up on protesters with attack helicopters.
You are basically advocating building a giant Iron Curtain to keep out refugees who will almost assuredly be granted political asylum. The plan is absurd, no one wants to live in a tent jobless for five years, no matter how clean that tent is. They don't want to go back else they wouldn't come here in the first place. And who is going to pay for all this stuff. This will cost billions or trillions of Euros for something with negligible effect, because as already said under European laws these people will be granted the right to stay. Kinda like how we don't tend to send people back to North Korea, Cuba or other places with murderous regimes. With the money you would spend on this we could easily settle them in Europe and integrate them to the best of our abilities. What you're proposing is just going to slow down their entry into Europe and it won't make them any friendlier. Again, you're basically advocating the unrealistic or death.
What jhe90 wrote isn't absurd.
A lot of your posts are.
The case made by our Mr Müller ( Gerd Müller / CSU / BMZ ) how we could help many times more people closer to where they come from instead of having them in the middle of Europe is convincing.
He said it multiple times and I think people like you try their best to ignore the possibilities. I'd rather see € invested long term and with less participants.
"Advocating death" ... you know how silly replies like this are? The choice where you are isn't always yours. The Laws dealing with this are also not set in stone for eternity. The Right to stay can be granted or denied.
But never should it be acceptable to let some "undesirables" go somewhere else and then refuse to take them back. Seems this happens....
To crash a truck into people is a crime.
If someone had his time in jail already, maybe the group "refugee" or "immigrant" isn't the correct tag to put on him?
So following your logic, we should not deny entry to anyone, because the person who may be a risk to the life of humans already here cannot be a problem if part of the group "refugee"...
maybe one Day you realize, the Germans don't argue for "zero refugees" but for keeping the state in control who is running around here.
No one said "let them die out of sight".
But there is no reason to hand out "get free out of jail cards" just to make a few people living in an illusionary world happy.
When you have a million arrive quickly. You lose all control. There is no way you can have vetted one million to propper degree in one to two years.
That's enormous numbers to house, to vett, to support.
It's just not gonna work...
Let correctly vetted and supported batches in, get that batch settled and then only tthen let the next wave in.
Now wr support those we take correctly, control the flow and are safer to boot.
Not madness....
...
Also saying about longer term. That's the exact western problem. We think in a few months, a year, a election. NOT decades, we do not think how somthibf gonna hit down the line and do stuff for political gains at long term expense to ourselves.
We need to start thinking further than next election.
...
Lastly.
Supporting decent, and supportive camps locally, where we generate work, wehere there is opertunity.
This is how we combat migrant flow. And extremists. We give a man a job, not a gun even if that job ain't great, and his home not perfect. We give that man a reason not to take up the gun..
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2016/12/23 00:02:52
Sgt. Vanden - OOC Hey, that was your doing. I didn't choose to fly in the "Dongerprise'.
"May the odds be ever in your favour"
Hybrid Son Of Oxayotl wrote:
I have no clue how Dakka's moderation work. I expect it involves throwing a lot of d100 and looking at many random tables.
FudgeDumper - It could be that you are just so uncomfortable with the idea of your chapters primarch having his way with a docile tyranid spore cyst, that you must deny they have any feelings at all.
2016/12/23 00:05:34
Subject: Berlin lorry ploughs into Christmas shoppers in terror attack
So we go into Syria and beat Assad and the Russians? Its not very likely the Sunnis are that willing to go back to a Syria that is ruled by Assad. Terrorism wasn't the reason they fled, it was the government opening up on protesters with attack helicopters.
You are basically advocating building a giant Iron Curtain to keep out refugees who will almost assuredly be granted political asylum. The plan is absurd, no one wants to live in a tent jobless for five years, no matter how clean that tent is. They don't want to go back else they wouldn't come here in the first place. And who is going to pay for all this stuff. This will cost billions or trillions of Euros for something with negligible effect, because as already said under European laws these people will be granted the right to stay. Kinda like how we don't tend to send people back to North Korea, Cuba or other places with murderous regimes. With the money you would spend on this we could easily settle them in Europe and integrate them to the best of our abilities. What you're proposing is just going to slow down their entry into Europe and it won't make them any friendlier. Again, you're basically advocating the unrealistic or death.
What jhe90 wrote isn't absurd.
A lot of your posts are.
The case made by our Mr Müller ( Gerd Müller / CSU / BMZ ) how we could help many times more people closer to where they come from instead of having them in the middle of Europe is convincing.
He said it multiple times and I think people like you try their best to ignore the possibilities. I'd rather see € invested long term and with less participants.
"Advocating death" ... you know how silly replies like this are? The choice where you are isn't always yours. The Laws dealing with this are also not set in stone for eternity. The Right to stay can be granted or denied.
But never should it be acceptable to let some "undesirables" go somewhere else and then refuse to take them back. Seems this happens....
To crash a truck into people is a crime.
If someone had his time in jail already, maybe the group "refugee" or "immigrant" isn't the correct tag to put on him?
So following your logic, we should not deny entry to anyone, because the person who may be a risk to the life of humans already here cannot be a problem if part of the group "refugee"...
maybe one Day you realize, the Germans don't argue for "zero refugees" but for keeping the state in control who is running around here.
No one said "let them die out of sight".
But there is no reason to hand out "get free out of jail cards" just to make a few people living in an illusionary world happy.
Here we go again. These people don't want to stay in Turkey and no matter how much money we spend that money will be spend on detaining them there. These people risk their lives cause they see a better future for themselves in Europe. No one willingly risks their life for no reason. The argument of helping people over there always sounds nice, but usually result in the establishment of permanent refugee camps with people having to live out their lives there cause no state wants them. Again there is the example of the Palestinians and several African nations.
Make no mistake, sending these people back to Assad is advocating death. Do you know what his regime does to the opposition? We have documented countless war crimes and disappearances. You can call it silly and use all the cute orkmoticons you want but the fact is Assad will certainly kill a part of those that will be forced to go back. Why do you think Europe grants political asylum? The law is very clear on political asylum, we can't knowingly send people back into danger. Sure a few might be bad people, but we shouldn't demonize the whole group because of these.
Following my logic you should screen refugees and only deny those that pose a danger to our society. I never advocated for blanket acceptance of murderers that might be amongst refugees. I advocate against blanket rejection of the refugees over these few murderers. I think you misunderstood my point.
So we go into Syria and beat Assad and the Russians? Its not very likely the Sunnis are that willing to go back to a Syria that is ruled by Assad. Terrorism wasn't the reason they fled, it was the government opening up on protesters with attack helicopters.
You are basically advocating building a giant Iron Curtain to keep out refugees who will almost assuredly be granted political asylum. The plan is absurd, no one wants to live in a tent jobless for five years, no matter how clean that tent is. They don't want to go back else they wouldn't come here in the first place. And who is going to pay for all this stuff. This will cost billions or trillions of Euros for something with negligible effect, because as already said under European laws these people will be granted the right to stay. Kinda like how we don't tend to send people back to North Korea, Cuba or other places with murderous regimes. With the money you would spend on this we could easily settle them in Europe and integrate them to the best of our abilities. What you're proposing is just going to slow down their entry into Europe and it won't make them any friendlier. Again, you're basically advocating the unrealistic or death.
What jhe90 wrote isn't absurd.
A lot of your posts are.
The case made by our Mr Müller ( Gerd Müller / CSU / BMZ ) how we could help many times more people closer to where they come from instead of having them in the middle of Europe is convincing.
He said it multiple times and I think people like you try their best to ignore the possibilities. I'd rather see € invested long term and with less participants.
"Advocating death" ... you know how silly replies like this are? The choice where you are isn't always yours. The Laws dealing with this are also not set in stone for eternity. The Right to stay can be granted or denied.
But never should it be acceptable to let some "undesirables" go somewhere else and then refuse to take them back. Seems this happens....
To crash a truck into people is a crime.
If someone had his time in jail already, maybe the group "refugee" or "immigrant" isn't the correct tag to put on him?
So following your logic, we should not deny entry to anyone, because the person who may be a risk to the life of humans already here cannot be a problem if part of the group "refugee"...
maybe one Day you realize, the Germans don't argue for "zero refugees" but for keeping the state in control who is running around here.
No one said "let them die out of sight".
But there is no reason to hand out "get free out of jail cards" just to make a few people living in an illusionary world happy.
When you have a million arrive quickly. You lose all control. There is no way you can have vetted one million to propper degree in one to two years.
That's enormous numbers to house, to vett, to support.
It's just not gonna work...
Let correctly vetted and supported batches in, get that batch settled and then only tthen let the next wave in.
Now wr support those we take correctly, control the flow and are safer to boot.
Not madness....
...
Also saying about longer term. That's the exact western problem. We think in a few months, a year, a election. NOT decades, we do not think how somthibf gonna hit down the line and do stuff for political gains at long term expense to ourselves.
We need to start thinking further than next election.
...
Lastly.
Supporting decent, and supportive camps locally, where we generate work, wehere there is opertunity.
This is how we combat migrant flow. And extremists. We give a man a job, not a gun even if that job ain't great, and his home not perfect. We give that man a reason not to take up the gun..
I covered most of your points in my conversation with Orlianth. However to restate, you can't keep those refugees out if they want to come. Were basically paying Turkey to detain them now while they threaten to open the floodgates again. It is just not economically feasible to build a system designed to keep them out. These people don't want to stay in Turkey, they want a future in Europe for their children and no supported refugee camp will ever provide the future Europe can.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2016/12/23 00:10:11
Sorry for my spelling. I'm not a native speaker and a dyslexic.
1750 pts Blood Specters
2000 pts Imperial Fists
6000 pts Disciples of Fate
3500 pts Peridia Prime
2500 pts Prophets of Fate
Lizardmen 3000 points Tlaxcoatl Temple-City
Tomb Kings 1500 points Sekhra (RIP)
2016/12/23 00:29:08
Subject: Berlin lorry ploughs into Christmas shoppers in terror attack
So we go into Syria and beat Assad and the Russians? Its not very likely the Sunnis are that willing to go back to a Syria that is ruled by Assad. Terrorism wasn't the reason they fled, it was the government opening up on protesters with attack helicopters.
You are basically advocating building a giant Iron Curtain to keep out refugees who will almost assuredly be granted political asylum. The plan is absurd, no one wants to live in a tent jobless for five years, no matter how clean that tent is. They don't want to go back else they wouldn't come here in the first place. And who is going to pay for all this stuff. This will cost billions or trillions of Euros for something with negligible effect, because as already said under European laws these people will be granted the right to stay. Kinda like how we don't tend to send people back to North Korea, Cuba or other places with murderous regimes. With the money you would spend on this we could easily settle them in Europe and integrate them to the best of our abilities. What you're proposing is just going to slow down their entry into Europe and it won't make them any friendlier. Again, you're basically advocating the unrealistic or death.
What jhe90 wrote isn't absurd.
A lot of your posts are.
Respectfully, you don't know what you're talking about. Disciple of Fate has already pointed out that camps don't really work unless we're comfortable with creating a diaspora like the Palestinian refugees who are stuck in said camps because no one will let them in. "Help them over there" is a convenient way of not having to get near the people in need. You're ignoring the fact that the refugees are fleeing Syria because they're getting killed there in the first place (and you want to support one of the guys killing them) and you're ignoring past experiences with giant refugee camps. You don't get to call anyone's posts absurd.
For thirteen years I had a dog with fur the darkest black. For thirteen years he was my friend, oh how I want him back.
2016/12/23 01:08:19
Subject: Berlin lorry ploughs into Christmas shoppers in terror attack
AlmightyWalrus, it is possible the idea for Germany is to repatriate the back to Syrians once Syria is stabilised.
Merkel has likely realised she has made a mistake taking so many, and has in the least realised she has inflamed Germany by dong so and this policy has become her legacy.
1.1 million Syrians is one hell of a lot, even for a nation like germany. When you add the problems with the rapes and lack of integration, and the flat fact that they have been infiltrated; it makes sense to keep the Syrians together so that Germany can say it was their idea all along to let the refugees in for humanitarian relief, feed and cloth them then send them home when the war if over, with a restructuring package.
n'oublie jamais - It appears I now have to highlight this again.
It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion. By the juice of the brew my thoughts aquire speed, my mind becomes strained, the strain becomes a warning. It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion.
2016/12/23 03:43:35
Subject: Berlin lorry ploughs into Christmas shoppers - possible terror attack
Again, what is your reason for assuming so, what are your indications? Every state should take it seriously, that doesn't mean they didn't make a mistake this time.
German non complacency, outside of Merkel and her policy makers can be seen by.
- vetting of the 1.1 million Syrian refugees to the point where they can provide some statistics for the public indicating that vetting is underway. They likely have far far more statistics than the small soundbite provided.
- The fact that despite the first wave of refugees being just let in, post th Cologne rapes the majority are locked into refugee camps on government land.
I'm speaking about Europe in general. Again the heaviest attacks have been committed by second and third generation nationals. The man in question now has been in Europe since 2011-2012, you're telling me it took him 4 years to work out how to steal a truck?
That isn't how terrorism often works. People have to be persuaded to put their lives on the line, often there is a chain of command and leaders want to keep informed and in control for their own egos mostly as many types of attack are brutally simple.
Terrorists often stall if they think they are being monitored or from lack of opportunity.
It is hard for a most civilians to just kill someone, it crosses the line in ways some people find more difficult than their time playing computer games would lead them to believe.
Many want to be the big man, not the martyr. They want to be important in their own sub-communities. They want to be the gun not the ammo.
Suicide attacks and high risk attacks are normally only easy with populations whose lives are so downtrodden their best chances is in choosing how to die. Due to the excesses and abuses of licving under Israeli occupation this is a natural logical conclusion for many Palestinians. It is less of a conclusion once living in the EU.
Most of the attackers are first generation. Amri included, he entered Europe in 2012 so how is he second or third generation. It is true that many are, which shows a failure of integration.
There are also hundreds of German nationals that went to Syria. Why did these people go if its so great in Germany.
they go to jihad from Europe because Allah wills it, and who cares what the infidel Europeans think. lso for some its just an adventure. Notice these jihadis return and want their benefits and social housing and mobile phones and console games. In fact its often why they return.
Some people just fall outside of the system and feel the need to take out that frustration in this manner.
Dont give me that pissweak excuse. People fed up with society vote for the hard left, or a demagogue like Trump, or joins protests like the 'occupy' movement. They dont go on jihad.
Jihad is not about frustration, jihad is about indoctrination into extreme bigotry to the point that the infidel should be put to death and they join that struggle directly or indirectly.
Again you're relying on some random number. Its like Rumsfeld's unknown unknowns.
Sorry no its not. You dont understand what analysts do. They don't just process data, they also process from a void of data, its called extrapolation, not blind guessing
Some people just fall outside of the system and feel the need to take out that frustration in this manner.
Dont give me that pissweak excuse. People fed up with society vote for the hard left, or a demagogue like Trump, or joins protests like the 'occupy' movement. They dont go on jihad.
Jihad is not about frustration, jihad is about indoctrination into extreme bigotry to the point that the infidel should be put to death and they join that struggle directly or indirectly.
Of course refugees and immigrants should be monitored, but so should the native population. The difficulty is establishing how many the intelligence agencies actually catch compared to the real numbers, but so far we have no evidence of it being a large number.
That is relatively easy. Interpol has a file on everyone, that is common knowledge by the 70's. So they have a file on you, and me. Now natural Europeans of any nationality have a history, there will be some exceptions, but most have birth certificates, medical records tax statements etc etc. It doesn't take much to see if you or I are security threats, and we wont be unless we join dodgy websites or visit extremist organisations or sign up to certain activities organised by said organisations. Start working in a neo-Nazi or revolutionary communist bookshop and you will get flagged quite quickly. Start posting on Stormfront or a Jihadi website and likewise.
I could say that every Dutch or German person I meet is a murderer in disguise. This is why evidence and numbers matter, we have the data to show that no, most of them aren't.
Yet you insist I'm looking at it from a skewed perspective?
Indeed. Mainly becasue you are labouring on a false conclusion based on the one piece of government data you have provided this thread. That only four formerly active jihadis were found in the 1.1 million Syrian refugees.
In fairness to you, you have drawn the soothing conclusion you were supposed to when that propaganda statistic was released.
Its still a skewed perspective, when looking at that number and what it actually represents, and then look at the fact that the German government has decided they cant risk releasing those people into the community you should be able to see that that is ill news not good news.
Here is a better list from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime compiled by the World Bank: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 It has newer data showing it is close to 1 in 100.000 now. Not that much different overall.
Different figures, broadly similar though, but admittedly more recent. There are two dips in the German crime stats in the last decade, both to near zero crime. Methinks this is more to do with missing statistical data than a sudden lovefest.
So you're saying that because these Syrians might possibly commit murders at the same rate as German nationals that this is a problem? Syria and Germany are completely different countries. Lets get your Turkey analogy back. The rate in Turkey is 4 per 100.000, yet it was never mentioned that the Turks in Germany went on murder sprees that were bigger than those of native Germans.
Not mentioned. So we don't know. however in many countries even collecting ethnic based crime statistics is considered devisive. Progressives in the Uk and US have a hissy fit over it frequently, and government sometimes flatly don't include the data to protect against offending sentiments.
It gets worse when rape stats are deliberate skewed as has occured in Sweden to falsify statistics and spare the public debate about the awful state of affairs. Germany has to a lesser extent faced the same temptation and so has the UK. In fact New Labour was notorious for this. It is not supirsing that the two largest known cases of long term ethnic abuses the Birmingham child indictrinations at Islamified schools and the Rotherham mass rapes only got challened not by s revelation that they were occurring but by a change of government to one which would not sweep the excesses under the carpet.
Apologies, I indeed referred to those with a German passport or nationals. It is a smaller problem in Germany than in the UK, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, but a problem non the less. The issue I was bringing up is that we don't have clear ways of dealing with those who return, as a lack of evidence (although intelligence agencies frequently know) means we can't convict them for participation in terrorist organizations. Just last Tuesday the Dutch agencies announced that they don't have enough time, people or funds to even keep a proper eye on these nationals, yet we haven't had an attack yet. Is that dumb luck, quite possibly. Has it been dumb luck for Germany so far? Again, possibly.
Again you need to read between the lines. We know a lot about disillusioned jihadis returning to the Uk. Not so much about prosecutions. Imprisoning a jihadi on their return doesnt do much, just further radicalises and hardens them. Prison hardens people and when they come out they will be a serious threat, not a minor threat. So you have to give them life tarrifs, which is hard to do for what you have on them, or let them go.
But look at the emphasis, a lot of information about jihadis finding that they cant get Facebook and have to do the laundry etc etc woe is me. To them jihad sucks. The last thing you want to do is imprison someone like that and harden them. You want to release them to tell their friends back in the their communities how much it sucked to be on jihad away from their creature comforts.
I think this is the message being encouraged.
Yes that is the problem. The issue with terrorism is that it works on such a psychological fear of us as Europeans that it is easy to overreact. I'm not saying you do, but there are plenty of people and media willing to provoke that fear further.
The fear is caused by the atrocities perpetrated, whether mass rapes or bombings or lorry ramming.
Nothing is honestly gained by glossing over the atrocities in order to salve the consciences of the progressives who want to retain the illusion that everything is fine in our tolerant multi-cultural societies.
To ask the hard question: How many Rotherham kids should be raped and discarded to protect the public from the truth that there are serious problems with lack of ethnic integration in the UK. Yes it hyperboric but I want to you try and put a number to it. In a way New Labour did when they allowed the police to shut down angry parents and let paedophile attackers go free because they didn want any ethnic divisions. This is doubly sickening because child rape is the main taboo we have left in our anything goes society.
Of course once they radicalize it might be too late, although heavy surveillance by both social and intelligence groups can provide an avenue to de-radicalize.
You mean contain. You cant de-radicalize, they either stop being radicals of their own accord or they leave or die. Its not a short term problem.
Let in Islamic radicals and you have a long term problem, our political elite in Europe are not set up to handle the long term problems. To them long term means next election, to some next financial quarter.
If not then prison or an institution is always a resort to lock up those to dangerous to function in society. .
If you prison jihadis you have to choose one of three options.
1. Kill them or otherwise allow them to die.
2. Give them life tarrifs.
3. Dedicate a team of intelligence professionals to keep constant tabs on them after release.
European prisons harden the incarcerated. If someone is radicalised and hardened they are a very serious threat.
Again, look at the German rape statistics I quoted, it is not different from the national average..
Forgive me if I missed them but I dont know of any rape statistics you have quoted.
Also note that some European countries have falsified their rape statistics and been caught doing so.
If that is hard to believe look at Rotherham. Sometimes the horrible stories are actually true, and government s have taken thr cowards way out and allowed gross excesses even to the most vulnerable to preserve politically correct dogmas.
Media always tries to spin it, only very few don't, but with sales as is they all tend to rely on click-baitey articles. That's why I just tend to go to government publications for the statistics.
Fair enough, but now you should know better. Our governments do lie, and that isn't tinfoil hat talking, that is flat fact proven because of changes of government releasing changes of policy that allows the truth of excesses to be uncovered. Rotherham and Birmingham again. hough in both those cases the truth revelation was limited, prosecutions have happened and excesses curtailed, but even so these stories have not had full impact, and likely never will.
I know that the UK media is particularly divisive in a way the Dutch media hasn't reached yet, there are a few attempts however.
I dont know. But what do you mean by divisive?
Printing 'right wing lies'
or printing progressive politically correct lies.
The Dutch media has had a taste of how bad it can get, and even had a name for it at the time: 'Education by death' which came to the fore after the murder of Theo van Gogh for daring to practice freedom of expression in the Netherlands. It wasn't just a shooting by a crazy. There is more to it than that.
It appears from our conversation that education by death was shortlived. Many Dutch people don't want to be educated about the true of Islamic radicalism. Otherwise they wouldn't be so hard on Wilders and so easy on Islamic fundamentalism.
Islamic fundamentalists don't want to share Europe with the likes of you and me, they want us to be tolerant, and laugh at our backs when we do. They have no intention of reciprocating. We don't have free speech or right to our traditions, customs or way of life in our own lands if it offends their beliefs. Sharia says so, and they respect Sharia more than our laws and customs; and, if they can, may enact the death penalties on our citizenry for breaking taboos proscribed in Sharia whether Europe embraces Sharia code or not, and whether or not our own law and custom offers protection to the contrary. That is 'education by death'.
Again look at the government statistics on rape, why would independent organisations bother to lie, they just report the crimes that get reported. You can't say its difficult to keep the lid on it and at the same time have the statistics show that no lid is being lifted or that the lid doesn't even exist. That's conspiracy level stuff.
Ok. Please provide them again. Also I will remain sceptical. The claims that European governemnt have been massaging rape statistics is multiply soruced and has been noted in the mainstream press worldwide.
We also have Rotherham to go back on as proof. Yes that isn't in Germany or Sweden but it shows how far a progressive regime in a European country might go to cover up Islamic rape gangs.
Yes I do believe the stories that rape culture is covered up. We have a lot of credible eye witness evidence from victims.
Again it is difficult to know which of the two happened in Germany. In truth we will likely not find out for years unless a Paris level attack occurs and German agencies are forced to grovel in public like the French.
7/7 was as bad as Paris and our government and intelligence services didnt grovel.
Are we talking about the same refugee problem? You know, the one of the Syrian Muslims fleeing there country for Germany?
Sometimes.
Also talking about the issues in broader detail. The rape culture has less to do with the Syrian refugee than the problem as a whole, though there are connexions. Likewise with terror threats.
The AfD is using nothing but euphemisms that the nationalist crowd responds to. Most right wing parties tend to say Muslim immigrants, but they still won't let christian Africans crossing from Libya in.
Not fair. What do you think would happen if the EU was to say to Libyan refugees waiting, 'we will only take the Christians'.
Even they don't hold a strict difference, here you have it from the horse's mouth:
Beatrix von Storch, a German MEP, and vice chair for the AfD Party, told Radio 4's The World at One that "it is not possible to let in so many refugees" and "as far we know the terrorist was one of them".
I await your reply to tell me in which part of this sentence she mentions Muslims.
There are quite reasonable and non racist anti refugee concerns. I mentioned some of the arguments earlier, notably that European countires are already overpopulated, and that our social care system is overburdened.
the main pressure for more immigration comes from three sources. First the bleeding heart liberals or wooly lefties who will not be satisfied unless we cover every piece of land in more housing so that refugees have somewhere to stay. Some of those people are merely naive, others are out and out dogmatised. Corbyn is in the latter category.
The second and real pressure group are business owners who want immigrants to drive down wages. This is for short term personal gain. They don't think that we already have unemployed we can employ, and adding to our population means greater burdens on our infrastructure and welfare systems. But thats tomorrows problems, and the business owners don't care about that, they want cheaper labour now, and more profits now.
The third most insidious source are from political parties who want to encourage immigration to change voter demographics. Those parties like to encourage settlement in specific areas to change vote patterns, and can do so by encouraging housebuilding in those areas and sepoecting who the housebuilding is for. New Labour did this a lot. Its less of a problem in most of the rest of Europe where there is PR.
While Peregrine can get a little overenthusiastic, I think most of us tend to suffer from this from time to time. We discuss stressful topics that involve a good deal of emotion, having said that I want to thank you so far for the civil discussion, we might not agree, but at least we can discuss.
I know you don't have the actual facts and neither do I. I'm just arguing that going on the facts we have is better than stumbling around blind, you get better policy.
Ok. I am not stumbling around blind, and you need not be eirther. You are clearly educated and intelligent. Learn how to analyse, you are not an end user of facts, you are a processor of facts. You can think for yourself. Dont get your opinions from a press release, get your information form a press release and your opinion from your mulling over what you read. Preferably multiple sourced.
And that doesn't mean thinkerz vs sheeple. Analysis is not tinfoil conspiracy, its a natural consequence of the inquiring mind and shounldn't be belittled. Think for yourself. There is football and soap operas and reality TV galore for those who dont. It is why its so important, and that sort of prolefeed has been part of politics since the ludi magni.
If this makes you uncomfortable, perhaps good but start with something easy. Analysis is a major part of history. We have limited info to go by, just slender picking of surviving documentation and what archeologists dig up, and we cant ask the Hittite or Athenian or Saxon governments for data. We have to think for ourselves. Compare what we read and see, look for holes, look for what reports are not saying, reading propaganda for what it is etc etc. There is a lot of assessment, but it isn't guesswork or blind assumption but reasoned conclusion. You will be surprised what we can work out from extrapolation, and yes while we do get bits wrong and theories change our knowledge improves even though events are receeding further in time.
Political analysis is no different. A good analyst can and will assess based on data or a lack of data. Often a void of usable data in an information rich society like our own gives off information of itself. Many analysts make a good rep out of this if they do a good job. You don't need to sit and wait for data on controversial issues like a chick in a nest mouth open waiting to be fed. You can get up and find it yourself. Yes more data is better, but there is a lot to notice just by comparison of known events. If you get good at it you can have a rep for reading a lot of truth out of a little data or reading the kernel of good info hidden in bad data and your opinions will be held with merit.
Of course it comes off as a bit 'lame' that I ask for something to back up your statement you cant acces. But were both arguing the other one is wrong based on those missing or partially facts. Were the pot and the kettle by now.
This is when it becomes the battleground of the mind. Think assess extrapolate, and for the record that doesn't mean agree with me. You can work with the same very limited dataset, asses extrapolate and come to a set of conclusions that is different from my own and discredits my position enough to force me to reassess my theories. If we are working analysis this contrariness is considered a good thing, as we each have evidently different paradigms and by feeding off each others arguments we have a better chance of working out what is really going on.
Too many Dakkaites handwave away analytical opinion, and want to be spoodfed data to swallow, often data that isnt available or is just consumed without through and regurgitated as opinion.
I take issue with the fact that you think all European governments are manipulating data to present refugees as less of a danger, as you would think committing terrorist attacks is hard to conceal.
I didn't say all. It is very evident New Labour UK government did exactly that, I express such as a fact. There is evidence that Sweden and Germany have done so, but that is not conclusive. I have no opinion on other countries in Europe, I havent looked into them much with regards to this issue, except the situation in Hungary, and I do admit t not looking for evidence of rape culture in Hungary, I only took interest in the fact they closed their borders and the consequences of doing so with the EU bureaucracy, which was surprisingly little, and of note because of the EU's post Brexit policy on free movement to and from the UK being inseparable.
Politics is convoluted, but it isn't boring if one learns how to analyse.
I will stop here for tonight....
n'oublie jamais - It appears I now have to highlight this again.
It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion. By the juice of the brew my thoughts aquire speed, my mind becomes strained, the strain becomes a warning. It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion.
2016/12/23 04:15:09
Subject: Berlin lorry ploughs into Christmas shoppers - possible terror attack
Orlanth wrote: That isn't how terrorism often works. People have to be persuaded to put their lives on the line, often there is a chain of command and leaders want to keep informed and in control for their own egos mostly as many types of attack are brutally simple.
What? I thought were were talking about ISIS infiltrating people into the refugees. In that case all that chain of command stuff and persuading someone to risk their life happens in ISIS territory, and the terrorist just has to execute the attack. A delay makes sense if you're talking about a complex plot like 9/11, but this is a plot that can literally be executed in an hour by anyone with a driver's license and a credit card.
Terrorists often stall if they think they are being monitored or from lack of opportunity.
This also doesn't make much sense. How closely do you think they're being monitored, for anyone to stop a plot that can be executed so quickly? And how can there not be an opportunity for a plot like this? All you need is a crowd of 10-20 people, that's something available everywhere, every day. Just drive into a bus stop around commuting time or whatever.
There is no such thing as a hobby without politics. "Leave politics at the door" is itself a political statement, an endorsement of the status quo and an attempt to silence dissenting voices.
2016/12/23 04:39:38
Subject: Berlin lorry ploughs into Christmas shoppers - possible terror attack
Orlanth wrote: That isn't how terrorism often works. People have to be persuaded to put their lives on the line, often there is a chain of command and leaders want to keep informed and in control for their own egos mostly as many types of attack are brutally simple.
What? I thought were were talking about ISIS infiltrating people into the refugees. In that case all that chain of command stuff and persuading someone to risk their life happens in ISIS territory, and the terrorist just has to execute the attack. A delay makes sense if you're talking about a complex plot like 9/11, but this is a plot that can literally be executed in an hour by anyone with a driver's license and a credit card.
You are missing a factor, or this would be happening on a daily, weekly or at least monthly basis.
There are enough known radicals. Lets gather the data and take a look.
BBC claims there are 850 known British jihadis in Syria about half have returned. Assuming we ca take this report at face value. This means the are enough jihadis to make up to approximately four hundred attacks, and are known to have returned without being imprisoned.
Presumably we still have lorries in the UK and places still unblocked to drive them into crowds, yet there aren't daily ram attacks by jihadis. As we haven't had an attack for a long while, therefore there is some factor stopping there being so.
Automatically Appended Next Post: More news
Well done Aus.
Australian police say they have foiled a terror attack planned for Melbourne on Christmas Day.
Five men are in custody after early-morning raids on Friday, Victoria Police chief Graham Ashton said.
Mr Ashton said the threat involved "use of explosives" and other weapons including "knives or a firearm".
The threat was to prominent city locations including Flinders St Station, Federation Square and St Paul's Cathedral, he said.
Mr Ashton said there was no longer a threat to the public.
Score!
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2016/12/23 04:48:03
n'oublie jamais - It appears I now have to highlight this again.
It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion. By the juice of the brew my thoughts aquire speed, my mind becomes strained, the strain becomes a warning. It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion.
2016/12/23 04:58:54
Subject: Berlin lorry ploughs into Christmas shoppers - possible terror attack
Orlanth wrote: BBC claims there are 850 known British jihadis in Syria about half have returned.
Didn't you just talk about how the returning people are the ones who are sick of fighting and just want to get back to facebook and a safe place to live? You can't really argue that and simultaneously claim that those 400 people are all serious terrorist threats.
As we haven't had an attack for a long while, therefore there is some factor stopping there being so.
And what could that factor be? There isn't a plausible one, so the only reasonable explanation for the lack of attacks is that there just aren't that many terrorists.
There is no such thing as a hobby without politics. "Leave politics at the door" is itself a political statement, an endorsement of the status quo and an attempt to silence dissenting voices.
2016/12/23 08:05:42
Subject: Berlin lorry ploughs into Christmas shoppers - possible terror attack
Orlanth wrote: That isn't how terrorism often works. People have to be persuaded to put their lives on the line, often there is a chain of command and leaders want to keep informed and in control for their own egos mostly as many types of attack are brutally simple.
What? I thought were were talking about ISIS infiltrating people into the refugees. In that case all that chain of command stuff and persuading someone to risk their life happens in ISIS territory, and the terrorist just has to execute the attack. A delay makes sense if you're talking about a complex plot like 9/11, but this is a plot that can literally be executed in an hour by anyone with a driver's license and a credit card.
You are missing a factor, or this would be happening on a daily, weekly or at least monthly basis.
There are enough known radicals. Lets gather the data and take a look.
BBC claims there are 850 known British jihadis in Syria about half have returned. Assuming we ca take this report at face value. This means the are enough jihadis to make up to approximately four hundred attacks, and are known to have returned without being imprisoned.
Presumably we still have lorries in the UK and places still unblocked to drive them into crowds, yet there aren't daily ram attacks by jihadis. As we haven't had an attack for a long while, therefore there is some factor stopping there being so.
Automatically Appended Next Post: More news
Well done Aus.
Australian police say they have foiled a terror attack planned for Melbourne on Christmas Day.
Five men are in custody after early-morning raids on Friday, Victoria Police chief Graham Ashton said.
Mr Ashton said the threat involved "use of explosives" and other weapons including "knives or a firearm".
The threat was to prominent city locations including Flinders St Station, Federation Square and St Paul's Cathedral, he said.
Mr Ashton said there was no longer a threat to the public.
Score!
One question....
Why the hell are this jihadi combat veterans in the UK!
Why even let them return. You chose to enlist to fight for terrorists knowing full well what they did and still went. Each and every one is a security threat. Former ISIS especially. They are potential recruiters, killers and effectively served a terrorist country under arms. Treason anyone?
Excuse me if I say you made your bed, now lie in the blood stained dust.
They should not be back home. Sorry your right to have tea and Netflix ain't worth risk posed to UK as a whole.
Sgt. Vanden - OOC Hey, that was your doing. I didn't choose to fly in the "Dongerprise'.
"May the odds be ever in your favour"
Hybrid Son Of Oxayotl wrote:
I have no clue how Dakka's moderation work. I expect it involves throwing a lot of d100 and looking at many random tables.
FudgeDumper - It could be that you are just so uncomfortable with the idea of your chapters primarch having his way with a docile tyranid spore cyst, that you must deny they have any feelings at all.
2016/12/23 08:42:23
Subject: Berlin lorry ploughs into Christmas shoppers - possible terror attack
Probably because there is a substantial difference between "the intelligence agencies have a reasonable belief that this person was involved with ISIS" and "there is enough evidence to prove in court beyond a reasonable doubt that this person committed criminal acts". We have this thing called the rule of law, where the government can not arbitrarily exile someone from the country just because they think the person might be a threat. The additional risk that is a side effect of this is just the price of living in a civilized country where freedom exists.
There is no such thing as a hobby without politics. "Leave politics at the door" is itself a political statement, an endorsement of the status quo and an attempt to silence dissenting voices.
2016/12/23 09:42:45
Subject: Berlin lorry ploughs into Christmas shoppers in terror attack
We kill them where they hàve no rights.
Blunt but effective.
Sgt. Vanden - OOC Hey, that was your doing. I didn't choose to fly in the "Dongerprise'.
"May the odds be ever in your favour"
Hybrid Son Of Oxayotl wrote:
I have no clue how Dakka's moderation work. I expect it involves throwing a lot of d100 and looking at many random tables.
FudgeDumper - It could be that you are just so uncomfortable with the idea of your chapters primarch having his way with a docile tyranid spore cyst, that you must deny they have any feelings at all.
2016/12/23 11:26:42
Subject: Berlin lorry ploughs into Christmas shoppers in terror attack
We kill them where they hàve no rights.
Blunt but effective.
Not every country has the means or inclination to do so, killing your own citizens with drone strikes sets a dangerous precedent.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2016/12/23 11:28:11
Sorry for my spelling. I'm not a native speaker and a dyslexic.
1750 pts Blood Specters
2000 pts Imperial Fists
6000 pts Disciples of Fate
3500 pts Peridia Prime
2500 pts Prophets of Fate
Lizardmen 3000 points Tlaxcoatl Temple-City
Tomb Kings 1500 points Sekhra (RIP)
2016/12/23 11:49:41
Subject: Berlin lorry ploughs into Christmas shoppers in terror attack
Orlanth wrote: AlmightyWalrus, it is possible the idea for Germany is to repatriate the back to Syrians once Syria is stabilised.
Merkel has likely realised she has made a mistake taking so many, and has in the least realised she has inflamed Germany by dong so and this policy has become her legacy.
1.1 million Syrians is one hell of a lot, even for a nation like germany. When you add the problems with the rapes and lack of integration, and the flat fact that they have been infiltrated; it makes sense to keep the Syrians together so that Germany can say it was their idea all along to let the refugees in for humanitarian relief, feed and cloth them then send them home when the war if over, with a restructuring package.
How many are actually Syrian? I'm seeing a lot of North Africans. This is an economic migration.
Probably because there is a substantial difference between "the intelligence agencies have a reasonable belief that this person was involved with ISIS" and "there is enough evidence to prove in court beyond a reasonable doubt that this person committed criminal acts". We have this thing called the rule of law, where the government can not arbitrarily exile someone from the country just because they think the person might be a threat. The additional risk that is a side effect of this is just the price of living in a civilized country where freedom exists.
Obama didn't need proof beyond a reasonable doubt to drone US citizens in Yemen and Iraq.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2016/12/23 12:23:15
-"Wait a minute.....who is that Frazz is talking to in the gallery? Hmmm something is going on here.....Oh.... it seems there is some dispute over video taping of some sort......Frazz is really upset now..........wait a minute......whats he go there.......is it? Can it be?....Frazz has just unleashed his hidden weiner dog from his mini bag, while quoting shakespeares "Let slip the dogs the war!!" GG
-"Don't mind Frazzled. He's just Dakka's crazy old dude locked in the attic. He's harmless. Mostly."
-TBone the Magnificent 1999-2014, Long Live the King!
2016/12/23 12:58:20
Subject: Berlin lorry ploughs into Christmas shoppers - possible terror attack
Again, what is your reason for assuming so, what are your indications? Every state should take it seriously, that doesn't mean they didn't make a mistake this time.
German non complacency, outside of Merkel and her policy makers can be seen by.
- vetting of the 1.1 million Syrian refugees to the point where they can provide some statistics for the public indicating that vetting is underway. They likely have far far more statistics than the small soundbite provided.
- The fact that despite the first wave of refugees being just let in, post th Cologne rapes the majority are locked into refugee camps on government land.
Yes, it is the balancing act I mentioned. Merkel has to let in the refugees but also protect the public, she needs to win election so they will juggle both.
The first waves were let in because they had already entered Europe, now we pay Turkey to detain them. But to restate the part you had not managed to reply to. Putting refugees into detention camps is just common practice so the government can deal with their application. They have a curfew and can be outside between certain hours. I had a friend once who had to spend six years in one before they finished his paperwork, and this was in the slow period, not the high influx of these few years.
I'm speaking about Europe in general. Again the heaviest attacks have been committed by second and third generation nationals. The man in question now has been in Europe since 2011-2012, you're telling me it took him 4 years to work out how to steal a truck?
That isn't how terrorism often works. People have to be persuaded to put their lives on the line, often there is a chain of command and leaders want to keep informed and in control for their own egos mostly as many types of attack are brutally simple.
Terrorists often stall if they think they are being monitored or from lack of opportunity.
It is hard for a most civilians to just kill someone, it crosses the line in ways some people find more difficult than their time playing computer games would lead them to believe.
Many want to be the big man, not the martyr. They want to be important in their own sub-communities. They want to be the gun not the ammo.
Suicide attacks and high risk attacks are normally only easy with populations whose lives are so downtrodden their best chances is in choosing how to die. Due to the excesses and abuses of licving under Israeli occupation this is a natural logical conclusion for many Palestinians. It is less of a conclusion once living in the EU.
Most of the attackers are first generation. Amri included, he entered Europe in 2012 so how is he second or third generation. It is true that many are, which shows a failure of integration.
You have to be consistent, if there is a chain of command you should be able to monitor which refugees visit those kinds of circles or websites. And for small attacks you want to rely on refugee infiltrators. For bigger ones you need them to get into contact with domestic cells like those in France. Stalling in the case of refugee infiltrators only means that it is more likely you will be discovered unless you go without that chain of command for years.
Suicide attacks are an interesting point. The most studied radicals tend not to be the ones that commit these sort of attacks. They tend to use the chumps from abroad, which includes Europeans going to Syria. Or those refugees linking up with cells here, of the three suicide bombs in Paris, 2/3 were the two and only infiltrators that were smuggled in. It is not necessarily the case of being downtrodden. More of being put in a situation were you know no one and you can't exactly go back on your actions so its easier to pressure you into it. Of course this differs per conflict, but the most religious ones tend not to be the ones most likely to do this themselves.
If we look at the attacks in Europe so far because of France or the Iranian of second generation in Germany we have a much higher percentage of nationals both in participation and body count, these people grew up here. Yet this percentage is still immensely low, however I will expand on this on the next part.
There are also hundreds of German nationals that went to Syria. Why did these people go if its so great in Germany.
they go to jihad from Europe because Allah wills it, and who cares what the infidel Europeans think. lso for some its just an adventure. Notice these jihadis return and want their benefits and social housing and mobile phones and console games. In fact its often why they return.
Yes but some of them are frustrated by not having great succes in Germany and see this as a way out or adventure. It is a crazy outlet for this frustration granted, but that is why you prey on these people, because before you know it you have convinced them to do something like this. It might seem very attractive at first but they are often very disillusioned. This is were the theory of de-radicalization and it being good to go to Syria comes in. There the see the real cost of their Jihad adventure, instead of not seeing it and being able to commit attacks in Europe before having to confront those costs.
Some people just fall outside of the system and feel the need to take out that frustration in this manner.
Dont give me that pissweak excuse. People fed up with society vote for the hard left, or a demagogue like Trump, or joins protests like the 'occupy' movement. They dont go on jihad.
Jihad is not about frustration, jihad is about indoctrination into extreme bigotry to the point that the infidel should be put to death and they join that struggle directly or indirectly.
Your previous answer kind of undermined this one. If they are such crybabies over losing there creature comforts once there you cant pretend they are hardened warriors putting up with hardship for there religious indoctrinate beliefs. I'm not saying they aren't indoctrinated, which would be silly of me, I'm saying this frustration gives the opening the truly evil people need to exploit them. Once you set them on that path it is very difficult to get them back of as they know they will not be accepted back in society. They keep heading off on the path that their frustration set them off because it got too dark without them noticing to turn back.
Again you're relying on some random number. Its like Rumsfeld's unknown unknowns.
Sorry no its not. You dont understand what analysts do. They don't just process data, they also process from a void of data, its called extrapolation, not blind guessing
Sorry but no, I understand what analysts do. But we both don't have any of that classified data, so you're in essence guessing blindly. I'm relying on what little and possibly flawed evidence there is.
Of course refugees and immigrants should be monitored, but so should the native population. The difficulty is establishing how many the intelligence agencies actually catch compared to the real numbers, but so far we have no evidence of it being a large number.
That is relatively easy. Interpol has a file on everyone, that is common knowledge by the 70's. So they have a file on you, and me. Now natural Europeans of any nationality have a history, there will be some exceptions, but most have birth certificates, medical records tax statements etc etc. It doesn't take much to see if you or I are security threats, and we wont be unless we join dodgy websites or visit extremist organisations or sign up to certain activities organised by said organisations. Start working in a neo-Nazi or revolutionary communist bookshop and you will get flagged quite quickly. Start posting on Stormfront or a Jihadi website and likewise.
But keeping up current records on everyone is a logistical nightmare that they don't have the resources for. If I had any ideas of doing something and knowing frustrated people in person there are many encrypted messaging apps now that security agencies worry about. And like Peregrine said, all it takes now is some money and a drivers license unfortunately.
Soothing words of propaganda? Look at your comments, you're basically saying that everyone of those refugees could be a terrorist in disguise.
He learns! Evidently the German state security is of the same opinion. Which is why they are still locked into a disused airport and similar sites.
See my answer further up, detaining them on sites is normal procedure, we don't want them running around when we still need to process there asylum application.
I could say that every Dutch or German person I meet is a murderer in disguise. This is why evidence and numbers matter, we have the data to show that no, most of them aren't.
Not the same thing.
It sounds similar enough, basically going back on that current data shows the native population to be more dangerous.
Yet you insist I'm looking at it from a skewed perspective?
Indeed. Mainly becasue you are labouring on a false conclusion based on the one piece of government data you have provided this thread. That only four formerly active jihadis were found in the 1.1 million Syrian refugees.
In fairness to you, you have drawn the soothing conclusion you were supposed to when that propaganda statistic was released.
Its still a skewed perspective, when looking at that number and what it actually represents, and then look at the fact that the German government has decided they cant risk releasing those people into the community you should be able to see that that is ill news not good news.
This was not released. These four people all managed to attack! If it was soothing data they could make up some random number they say they caught before anything happened. This is the opposite of propaganda unless you're arguing they let these attacks happen?
Here is a better list from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime compiled by the World Bank: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 It has newer data showing it is close to 1 in 100.000 now. Not that much different overall.
Different figures, broadly similar though, but admittedly more recent. There are two dips in the German crime stats in the last decade, both to near zero crime. Methinks this is more to do with missing statistical data than a sudden lovefest.
Hard to say, but when you deal with such low number as 10 in a million it is easy for it to fluctuate wildly once in a while.
So you're saying that because these Syrians might possibly commit murders at the same rate as German nationals that this is a problem? Syria and Germany are completely different countries. Lets get your Turkey analogy back. The rate in Turkey is 4 per 100.000, yet it was never mentioned that the Turks in Germany went on murder sprees that were bigger than those of native Germans.
Not mentioned. So we don't know. however in many countries even collecting ethnic based crime statistics is considered devisive. Progressives in the Uk and US have a hissy fit over it frequently, and government sometimes flatly don't include the data to protect against offending sentiments.
It gets worse when rape stats are deliberate skewed as has occured in Sweden to falsify statistics and spare the public debate about the awful state of affairs. Germany has to a lesser extent faced the same temptation and so has the UK. In fact New Labour was notorious for this. It is not supirsing that the two largest known cases of long term ethnic abuses the Birmingham child indictrinations at Islamified schools and the Rotherham mass rapes only got challened not by s revelation that they were occurring but by a change of government to one which would not sweep the excesses under the carpet.
When wanting to get a good perception on crimes committed by what part of the population I find it convenient to look at prison numbers, they frequently include ethnic background, although those numbers are subjected to other issues such as socioeconomics.
I think Sweden has been discussed enough without us having to go over that again. I will reply to Germany further down where you asked for the statistics again. The trouble with alleged cover ups is that again we go into a world where numbers don't matter and the sky is the limit.
Apologies, I indeed referred to those with a German passport or nationals. It is a smaller problem in Germany than in the UK, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, but a problem non the less. The issue I was bringing up is that we don't have clear ways of dealing with those who return, as a lack of evidence (although intelligence agencies frequently know) means we can't convict them for participation in terrorist organizations. Just last Tuesday the Dutch agencies announced that they don't have enough time, people or funds to even keep a proper eye on these nationals, yet we haven't had an attack yet. Is that dumb luck, quite possibly. Has it been dumb luck for Germany so far? Again, possibly.
Again you need to read between the lines. We know a lot about disillusioned jihadis returning to the Uk. Not so much about prosecutions. Imprisoning a jihadi on their return doesnt do much, just further radicalises and hardens them. Prison hardens people and when they come out they will be a serious threat, not a minor threat. So you have to give them life tarrifs, which is hard to do for what you have on them, or let them go.
But look at the emphasis, a lot of information about jihadis finding that they cant get Facebook and have to do the laundry etc etc woe is me. To them jihad sucks. The last thing you want to do is imprison someone like that and harden them. You want to release them to tell their friends back in the their communities how much it sucked to be on jihad away from their creature comforts.
I think this is the message being encouraged.
I agree we should not imprison these people, unless there is clear cut evidence these people have participated in violence. For those who seem to want to commit violence here prison combined with mental help certainly should be put forward. Here we can detain someone indefinitely if they are put up for what we call TBS, which you have to be sentenced to. It is basically institutionalizing those that are deemed too dangerous because of mental, like serial killers, or other problems and unless these people show progress they won't be released as they are a threat to the public. Sometimes TBS makes a mistake and the person that is allowed probation kills someone, but in general the system works.
Yes going back to your point about it sucking, I reach back to my theory. It seems that for many going to Syria dispels any notions of actually wanting to participate further once back.
Yes that is the problem. The issue with terrorism is that it works on such a psychological fear of us as Europeans that it is easy to overreact. I'm not saying you do, but there are plenty of people and media willing to provoke that fear further.
The fear is caused by the atrocities perpetrated, whether mass rapes or bombings or lorry ramming.
Nothing is honestly gained by glossing over the atrocities in order to salve the consciences of the progressives who want to retain the illusion that everything is fine in our tolerant multi-cultural societies.
To ask the hard question: How many Rotherham kids should be raped and discarded to protect the public from the truth that there are serious problems with lack of ethnic integration in the UK. Yes it hyperboric but I want to you try and put a number to it. In a way New Labour did when they allowed the police to shut down angry parents and let paedophile attackers go free because they didn want any ethnic divisions. This is doubly sickening because child rape is the main taboo we have left in our anything goes society.
But that fear is increased incredibly by media attention. Same as how Jaws made everyone terrified of sharks and those sharks in the deep end of the pool. Yet that sense of fear is completely out of proportion with the actual number of attacks. People run red lights constantly yet are afraid of terrorism, while one is a much more deadly habit. We don't have to gloss over the terrible events that do happen, but we don't need to pretend one of those events is waiting around every corner.
To give the hard answer, no information should be covered up and those who do should be punished. At the same time we should try to have a realistic debate on how to solve our problems without creating imaginary ones to solve through hyperbole.
Of course once they radicalize it might be too late, although heavy surveillance by both social and intelligence groups can provide an avenue to de-radicalize.
You mean contain. You cant de-radicalize, they either stop being radicals of their own accord or they leave or die. Its not a short term problem.
Let in Islamic radicals and you have a long term problem, our political elite in Europe are not set up to handle the long term problems. To them long term means next election, to some next financial quarter.
But this goes back to our discussion about those being disillusioned in Syria and wanting to go back. I feel like we should establish what we mean as the threshold of radicalized. I consider it going to Syria but you seem to consider committing violence, fair enough. Those that already committed violence should be imprisoned and attempted to rehabilitate, if not than our system has a means to hold these people for life. I think this is something we have to get used to, violent individuals who can't be rehabilitated and some states still need to adapt to that ever present reality.
If not then prison or an institution is always a resort to lock up those to dangerous to function in society.
If you prison jihadis you have to choose one of three options.
1. Kill them or otherwise allow them to die.
2. Give them life tarrifs.
3. Dedicate a team of intelligence professionals to keep constant tabs on them after release.
European prisons harden the incarcerated. If someone is radicalised and hardened they are a very serious threat.
i think were starting to go into circles. Again we have to decide what the point of no return is for these people and decide on the options accordingly.
Again, look at the German rape statistics I quoted, it is not different from the national average..
Forgive me if I missed them but I dont know of any rape statistics you have quoted.
Also note that some European countries have falsified their rape statistics and been caught doing so.
If that is hard to believe look at Rotherham. Sometimes the horrible stories are actually true, and government s have taken thr cowards way out and allowed gross excesses even to the most vulnerable to preserve politically correct dogmas.
I posted them three times but it might be hard to see as I put them in a qoute, here it is without: Recent numbers from Germany’s Federal Criminal Police Agency (BKA) suggest that the influx of refugees into the country this fall had a low impact on crime numbers relative to the natural uptick that would happen with any population increase: Although the number of refugees in the country increased by 440 percent between 2014 and 2015, the number of crimes committed by refugees only increased by 79 percent. (The number of crimes against refugees increased as well.) Furthermore, according to Deutsche Welle’s analysis of the report, the number of offenses increased in the first half of 2015 but “stagnated” in the second half, precisely when most of the refugees were arriving and the rumor mill switched into overdrive. And although sexual offenses account for over 25 percent of the rumors on the Hoaxmap, the BKA data showed that only 1 percent of refugee-related crimes fell into the sexual offense category.
Lets go over that article. It mentions large scale sexual assault yet it only has the case of Cologne to back this up and it goes on further to cite a tabloid. Again this is not really based on evidence but rumours and one event. Of course we should investigate if these rumours have a point. But statistical data of other European countries with refugees compared to Germany and Sweden don't show much difference.
Media always tries to spin it, only very few don't, but with sales as is they all tend to rely on click-baitey articles. That's why I just tend to go to government publications for the statistics.
Fair enough, but now you should know better. Our governments do lie, and that isn't tinfoil hat talking, that is flat fact proven because of changes of government releasing changes of policy that allows the truth of excesses to be uncovered. Rotherham and Birmingham again. hough in both those cases the truth revelation was limited, prosecutions have happened and excesses curtailed, but even so these stories have not had full impact, and likely never will.
Of course they lie at times, but it is difficult to fudge the numbers on official police reports unless we start arguing that they ignore victims that come to them to further the political agenda. So far we have come up with two cases, which are horrible, in the UK that are somehow meant to be representative of Europe as a whole. Besides even if those reports aren't fully accurate there is also something to say for under reporting of rape and sexual assault in the native population, the numbers just aren't that different.
I know that the UK media is particularly divisive in a way the Dutch media hasn't reached yet, there are a few attempts however.
I dont know. But what do you mean by divisive?
Printing 'right wing lies'
or printing progressive politically correct lies.
The Dutch media has had a taste of how bad it can get, and even had a name for it at the time: 'Education by death' which came to the fore after the murder of Theo van Gogh for daring to practice freedom of expression in the Netherlands. It wasn't just a shooting by a crazy. There is more to it than that.
It appears from our conversation that education by death was shortlived. Many Dutch people don't want to be educated about the true of Islamic radicalism. Otherwise they wouldn't be so hard on Wilders and so easy on Islamic fundamentalism.
Islamic fundamentalists don't want to share Europe with the likes of you and me, they want us to be tolerant, and laugh at our backs when we do. They have no intention of reciprocating. We don't have free speech or right to our traditions, customs or way of life in our own lands if it offends their beliefs. Sharia says so, and they respect Sharia more than our laws and customs; and, if they can, may enact the death penalties on our citizenry for breaking taboos proscribed in Sharia whether Europe embraces Sharia code or not, and whether or not our own law and custom offers protection to the contrary. That is 'education by death'.
As in covering a large amount of the political spectrum, that almost automatically results in divisive reporting going from one to the other end, not by design on each other, just by what they choose to cover. Our larger media tends to hover more around the center left with only small publications really going outside of this for now.
Theo van Gogh's murder was terrible, to be fair even a large amount of the Dutch thought he was using freedom of speech to make disgusting things when he was still alive. On the other end we have a left winger killing Pim Fortuyn, our Trump for using his free speech that was equally disturbing. We have two examples of ideologically motivated murder, one by the radical left wing and one by a radical Muslim.
Our problem isn't so much with Wilders 'telling it as it is'. It has more to do with advocating camps and deporting all Muslims even those that are Dutch. We had him leading chants of "less Moroccans here", you know those third generation Dutch Moroccans. I will let you fill in the blanks on how they will achieve less of them here. Besides that his economic ideas are of Trump level dreams of the unrealistic. Wilders just doesn't have a grasp on reality, he is just the counter culture party.
We have to combat sharia as it conflicts with our legal system, as such we are doing a good job and advocates for introducing that system are far and few in between usually coming from Belgium to the Netherlands.
Again look at the government statistics on rape, why would independent organisations bother to lie, they just report the crimes that get reported. You can't say its difficult to keep the lid on it and at the same time have the statistics show that no lid is being lifted or that the lid doesn't even exist. That's conspiracy level stuff.
Ok. Please provide them again. Also I will remain sceptical. The claims that European governemnt have been massaging rape statistics is multiply soruced and has been noted in the mainstream press worldwide.
We also have Rotherham to go back on as proof. Yes that isn't in Germany or Sweden but it shows how far a progressive regime in a European country might go to cover up Islamic rape gangs.
Yes I do believe the stories that rape culture is covered up. We have a lot of credible eye witness evidence from victims.
I provide them a bit up. Yet all you can provide for massaging facts is right wing newspapers who don't go into the fact that regular rape statistics are also underrepresented. If both have a real number to report what's to say they aren't still equally close? Its a bit circular again thoug.
Again it is difficult to know which of the two happened in Germany. In truth we will likely not find out for years unless a Paris level attack occurs and German agencies are forced to grovel in public like the French.
7/7 was as bad as Paris and our government and intelligence services didnt grovel.
Your agencies might have been preforming better or it was judged that 7/7 happened due to no attributable flaw in the British system. France was just on a whole other level of amateur actions that they could not hide from the public after this. The fact is Berlin is not anywhere near the level of London or France, so even if the German process is somehow flawed they might not feel pressured to come out yet.
Are we talking about the same refugee problem? You know, the one of the Syrian Muslims fleeing there country for Germany?
Sometimes.
Also talking about the issues in broader detail. The rape culture has less to do with the Syrian refugee than the problem as a whole, though there are connexions. Likewise with terror threats.
Again it is difficult to prove this rape culture and it has been argued that we have very many of those same problems. My reference to discussing the same problem was more aimed at the later AfD quote though.
The AfD is using nothing but euphemisms that the nationalist crowd responds to. Most right wing parties tend to say Muslim immigrants, but they still won't let christian Africans crossing from Libya in.
Not fair. What do you think would happen if the EU was to say to Libyan refugees waiting, 'we will only take the Christians'.
That's not what I meant, I meant that parties such as those of Wilders, the AfD and Front National seem to have more problems with Muslim refugees than Christian. Our current governments try to be consistent in their approach however flawed one might think it is.
Even they don't hold a strict difference, here you have it from the horse's mouth:
Beatrix von Storch, a German MEP, and vice chair for the AfD Party, told Radio 4's The World at One that "it is not possible to let in so many refugees" and "as far we know the terrorist was one of them".
I await your reply to tell me in which part of this sentence she mentions Muslims.
There are quite reasonable and non racist anti refugee concerns. I mentioned some of the arguments earlier, notably that European countires are already overpopulated, and that our social care system is overburdened.
the main pressure for more immigration comes from three sources. First the bleeding heart liberals or wooly lefties who will not be satisfied unless we cover every piece of land in more housing so that refugees have somewhere to stay. Some of those people are merely naive, others are out and out dogmatised. Corbyn is in the latter category.
The second and real pressure group are business owners who want immigrants to drive down wages. This is for short term personal gain. They don't think that we already have unemployed we can employ, and adding to our population means greater burdens on our infrastructure and welfare systems. But thats tomorrows problems, and the business owners don't care about that, they want cheaper labour now, and more profits now.
The third most insidious source are from political parties who want to encourage immigration to change voter demographics. Those parties like to encourage settlement in specific areas to change vote patterns, and can do so by encouraging housebuilding in those areas and sepoecting who the housebuilding is for. New Labour did this a lot. Its less of a problem in most of the rest of Europe where there is PR.
But every time something like this happens they point at refugees in general and not Muslim refugees as you said. They generalize and talk around the subject so as not to get caught in the aha moments, but we all know what they are really saying: refugees=terrorists. European countries are not full and I can write a book on why European social systems are collapsing, suffice to say that generation X and the babyboomers were living on checks the birth rate wasn't going to be able to cash. There just isn't enough money to keep up those social systems regardless of refugees and at least these refugees can help with some of these demographic problems to ensure the millennials don't have to work until they are 90 to fix the budget hole made by overgenerous social systems. Here we use the immigrant where there used to be Poles that are now too expensive. these are jobs no Dutch person wants to do. When we tried to make them do those jobs as they were on unemployment there was such an uproar from them we had to cancel, which is freaking crazy. We offered them jobs, but they would rather stay in unemployment!!! I can't really comment on voter demographic a both the German and Dutch national system works with multiple parties and as such any result of immigration of elections will be negligible at best. I know it is easier in the UK system to influence the national level on the local one, but that is a very specific issue.
I know you don't have the actual facts and neither do I. I'm just arguing that going on the facts we have is better than stumbling around blind, you get better policy.
Ok. I am not stumbling around blind, and you need not be eirther. You are clearly educated and intelligent. Learn how to analyse, you are not an end user of facts, you are a processor of facts. You can think for yourself. Dont get your opinions from a press release, get your information form a press release and your opinion from your mulling over what you read. Preferably multiple sourced.
And that doesn't mean thinkerz vs sheeple. Analysis is not tinfoil conspiracy, its a natural consequence of the inquiring mind and shounldn't be belittled. Think for yourself. There is football and soap operas and reality TV galore for those who dont. It is why its so important, and that sort of prolefeed has been part of politics since the ludi magni.
If this makes you uncomfortable, perhaps good but start with something easy. Analysis is a major part of history. We have limited info to go by, just slender picking of surviving documentation and what archeologists dig up, and we cant ask the Hittite or Athenian or Saxon governments for data. We have to think for ourselves. Compare what we read and see, look for holes, look for what reports are not saying, reading propaganda for what it is etc etc. There is a lot of assessment, but it isn't guesswork or blind assumption but reasoned conclusion. You will be surprised what we can work out from extrapolation, and yes while we do get bits wrong and theories change our knowledge improves even though events are receeding further in time.
Political analysis is no different. A good analyst can and will assess based on data or a lack of data. Often a void of usable data in an information rich society like our own gives off information of itself. Many analysts make a good rep out of this if they do a good job. You don't need to sit and wait for data on controversial issues like a chick in a nest mouth open waiting to be fed. You can get up and find it yourself. Yes more data is better, but there is a lot to notice just by comparison of known events. If you get good at it you can have a rep for reading a lot of truth out of a little data or reading the kernel of good info hidden in bad data and your opinions will be held with merit.
I am analysing the data we have and rest assured I'm extensively trained in the practice. We just take different conclusions from the data we don't have and that is fine, eventually time will prove one of us wrong. I'm just sourcing the best available which is government and police data.
Of course it comes off as a bit 'lame' that I ask for something to back up your statement you cant acces. But were both arguing the other one is wrong based on those missing or partially facts. Were the pot and the kettle by now.
This is when it becomes the battleground of the mind. Think assess extrapolate, and for the record that doesn't mean agree with me. You can work with the same very limited dataset, asses extrapolate and come to a set of conclusions that is different from my own and discredits my position enough to force me to reassess my theories. If we are working analysis this contrariness is considered a good thing, as we each have evidently different paradigms and by feeding off each others arguments we have a better chance of working out what is really going on.
Too many Dakkaites handwave away analytical opinion, and want to be spoodfed data to swallow, often data that isnt available or is just consumed without through and regurgitated as opinion.
I realize very well that were not going to agree with each other, that much was clear when we took hours to write responses. We just debate why we come to different conclusions and let anyone who is still reading this decide which argument they find more compelling.
I take issue with the fact that you think all European governments are manipulating data to present refugees as less of a danger, as you would think committing terrorist attacks is hard to conceal.
I didn't say all. It is very evident New Labour UK government did exactly that, I express such as a fact. There is evidence that Sweden and Germany have done so, but that is not conclusive. I have no opinion on other countries in Europe, I havent looked into them much with regards to this issue, except the situation in Hungary, and I do admit t not looking for evidence of rape culture in Hungary, I only took interest in the fact they closed their borders and the consequences of doing so with the EU bureaucracy, which was surprisingly little, and of note because of the EU's post Brexit policy on free movement to and from the UK being inseparable.
Politics is convoluted, but it isn't boring if one learns how to analyse.
I will stop here for tonight....
Hungary is a very different case. It is one of the most extreme outliers in Europe with a very right wing government. If anyone in Europe manipulates statistics it is most likely Hungary who has been trying to curb the freedom of the press.
EU bureaucracy might be supranational on some levels. But it is far too small to handle what it is assigned to do so it usually leaves more difficult problems up to the leading nations in the EU such as the Eurozone Crisis and the Refugee influx. Brexit is quite different because it is not a temporary suspension of the core EU values, it is the UK pondering out loud if it can have its cake and eat it too which is why the EU is so involved. Cards on the table, I'm pro EU as you will have likely guessed. But call me cynical, it is mighty convenient to have the EU as an attack dog on Brexit issues so close to major elections where you don't really want to be seen as that party bashing the democratic process over there because you don't agree with it (voters might get the idea you don't like the process as much when it doesn't go your way).
Orlanth wrote: AlmightyWalrus, it is possible the idea for Germany is to repatriate the back to Syrians once Syria is stabilised.
Merkel has likely realised she has made a mistake taking so many, and has in the least realised she has inflamed Germany by dong so and this policy has become her legacy.
1.1 million Syrians is one hell of a lot, even for a nation like germany. When you add the problems with the rapes and lack of integration, and the flat fact that they have been infiltrated; it makes sense to keep the Syrians together so that Germany can say it was their idea all along to let the refugees in for humanitarian relief, feed and cloth them then send them home when the war if over, with a restructuring package.
How many are actually Syrian? I'm seeing a lot of North Africans. This is an economic migration.
Going on rough numbers most of them are Syrians, Afghans and Iraqis. People coming into the EU from Kosovo and Albania in Europe outnumber those from Africa almost two to one. So it is not as significant as you might think. Of course a lot that use the boat from North Africa are also the refugees from conflict looking for a route in now that Turkey clamped down on the 'easier' crossing to Greece. Its just that those North Africans get an inordinate amount of media attention because their boats tend to sink once every while creating an inflated view.
You can find some good info here from august: http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/08/02/number-of-refugees-to-europe-surges-to-record-1-3-million-in-2015/
Automatically Appended Next Post: Important thing to add from that research for those claiming we do too much:
Although Europe has received a large number of Syrian asylum seekers since the Syrian conflict began, only about one-in-ten displaced Syrians worldwide are living in Europe. The vast majority is internally displaced within Syria or is living as refugees in countries that border Syria.
Sites like amnesty and the EU all have numbers for Syrian refugees and where they are, it is quite easy to find that Europe is not taking in an inordinate amount of people.
This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2016/12/23 13:09:08
Sorry for my spelling. I'm not a native speaker and a dyslexic.
1750 pts Blood Specters
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2016/12/23 13:53:09
Subject: Berlin lorry ploughs into Christmas shoppers - possible terror attack
ZergSmasher wrote: This is why those European countries need to stop taking in more of those refugees. They're practically inviting radical Muslim terrorists into their countries where they can then run amok. If Germany had just said no to those refugees, 12 people would likely still be alive today.
They'd also be alive today if you lot hadn't been mass murdering muslims for decades now.
Muslims have been mass murdering infidels for centuries if you want to go down the "nuh uh, you started it!" route.
Your statement is also a perfect example of selective application of transitive guilt.
Nice buzzword. What's the buzzword for not being able to understand cause and effect?
The old meta is dead and the new meta struggles to be born. Now is the time of munchkins.
2016/12/23 13:56:40
Subject: Berlin lorry ploughs into Christmas shoppers - possible terror attack
It gets worse when rape stats are deliberate skewed as has occured in Sweden to falsify statistics and spare the public debate about the awful state of affairs.
You're going to have to provide a very good citation to prove that claim or I'm just going to assume that you're talking out your ass again like the last three times this BS showed up.
For thirteen years I had a dog with fur the darkest black. For thirteen years he was my friend, oh how I want him back.
2016/12/23 14:22:23
Subject: Berlin lorry ploughs into Christmas shoppers in terror attack
Orlanth wrote: AlmightyWalrus, it is possible the idea for Germany is to repatriate the back to Syrians once Syria is stabilised.
Merkel has likely realised she has made a mistake taking so many, and has in the least realised she has inflamed Germany by dong so and this policy has become her legacy.
1.1 million Syrians is one hell of a lot, even for a nation like germany. When you add the problems with the rapes and lack of integration, and the flat fact that they have been infiltrated; it makes sense to keep the Syrians together so that Germany can say it was their idea all along to let the refugees in for humanitarian relief, feed and cloth them then send them home when the war if over, with a restructuring package.
How many are actually Syrian? I'm seeing a lot of North Africans. This is an economic migration.
Probably because there is a substantial difference between "the intelligence agencies have a reasonable belief that this person was involved with ISIS" and "there is enough evidence to prove in court beyond a reasonable doubt that this person committed criminal acts". We have this thing called the rule of law, where the government can not arbitrarily exile someone from the country just because they think the person might be a threat. The additional risk that is a side effect of this is just the price of living in a civilized country where freedom exists.
Obama didn't need proof beyond a reasonable doubt to drone US citizens in Yemen and Iraq.
Honestly... Some people there is no hope. There is no rehab. What where we ever gonna do with jibadi john alive?
There enemy combatants. They just happen to be American, Brittish.. There in a war zone. They are legal targets.
We end them same as any scumbag terrorists.
Our enemies would end us ... We have to end them First.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2016/12/23 14:25:51
Sgt. Vanden - OOC Hey, that was your doing. I didn't choose to fly in the "Dongerprise'.
"May the odds be ever in your favour"
Hybrid Son Of Oxayotl wrote:
I have no clue how Dakka's moderation work. I expect it involves throwing a lot of d100 and looking at many random tables.
FudgeDumper - It could be that you are just so uncomfortable with the idea of your chapters primarch having his way with a docile tyranid spore cyst, that you must deny they have any feelings at all.
2016/12/23 16:38:27
Subject: Berlin lorry ploughs into Christmas shoppers in terror attack
Honestly... Some people there is no hope. There is no rehab. What where we ever gonna do with jibadi john alive?
There enemy combatants. They just happen to be American, Brittish.. There in a war zone. They are legal targets.
We end them same as any scumbag terrorists.
Our enemies would end us ... We have to end them First.
There is no due process, either. You just believe your government, with all its long history of proven lying, cheating and murdering, when it declares them enemies and kills them.
The old meta is dead and the new meta struggles to be born. Now is the time of munchkins.
2016/12/23 16:41:16
Subject: Berlin lorry ploughs into Christmas shoppers in terror attack
Honestly... Some people there is no hope. There is no rehab. What where we ever gonna do with jibadi john alive?
There enemy combatants. They just happen to be American, Brittish.. There in a war zone. They are legal targets.
We end them same as any scumbag terrorists.
Our enemies would end us ... We have to end them First.
There is no due process, either. You just believe your government, with all its long history of proven lying, cheating and murdering, when it declares them enemies and kills them.
Lets be honest. If your in Syria... Your likely not there for a good reason. If your near a frontline even less.
The odds on random backpackers going on a tour is not exactly high...
Sgt. Vanden - OOC Hey, that was your doing. I didn't choose to fly in the "Dongerprise'.
"May the odds be ever in your favour"
Hybrid Son Of Oxayotl wrote:
I have no clue how Dakka's moderation work. I expect it involves throwing a lot of d100 and looking at many random tables.
FudgeDumper - It could be that you are just so uncomfortable with the idea of your chapters primarch having his way with a docile tyranid spore cyst, that you must deny they have any feelings at all.
2016/12/23 16:49:38
Subject: Berlin lorry ploughs into Christmas shoppers in terror attack
Honestly... Some people there is no hope. There is no rehab. What where we ever gonna do with jibadi john alive? There enemy combatants. They just happen to be American, Brittish.. There in a war zone. They are legal targets.
We end them same as any scumbag terrorists. Our enemies would end us ... We have to end them First.
There is no due process, either. You just believe your government, with all its long history of proven lying, cheating and murdering, when it declares them enemies and kills them.
Lets be honest. If your in Syria... Your likely not there for a good reason. If your near a frontline even less. The odds on random backpackers going on a tour is not exactly high...
Well, unless they're foreign aid workers, in which case there is a high likelihood of them being near a frontline and in Syria.
Also, visiting a country in the midst of a civil war may not be advisable but it is not illegal. Unless the government has evidence of this person engaging in fighting then there is no justification for killing them, and certainly not until they present that evidence in a court of law where it can be examined and questioned.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2016/12/23 16:50:08
The Laws of Thermodynamics:
1) You cannot win. 2) You cannot break even. 3) You cannot stop playing the game.
Colonel Flagg wrote:You think you're real smart. But you're not smart; you're dumb. Very dumb. But you've met your match in me.
2016/12/23 16:55:30
Subject: Berlin lorry ploughs into Christmas shoppers in terror attack
CptJake wrote: Interestingly enough, the rules of evidence don't really come into play on the battlefield.
Sensor IDs a guy with weapon you can cap him. A convoy carrying supplies to bad guys? You can blow it to hell.
Its interesting how I don't thats in any way legal against US citizens.
-"Wait a minute.....who is that Frazz is talking to in the gallery? Hmmm something is going on here.....Oh.... it seems there is some dispute over video taping of some sort......Frazz is really upset now..........wait a minute......whats he go there.......is it? Can it be?....Frazz has just unleashed his hidden weiner dog from his mini bag, while quoting shakespeares "Let slip the dogs the war!!" GG
-"Don't mind Frazzled. He's just Dakka's crazy old dude locked in the attic. He's harmless. Mostly."
-TBone the Magnificent 1999-2014, Long Live the King!
2016/12/23 17:29:43
Subject: Berlin lorry ploughs into Christmas shoppers in terror attack
CptJake wrote: Interestingly enough, the rules of evidence don't really come into play on the battlefield.
Sensor IDs a guy with weapon you can cap him. A convoy carrying supplies to bad guys? You can blow it to hell.
Its interesting how I don't thats in any way legal against US citizens.
It absolutely is. There is zero requirement to check nationality before pulling a trigger or pushing a button.
Where you are confused (and maybe it is because I was not clear) is that I am talking about an area of operations the US military (or other agencies) are authorized to conduct military operations. Remember 'the American Taliban' John Walker Lindh? The guys who wounded and captured him could as easily have capped him during the battle of Qala-i-Jangi. If he had died of wounds or been out right killed there would have been zero legal issues. He chose to arm himself and fight against US personnel in a conflict zone. He was lucky he was not killed, and when IDed as a US citizen found his way into a fed pen.
In another case, Adam Gadahn got himself capped. He was not specifically targeted, but he was in a target that got hit. Again, no legal issues what so ever.
What legal issues do you see in those? Are you suggesting nationalities of targets need to be checked before our guys shoot?
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2016/12/23 17:38:59
Every time a terrorist dies a Paratrooper gets his wings.
2016/12/23 17:31:42
Subject: Berlin lorry ploughs into Christmas shoppers in terror attack
We used to hang traitors who assisted other forces against our own country. Now people wring their hands about even firing upon such people even in combat or running supplies to terrorists.
2016/12/23 17:37:59
Subject: Berlin lorry ploughs into Christmas shoppers in terror attack
Howard A Treesong wrote: We used to hang traitors who assisted other forces against our own country. Now people wring their hands about even firing upon such people even in combat or running supplies to terrorists.
We also used to force people to undergo hormone therapy for being gay, what's your point? That we should drop our pursuit of the right to justice and law just because someone is doing something detrimental to our country? Murder is detrimental to our country yet we still require the state to prove that someone is guilty, in an impartial courtroom, before they enact punishment.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2016/12/23 17:49:07
The Laws of Thermodynamics:
1) You cannot win. 2) You cannot break even. 3) You cannot stop playing the game.
Colonel Flagg wrote:You think you're real smart. But you're not smart; you're dumb. Very dumb. But you've met your match in me.
2016/12/23 17:45:03
Subject: Berlin lorry ploughs into Christmas shoppers in terror attack
CptJake wrote: Interestingly enough, the rules of evidence don't really come into play on the battlefield.
Sensor IDs a guy with weapon you can cap him. A convoy carrying supplies to bad guys? You can blow it to hell.
Its interesting how I don't thats in any way legal against US citizens.
When was the declaration of war?
The 4th Amendment would like to slap you in the ass and tell you its raining.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
Howard A Treesong wrote: We used to hang traitors who assisted other forces against our own country. Now people wring their hands about even firing upon such people even in combat or running supplies to terrorists.
We also used to declare war when we went to war.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2016/12/23 17:45:56
-"Wait a minute.....who is that Frazz is talking to in the gallery? Hmmm something is going on here.....Oh.... it seems there is some dispute over video taping of some sort......Frazz is really upset now..........wait a minute......whats he go there.......is it? Can it be?....Frazz has just unleashed his hidden weiner dog from his mini bag, while quoting shakespeares "Let slip the dogs the war!!" GG
-"Don't mind Frazzled. He's just Dakka's crazy old dude locked in the attic. He's harmless. Mostly."
-TBone the Magnificent 1999-2014, Long Live the King!
2016/12/23 17:48:37
Subject: Berlin lorry ploughs into Christmas shoppers in terror attack
If there a enemy holding a gun or supporting a enemy. Where they come from means nothing. They are a enemy. You kill them.
If they are a enemy officer, or propoganda figure there simply a target.
Enemy is a enemy. Semantics we cannot kill a enemy as they are of our country. There a enemy. Wr can kill them.
Enemy combatant is a combatant if American... Or British, or wherever there from.
Sgt. Vanden - OOC Hey, that was your doing. I didn't choose to fly in the "Dongerprise'.
"May the odds be ever in your favour"
Hybrid Son Of Oxayotl wrote:
I have no clue how Dakka's moderation work. I expect it involves throwing a lot of d100 and looking at many random tables.
FudgeDumper - It could be that you are just so uncomfortable with the idea of your chapters primarch having his way with a docile tyranid spore cyst, that you must deny they have any feelings at all.
2016/12/23 17:49:45
Subject: Berlin lorry ploughs into Christmas shoppers in terror attack
jhe90 wrote: If there a enemy holding a gun or supporting a enemy. Where they come from means nothing. They are a enemy. You kill them.
.
Mmm do they not have warrants and due process in your country?
Are you comfortable that your country can kill you based on, well nothing, if it wants?
How would you feel if that power rested with D Trump?
Because hey in 30 days, it does.
-"Wait a minute.....who is that Frazz is talking to in the gallery? Hmmm something is going on here.....Oh.... it seems there is some dispute over video taping of some sort......Frazz is really upset now..........wait a minute......whats he go there.......is it? Can it be?....Frazz has just unleashed his hidden weiner dog from his mini bag, while quoting shakespeares "Let slip the dogs the war!!" GG
-"Don't mind Frazzled. He's just Dakka's crazy old dude locked in the attic. He's harmless. Mostly."
-TBone the Magnificent 1999-2014, Long Live the King!
The leading cause for homegrown radicalization is the inability and difficulty that second or third generation immigrants have in functioning in society, there are still issues of racism towards employment and less viable chances overall in life. These people radicalize cause they see it as there only way out and are in one way or another desperate, not because they are not integrated. 
Its just that we don't know anything about the iceberg and we can fight all day about how much is under the water, all we can really say is how much is visible, which is four people. And again, we have no idea how many they found as these were the successful ones.
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