Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you: No adverts like this in the forums anymore. Times and dates in your local timezone. Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance. Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely. Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net. If you are already a member then feel free to login now.

 jmurph wrote:
Well, now Iran is moving warships around and Qatar is moving tanks out of storage.

Qatar had formerly been pretty independent compared to the rest of the GCC (Gulf Cooperative Council), but a big trigger seems to be the fake news, suspected to be planted by the Russians who just happen to be the world's largest natural gas producer. Guess who is #2.

It is also interesting timing considering the reception of Trump in Riyadh, despite his anti-Muslim comments. The Saudis seem to be aggressively trying to discredit Qatar, especially in the eyes of the Trump administration.

This is not a religious conflict- it is a regional power play.

Damn that's a danger increase. So Iran are positioning to secure a open supply line and hold it open. Iran supply the food supply, warships prevent the GSC blocking the ships access, seizing or other actions against them.



Qatar are readying its military forces.

 jmurph wrote:
It is also interesting timing considering the reception of Trump in Riyadh, despite his anti-Muslim comments. The Saudis seem to be aggressively trying to discredit Qatar, especially in the eyes of the Trump administration.

And sadly they found the perfect gullible fool (hey I tried restraint ok?) for their plan…

There's very little chance of military action, the Saudi coalition is already bogged in Yemen. Qatar's import/export is too massive and well connected for the rest of the international community to not step in.

 avantgarde wrote:
There's very little chance of military action, the Saudi coalition is already bogged in Yemen. Qatar's import/export is too massive and well connected for the rest of the international community to not step in.

Yeah but this is the middle east...
The middle east tends to be crazy. Standard rules do not apply.

Don't forget that this is the same region where Iran invaded Kuwait. Once on high alert, it doesn't take much to cause things to escalate fast. Sabre rattling can lead to fights, sometimes unintentionally.

 jmurph wrote:
Don't forget that this is the same region where Iran invaded Kuwait. Once on high alert, it doesn't take much to cause things to escalate fast. Sabre rattling can lead to fights, sometimes unintentionally.

Iran and Iraq. A
Israeli wars . (multiple)
Saudi war in Yeman.
Wars in Lebanon.
Gaza/Palestine wars.

If there's anything the middle east likes war :(

 jmurph wrote:
This is not a religious conflict- it is a regional power play.

The two are inherently tied together. Power comes from holding a position in the dominant tribe. Loss of status and loss of wealth comes from being in the losing tribe. And religious identity, alongside tribal affiliation, is a key source of tribal belonging.

 jhe90 wrote:

 jmurph wrote:
Don't forget that this is the same region where Iran invaded Kuwait. Once on high alert, it doesn't take much to cause things to escalate fast. Sabre rattling can lead to fights, sometimes unintentionally.

Iran and Iraq. A
Israeli wars . (multiple)
Saudi war in Yeman.
Wars in Lebanon.
Gaza/Palestine wars.

If there's anything the middle east likes war :(

You can play that game with any region, mate. We'd still be at it in constantly in Western Europe if we hadn't had an enemy-of-my-enemy narrative during the cold war and the EEC to tie everyone's money together.

EDIT: right enough, it's easy enough to argue we are still at it constantly, just not at home.

nfe wrote:

 jhe90 wrote:

 jmurph wrote:
Don't forget that this is the same region where Iran invaded Kuwait. Once on high alert, it doesn't take much to cause things to escalate fast. Sabre rattling can lead to fights, sometimes unintentionally.

Iran and Iraq. A
Israeli wars . (multiple)
Saudi war in Yeman.
Wars in Lebanon.
Gaza/Palestine wars.

If there's anything the middle east likes war :(

You can play that game with any region, mate. We'd still be at it in constantly in Western Europe if we hadn't had an enemy-of-my-enemy narrative during the cold war and the EEC to tie everyone's money together.

EDIT: right enough, it's easy enough to argue we are still at it constantly, just not at home.

Actually in Latin America wars between nations are rare. Civil wars and guerrilla movements, well that is a different story.

 Frazzled wrote:

nfe wrote:

 jhe90 wrote:

 jmurph wrote:
Don't forget that this is the same region where Iran invaded Kuwait. Once on high alert, it doesn't take much to cause things to escalate fast. Sabre rattling can lead to fights, sometimes unintentionally.

Iran and Iraq. A
Israeli wars . (multiple)
Saudi war in Yeman.
Wars in Lebanon.
Gaza/Palestine wars.

If there's anything the middle east likes war :(

You can play that game with any region, mate. We'd still be at it in constantly in Western Europe if we hadn't had an enemy-of-my-enemy narrative during the cold war and the EEC to tie everyone's money together.

EDIT: right enough, it's easy enough to argue we are still at it constantly, just not at home.

Actually in Latin America wars between nations are rare. Civil wars and guerrilla movements, well that is a different story.

Exactly. Any region.

 sebster wrote:

 jmurph wrote:
This is not a religious conflict- it is a regional power play.

The two are inherently tied together. Power comes from holding a position in the dominant tribe. Loss of status and loss of wealth comes from being in the losing tribe. And religious identity, alongside tribal affiliation, is a key source of tribal belonging.

Well, yes, politics, identity, and religion are always interlinked. However, some conflicts are more clearly ideologically driven, some are more status or resource grabs. This is clearly the latter (though with attempts to make it look like the former). KSA is flexing it's muscles to try to assert regional authority over a relatively independent coalition member and is using false pretenses to do so. A regional partner is backing the target. Compare this to ISIS activities, or conflicts between the Kurds and Iraq, or other sectarian violence, for example. While they are all fights over power, they are different flavors.

 jmurph wrote:
Well, yes, politics, identity, and religion are always interlinked. However, some conflicts are more clearly ideologically driven, some are more status or resource grabs. This is clearly the latter (though with attempts to make it look like the former). KSA is flexing it's muscles to try to assert regional authority over a relatively independent coalition member and is using false pretenses to do so. A regional partner is backing the target. Compare this to ISIS activities, or conflicts between the Kurds and Iraq, or other sectarian violence, for example. While they are all fights over power, they are different flavors.

True. I guess on the Clausewitz scale that I just made up, with 1 being 'limited aims' and 10 being 'total war', this is like a 2 - the Saudis aren't chasing some all important objective that they'd be willing to sink a huge amount of men or money in to.

 sebster wrote:


True. I guess on the Clausewitz scale that I just made up, with 1 being 'limited aims' and 10 being 'total war', this is like a 2 - the Saudis aren't chasing some all important objective that they'd be willing to sink a huge amount of men or money in to.

If not for the forward support of Turkey and Iran there would be nothing huge about the money or men required to seize Qatar, at least in terms of what they'd gain out of it.

Would we consider Turkey and Iran strange bedfellows? Edrogan's making precious few friends these days and we know Iran had few enough to start with.

 Humble Guardsman wrote:
If not for the forward support of Turkey and Iran there would be nothing huge about the money or men required to seize Qatar, at least in terms of what they'd gain out of it.

But that's the point. If this issue was more ideological or existential, then even with Iranian and Turkish support Saudi Arabia and allies would pay the price in men and treasure. But it isn't that high on the scale, and so the greater cost caused by likely Iranian and Turkish support makes the Saudis unwilling to push the issue in to open war.

Well we now have a list of Demands from Saudi etc (demands are taken from the Guardian Newspaper, the commentary is not)


1. Curb diplomatic ties with Iran and close its diplomatic missions there. Expel members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and cut off any joint military cooperation with Iran. Only trade and commerce with Iran that complies with US and international sanctions will be permitted.

2 Sever all ties to “terrorist organisations”, specifically the Muslim Brotherhood, Islamic State, al-Qaida and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Formally declare those entities as terrorist groups.

3 Shut down al-Jazeera and its affiliate stations.
(thought that would be in there)

4 Shut down news outlets that Qatar funds, directly and indirectly, including Arabi21, Rassd, Al-Araby Al-Jadeed and Middle East Eye.
(they really don't like anybody reporting in the middle east unless they're tightly controlled do they)

5 Immediately terminate the Turkish military presence in Qatar and end any joint military cooperation with Turkey inside Qatar. (Hmmm being asked to kick a valuable NATO ally out of one of their bases, tut tut)

6 Stop all means of funding for individuals, groups or organisations that have been designated as terrorists by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Bahrain, the US and other countries.

7 Hand over “terrorist figures” and wanted individuals from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Bahrain to their countries of origin. Freeze their assets, and provide any desired
information about their residency, movements and finances.

8 End interference in sovereign countries’ internal affairs.
Stop granting citizenship to wanted nationals from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Bahrain. Revoke Qatari citizenship for existing nationals where such citizenship violates those countries’ laws.
(how dare you offer political asylum!)

9 Stop all contacts with the political opposition in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Bahrain. Hand over all files detailing Qatar’s prior contacts with and support for those opposition groups.

10 Pay reparations and compensation for loss of life and other, financial losses caused by Qatar’s policies in recent years. The sum will be determined in coordination with Qatar.
(give us your money, we'll coordinate the hand over)

11 Consent to monthly audits for the first year after agreeing to the demands, then once per quarter during the second year. For the following 10 years, Qatar would be monitored annually for compliance.

12 Align itself with the other Gulf and Arab countries militarily, politically, socially and economically, as well as on economic matters, in line with an agreement reached with Saudi Arabia in 2014.
(how dare you have a foreign policy that does not fit with ours, what do you think you are, a soverign state!)

13 Agree to all the demands within 10 days of it being submitted to Qatar, or the list becomes invalid.

Saudi Arabia really needs to clean house when it comes to funding terror before they start pissing about with their neighbors.

Thats a blatant Casus Belli. Its an Ultimatum of demands, some reasonable (thrown in as a red herring no doubt to make the Saudis look reasonable) but most are clearly demands that Qatar will never possibly agree to. Saudi Arabia knows Qatar will reject its demands, and will then have the excuse it wants to invade.

And as always, the useful idiots leading the West will turn a blind eye and let it happen if not outright collude with and participate in the Saudi invasion.

It is oddly reminiscent of a similar Ultimatum 103 years ago...

Its very... Well it would not be a independent nation on that list of demands.

Its more of a vassal state agreement.

 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:
Thats a blatant Casus Belli. Its an Ultimatum of demands, some reasonable (thrown in as a red herring no doubt to make the Saudis look reasonable) but most are clearly demands that Qatar will never possibly agree to. Saudi Arabia knows Qatar will reject its demands, and will then have the excuse it wants to invade.

And as always, the useful idiots leading the West will turn a blind eye and let it happen if not outright collude with and participate in the Saudi invasion.

Blind eye? Absolutely no reason for the West to be involved. Last time we were involved Iraq happened. Only prudent course is to get the heck out of there.

I heard a rumor that Salman Jr. is trying to stir the pot prior to the AramCo IPO in order to inflate oil prices to boost the value of the shares. They want the money for Vision2030 which is a pet project of said, Salman Jr.

Well, considering it directly affects our allies and interests, we can't just ignore the situation.

Saudi Arabia is being absurd in these demands. It is a "give us everything now" list that indicates no interest in de-escalation. The question will be what they do when Qatar neither responds in 10 days nor offers some sort of reconciliatory measure. Qatar will likely flat out reject the demands.

The US position is that something "reasonable and actionable" be offered, and this list is really little more than a slap in the face to Qatar. What's more, the demand for closure of Turkey's base is a jab at them as well.

This is where a coherent Middle East policy would be nice to have for the US.

 avantgarde wrote:
I heard a rumor that Salman Jr. is trying to stir the pot prior to the AramCo IPO in order to inflate oil prices to boost the value of the shares. They want the money for Vision2030 which is a pet project of said, Salman Jr.

If so it aint working. Oil has dropped at the worst rate in two decades.

 Frazzled wrote:

 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:
Thats a blatant Casus Belli. Its an Ultimatum of demands, some reasonable (thrown in as a red herring no doubt to make the Saudis look reasonable) but most are clearly demands that Qatar will never possibly agree to. Saudi Arabia knows Qatar will reject its demands, and will then have the excuse it wants to invade.

And as always, the useful idiots leading the West will turn a blind eye and let it happen if not outright collude with and participate in the Saudi invasion.

Blind eye? Absolutely no reason for the West to be involved. Last time we were involved Iraq happened. Only prudent course is to get the heck out of there.

Whether we like it or not, we ARE involved. Saudi Arabia is America's military ally, and several European governments including my own have a close and somewhat corrupt relationship with Saudi Arabia. America has military bases in the country. We sell them weapons. We buy their oil. We cannot ignore this.

I'm not saying we should be taking military action in and against Saudi Arabia, but we sure as hell should be using every bit of influence we have on them to prevent this conflict. Withhold delivery of military hardware contracts. Stop buying their oil, and buy more from their competitors. Freeze Saudi financial assets. Start levelling sanctions on them, like we do against Iran and Russia.

 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:

 Frazzled wrote:

 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:
Thats a blatant Casus Belli. Its an Ultimatum of demands, some reasonable (thrown in as a red herring no doubt to make the Saudis look reasonable) but most are clearly demands that Qatar will never possibly agree to. Saudi Arabia knows Qatar will reject its demands, and will then have the excuse it wants to invade.

And as always, the useful idiots leading the West will turn a blind eye and let it happen if not outright collude with and participate in the Saudi invasion.

Blind eye? Absolutely no reason for the West to be involved. Last time we were involved Iraq happened. Only prudent course is to get the heck out of there.

Whether we like it or not, we ARE involved. Saudi Arabia is America's military ally, and several European governments including my own have a close and somewhat corrupt relationship with Saudi Arabia. America has military bases in the country. We sell them weapons. We buy their oil. We cannot ignore this.

I'm not saying we should be taking military action in and against Saudi Arabia, but we sure as hell should be using every bit of influence we have on them to prevent this conflict. Withhold delivery of military hardware contracts. Stop buying their oil, and buy more from their competitors. Freeze Saudi financial assets. Start levelling sanctions on them, like we do against Iran and Russia.

Sure we can. Just do nothing.

And allow the creation of a second, expansionist and aggressive Islamic Caliphate?

This could be more about economics. Saudi Arabia is currently hemorrhaging cash with oil prices down, and struggling to find a way to raise the price of oil for their Aramco IPO, which is needed to fund their ambitious Vision 2030 plans, which will fail terribly. But what does Qatar have? A whole of lot of natural gas and little to defend it, which would certainly help Saudi Arabia's bottom line. And Qatar knows that, which is why it built Al Udeid in the first place; to entice the US to move there and help defend them.

I highly doubt Saudi Arabia will take any military action without the US blessing. And while I assume no president would ever sign off on that, we have a pebble-sized brain in the White House that could be won over with shinny things and flattering compliments.

Trump didn't/still doesn't care that Russia annexed Ukraine, and doesn't really care about Qatar. And Iran isnt going to be able to defend them either. If the Iranians took some pot shots at the Saudi Arabians, the US would def get involved.

Saudi Arabia has nothing to lose here. Either Qatar falls in line with Saudi Arabia, or it loses everything.

The US could do plenty and relatively cheaply. For example the simple threat of dropping the sanctions on Iran would pretty much stop Saudi Arabia on its tracks, or suspending military sales and support to Saudi Arabia. The US has plenty of diplomatic and economical power that it could use, specially over Saudi Arabia.

Of course also there could be a reminder that there is already a very important american military base on Qatar.

 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:
And allow the creation of a second, expansionist and aggressive Islamic Caliphate?

Where? Qatar? The ME is currently in the middle of another class between Arabs, Persians, and Turks. It will be like this for some time.
Or put it this way, when was the last time the US involved in the ME turned out well.

Yeah, it is already causing issues with the US base. KSA is probably hoping that the economic effect will be enough to get Qatar to pony up some money and fall in line with the GSA. But if not? Wars have started over less....