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 Luciferian wrote:

 Inquisitor Lord Katherine wrote:


How are conscripts that bad?

Big blob o' Conscripts averages more wounds per turn against all targets than any kind of Leman Russ Tank, or a Manticore.

Conscripts Vs. T4, Sv3+ ~ 7 kills
Conscripts Vs. T7, Sv3+ ~ 4 wounds
Leman Russ Vs. T4, Sv3+ ~ 1 kill
Leman Russ Vs. T7, Sv3+ ~ 1.5 wound
Manticore Vs. T4, Sv3+ ~ 2 kills
Manticore Vs. T7, Sv3+ ~ 2.3 wounds


Also, Traditio, you have no idea what you're talking about. Give me ten minutes, and I will produce a detailed display of what a 8e Manticore will do each turn.

Conscripts receive a low score because on average they take more casualties than they cause.

I have for 20 Conscripts:
Expected wounds caused
MEQ - 0.739851408
TEQ - 0.3701478816
IEQ - 2.221776

Expected Casualties taken:
MEQ 9x Bolter 1x Plasma Gun - 3.213652464
TEQ 4x Storm Bolter 1x Asscan - 5.138044372
IEQ 9x Lasgun 1x Plasma Gun - 1.91515

Ah, you're using 20 conscripts unsupported, I'm using 50 with FRF/SRF.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Also, here Traditio, I added Terminators and Land Raiders to the list:



Again, y-axis is percent of trials achieving that result

Terminators can ignore it, basically.

 Inquisitor Lord Katherine wrote:


Ah, you're using 20 conscripts unsupported, I'm using 50 with FRF/SRF.

Yeah, I'm trying to stick to minimum squad sizes just to have a frame of reference for relative ratings, but obviously the more of something you have in a unit the better value you're getting per model. That goes for anything. What are FRF and SRF? I can see how much better they do under those conditions.

 Traditio wrote:

Inquisitor Lord Katherine wrote:Also, Traditio, you have no idea what you're talking about. Give me ten minutes, and I will produce a detailed display of what a 8e Manticore will do each turn.

Do you want to see the math?

2d6 shots per turn averages to 7 shots per turn. 7 shots over the course of 4 turns is 28 shots. Assuming 4+ to hit, that averages to 14 successful hits. Furthermore, the average damage on a 1d3 roll is a 2. Here's my math for each of the targets:

IKs and wraithknights:

14/1 hits X 2/3 chance to wound X 2/3 chance to bypass saves X 2/1 for average damage = 112/9, or about 12 wounds. Multiply by 2 manticores, and that's a dead IK or wraithknight.

Landraider:

14/1 hits X 2/3 chance to wound X 1/2 chance to bypass saves X 2/1 for average damage = 28/3, or a little over 9 wounds. Multiply by two, and that's a dead landraider.

TEQs outside of cover:

14/1 hits X 5/6 chance to wound X 1/2 chance to bypass saves = 5. Take into account the average 2 damage, and that's a dead terminator squad.

Bikes:

14/1 hits X 5/6 chance to wound X 2/3 chances to bypass saves = 70/9. Take into account the average 2 wounds, and that's about 7 SM bikes.

Sounds Terrifying..... except that Imperial Knight kills a Manticore in Round 1, same with Landraiders now... LR could even kill both Manticores in 1 turn.

Katherine, would you be interested in sharing that sheet? I'd be interested in having a look at it. I'm not questioning your math; it just looks impressive.

Also, if not, can you run the name numbers, but with 6 lascannons (at BS 4+) for comparison?

The problem with looking at the expected damage roll of 2 on a 1D3 against terminators (or models with a wound total 2+) is that, yeah, you'll see it average out over time, however, the order matters.

Consider 2 1D3 damage rolls against 2 terminators. The expected value of each roll is 2, so you'd think you're safe concluding that the expected dead terminators is 2. But that's not right.

1, 3 => 1 terminator dead
3, 1 => 1 terminator dead
2, 3 => 2 terminator dead
3, 2 => 2 terminator dead
1, 2 => 1 terminator dead
2, 1 => 1 terminator dead
1, 1 => 1 terminator dead
2, 2 => 2 terminator dead
3, 3 => 2 terminator dead

Each probability is equally likely, at 1/9.

In this very simple case, the "expected" wounds per D3 is 2, however the expected dead terminators is 1.45.

daedalus wrote:For equal points, you can get about 5.5 lascannons in HWS. Sidestepping the fact that lascannons are probably still slightly better overall due to superior AP (I kinda want to see the math of how you're comparing the two) do you think the extras are worth the loss of the extra 2 lascannons worth of damage? Your comments appear to suggest it overwhelmingly is.

The superior AP doesn't help as much as you think it would. Here's the math for 5 lascannons over the course of 7 turns:

Note in advance my assumption that the average damage for a 1d6 roll is 3.5 damage.

35/1 shots X 1/2 chance to hit = 35/2 hits

IKs and Wraithknights (assuming a 5+ invuln):

35/2 chance to hit X 2/3 chance to wound X 2/3 chance to bypass saves X 7/2 average damage = 245/9, or a little better than 27 unsaved wounds.

Landraiders:

35/2 chance to hit X 2/3 chance to wound X 5/6 chance to bypass saves X 7/2 average damage = 1225/36, which is almost 34 unsaved wounds.

Terminators:

35/2 chance to hit X 5/6 chance to wound X 2/3 chance to bypass saves X 7/2 average damage = 1225/36, which is almost 34 unsaved wounds.

SM bikes:

35/2 chance to hit X 2/3 chance to wound X 5/6 chance to bypass saves X 7/2 average damage = 1225/36, which is, again almost 34 unsaved wounds.

I'm aware that looks like a lot, but understand that, for this math to work, the following conditions have to obtain:

1. The lascannons have to take zero casualties.
2. The lascannons have to have line of sight for every shot.
3. The lascannons have to be in range for every shot.

In fact, those assumptions are unreasonable. What's actually going to happen is that your HWTs are going to get assassinated in fairly short order.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Fragile wrote:Sounds Terrifying..... except that Imperial Knight kills a Manticore in Round 1, same with Landraiders now... LR could even kill both Manticores in 1 turn.

No, they don't. In order for the IK or the landraider to kill the manticore, two conditions have to obtain:

1. The IK and landraider must have LoS

and

2. The IK and landraider must be within range either to fire ranged weapons or charge.

Given the IG army as a whole, both of those are unreasonable assumptions.

 Luciferian wrote:

 Inquisitor Lord Katherine wrote:


Ah, you're using 20 conscripts unsupported, I'm using 50 with FRF/SRF.

Yeah, I'm trying to stick to minimum squad sizes just to have a frame of reference for relative ratings, but obviously the more of something you have in a unit the better value you're getting per model. That goes for anything. What are FRF and SRF? I can see how much better they do under those conditions.

FRFSRF is an order that makes lasguns rapid fire 2.

A lot more flash lights with FRFSRF.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
But remember, less accuracy.

Marmatag wrote:Consider 2 1D3 damage rolls against 2 terminators. The expected value of each roll is 2, so you'd think you're safe concluding that the expected dead terminators is 2. But that's not right.

Even if we assume this damage sequence for 5 unsaved proto-wounds vs. terminators (1, 2, 3, 1, 2), that's still an average of 3 terminators over the course of a game, even without command rerolls. And that's low balling the damage. If we change the second 1 to a 2, that's an average of 4 dead terminators.

Luciferian wrote:

 Inquisitor Lord Katherine wrote:


Ah, you're using 20 conscripts unsupported, I'm using 50 with FRF/SRF.

Yeah, I'm trying to stick to minimum squad sizes just to have a frame of reference for relative ratings, but obviously the more of something you have in a unit the better value you're getting per model. That goes for anything. What are FRF and SRF? I can see how much better they do under those conditions.

FRF/SRF doubles gun output. 4 shots at 12", 2 shots at 24".

daedalus wrote:Katherine, would you be interested in sharing that sheet? I'd be interested in having a look at it. I'm not questioning your math; it just looks impressive.

Also, if not, can you run the name numbers, but with 6 lascannons (at BS 4+) for comparison?

It's actually about 10 different excel files. It works by simulating an attack a couple thousand times, then totaling up the results.

The terminator number I represented isn't entirely precise, because terminator would allocation is weird.

I'll run the lascannons, give me a minute.

 Trickstick wrote:

 Luciferian wrote:

 Inquisitor Lord Katherine wrote:


Ah, you're using 20 conscripts unsupported, I'm using 50 with FRF/SRF.

Yeah, I'm trying to stick to minimum squad sizes just to have a frame of reference for relative ratings, but obviously the more of something you have in a unit the better value you're getting per model. That goes for anything. What are FRF and SRF? I can see how much better they do under those conditions.

FRFSRF is an order that makes lasguns rapid fire 2.

OK, with 50 models and 2 shots per model they become the second most efficient unit I've tested. Just goes to show how certain models should be played to suit their potentials and weaknesses.

Edit - scrap that, I was off a decimal place. They become the most efficient unit by almost ten times!

 Traditio wrote:

Marmatag wrote:Consider 2 1D3 damage rolls against 2 terminators. The expected value of each roll is 2, so you'd think you're safe concluding that the expected dead terminators is 2. But that's not right.

Even if we assume this damage sequence for 5 unsaved proto-wounds vs. terminators (1, 2, 3, 1, 2), that's still an average of 3 terminators over the course of a game, even without command rerolls. And that's low balling the damage. If we change the second 1 to a 2, that's an average of 4 dead terminators.

Is that 4 too many or 16 too few?

How much of that however is hitting and will wound, and how much to cause a save for an opponent?

 Luciferian wrote:

 Trickstick wrote:

 Luciferian wrote:

 Inquisitor Lord Katherine wrote:


Ah, you're using 20 conscripts unsupported, I'm using 50 with FRF/SRF.

Yeah, I'm trying to stick to minimum squad sizes just to have a frame of reference for relative ratings, but obviously the more of something you have in a unit the better value you're getting per model. That goes for anything. What are FRF and SRF? I can see how much better they do under those conditions.

FRFSRF is an order that makes lasguns rapid fire 2.

OK, with 50 models and 2 shots per model they become the second most efficient unit I've tested. Just goes to show how certain models should be played to suit their potentials and weaknesses.

And then double that at half range and watch the fun begin!

 Luciferian wrote:
OK, with 50 models and 2 shots per model they become the second most efficient unit I've tested. Just goes to show how certain models should be played to suit their potentials and weaknesses.

You doing rapid fire range too? That would be 4 shots each.

Edit: Although getting 50 models within 12" is not easy.

Inquisitor Lord Katherine wrote:Is that 4 too many or 16 too few?

Compare the cost of 4 terminators to a single manticore.

I was wrong about the Conscripts being second place, 3 Bikes with 2x Melta Guns has a rating of 0.193, and 50 Conscripts with two shots each has a rating of 1.855!

You're also ignoring the possibility of the manticore not getting first turn and getting reduced to less than half of its wounds. If that happens, on a 5+ it will only score 2.33 hits, which will deal 4.66 wounds (before any saves). Obviously a 6+ is even worse bring hits down to 1.166 and only 3.32 wounds before saves. Sure the manticore has the potential to be devastating, but with only T7 and 11 wounds, it's not exactly the pinnacle of durability. If anything I'd be more worried about the deathstrike dealing 3D6 (an average of 10.5) mortal wounds to a unit (and not to wound roll required), plus an extra D3 to any unit within 6" of the first on a 4+. That's almost enough to cripple an IK (short by 1.5 wounds) Neither are super broken, but personally I'd rather have the deathstrike simply because as long as it stays on the table for turn it fires for full effect instead of having to stick around for 4 turns. Overall, I'd be more worried about a nid player with those genestealers and cheap, but very effective carnifexes. (Not that I begrudge nids their time in the spot light after the trainwreck that was atleast 5th through 7th)

 Marmatag wrote:
I can't rate the relative power scales, but I'll give a + or - to an army i see that got better or worse relative to what i feel the average powerscale would be. (Nebulous, I know).

Tyranids: +++
Necrons: +
Orks: ++
Imperial Guard: ++
Genestealer Cult: even
Eldar: - -
Dark Eldar: +
Space Marines: -
Grey Knights: - -
Blood Angels: ++
Space Wolves: +
Dark Angels: - - -
Tau: even
Daemons: - -
Chaos Space Marines: ++

IMHO Space Marines got better if you wheren't running one of the brokenly abused formations

Luciferian wrote:Unbreakable as long as your opponent doesn't have many Assault Cannons

Why would you waste assault cannons on a conscript blob?

BrianDavion wrote:
IMHO Space Marines got better if you wheren't running one of the brokenly abused formations

The formations made me drop 40k for a year. They were a horrible design decision. I'm glad they are dead!

 Azreal13 wrote:
I love how, having repeatedly demonstrated a total and fundamental lack of understanding of what "OP" is in 7th, and displayed a total lack of concern for actual balance as long as you had the balance you wanted, you've actually started already on an edition that isn't even out yet.

Frankly, it's ridiculous to the point of parody, and I say this not as an attack but as a simple statement of opinion, Dakka is a better forum when you're not posting in it.

See, i'm more the opposite. I was thinking about posting a thread in the nuts & bolts section of the forum to have an additional special thread: view recent threads, view popular threads & view traditio threads.

All we need is bill cosby, and we can have: traditio says the darndest things.

Here's for 6x HWT Lascannons, for he who asked.

 Traditio wrote:

I'm aware that looks like a lot, but understand that, for this math to work, the following conditions have to obtain:

1. The lascannons have to take zero casualties.
2. The lascannons have to have line of sight for every shot.
3. The lascannons have to be in range for every shot.

In fact, those assumptions are unreasonable. What's actually going to happen is that your HWTs are going to get assassinated in fairly short order.

Your math plays out like I would expect it to, so I think it comes down to the base assumptions.

1. This is entirely fair to argue. The lascannoners will lose efficiency, and they'll do it damn quick. A lot of my consideration for that initial punch of the lascannons lies in the assumption that they'll be mostly intact by my first attack, and then understand there'll be diminishing returns thereafter. I can fully concede that the Manticore will have more consistent results through the game due to staying power. As a philosophy, I would rather front-load my damage in the hopes of minimizing the opportunity for return fire than strive for consistent damage throughout the game. Even if the Manticore can more reliably have something dead by turn 4, that's still 4 turns of putting up with it being on the table. So then comes the calculated risk of tailoring to have it dead by turn 2 as opposed to turn 4, and what the consequences for failure are (that last part being a holistic list building situation, not necessarily a question to you).
2. Given the current ruleset (unless I missed something pivotal somewhere) I'm going to assume I practically always have LoS to at least one part of a unit barring something like a very dense urban board, and even then i feel like the ones I play on usually have some windows somewhere. And that's several years of experience at Adepticon in addition to local/regional games. I think it's unfair to assume that an IK will ever be hidden trivially.
3. This is kind of a mixed thing for me. It's not often that I've run into issues with 48" range though, so it's not a personal concern. I can certainly see edge cases where it would make a difference, and I've used my basilisks to that advantage before.

I still don't agree with you that it's an "overpowered" unit, but I'll certainly concede that it's better than I previously believed it was. I imagine I'll run my two and see if they wind up being as useful to me in practice as they are in theory.

 Traditio wrote:

Luciferian wrote:Unbreakable as long as your opponent doesn't have many Assault Cannons

Why would you waste assault cannons on a conscript blob?

If someone had a blob of 50 Conscripts rapid firing at me I would decimate them any way I could.

Wolfblade wrote:You're also ignoring the possibility of the manticore not getting first turn

It is safe to assume that the IG player will not get first turn, unless he's running tank spam.

and getting reduced to less than half of its wounds.

If the IG player is even halfway decent at the game, the only way that's going to happen is if his opponent is himself running manticores (or equivalents).

 Traditio wrote:

Inquisitor Lord Katherine wrote:Is that 4 too many or 16 too few?

Compare the cost of 4 terminators to a single manticore.

By that logic, terminators are grossly underpriced right now.

If I dump my current 170 point Manticore into them, 99 points of Wolf Guard Terminators take about 1 casualty, maybe from my manticore.

But if the 99 points of terminators attacks my Manticore, then the terminators delete it in one round.

 Traditio wrote:

Wolfblade wrote:You're also ignoring the possibility of the manticore not getting first turn

It is safe to assume that the IG player will not get first turn, unless he's running tank spam.

and getting reduced to less than half of its wounds.

If the IG player is even halfway decent at the game, the only way that's going to happen is if his opponent is himself running manticores (or equivalents).

Hahahaha.... I'm halfway decent at this game, and I can kill a manticore easily.

I will say, my "competitive" list absolutely tears less competitive lists apart. It's supposed to, and it should. I've been assembling and revising it since the last codex came out, and before that. But if I bring it up against the most competitive lists the Tau or Necrons or Space Marines or hell, even the Tyranids can field, I just sort of roll over and die.

Traditio needs a Blamin' maybe.

 Traditio wrote:

Wolfblade wrote:You're also ignoring the possibility of the manticore not getting first turn

It is safe to assume that the IG player will not get first turn, unless he's running tank spam.

and getting reduced to less than half of its wounds.

If the IG player is even halfway decent at the game, the only way that's going to happen is if his opponent is himself running manticores (or equivalents).

Or anything else with indirect fire, or deepstriking (which can be somewhat mitigated, but this comes down to what weapons they're carrying, crisis suits for example have no trouble plinking away with missile pods after deepstriking), or flyers. And I'm sure I'm forgetting something else, I imagine genestealers buffed by the swarm lord could get to it, or atleast fairly close. A deathstrike will severely cripple it (1 wound left) or wipe it out completely on average too, along with the potential to deal some extra damage to whatever is around it.

Wolfblade wrote:Or anything else with indirect fire, or deepstriking (which can be somewhat mitigated, but this comes down to what weapons they're carrying, crisis suits for example have no trouble plinking away with missile pods after deepstriking), or flyers. And I'm sure I'm forgetting something else, I imagine genestealers buffed by the swarm lord could get to it, or atleast fairly close. A deathstrike will severely cripple it (1 wound left) or wipe it out completely on average too, along with the potential to deal some extra damage to whatever is around it.

A lot of this depends on the table. What is likely to happen is that there's going to be a conscript line at the front of the deployment zone, and the manticore is going to be somewhere in the backfield, safely hidden away behind an LoS blocking terrain piece.

Unless the IG player is running tank spam, deepstrike isn't really an immediate threat because of the way that the IG army works as a whole.

Again, yes, indirect fire is a definite threat to the manticore, but even then, we are still talking about a T7, 3+ save model,

The only thing in the SM codex I can think of that would pose a threat to the manticore on turn 1 is a thunderfire cannon, and even then, the threat would be minimal.