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jouso wrote:

 Orlanth wrote:

1. Pro-union Scots would be best advised not to boycott the referendum even if illegal. Vote anyway, make sure its not one sided, it is not for the voter to determine the legality of the ballot, and it is not illegal of itself to vote in a ballot that is illegal.

Again, why? Why would supporters of one party knowingly participate in a publicity stunt organised by the opposing party?

Just because I say "this is a referendum" it doesn't make it so.

No, but if it is your government that says "this is a referendum" it does make it so. The referendum in Catalonia was called by the legitimate government of Catalonia, and even if they may not have acted legitimately in that, they still are the government.

jouso wrote:
Let's forget Scotland and to go the other example: Do you accept the Crimean referendum? Do you support Russia annexing Crimea based on that?

Oh, can I answer this one? You mentioned Crimea, I have to answer now. The situation in Crimea isn't really comparable to Catalonia. Crimea is a part of Russia that suddenly found itself 'on the wrong side of the border' in 1991, and the referendum only took place after Crimea was already independent. The referendum was not on independence, but a choice for re-joining either Russia or Ukraine. Catalonia by contrast has been part of Spain for ages and the referendum was about independence. It is much more comparable to the Scotland or Quebec referenda.
And no, like the referendum in Catalonia, I do not believe the referendum on Crimea was entirely 'clean'. But unlike Catalonia, the referendum on Crimea was a completely moot point anyway. It was conducted just for show, because it was already known beforehand that the majority of the Crimean population was ethnically Russian and wanted to become part of Russia. In Catalonia, I feel that the independist and unionist sides are much more closely matched in support.

 Orlanth wrote:

jouso wrote:

Let's forget Scotland and to go the other example: Do you accept the Crimean referendum? Do you support Russia annexing Crimea based on that?

Putin invades Crimea with a military force while a pro-Russian Ukrainian government leaves the door open for them. Most non Russian speaking populace of Crimea have to flee and thus the remaining population is not a fair indication of the whole, No the referendum was illegal because it was issued by an invading force on another nations sovereign territory after removing opposed population base.
However conquest happens, Putin conquered Crimea, I respect him for having the balls to pull off a territorial conquest in a European territory in the 21st century.
Its not legal, but it was mostly bloodless, supported by the remaining population without a holocaust and the Russians aren't going to leave.
It has happened, like Tibet happened, and the cause is lost. So no point making waves.
Instead of complaining about Crimea soldiers have been sent to the Baltic states and the remainder of the Ukraine. Putin knows his neighbours won't be caught napping a second time. Ukraine will have no more pro-Moscow governments to sell them out, and the Baltic states are wide awake to the threat and NATO is deploying token troops in border regions so an unopposed walk in is not possible.

It isn't really conquest if you agree to it, nor is it an invasion if the soldiers are already there.
You give Putin too much credit. It was really the Crimean government that was responsible for all this. They declared independence and invited the Russian army in, Putin did not have to do anything but shrug and say ok.

Sorry Iron Captain, I smell Putin all over this, and am not saying that as an accusation. I like the smell of the bs you just served, it's quite funny in its front actually. It's chutzpah as they say.

Putin just happened to shrug and say ok, and mobilise an army before someone in Kiev can say 'did you forget to lock the door into Russia last night?'.
Yeah right.

 Orlanth wrote:
Sorry Iron Captain, I smell Putin all over this, and am not saying that as an accusation. I like the smell of the bs you just served, it's quite funny in its front actually. It's chutzpah as they say.

Putin just happened to shrug and say ok, and mobilise an army before someone in Kiev can say 'did you forget to lock the door into Russia last night?'.
Yeah right.

Putin didn't mobilise anything. A lot of Russian soldiers were already in Crimea. Sevastopol is and was the base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet even when it was part of Ukraine, not to mention a large presence of Cossacks and plenty of volunteers. That was why it happened so quickly. Soldiers from mainland Russia only appeared a lot later, and even then they were not specially mobilised for the job but rather part of standing units from the southern military district. Putin acted upon the opportunity very smartly, but he did not create the opportunity. That really was the doing of Aksyonov and the Crimean parliament. They, and their "self-defense" forces that helped them seize power, created the opportunity for Putin to come in and annex Crimea nice and swiftly. I know that people in the West have the tendency to credit or blame Putin for every single little thing that happens in Russia, but that is quite frustrating for all the people in Russia who do a lot of hard work.


Btw, you know what I find really strange about this whole Catalan independence thing? It is how quiet everything is. Catalonia has already declared independence. Usually such things are followed (or preceded) by lots of heated passion and frantic action on both sides. Here it is just really quiet, with only a few politicians flinging mud and the occasional peaceful protest in the streets. Where are all the emotions? Where is the action? The Catalan and Spanish people and politicians seem remarkably controlled and restrained about this whole thing

 Iron_Captain wrote:

 Orlanth wrote:
Sorry Iron Captain, I smell Putin all over this, and am not saying that as an accusation. I like the smell of the bs you just served, it's quite funny in its front actually. It's chutzpah as they say.

Putin just happened to shrug and say ok, and mobilise an army before someone in Kiev can say 'did you forget to lock the door into Russia last night?'.
Yeah right.

Putin didn't mobilise anything. A lot of Russian soldiers were already in Crimea. Sevastopol is and was the base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet even when it was part of Ukraine, not to mention a large presence of Cossacks and plenty of volunteers. That was why it happened so quickly. Soldiers from mainland Russia only appeared a lot later, and even then they were not specially mobilised for the job but rather part of standing units from the southern military district. Putin acted upon the opportunity very smartly, but he did not create the opportunity. That really was the doing of Aksyonov and the Crimean parliament. They, and their "self-defense" forces that helped them seize power, created the opportunity for Putin to come in and annex Crimea nice and swiftly. I know that people in the West have the tendency to credit or blame Putin for every single little thing that happens in Russia, but that is quite frustrating for all the people in Russia who do a lot of hard work.


Btw, you know what I find really strange about this whole Catalan independence thing? It is how quiet everything is. Catalonia has already declared independence. Usually such things are followed (or preceded) by lots of heated passion and frantic action on both sides. Here it is just really quiet, with only a few politicians flinging mud and the occasional peaceful protest in the streets. Where are all the emotions? Where is the action? The Catalan and Spanish people and politicians seem remarkably controlled and restrained about this whole thing

Things have been quiet. The Spanish have not jumped the gun like last time and sent in the heavies at first time of trouble. They seem to be playing a longer. Smarter game than first time round.

Theres no long term end if they got for the blood and batons approach.

 Iron_Captain wrote:

 Orlanth wrote:
Sorry Iron Captain, I smell Putin all over this, and am not saying that as an accusation. I like the smell of the bs you just served, it's quite funny in its front actually. It's chutzpah as they say.

Putin just happened to shrug and say ok, and mobilise an army before someone in Kiev can say 'did you forget to lock the door into Russia last night?'.
Yeah right.

Putin didn't mobilise anything. A lot of Russian soldiers were already in Crimea. Sevastopol is and was the base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet even when it was part of Ukraine, not to mention a large presence of Cossacks and plenty of volunteers. That was why it happened so quickly. Soldiers from mainland Russia only appeared a lot later, and even then they were not specially mobilised for the job but rather part of standing units from the southern military district. Putin acted upon the opportunity very smartly, but he did not create the opportunity. That really was the doing of Aksyonov and the Crimean parliament. They, and their "self-defense" forces that helped them seize power, created the opportunity for Putin to come in and annex Crimea nice and swiftly. I know that people in the West have the tendency to credit or blame Putin for every single little thing that happens in Russia, but that is quite frustrating for all the people in Russia who do a lot of hard work.

I wonder if you actually believe all that.

Putin was an intelligence officer, he had his eye on the scenario. There was also communication throughout. Also movements of that scale CANNOT happen by accident, its not anyones way, Russians least of all. Russian command doctrine is still heavily centralised. What you say is frankly flat out impossible, but this is the scenario you spin when you need to.

TLDR Your position can be summed up as "We found this Crimea laying around, looks discarded, shall we keep it?"

 Iron_Captain wrote:

Btw, you know what I find really strange about this whole Catalan independence thing? It is how quiet everything is. Catalonia has already declared independence. Usually such things are followed (or preceded) by lots of heated passion and frantic action on both sides. Here it is just really quiet, with only a few politicians flinging mud and the occasional peaceful protest in the streets. Where are all the emotions? Where is the action? The Catalan and Spanish people and politicians seem remarkably controlled and restrained about this whole thing

That isnt suprising me one bit and shouldnt surprise you.

Madrid has a lot of thinking to do. Rajoy cannot afford another mistake.
We can summise information from the lack of information, basic analysis. Here goes.

Some suppositions:
- We can summise that the Catalonian independence gambit, however it plays out can effect the economy of Barcelona and Spain as a whole, and Barcelona is a contributor sub-economy for Spain.
- We can thus assume that any lengthy downturn will have negative effects on Spain's economy and effect Spain's overall status as a contributor/recipient nation in the EU.
- The uncertainty has already hit the Euro hard, and places immediate economic pressure on the EU.
- Brexit will cost the EU 20 billion Euro/year in lost capital. The EU is already struggling with replacing that. Anything Theresa May agrees to pay is a one off.
- The EU is purchasing bonds to counter and has extended bond purchase until September 2018 due to the vote.

So what would you do if you were a part of a major contributor economy like France or Germany, or a leader within the EU itself?

You cannot directly effect the outcome here. but you can facepalm at how Rajoy's mishandling has made it worse. Rajoy's blunders will cost Germany money, will cost France money, will setback the progress of the EU project. What will Merkel be thinking, or Macron, or Donald Tusk? Damage limitaton? If so, how.

One thing they can do is try to stop Rajoy from blundering. We have just had a weekend since Fridays vote. I would not be surprised if the Spanish government got some firm but friendly advice on what not to do, even if they do or don't know what to do.

As for the Catalan government/former government. It's a waiting game from them. They have made their move, now hey site back. The last thing they want to do is taunt Madrid into action , that will lose them victim status. It is also a time for pro-independence leaders to gather and talk. They might have to scatter soon, so they need to get their own ducks in row. Though from the handling so far everything seems well orchestrated.

We should get a feel of how this will be played out tomorrow. It's certainly Madrid's turn to move, but they do not have the political initiative, so I expect the next move to either be very cautious or massive and sudden, and I am doubting the latter will end well.


Next we have to look at the legal issues from Madrid's perspective. Do they send in police to arrest? If so, who. Where do they do this, at what time and how do they prepare the police. Do they involve the military (which would be a severe escalation) or rely on the police and hope they don't ha up the entire exercise and feth off everyone.
Next who decided legality, which courts and when do they sit?

Madrid could do worse than sending the entire issue onto legal staff and seek warrants both through Spanish police, Catalan police (just to see them disobey) and Interpol simultaneously. They might do nothing after the weekend but make statements to this effect.

Now from the pro-independence movement what should they do. First step would be to ask for floor time at the UN and ask the general assembly for votes of recognition. They will possibly even get some from somewhere. Trouble is the US is against, and as they are not recognised by the US they might be told they might not even get through the door at New York airport. There are provisions in such case for chambers to be held in Geneva. This will add to the time, usually years.

What they will want is business as usual in Barcelona Monday morning, and following through the week as long as possible. I can't see any advantage in positional play here. Instead when in the correct position stop moving.

 Orlanth wrote:

 Iron_Captain wrote:

 Orlanth wrote:
Sorry Iron Captain, I smell Putin all over this, and am not saying that as an accusation. I like the smell of the bs you just served, it's quite funny in its front actually. It's chutzpah as they say.

Putin just happened to shrug and say ok, and mobilise an army before someone in Kiev can say 'did you forget to lock the door into Russia last night?'.
Yeah right.

Putin didn't mobilise anything. A lot of Russian soldiers were already in Crimea. Sevastopol is and was the base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet even when it was part of Ukraine, not to mention a large presence of Cossacks and plenty of volunteers. That was why it happened so quickly. Soldiers from mainland Russia only appeared a lot later, and even then they were not specially mobilised for the job but rather part of standing units from the southern military district. Putin acted upon the opportunity very smartly, but he did not create the opportunity. That really was the doing of Aksyonov and the Crimean parliament. They, and their "self-defense" forces that helped them seize power, created the opportunity for Putin to come in and annex Crimea nice and swiftly. I know that people in the West have the tendency to credit or blame Putin for every single little thing that happens in Russia, but that is quite frustrating for all the people in Russia who do a lot of hard work.

I wonder if you actually believe all that.

Putin was an intelligence officer, he had his eye on the scenario. There was also communication throughout. Also movements of that scale CANNOT happen by accident, its not anyones way, Russians least of all. Russian command doctrine is still heavily centralised. What you say is frankly flat out impossible, but this is the scenario you spin when you need to.

TLDR Your position can be summed up as "We found this Crimea laying around, looks discarded, shall we keep it?"

 Iron_Captain wrote:

Btw, you know what I find really strange about this whole Catalan independence thing? It is how quiet everything is. Catalonia has already declared independence. Usually such things are followed (or preceded) by lots of heated passion and frantic action on both sides. Here it is just really quiet, with only a few politicians flinging mud and the occasional peaceful protest in the streets. Where are all the emotions? Where is the action? The Catalan and Spanish people and politicians seem remarkably controlled and restrained about this whole thing

That isnt suprising me one bit and shouldnt surprise you.

Madrid has a lot of thinking to do. Rajoy cannot afford another mistake.
We can summise information from the lack of information, basic analysis. Here goes.

Some suppositions:
- We can summise that the Catalonian independence gambit, however it plays out can effect the economy of Barcelona and Spain as a whole, and Barcelona is a contributor sub-economy for Spain.
- We can thus assume that any lengthy downturn will have negative effects on Spain's economy and effect Spain's overall status as a contributor/recipient nation in the EU.
- The uncertainty has already hit the Euro hard, and places immediate economic pressure on the EU.
- Brexit will cost the EU 20 billion Euro/year in lost capital. The EU is already struggling with replacing that. Anything Theresa May agrees to pay is a one off.
- The EU is purchasing bonds to counter and has extended bond purchase until September 2018 due to the vote.

So what would you do if you were a part of a major contributor economy like France or Germany, or a leader within the EU itself?

You cannot directly effect the outcome here. but you can facepalm at how Rajoy's mishandling has made it worse. Rajoy's blunders will cost Germany money, will cost France money, will setback the progress of the EU project. What will Merkel be thinking, or Macron, or Donald Tusk? Damage limitaton? If so, how.

One thing they can do is try to stop Rajoy from blundering. We have just had a weekend since Fridays vote. I would not be surprised if the Spanish government got some firm but friendly advice on what not to do, even if they do or don't know what to do.

As for the Catalan government/former government. It's a waiting game from them. They have made their move, now hey site back. The last thing they want to do is taunt Madrid into action , that will lose them victim status. It is also a time for pro-independence leaders to gather and talk. They might have to scatter soon, so they need to get their own ducks in row. Though from the handling so far everything seems well orchestrated.

We should get a feel of how this will be played out tomorrow. It's certainly Madrid's turn to move, but they do not have the political initiative, so I expect the next move to either be very cautious or massive and sudden, and I am doubting the latter will end well.


Next we have to look at the legal issues from Madrid's perspective. Do they send in police to arrest? If so, who. Where do they do this, at what time and how do they prepare the police. Do they involve the military (which would be a severe escalation) or rely on the police and hope they don't ha up the entire exercise and feth off everyone.
Next who decided legality, which courts and when do they sit?

Madrid could do worse than sending the entire issue onto legal staff and seek warrants both through Spanish police, Catalan police (just to see them disobey) and Interpol simultaneously. They might do nothing after the weekend but make statements to this effect.

Now from the pro-independence movement what should they do. First step would be to ask for floor time at the UN and ask the general assembly for votes of recognition. They will possibly even get some from somewhere. Trouble is the US is against, and as they are not recognised by the US they might be told they might not even get through the door at New York airport. There are provisions in such case for chambers to be held in Geneva. This will add to the time, usually years.

What they will want is business as usual in Barcelona Monday morning, and following through the week as long as possible. I can't see any advantage in positional play here. Instead when in the correct position stop moving.

I agree at your assessment on events.

And yes, well Rayjoy is likely feeling the knives being sharpened in own party and such. If he gets up and causes them to lose a entire chunk of Spain then he goes down as the man who broke up Spain.

A name I'm sure he very very willing to avoid.
They waiting and getting council and advice from other European leaders makes sense. The first time they fetched up royaly, they will not get a second chance without the result being major FUBAR.

 jhe90 wrote:

And yes, well Rayjoy is likely feeling the knives being sharpened in own party and such. If he gets up and causes them to lose a entire chunk of Spain then he goes down as the man who broke up Spain.

A name I'm sure he very very willing to avoid.

Ego is a compelling but unsound motivator. And Rajoy from accounts here is more self centered than average.

 jhe90 wrote:

They waiting and getting council and advice from other European leaders makes sense. The first time they fetched up royaly, they will not get a second chance without the result being major FUBAR.

Perhaps you misread me slightly. Due to the severity of the moment, I don't think any advice from Germany, France or Brussels will be by request.

Well, slight clarification, the independents can run, but only if they're not in prison.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41798254

Slick way to dodge the issue, arrest them all, and they're disqualified! It's such an original thought!

 Galas wrote:

 Frazzled wrote:

 welshhoppo wrote:
Spain could sort this whole thing out much quicker and far less painful if it just authorised and held a referendum in Catalonia.

Or it just hang all the mayors who supported it. As this is Spain, option B is more likely than you might think.

We prefer to shoot them on the back of the head and let them rot in a gutter. We call it the "Paseito" (Walk)

there you go.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Orlanth wrote:

jouso wrote:

 Orlanth wrote:

1. Pro-union Scots would be best advised not to boycott the referendum even if illegal. Vote anyway, make sure its not one sided, it is not for the voter to determine the legality of the ballot, and it is not illegal of itself to vote in a ballot that is illegal.

Again, why? Why would supporters of one party knowingly participate in a publicity stunt organised by the opposing party?

Just because I say "this is a referendum" it doesn't make it so.

Ok. By encouraging the populace not to boycott the ballot you prevent a whitewash result. 90% is pretty damning, its the opposite of the sweet spot. Had nearer 100% of those polled been pro-indy it would appear to be a North Korean election and a joke. There are exceptions to that, but only where the position of the local populace is exceptionally clear, which isnt the case in Catalonia. This can be true locally to you though,, Gibraltar is one such case.
90% is a clear indication of massive support for independence.

Next is it a stunt though? No. Ballot papers were delivered everywhere, the voting booth placement map was not fixed or slanted to make it more difficult to vote in areas known to have strong pro-Spanish community. I cannot write off a ballot that is not of itself rigged that showed fair and open distribution as a stunt.

You are let complaining that the Catalan parliament didn't go through proper procedures, but their error is less than those opposed. If Rajoy had not intervened with the ballot stations and simply disavowed the election results we might not be having this conversation. Pro-Catalonian independence crowds would be smaller, pro-Spain crowds larger and you would have more time for a breather. Nobody would be forced into a position to dissolve parliaments or issue criminal warrants, extra time for dialogue would occur.
It is then that a ballot result could be contested on reasons of legality in the courts, there would be zeitgeist for a UDI declaration, and no need to rush one either.

jouso wrote:

Let's forget Scotland and to go the other example: Do you accept the Crimean referendum? Do you support Russia annexing Crimea based on that?

Putin invades Crimea with a military force while a pro-Russian Ukrainian government leaves the door open for them. Most non Russian speaking populace of Crimea have to flee and thus the remaining population is not a fair indication of the whole, No the referendum was illegal because it was issued by an invading force on another nations sovereign territory after removing opposed population base.
However conquest happens, Putin conquered Crimea, I respect him for having the balls to pull off a territorial conquest in a European territory in the 21st century.
Its not legal, but it was mostly bloodless, supported by the remaining population without a holocaust and the Russians aren't going to leave.
It has happened, like Tibet happened, and the cause is lost. So no point making waves.
Instead of complaining about Crimea soldiers have been sent to the Baltic states and the remainder of the Ukraine. Putin knows his neighbours won't be caught napping a second time. Ukraine will have no more pro-Moscow governments to sell them out, and the Baltic states are wide awake to the threat and NATO is deploying token troops in border regions so an unopposed walk in is not possible.




Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Frazzled wrote:

 welshhoppo wrote:
Spain could sort this whole thing out much quicker and far less painful if it just authorised and held a referendum in Catalonia.

Or it just hang all the mayors who supported it. As this is Spain, option B is more likely than you might think.

Puigdemont has already been offered asylum. If he has to leave and there are martyrs left behind; assuming they are imprisoned not executed. I cannot myself believe Madrid would sink that low. Puigdemont would become president-in-exile, the true leader of the Catalan people, and hyped as expected, maybe even 'destined' to return. Give him a makeover to get rid of his 60's hairstyle and he is ready.
He would become a mythical great leader like Mandela was touted to be. Mandela was actually a corrupt incompetent, and that was untested because he was in prison, but he knew how to play the messiah card given to him by supporters he had no contact with. Unlike Mandela cannot fault Puigdemont's smarts one bit, and thus to give him a mythical leader persona would be a very dangerous mistake.

https://www.politico.eu/article/belgian-minister-puigdemont-can-apply-for-asylum-here/

Why not? I would.

jouso wrote:

 Orlanth wrote:


You can post a hundred pie charts, but when on the day of the referendum the result says 90% the other way your excuse had better be 'vote rigging', as its the only one that counts. Sadly for you the vote does not appear to have been rigged or interfered with, except by the Spanish police, on orders from Madrid, to oppress the voters by force.
It doesn't look good however you slice it.

Again. It was not a referendum. It was a glorified single-party event, just like the previous one. Which is why only one part of the electorate showed up.

Would you accept as legitimate a Scottish referedum held at the SNP national convention and where only the SNP campaigned? Do you accept the Crimean 2014 referendum as valid? On a different scale, this is the same here.

Except that with the voting % and results you would need to have ridiculously high % of non-voters to be pro-remain unless there was major voting fraud. Like 40% of votes being fraudulant votes.

Easy to say "most of stay voters didn't vote" but the ratio would have to be pretty ridiculously high for that to be true. Or major voting fraud.

 Orlanth wrote:

jouso wrote:

 Orlanth wrote:

1. Pro-union Scots would be best advised not to boycott the referendum even if illegal. Vote anyway, make sure its not one sided, it is not for the voter to determine the legality of the ballot, and it is not illegal of itself to vote in a ballot that is illegal.

Again, why? Why would supporters of one party knowingly participate in a publicity stunt organised by the opposing party?

Just because I say "this is a referendum" it doesn't make it so.

Ok. By encouraging the populace not to boycott the ballot you prevent a whitewash result. 90% is pretty damning, its the opposite of the sweet spot. Had nearer 100% of those polled been pro-indy it would appear to be a North Korean election and a joke. There are exceptions to that, but only where the position of the local populace is exceptionally clear, which isnt the case in Catalonia. This can be true locally to you though,, Gibraltar is one such case.
90% is a clear indication of massive support for independence.

Next is it a stunt though? No. Ballot papers were delivered everywhere, the voting booth placement map was not fixed or slanted to make it more difficult to vote in areas known to have strong pro-Spanish community. I cannot write off a ballot that is not of itself rigged that showed fair and open distribution as a stunt.

You are let complaining that the Catalan parliament didn't go through proper procedures, but their error is less than those opposed. If Rajoy had not intervened with the ballot stations and simply disavowed the election results we might not be having this conversation. Pro-Catalonian independence crowds would be smaller, pro-Spain crowds larger and you would have more time for a breather. Nobody would be forced into a position to dissolve parliaments or issue criminal warrants, extra time for dialogue would occur.
It is then that a ballot result could be contested on reasons of legality in the courts, there would be zeitgeist for a UDI declaration, and no need to rush one either.

There is more to a referendum than just saying it is. It needs a census, to ensure everyone who has a right to vote can vote a single time (it didn't). It needs properly organised yes and no campaigns (again, it didn't), but above all it needs an independent electoral authority, of which there wasn't. The votes are collected and tallied by the same people who wants a yes result. Why would anyone voting no bother?

But still, the most important issue is that the vote was called through an illegal law. The Catalan parliament did not have the power to call a referendum, it tried to appropriate that through a law for which they didn't have enough majority to pass. That's why it was cancelled by the courts and why everyone except those who wanted to make a show out of it just stayed away. And on those wanting to make a show I'm of course including the central govt.

This is not really the place to go on about the Crimean referendum, for those interested here are a few links.

Why the Crimean Referendum Is Illegitimate
https://www.cfr.org/interview/why-crimean-referendum-illegitimate

This is an issue I had to follow pretty close since my Ukrainian distributor is/was located in Simferopol and there are still tons of legal and commercial issues around (for starters my Russian distributor is in Novorrossiysk), so feel free to continue discussion somewhere else.

 Orlanth wrote:

 jhe90 wrote:

And yes, well Rayjoy is likely feeling the knives being sharpened in own party and such. If he gets up and causes them to lose a entire chunk of Spain then he goes down as the man who broke up Spain.

A name I'm sure he very very willing to avoid.

Ego is a compelling but unsound motivator. And Rajoy from accounts here is more self centered than average.

 jhe90 wrote:

They waiting and getting council and advice from other European leaders makes sense. The first time they fetched up royaly, they will not get a second chance without the result being major FUBAR.

Perhaps you misread me slightly. Due to the severity of the moment, I don't think any advice from Germany, France or Brussels will be by request.

True. I think secretly that the Spanish though the EU said a internal matter might have a strong hand in negotiations with Catalonia and its leadership.

Taking some degree of charge, acting as a intermidate between the two. The EU values its unity or at least perceived unity greatly.

Spain's Chief Prosecutor calls for charges of rebellion and sedition aginst Catalan leaders

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41802900

Well, let's have a round of applause for the Spanish government. Way to go. This will be sure to calm tensions no end...

There are times when I despair at the sheer stupidity of Western leaders.

The light touch was needed to defuse this, not all guns blazing!

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
Spain's Chief Prosecutor calls for charges of rebellion and sedition aginst Catalan leaders

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41802900

Well, let's have a round of applause for the Spanish government. Way to go. This will be sure to calm tensions no end...

There are times when I despair at the sheer stupidity of Western leaders.

The light touch was needed to defuse this, not all guns blazing!

See! I knew Spain would not disappoint. They are made of sterner stuff. Texans have full knowledge if Spain's methods for handling customer complaints.

Mixed messages in the press. I read them as they broke very late last night but was too tired to come back and comment.

So Puigdemont can run for office if he is not in prison. Well, it has one clear signal, zero compromise. Were Puigdemont to run it would be on Madrid's terms, even if he were not facing any charges. However the comment itself makes clear that despite justice being a procedure, and the procedure takes time the process can be handwaved away for convenience.

Either' 'its out of our hands and is a matter for the judiciary' or its a cat and mouse game with the law. Alfonso Dastis muddied the waters somewhat, but made it open to implication that the legal process is merely a convenience.

I was watching France24 last night, English language channel. This news outlet is wholly owned by the French government. It is also comments in support of the Madrid government and it's supporters. Sky, BBC both tried to have some perspective, and sought opinions from multiple perspectives. France24 had none. Interesting that. Methinks Paris may have been spooked by events.

This crisis being a fly in the goblet of the EU project thing is looking like its true then. France is rolling out big wheels propaganda it appears, but this wont be confirmed without seeing more France24 coverage and looking for bias over time.

According to France 24 the unity demonstration in Barcelona yesterday had a million attendees. That is not that unreasonable, though crowds that large anywhere are exceptionally rare these are exceptional circumstances. However the crowd appears to be mostly young adult, though admittedly we saw only a portion and would have to account for 20% of the entire Catalan population.
Either France24 is exagerrating wildly, or the crowd was bussed in, or both.

 Orlanth wrote:

Either France24 is exagerrating wildly, or the crowd was bussed in, or both.

Did you question when those numbers were reported about the pro-indy demonstrations?

THe BBC said 300,000 at the unity rally.

Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:Spain's Chief Prosecutor calls for charges of rebellion and sedition aginst Catalan leaders

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41802900

Well, let's have a round of applause for the Spanish government. Way to go. This will be sure to calm tensions no end...

There are times when I despair at the sheer stupidity of Western leaders.

The light touch was needed to defuse this, not all guns blazing!

Orlanth wrote:Mixed messages in the press. I read them as they broke very late last night but was too tired to come back and comment.

So Puigdemont can run for office if he is not in prison. Well, it has one clear signal, zero compromise. Were Puigdemont to run it would be on Madrid's terms, even if he were not facing any charges. However the comment itself makes clear that despite justice being a procedure, and the procedure takes time the process can be handwaved away for convenience.

Either' 'its out of our hands and is a matter for the judiciary' or its a cat and mouse game with the law. Alfonso Dastis muddied the waters somewhat, but made it open to implication that the legal process is merely a convenience.

I was watching France24 last night, English language channel. This news outlet is wholly owned by the French government. It is also comments in support of the Madrid government and it's supporters. Sky, BBC both tried to have some perspective, and sought opinions from multiple perspectives. France24 had none. Interesting that. Methinks Paris may have been spooked by events.

This crisis being a fly in the goblet of the EU project thing is looking like its true then. France is rolling out big wheels propaganda it appears, but this wont be confirmed without seeing more France24 coverage and looking for bias over time.

According to France 24 the unity demonstration in Barcelona yesterday had a million attendees. That is not that unreasonable, though crowds that large anywhere are exceptionally rare these are exceptional circumstances. However the crowd appears to be mostly young adult, though admittedly we saw only a portion and would have to account for 20% of the entire Catalan population.
Either France24 is exagerrating wildly, or the crowd was bussed in, or both.

Spain has acted as normal, they seeking charges against the Catalan leader with some 25 + years in jail...

sure that's going to calm the waters. He made a run for Belgium, his own police where told not to arrest him and seem they followed through on that. he made the border, they did not stop him.

Others who go to work face similar charges but that's going to look so much like some kind of dictatorship. Political prisoners, jeez. Im sure Catalonia will forget that and the 900 people there thugs beat up.

EU complicit as hell.

SO SO glad we are leaving! Should of run to Gibraltar, we should offer him protection there, and its a act of war to invade it against a fellow Nato member!
Spain would of loved that one.

Well Gibralter is British. The track record of Spain vs. Britain is about the same as Spain vs. the US.

Well, to get back to the main topic, it is reported by the BBC that Puigdemont has gone to Brussels. This presumably is to avoid the possibility of arrest for sedition. He will find it hard to fight an election from there, but may score points as a "martyr" to Spanish despotism. He might score more points by returning and being arrested.

Could the independentists have overplayed their hand? If they don't have sufficient public support to guarantee their freedom to fight the election, the unionists will have an easier time of it. However, the best course of action may be to hold full and free elections with an amnesty for Puigdemont and the others so they can campaign.

Why exactly would spain want to calm the waters here? They can crush their opposition right now. And they should - if they want to maintain their countries unity. Did anyone honestly see this turning out any different?




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 Kilkrazy wrote:
Well, to get back to the main topic, it is reported by the BBC that Puigdemont has gone to Brussels. This presumably is to avoid the possibility of arrest for sedition. He will find it hard to fight an election from there, but may score points as a "martyr" to Spanish despotism. He might score more points by returning and being arrested.

Could the independentists have overplayed their hand? If they don't have sufficient public support to guarantee their freedom to fight the election, the unionists will have an easier time of it. However, the best course of action may be to hold full and free elections with an amnesty for Puigdemont and the others so they can campaign.

Team Independence has been over playing their hand the entire time. They don't have the support. They don't have an army. Puig will be lucky if he is allowed to return to Spain.

 Xenomancers wrote:
Why exactly would spain want to calm the waters here? They can crush their opposition right now. And they should - if they want to maintain their countries unity. Did anyone honestly see this turning out any different?




Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Kilkrazy wrote:
Well, to get back to the main topic, it is reported by the BBC that Puigdemont has gone to Brussels. This presumably is to avoid the possibility of arrest for sedition. He will find it hard to fight an election from there, but may score points as a "martyr" to Spanish despotism. He might score more points by returning and being arrested.

Could the independentists have overplayed their hand? If they don't have sufficient public support to guarantee their freedom to fight the election, the unionists will have an easier time of it. However, the best course of action may be to hold full and free elections with an amnesty for Puigdemont and the others so they can campaign.

Team Independence has been over playing their hand the entire time. They don't have the support. They don't have an army. Puig will be lucky if he is allowed to return to Spain.

Exactly.

Spain should have wanted to calm the waters.. This crackdown will only breed long term resentment and sympathy among the international community for the seperatists. They set themselves up for a civil war in the next 50-100 years.

Well it sounds like Puigdemont has run off to form some sort of government in exile in Belgium

(since although an EU member cannot grant political asylum to citizens of another member state, Belgium or at least the relevant part of it has never ratified that part of the treaty so maybe it can..... it can certainly tie up any extradition request in court for years)

and his political party while it is claiming he is still the president of the new Catalan republic is also going to go along with the new elections called by the Madrid government

 jhe90 wrote:


SO SO glad we are leaving! Should of run to Gibraltar, we should offer him protection there, and its a act of war to invade it against a fellow Nato member!
Spain would of loved that one.

That would be a fun stunt but would be very Joffreyesque. The UK, and Gibraltar, needs to stay out of this.

Yes the EU is complicit, and Francoist songs and Nazi salutes were both seen at the unity rally according to reports today. Those pro-union attendees have every right and reason to disown them.

The interesting thing is what is behind the flight of Puigdemont to Belgium. apparently it is not an invite by the Belgian government, I suspected it was and the EU was trying to lure and contain him and then basically control his output. Instead more interestingly he has been given sanctum by Flemish separatists who have their own autonomous region, and are off script when it comes to EU's harmonious ever closer union. So rather than containment this is an opportunity to be a long term thorn in side.
Some of the Madrid government have done their nut about Puigdemont and five others asylum was guaranteed for by the Flemish separatist government. Threats of long prison terms, 30 years for Puigdemont, become jokes if the Spanish can't legally reach him, and that is on top of the price of the heavy handed approach they are using. Seems like the pro-indy group are looking for a long term living martyr strategy. Puigdemont will hold Assange like interviews from Belgium and be difficult to silence.
I wonder if anyone might thing he is due an accident?




Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Xenomancers wrote:

Team Independence has been over playing their hand the entire time. They don't have the support. They don't have an army. Puig will be lucky if he is allowed to return to Spain.

They have played the hand they had, and played it well.

No outright majority, no military force, no international recognition.

Yet they have engineered circumstances to make a credible formal UDI and forced Madrid to take heavy handed action. From one point of view the Catalans are an oppressed people again, that is excellent moral capital. Now the strategy changes to a longer term hearts and minds strategy. The seed is planted, when the economy next has a downturn and people are grumbling, then will be the time to get people to remember their dream of 'freedom', remind them about the heavy handedness and corruption of Madrid and offer 'hope' and 'change'. Two words that allow a demagogue to rise offering a brighter future. People are fickle and fall for this easily, time and again.

I cannot fault the strategy being employed here. Sure its dishonest and underhand, but it wasn't bloody and it made a huge amount of progress, more s than at first appears.

Spain has sent a competent overlord to administer Catalonia though. They got this much right. Soraya Saenz de Santamaria is known for having little charisma, but is hard nosed, visibly competent and has managed to avoid being hit by the scandal rife within the PP party. In other words "honest".

I wondere whose idea it was to place direct control of events in hands other than Rajoy's, the Spanish government or concerned EU mandarins?


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The pro-indy mouthpiece online news channel has a new video. Interesting to watch as it hints about future strategy.




The above is a good source from the point of looking into the mindset and strategems of the pro-independence faction in Catalonia.

6:18ff The pro-indy strategy for the December regional election. We already discussed theory on what they might do here on Dakka, watch the 'spoiler'.

 Orlanth wrote:


They have played the hand they had, and played it well.

No outright majority, no military force, no international recognition.

I can't agree to that. They have driven an almost irreconciliable wedge between two sides of Catalonia that had for the most part lived harmoniously side by side. They have sent away almost 2.000 companies away (losing over half a % point of GDP in one week). And, what's more important, they have awakened a unionist movement which didn't exist as such, leading the way for more confrontation in the future.

They have neglected their government duties for the last 2-3 years, put the prosperity of the next generation of Catalans in jeopardy, and there are some very good indications that all of this was done to draw attention away from some of the worst corruption scandals.

Tactical stalemate (and that's being generous) for a strategic major defeat.

jouso wrote:

 Orlanth wrote:


They have played the hand they had, and played it well.

No outright majority, no military force, no international recognition.

I can't agree to that. They have driven an almost irreconciliable wedge between two sides of Catalonia that had for the most part lived harmoniously side by side. They have sent away almost 2.000 companies away (losing over half a % point of GDP in one week). And, what's more important, they have awakened a unionist movement which didn't exist as such, leading the way for more confrontation in the future.

You don't see the wedge but this campaign has been long ongoing, so others do.
You don't like developments, but nobody is asking you to.

Puigdemont has played his hand well, and that is ongoing, not over.

Today he held a press conference, in Brussels, in English. Accusing Madrid of heavy handedness and calling on Catalans for peaceful opposition only (violent seperatism could undo what the pro-indy movement has achieved).
On top it off being given reassurances of asylum from the autonomous Flemish government, which has this power within Belgium, and despite facing charges and threat of extremely heavy sentencing, 30 years at current count. He is making claiming to make press conferences in Brussels not you asylum purposes (thinly technically true as Ghent is offering asylum) but because Brussels is the heart of the EU.

Now international pres won't be focused on Puigdemont for long, next topical shiny will draw attention away. Best Madrid can do is try a business as usual approach and consolidate in Catalonia, however because Madrid is making heavy handed threats, failing to implement them will lose faith and control over time; unless they consolidate media control heavily, which is not impossible as the Catalonia broadcasting services are directly under Madrid's control now, and other EU countries are receptive to propaganda as shown. But memories and hopes don't go away.

jouso wrote:

Tactical stalemate (and that's being generous) for a strategic major defeat.

You are reading this very wrong. A crackdown was inevitable, and Madrid could bully the province any time it wants to, and the EU is afraid of further seperatism. Recognised independence was not a viable current goal, but it can be set up for later. This has been achieved.

Puigdemont has moved over for new separatist leaders to take centre stage, they need a charismatic now in Barcelona that Madrid cannot legally touch. He can cheerlead from Belgium, and remind Catalans that their lawfully democratically elected government, removed by dictat had already prior to its removal held a vote for UDI based on the mandate given them by the people; and that it is only a matter of time.

Spain will feth up soon, the pieces are in place, wait for events, keep a shiny demogogue with no attached scandal in the wings to offer 'hope' and 'change'. Next global recession maybe, maybe sooner if the PP feths up badly enough.

I'm confused about why the rebel leaders have fled to Belgium, if they are wanted in Spain won't Europol just issue a warrant for their arrest?

The EU was perfectly happy to accept the separatism of Czecho and Slovakia, also child states like Croatia and Slovenia. I don't see why the EU wouldn't accept Catalonia as a member.

 Kroem wrote:
I'm confused about why the rebel leaders have fled to Belgium, if they are wanted in Spain won't Europol just issue a warrant for their arrest?

The Flemish regional autonomous government has guaranteed political asylum. They have the legal power, and political motive to do this. Puigdemont cant be touched by lawful means so long as that state of grace persists.


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 Kilkrazy wrote:
The EU was perfectly happy to accept the separatism of Czecho and Slovakia, also child states like Croatia and Slovenia. I don't see why the EU wouldn't accept Catalonia as a member.

Situation was very different. The others were former Eastern bloc countries with a forced hegemony, either from the Soviets or Tito that played different racial groups against each other to maintain control. That is why when Yugoslavia unraveled it did so with the manner and brutality that it did. Czech Republic and Slovakia were more or less an even split of one larger territory, there wasn't one nation breaking away from another, the old nation ceased to exist.

Catalonia on the other hand has direct parallels to Lombardy, Flanders, Sicily, Brittany, Bavaria, Wales, Northern Ireland, and Scotland. Though the EU is not concerned for the latter three they are concerned about the rest because the nations involved are core EU nation states and would face upheaval if a successful independence bid occurred. Also Madrid wants core unity and constitutionally disavows secession so Brussels has to respect that sovereign choice by a member state.