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 Farseer_V2 wrote:

 Gene St. Ealer wrote:

 Farseer_V2 wrote:
News flash! GW uses normal manufacturing predictive methodology to determine which SKUs to produce in what numbers.

Holy hell what a stupid conspiracy theory. Do you know why they've got SMs in stock and not Xenos? SMs sell so they produce a higher number of the kits pre-launch based on existing data. It isn't some attempt to slight xenos players (I exclusively play Eldar here) - it is the nature of predicting excepted stock turn over (which is a sound business practice).

Lol, predictive methodology sounds like something a tech savvy company would use, not an old-timer operation like GW. You've got to be kidding me if you don't think GW has pushed marines to the detriment of other factions. Heck, release a Xenos kit to get the loud whiners on FB and other platforms to shut up! Even if the sales numbers say people buy marines (which yeah, they certainly do, I'm not arguing that), it makes you look bad when people whine (justifiably!) about how they can't buy the Xenos kits. Sure, GW is doing pretty well these days. But I think they could improve sales and goodwill by sharing the love a little bit.

I can source their predictive methodology by virtue of having worked for GW in a manufacturing support role for almost 9 years (no longer employed). GW is a business who produces what sells and what sells more than anything else is Space Marines so when you're forecasting a release you are going to produce SM kits at a much higher volume with better back stock (because of turn over vs. lead time) because you can have faith that come inventory time you aren't going to be sitting on excess product. Forecasting for production, especially during a new release is very difficult because you have to rely on previous similar scenarios to set quantities - it is an inexact science at best and one that can be cripplingly expensive if you get it wrong from a tax on physical inventory stand point. And even if they'd predicted perfectly you cannot account for a significant loss in production capacity such as losing actual power for a long period of time. You run the machines and you produce the SKUs that move and when you get a break you catch up on the slower SKUs - that's simply how the manufacturing business works, I always have to pay the bills before I catch up on the lower end movers.

There is no sharing the love - there is finding the best possible way to operate using the currently available production capacity to generate the most revenue as possible.


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 Marmatag wrote:
It's just reboxing. You can still order it from your FLGS through the distributor.

My girlfriend got me a ton of genestealers for xmas.

Depends on who the distributor is. For many stores the distributor is GW, some stores still stock through Alliance who may have some back order they're sitting on.

I'll help you with the exact science. If you produced 5000 carnifex kits. They would sell practically overnight.

No retailer enjoys leaving money on the table. It's been documented there is a capacity issue due to the runaway success of a bunch of lines and a Heavy release schedule. If GW could keep everything in stock they would as they know they're losing cash, ergo they clearly cannot and have production capacity issues.

If they just said "screw it make 5,000 Exocrines" for example, they'd be unable to make something else. I've worked as a buyer for businesses with cash flow shortages and it's very similar... you do your best to manage the situation knowing you can't get a perfect result, knowing you're leaving shelves unstocked and losing sales, but trying to make a fist of it.

It's a sucky situation and I'd imagine they're doing all they can to turn it around.

sossen wrote:
I love the conspiracy theory that GW are pushing SM to the detriment of other factions. All of those SM fanboys at GW HQ making irrational business decisions just to push their favorite faction. Can't they see that if they just release more eldar models they will sell like hotcakes?

No one's calling this an irrational business decision, but just look at what happened with Canoness Viridian last year: selling "beyond our wildest expectations". If you don't think that indicates that GW was somewhat out of touch as to what the customers want ("was" mostly being the operative word there), then you're the conspiracy theorist here.

They're just now doing market research -- my hope is that their market research, like the community engagement survey, indicates that there's more of a love for certain factions than GW realizes, and they make new kits and up production for those factions. If it shows that GW is making the exact right number of Space Marines, that's fine too; at least the effort was put forth.

What are people worried about having inventory on hand? Plastic models aren't particularly perishable. Having inventory means not having to have another production run for that model as people buy them over time.

Also gw can directly influence demand by adjusting rules. If they want to maintain a low supply they can create low demand to prevent using resources on producing that model. An example of fall this is tau auxiliaries. kroot hounds and vespid were given good rules, meaning high demand but supply was immediately shorted meaning less sales of those and other tau models. On top of that the models are failcast so non -waac players lost interest.

If gw decided to not have any backup sites for production, either contracted or internally invested, that's their own fault. The demand for product is growing but the company doesn't seem to be trying to grow around it. Corporate growth isn't easy by any means but they are so far behind the market. Sure they're making money, just not as much as thru should be.

Finally, their projections seem biased. Well supported factions will sell better. Duh. Then they assume lower sales factions are unwanted and refuse to support them. Repeat. Sisters etc aren't selling poorly for lack of interest, it's for lack of quality. I'd have two more armies if not for failcast and out of stock models.

sossen wrote:
I love the conspiracy theory that GW are pushing SM to the detriment of other factions. All of those SM fanboys at GW HQ making irrational business decisions just to push their favorite faction. Can't they see that if they just release more eldar models they will sell like hotcakes?

to be fair, there's a perfectly rational argument that when product lines are unavailable, go long periods of time without updates, or are only available via special order, they're going to have problems selling. Thats not an unreasonable assertion. All depends on wheere you see the chicken-egg cycle at. Sometimes it's a bit of both

 Xenomancers wrote:

 Marmatag wrote:
It's just reboxing. You can still order it from your FLGS through the distributor.

My girlfriend got me a ton of genestealers for xmas.

Geenstealers havn't been out of stock anytime I have looked at the nid kits online. Tried to order from a GW store but they just use the online system to make their special orders. Are you saying that if I went to a non GW store and had the owner order from the distributer they would be able to get me carnifex?

Probably.

They have a line direct to the distributors. And, they should be able to tell you if it's on back order, when they go to put in their order.

Some store owners who don't have a big 40k presence may not be able to figure out how to get this done. But shops with a 40k emphasis can do this.

 Kap'n Krump wrote:
Hell, I don't think ork wierdboyz have been for sale since 8th dropped. Like, at all. You can't find them on ebay, amazon, or any physical store I've visited.

yea.. but we ork players persevere... my weird boys are nob bodies, some odds and ends bits and green stuff for energy coming off of them holding literally twigs (the wood is so realistic because it is actual wood).

Shas'O'Ceris wrote:
What are people worried about having inventory on hand? Plastic models aren't particularly perishable. Having inventory means not having to have another production run for that model as people buy them over time.

Also gw can directly influence demand by adjusting rules. If they want to maintain a low supply they can create low demand to prevent using resources on producing that model. An example of fall this is tau auxiliaries. kroot hounds and vespid were given good rules, meaning high demand but supply was immediately shorted meaning less sales of those and other tau models. On top of that the models are failcast so non -waac players lost interest.

If gw decided to not have any backup sites for production, either contracted or internally invested, that's their own fault. The demand for product is growing but the company doesn't seem to be trying to grow around it. Corporate growth isn't easy by any means but they are so far behind the market. Sure they're making money, just not as much as thru should be.

Finally, their projections seem biased. Well supported factions will sell better. Duh. Then they assume lower sales factions are unwanted and refuse to support them. Repeat. Sisters etc aren't selling poorly for lack of interest, it's for lack of quality. I'd have two more armies if not for failcast and out of stock models.

Let's break this down:

1) Why are people worried about inventory on hand? Because if that inventory is on hand at the end of the fiscal year it impacts the tax bill, you have to pay a tax on the value of your current stock. The goal is to keep stock levels finely balanced to prevent high lead times without creating a large backlog that will increase your taxes. This also ignores the dangers of having high amounts of stock on hand such as theft, fire, damage, etc. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say you have no experience in the manufacturing industry?

2) GW decided not to have back up sites contracted or otherwise. Are you aware of the cost to set up an injection molding facility? GW cannot outsource their manufacturing due to nearly piece of the process being proprietary so that's right out of the window. Now for them to set up their own internal sites they need to source land, injection machines, find a location where the infrastructure supports the needs of injection molding. This isn't a small process or outlay cost, no its a significant investment that requires board approval and can take years to successfully implement. The idea that GW isn't working to grow to meet their demands is foolish when you consider it through the lens of practical application.

3) Forecasting is biased. Do you know what sells even when there are no ongoing releases for it? Space Marines. Do you know what doesn't Tyranids (I use this as an example because its the subject of discussion). The forecasting model is built around not just release sales but consistent sales and average SKU turnover in stores and in at the distribution facilities. There is no refusal to support to anything - it is a matter of allocating resources in the best possible way.

 Farseer_V2 wrote:

This also ignores the dangers of having high amounts of stock on hand such as theft, fire, damage, etc. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say you have no experience in the manufacturing industry?

He is clearly an adept businessman. I am eagerly awaiting the launch of his own company.

I'm not surprised they are not catching up with the nid models. 8th edition is selling like hot cakes right now, and with the reduced manufacturing capability i can easily imagine that they are already struggling to avoid having other kits go out of stock.

Look at the DA line, it's a massacre. They cannot hold up with the last hotness and you ask why tyranids are not getting produced?

 Xenomancers wrote:
How is it possible for a company to fail so badly?

4 months into the edition - they know that demand for models when a new codex comes out is higher than it has ever been. Yet - still - out of stock for all the best models 5 weeks after release. I am just dumbfounded. Was it like this for the other armies?

Same, I've had to go to Amazon to get the kits I need.

This is one the biggeest flaws with just-in-time production quality thinking. If it goes wrong you don't have a buffer of inventory and you can't quickly ramp up production. since you always try to use it to capacity. There's only two ways this gets solved: less demand or more supply. And it doesn't look like demand is slowing down.

We know GW can't increase production untill january so the out of stock problems are going to be staying untill then at least.

There was worldwide months long shortage of isolation material because BASF fethed up their predictions.

Earth127 wrote:
This is one the biggeest flaws with just-in-time production quality thinking. If it goes wrong you don't have a buffer of inventory and you can't quickly ramp up production. since you always try to use it to capacity. There's only two ways this gets solved: less demand or more supply. And it doesn't look like demand is slowing down.

We know GW can't increase production untill january so the out of stock problems are going to be staying untill then at least.

There was worldwide months long shortage of isolation material because BASF fethed up their predictions.

Exactly, and this is why I play multiple armies. Can't get the stuff for my bugs I want right now? No problem, I'll just play with my Marines, or my 30K stuff until I can.

I'm finishing my backlog over here.

The machinery is also prob 3 phase 600v. Good luck on sourcing and installing that. Would take weeks to even plan.

 Xenomancers wrote:
How is it possible for a company to fail so badly?

I am not sure that most companies consider exceptional high customer demand as "failing badly". I could be wrong though.


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 Skawt wrote:
The machinery is also prob 3 phase 600v. Good luck on sourcing and installing that. Would take weeks to even plan.

Industrial mains is 415 vac in GB if I am not mistaken. And you can literally have a generator delivered and connected with hours notice. Although, that is a pretty expensive solution for something the utilities should be able to fix within a couple of hours as well. My guess is that something in the factory broke because of voltage spikes/black holes/salmon migration.

Ha, I can't believe you guys don't see this for what it is. The Tyranids are out of stick because they are dropping the line to make room for a new plastic army, Squats will be returning to take their place as soon as those genestealers get depleted enough.

GAW's stock a year ago was trading at $645 is currently sitting at an all time high of $2500, net income has more than doubled since last year, cash flow has doubled since last year, and revenue is up 50%. Please tell us more about how you think management at GAW don't know what they're doing.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GAW.L/financials?p=GAW.L

 Caveman wrote:
GAW's stock a year ago was trading at $645 is currently sitting at an all time high of $2500, net income has more than doubled since last year, cash flow has doubled since last year, and revenue is up 50%. Please tell us more about how you think management at GAW don't know what they're doing.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GAW.L/financials?p=GAW.L

Dude, the strawman is old and tired -- no one is saying the management don't know what they're doing NOW. But historically, they've managed to bungle a lot of choices.

Makes sense though, it must have been a very long while since they were short on means of production.

Talk about a crazy strong sign of success.


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Shas'O'Ceris wrote:
What are people worried about having inventory on hand? Plastic models aren't particularly perishable. Having inventory means not having to have another production run for that model as people buy them over time.

Cost of opportunity, cost of production, cost of storage, cost of maintenance (oh hey we just bundled the old rules with those 5.000 boxes, can you change them kthx)

There are many good reasons to do what they did.

What they did not anticipate is that they would actually start growing again, I don't think anyone expected it either so ... w/e

They are probably making more tactical marines, because all the WAAC players need them to win tournaments.

Also, I think their past experience with Tyranid codices is probably not a huge increase in sales, but more like Tyranid players leaving hobby.

Im sorry, I try to be as nice as possible on this forum, but I just have to state that the levels of entitlement on this thread are staggering. You have no idea whats going on. I do not either. But I can assure you that this is not aimed at you and most certainly not the first time this has happened.

When the Legions codex hit almost a year ago GW ran out of nearly half the chaos lineup. Took them months to restock.

Kits dont poof into reality and there is limit capacity at the production level. So when they (GW) do something right and release a popular update to a range there is a chance they will have more demand than supply, It has happened before and it will happen again.

In america we have this problem that the hottest christmas toys seem to sell out quickly and supply cannot meet demand, we even have after market sellers who stock pile in anticipation. GW is not alone in this issue.

I am not a GW apologist. I am just not entitled.

Table wrote:
Im sorry, I try to be as nice as possible on this forum, but I just have to state that the levels of entitlement on this thread are staggering. You have no idea whats going on. I do not either. But I can assure you that this is not aimed at you and most certainly not the first time this has happened.

When the Legions codex hit almost a year ago GW ran out of nearly half the chaos lineup. Took them months to restock.

Kits dont poof into reality and there is limit capacity at the production level. So when they (GW) do something right and release a popular update to a range there is a chance they will have more demand than supply, It has happened before and it will happen again.

In america we have this problem that the hottest christmas toys seem to sell out quickly and supply cannot meet demand, we even have after market sellers who stock pile in anticipation. GW is not alone in this issue.

I am not a GW apologist. I am just not entitled.

My apologies if I've come off as entitled. GW is a company, they'll do as they well please and if they're missing out on some money from me buying Tyranids, I'm almost 99% sure they're recouping it from 3 or 4 others buying marines; I get that. But the problem with literally having over half the army out of stock (I'm too lazy to check for Nids right now, but that really doesn't look to be much of an exaggeration in the US at least) is that it means that new players are all going to be getting into the same armies, playing very similar lists. Nids are actually one of the few Xenos armies that have a mostly plastic range; if you're not into the blocky Mary Sues, the hungry bugs used to make for a great alternative. But how can you rampage through Marine lines with your Carnifex if you can't buy a Carnifex?

Just saying -- I hope GW's able to fix these production issues soon.

Table wrote:
Im sorry, I try to be as nice as possible on this forum, but I just have to state that the levels of entitlement on this thread are staggering. You have no idea whats going on. I do not either. But I can assure you that this is not aimed at you and most certainly not the first time this has happened.

When the Legions codex hit almost a year ago GW ran out of nearly half the chaos lineup. Took them months to restock.

Kits dont poof into reality and there is limit capacity at the production level. So when they (GW) do something right and release a popular update to a range there is a chance they will have more demand than supply, It has happened before and it will happen again.

In america we have this problem that the hottest christmas toys seem to sell out quickly and supply cannot meet demand, we even have after market sellers who stock pile in anticipation. GW is not alone in this issue.

I am not a GW apologist. I am just not entitled.

This isn't a new company, they are not stepping into the unknown here. The fact that after all these years of making games and related miniatures they are surprised by the demand is itself sign of poor management. Production takes time but they probably have release schedules for more than 12 months in relation to books, so easy to match production to launches.

The backlog is allegedly put on needing to upgrade their electrics in their manufacturing facility, but this isn't a problem that dropped a couple of weeks ago and is indicative of not having a proper repair and renewals policy. Again poor management.

They could likely have increased sales by a significant number in the year if they had sufficient stock is a fact that even the whitest of knights can agree. What we don't all agree on is whether this is considered a sign of success. They have increased profits but not at the rate they market demand would have allowed, so again questionable management.

Dumbest comment here is the "they don't hold stock because they pay tax on it" - the opposite of this is more close to the truth and more investment in raw materials and stock is likely to reduce profit and so tax for that period not increase tax.

 ruminator wrote:


This isn't a new company, they are not stepping into the unknown here. The fact that after all these years of making games and related miniatures they are surprised by the demand is itself sign of poor management. Production takes time but they probably have release schedules for more than 12 months in relation to books, so easy to match production to launches.

The backlog is allegedly put on needing to upgrade their electrics in their manufacturing facility, but this isn't a problem that dropped a couple of weeks ago and is indicative of not having a proper repair and renewals policy. Again poor management.

They could likely have increased sales by a significant number in the year if they had sufficient stock is a fact that even the whitest of knights can agree. What we don't all agree on is whether this is considered a sign of success. They have increased profits but not at the rate they market demand would have allowed, so again questionable management.

Dumbest comment here is the "they don't hold stock because they pay tax on it" - the opposite of this is more close to the truth and more investment in raw materials and stock is likely to reduce profit and so tax for that period not increase tax.

Launch schedules 12 months in advance - if you didn't read they still use a forecasting model to predict production levels. Regardless of what you think regarding stock increasing tax bill you are incorrect - at the end of the fiscal year companies are required to pay taxes on existing stock. I know this because I actually worked at GW in a role that was closely tied to keeping this figure as low as possible. This is an actual fact, the goal is to consistently to keep stock at as small a level of as possible to decrease stock and costs associated. the goal is to have no significant lead time but to not sit on stock for longer than 3 months.

Back Log due to upgrades needed at the facility. The power grid that supports their main manufacturing is being impacted by government construction causing an excess draw on the grid. They can't account for that, there is no upgrade they can pay for to prevent that.

Increased sales with better stock - this is obviously 100% true but as they say hindsight is 20/20. The counter point is they could have over produced and been operating at a liability of high stock levels and low turnover.

 Gene St. Ealer wrote:

 Caveman wrote:
GAW's stock a year ago was trading at $645 is currently sitting at an all time high of $2500, net income has more than doubled since last year, cash flow has doubled since last year, and revenue is up 50%. Please tell us more about how you think management at GAW don't know what they're doing.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GAW.L/financials?p=GAW.L

Dude, the strawman is old and tired -- no one is saying the management don't know what they're doing NOW. But historically, they've managed to bungle a lot of choices.

I'm having a hard time how you classify that as a strawman. This thread makes the claim that GW is currently clueless. His evidences is a strong indicator that they are not in many respects.

It's probably time to stop living in the past. The 'Future of FAQs' WarCom post should have been more than enough.

 Farseer_V2 wrote:

Shas'O'Ceris wrote:
What are people worried about having inventory on hand? Plastic models aren't particularly perishable. Having inventory means not having to have another production run for that model as people buy them over time.

Also gw can directly influence demand by adjusting rules. If they want to maintain a low supply they can create low demand to prevent using resources on producing that model. An example of fall this is tau auxiliaries. kroot hounds and vespid were given good rules, meaning high demand but supply was immediately shorted meaning less sales of those and other tau models. On top of that the models are failcast so non -waac players lost interest.

If gw decided to not have any backup sites for production, either contracted or internally invested, that's their own fault. The demand for product is growing but the company doesn't seem to be trying to grow around it. Corporate growth isn't easy by any means but they are so far behind the market. Sure they're making money, just not as much as thru should be.

Finally, their projections seem biased. Well supported factions will sell better. Duh. Then they assume lower sales factions are unwanted and refuse to support them. Repeat. Sisters etc aren't selling poorly for lack of interest, it's for lack of quality. I'd have two more armies if not for failcast and out of stock models.

Let's break this down:

1) Why are people worried about inventory on hand? Because if that inventory is on hand at the end of the fiscal year it impacts the tax bill, you have to pay a tax on the value of your current stock. The goal is to keep stock levels finely balanced to prevent high lead times without creating a large backlog that will increase your taxes. This also ignores the dangers of having high amounts of stock on hand such as theft, fire, damage, etc. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say you have no experience in the manufacturing industry?

Can someone in the UK confirm whether or not stock is taxable like that? I know it is in the USA, but you know what they say about assuming ...

Daedalus81 wrote:

 Gene St. Ealer wrote:

 Caveman wrote:
GAW's stock a year ago was trading at $645 is currently sitting at an all time high of $2500, net income has more than doubled since last year, cash flow has doubled since last year, and revenue is up 50%. Please tell us more about how you think management at GAW don't know what they're doing.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GAW.L/financials?p=GAW.L

Dude, the strawman is old and tired -- no one is saying the management don't know what they're doing NOW. But historically, they've managed to bungle a lot of choices.

I'm having a hard time how you classify that as a strawman. This thread makes the claim that GW is currently clueless. His evidences is a strong indicator that they are not in many respects.

It's probably time to stop living in the past. The 'Future of FAQs' WarCom post should have been more than enough.

Alrighty, you're GW, a large, venerable miniatures company with an incredibly valuable, respected IP. Somehow, you find yourself *behind* in the tabletop space, in an era where tabletop games and nerd hobbies are hugely popular. You manage to make a comeback and your stock soars. You've done well, but is that really such a coup? Anyway, this is all beyond the point.

I want to buy Tyranids from GW. I can't -- that kind of sucks. The point of this thread is to commiserate on how that fact kind of sucks.

PS: 'Future of FAQs' has absolutely no bearing on this discussion; if you're going to start a discussion on how great GW's rules are, you should do it in another thread. To put it lightly, that opinion is a tiny bit controversial.

 AndrewGPaul wrote:

 Farseer_V2 wrote:

Shas'O'Ceris wrote:
What are people worried about having inventory on hand? Plastic models aren't particularly perishable. Having inventory means not having to have another production run for that model as people buy them over time.

Also gw can directly influence demand by adjusting rules. If they want to maintain a low supply they can create low demand to prevent using resources on producing that model. An example of fall this is tau auxiliaries. kroot hounds and vespid were given good rules, meaning high demand but supply was immediately shorted meaning less sales of those and other tau models. On top of that the models are failcast so non -waac players lost interest.

If gw decided to not have any backup sites for production, either contracted or internally invested, that's their own fault. The demand for product is growing but the company doesn't seem to be trying to grow around it. Corporate growth isn't easy by any means but they are so far behind the market. Sure they're making money, just not as much as thru should be.

Finally, their projections seem biased. Well supported factions will sell better. Duh. Then they assume lower sales factions are unwanted and refuse to support them. Repeat. Sisters etc aren't selling poorly for lack of interest, it's for lack of quality. I'd have two more armies if not for failcast and out of stock models.

Let's break this down:

1) Why are people worried about inventory on hand? Because if that inventory is on hand at the end of the fiscal year it impacts the tax bill, you have to pay a tax on the value of your current stock. The goal is to keep stock levels finely balanced to prevent high lead times without creating a large backlog that will increase your taxes. This also ignores the dangers of having high amounts of stock on hand such as theft, fire, damage, etc. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say you have no experience in the manufacturing industry?

Can someone in the UK confirm whether or not stock is taxable like that? I know it is in the USA, but you know what they say about assuming ...

I can confirm this, it's total nonsense. He's spouting like he's an expert and industry insider, but his knowledge of UK tax law is NIL. Makes you question the validity of his other statements.

By the way, I've worked in UK Tax for over 25 years now, both 9 years with Inland Revenue (as was) and over 16 years in practice with Top 10/Big 4 firms before he questions my credentials.

Regardless of the laws in the UK - that is how stock is taxed in the US. And to be fair I am not a tax expert in the UK but to my understanding you do have to carry forward unsold stock at cost price in the UK. Consider also that around 40% of what is produced in the UK ends up in the distribution center in Memphis TN. So there is 100% still an impact on tax valuation based on excess stock. You have to consider the impact of being multi-national on a company like GW and how and when they chose to produce.