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Just checking I have my math correct on this one guys. The setup is:

Goff Warboss with Da Killa Klaw and the WT: Brutal but Kunnin'

Friendly Weirdboy gives him Da Fists of Gork and he charges.

Meaning he has 6 exploding attacks, hits on 2s with rerolls, wounds on 2s with rerolls, 4 damage for each failed save.

Since I've been informed that an exploding die is equivalent to rolling 1.1 die per attack, our maths looks like this for melee:

1.1*6*(35/36)*(35/36)*(1/3)*4 = 8.317....

That's almost 9 wounds on the Primarch, but for that last wound we have our trusty attack squig.

1.1*2*(35/36)*(1/3)*(1/3)*2 = 0.475....

Add to that the aproximate 0.388.... you get for a skorcha, and that takes you over 9 wounds!





And then he gets wrecked the following turn when Roboute respawns right in front of him but that's neither here nor there.

Statistically, 9 grots with 9 attacks can kill him. Statistically, a million genestealers attacking simultaneously could also fail to do so.

JJDW wrote:
Just checking I have my math correct on this one guys. The setup is:

Goff Warboss with Da Killa Klaw and the WT: Brutal but Kunnin'

Friendly Weirdboy gives him Da Fists of Gork and he charges.

Meaning he has 6 exploding attacks, hits on 2s with rerolls, wounds on 2s with rerolls, 4 damage for each failed save.

Since I've been informed that an exploding die is equivalent to rolling 1.1 die per attack, our maths looks like this for melee:

1.1*6*(35/36)*(35/36)*(1/3)*4 = 8.317....

That's almost 9 wounds on the Primarch, but for that last wound we have our trusty attack squig.

1.1*2*(35/36)*(1/3)*(1/3)*2 = 0.475....

Add to that the aproximate 0.388.... you get for a skorcha, and that takes you over 9 wounds!





And then he gets wrecked the following turn when Roboute respawns right in front of him but that's neither here nor there.

On average you need to do 10.75 to take into account his resurrection ability.

It's not bad though.

Has a warboss a none insignificant chance of surviving a Guilliman counter attack though? If so, it might increase the chance of having a warboss actually beating him.

Sunny Side Up wrote:Statistically, 9 grots with 9 attacks can kill him. Statistically, a million genestealers attacking simultaneously could also fail to do so.

Statistically in this case meaning: "Assuming average rolls on all dice involved"

epronovost wrote:Has a warboss a none insignificant chance of surviving a Guilliman counter attack though? If so, it might increase the chance of having a warboss actually beating him.

Not really. Warbosses have a 4+ save and since we're using the relic slot for his stabby bits, his best option is either a bunch of gretchin to foster wounds off to (which will probably be blown away by Imperial fire support) or a pain boy (Which giving a 6+ FNP isn't going to cut it)

Hitting on 2's with exploding 6's, rerolling 1's, actually works out to a scenario where you're expected to get more hits than you have attacks.

You expect 1.167 hits per attack.
Next, you have 35/36 chance to wound correctly - wounding on 2s, rerolling 1s.
Then you have a 2/6 chance for him to fail a 3++.

You have 35/36 for some reason in there twice.

Then you multiply by 4.

The total expected damage is:
1.167 hits * (35/36) wounds *(2/6) failed saves *(4) damage *(6) attacks = 9.07

He expects to kill Guilliman on the charge.

Also, if the Warboss dies in a counter-attack he can attack a second time with a Stratagem before dying!

Mind you how it works in practice with 3++, d4 and 9 wounds sometimes you will kill him with overkill , sometimes he will live with 1 wound and total averages. Also you can count on command cp for failed inv save so factor that too. In short unlikely to work suicide run(indeed i would say 1/9 chance he actually dies. 6 attacks. Call it all hit and wound. 2 fail inv save. 8 wounds. Assume 1 extra attack that hits and wounds. 1/3 odds of failing, if failed cp reroll so need to fail it again)

You could also spend 3CP to fight again as after you hit with him again as after he fights it is still your turn to pick a unit to fight and that is where you could kick in the stratagem to select him to fight again.

 Marmatag wrote:
Hitting on 2's with exploding 6's, rerolling 1's, actually works out to a scenario where you're expected to get more hits than you have attacks.

You expect 1.167 hits per attack.
Next, you have 35/36 chance to wound correctly - wounding on 2s, rerolling 1s.
Then you have a 2/6 chance for him to fail a 3++.

You have 35/36 for some reason in there twice.

Then you multiply by 4.

The total expected damage is:
1.167 hits * (35/36) wounds *(2/6) failed saves *(4) damage *(6) attacks = 9.07

He expects to kill Guilliman on the charge.

No, he's still under 50% to kill him because of the 4+ resurrect.

As others have stated though you have the 3cp to fight again if he does!

 Tibs Ironblood wrote:
You could also spend 3CP to fight again as after you hit with him again as after he fights it is still your turn to pick a unit to fight and that is where you could kick in the stratagem to select him to fight again.

Only if you have another unit that has charged or some other unit within 1" of an enemy. If your warboss is your only charging unit you don't have a chance to use the stratagem before your opponent has a chance to swing back with Gulliman.

Going strictly by the question, in this edition anything can 'statistically' kill anything...may just take a while.

 NoiseMarine with Tinnitus wrote:
Going strictly by the question, in this edition anything can 'statistically' kill anything...may just take a while.

It's pretty clear from context that he was aiming for over 50% chance.

 Stux wrote:

 NoiseMarine with Tinnitus wrote:
Going strictly by the question, in this edition anything can 'statistically' kill anything...may just take a while.

It's pretty clear from context that he was aiming for over 50% chance.

Then possibly change the title to 'Can a warboss take down Bobby G in a single round of combat'? But that is getting a bit pedantic.

 NoiseMarine with Tinnitus wrote:

 Stux wrote:

 NoiseMarine with Tinnitus wrote:
Going strictly by the question, in this edition anything can 'statistically' kill anything...may just take a while.

It's pretty clear from context that he was aiming for over 50% chance.

Then possibly change the title to 'Can a warboss take down Bobby G in a single round of combat'? But that is getting a bit pedantic.

Actually that would still not be same thing. 10 grots could theoretically kill Bobby G in single round of combat. If you want to argue wordings "is warboss favourite over Bobby G" would be better likely.

For which I say depends on do you have CP to attack 2nd time(and do you have other charges so you can activate before Bobby G attacks). One set of swings is way too swingy and if he has just 1 CP for the 3++ reroll very unlikely. Even if average is enough wounds it's due to sometimes you overkilling it and sometimes failing to kill. More of failing.

I think the title is pretty clear.

Also, TO ANYDICE!

So he has 6 attacks. I'll assume only one six is rolled, and give him 7 attacks total.
Hitting on 2s, rerolling.
Wounding on 2s, rerolling.
3+ save.
4 damage per failed save.

Wounds Dealt.....Percentage
0.........................100%
4.........................92.93%
8.........................70.16
9+.......................38.73%

And note, this does NOT factor in a CP spent rerolling a 3+ invuln. So, on average... No. The warboss fails.

Anydice program found here.

 JNAProductions wrote:
I think the title is pretty clear.

Also, TO ANYDICE!

So he has 6 attacks. I'll assume only one six is rolled, and give him 7 attacks total.
Hitting on 2s, rerolling.
Wounding on 2s, rerolling.
3+ save.
4 damage per failed save.

Wounds Dealt.....Percentage
0.........................100%
4.........................92.93%
8.........................70.16
9+.......................38.73%

And note, this does NOT factor in a CP spent rerolling a 3+ invuln. So, on average... No. The warboss fails.

Anydice program found here.

Don't forget the attack Squig!