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So we've seen a number of threads become somewhat embroiled in a discussion around Marines of late and it seems to be annoying some (the marine) posters. To be fair and full disclosure, I have been guilty of getting sidetracked along this discussion myself in a few threads.

I've created this thread so we can all share our thoughts on nu-Marines, our stats from various sources, potentially what could fix them, our experiences etc. Marine players are welcome, feel free to defend your boys, offer counter-points or your own takes too.

Right so I'll go first, at the last stats centre I listened to (not this week, the one before) they broke down the post Supplement Marine meta (last 6 or 8 weeks or something). The results of that discussion and the stats are pretty telling, in my opinion (they tell me that Marines are busted);

Percentage of Marine players at tournaments; 25% of total tournament players.
Percentage of all 4-0 players that are Marines at tournaments; 45% of total 4-0 players. Almost half of the 4-0 lists at any given tournament are a flavour of Marine.
Percentage of Iron Hands players at tournaments; 10% (roughly).
Percentage of all 4-0 players that are Iron Hands; 27% of total 4-0 players. Almost a third of the 4-0 lists at any given tournament are Iron Hands. They're 10% of the player base. Damn.

These stats are from 40k stats centre and can be found on 40k stats.com. They have removed mirror matches for accuracy.

In other news; some factions have suffered greatly in terms of their competitive viability since Marines rose to prominence. Those factions are (in no particular order);
GSC
Nids
Orks
Knights
Custodes
DG

Some factions have suffered in terms of their competitive viability since Marines appeared, but they haven't suffered quite as much as the factions above. Those factions are (in no particular order);
Chaos soup (aka Lord Disco lists)
CWE
DE
TS
IG

Some factions have actually benefited from the nu-Marine Meta! Those factions are;
Chaos Daemons (the best win rate vs nu-Marines by far)
Tau
DA (have gone from a 32% win rate to 41% hot damn!)
BA
SW
Sororitas

I think that's enough to start a discussion. Have at it!

NuMarines are broken.

30" guns on standard infantry break the meta for mid-range shooting. That extra 6" allows them to kite MEQ and TEQ. Tactical Doctrine amplifies this effect, you can kind of get an extra turn of shooting with them.

Repulsors have too many guns for the points. Being able to put out 36+ shots on a tank at that cost is crazy. Triple Repulsor lists create a kill zone in the middle of the board that's very hard to beat with any melee army.

Don't get me started on the wounds or the HQs....

What we have to keep in mind and what is very hard to account for: Marines are simply more popular than other factions.

I'm not commenting on the tournament viability for now, but I want people to consider that if any kind of Codex compliant Chapter is getting strong rules, it is simply that more likely to see people taking Marines to tournaments than other armies.

If GSC would get totally broken rules over night, you would not nearly see as much players at any given tournament than with Marines. According to a poll on Dakka some time ago 35% of the playerbase owns Marines.

People are just ready to hit tournaments with it. GSC on the other hand is a niche army, popularity wise. Even if people would want to attend tournaments with them, they would take a much longer time first to finish a tournament collection.

Apart from meta chasers, regular collectors might not be interested in the army even if they like to go to a tourney every now and then.

The tournament stats tell a pretty compelling story, but I think it goes even further than that. One of the issues for more casual play is that fluffy, basic Marine units are very effective units now, so the power gap between a 'fluffy' Marine list and a cutthroat tournament list is smaller than it is with other armies.

This means that even if the meta is balanced such that Marines get a perfectly equal 50% winrate in tournaments, they will still overperform in casual play.

It's a shame, because on the face of it I kind of like the design approach they took to Marines- they made the basic units worth taking, and incentivized pure armies. I'd like to see other factions get the same treatment, and I was hoping Psychic Awakening would be the mechanism to do that, but it doesn't appear so far that that's the case.

I'm fine with Marines being super-powerful elites. They just need to be costed appropriately. A mild points increase on most units, with a bigger hike on some of the worse offenders, would be enough.

Normally NuMarines are a codeword for Primaris marines. Assuming that, Primaris marines aren't broken.They cost a ton of points and require multiple buffs to work correctly. They suffer from the marine statline problem, with players paying points to survive in melee but not to excel in it and still paying points for an only ok shooting model.

Strangely, oldMarines are doing better since they pay less points for the marine statline, but the single wound problem makes lists using them as risky as hell.

The new codex is a power boost, but the presence of sapce marines in tournament lists is for the eternal reason of 40k. Every player owns a marine list and they all bring them out when there are new marine goodies to try out.

I am less bothered by the rules to be honest that the constant, relentless Marine releases partly due to be spread across how many sub sub factions.....

In addition if there was any sign of them bothering to release a single supplement for a Sept, Craftworld, Dynasty, Hive Fleet, Order, Kabal, Kult, Coven, Masque..... it might be little more palatable.

Same if the new Campign books are obviously not just a series of appendix to the Marine Codex/s

 catbarf wrote:
The tournament stats tell a pretty compelling story, but I think it goes even further than that. One of the issues for more casual play is that fluffy, basic Marine units are very effective units now, so the power gap between a 'fluffy' Marine list and a cutthroat tournament list is smaller than it is with other armies.

This means that even if the meta is balanced such that Marines get a perfectly equal 50% winrate in tournaments, they will still overperform in casual play.

It's a shame, because on the face of it I kind of like the design approach they took to Marines- they made the basic units worth taking, and incentivized pure armies. I'd like to see other factions get the same treatment, and I was hoping Psychic Awakening would be the mechanism to do that, but it doesn't appear so far that that's the case.

I'm fine with Marines being super-powerful elites. They just need to be costed appropriately. A mild points increase on most units, with a bigger hike on some of the worse offenders, would be enough.

The repulsor and executioner could definitely use a point bump. The centurions and aggressors as well. I think the troops are good for their points right now, they are decent units but not broken. The eliminators are defiantly 20+ points undercosted.

 Mr Morden wrote:
I am less bothered by the rules to be honest that the constant, relentless Marine releases partly due to be spread across how many sub sub factions.....

In addition if there was any sign of them bothering to release a single supplement for a Sept, Craftworld, Dynasty, Hive Fleet, Order, Kabal, Kult, Coven, Masque..... it might be little more palatable.

Same if the new Campign books are obviously not just a series of appendix to the Marine Codex/s

They definitely irritated a large chunk of the players by stringing the 2.0 SM release over 3+ months, even many marine players hate it.

a_typical_hero wrote:
What we have to keep in mind and what is very hard to account for: Marines are simply more popular than other factions.

I'm not commenting on the tournament viability for now, but I want people to consider that if any kind of Codex compliant Chapter is getting strong rules, it is simply that more likely to see people taking Marines to tournaments than other armies.

Before the new codex and supplements Marines represented 4-5% of the tournament lists.

I'll agree that marines are more popular than any other faction, but let's not pretend that every player has a hidden stash of Marines somewhere, it simply isn't the case. And even if they have a stash of Marines somewhere, the fact is that in normal situations they'd have to make a working list out of what they have (this list might not be optimal). The new supplements have provided Marine players with a wealth of many different, top tier competitive lists to create with almost any unit having a useful function.

I predict this thread will be shut down by page 5-6

 ChargerIIC wrote:
Normally NuMarines are a codeword for Primaris marines. Assuming that, Primaris marines aren't broken.They cost a ton of points and require multiple buffs to work correctly. They suffer from the marine statline problem, with players paying points to survive in melee but not to excel in it and still paying points for an only ok shooting model.

Strangely, oldMarines are doing better since they pay less points for the marine statline, but the single wound problem makes lists using them as risky as hell.

The new codex is a power boost, but the presence of sapce marines in tournament lists is for the eternal reason of 40k. Every player owns a marine list and they all bring them out when there are new marine goodies to try out.

Sorry, nuMarines in this instance refers to Nu-Codex Marines. Apologies if that was unclear.

Not every 40k player owns a Marine list and not every Marine list should be performing on the top tables all the time.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Argive wrote:
I predict this thread will be shut down by page 5-6

Why man? I've made this thread to try and stop the derailing of other threads so people have a place to discuss their Marine thoughts. It's kinda the hot topic at the moment and there was no centralised place to discuss it. Now there is. If people purposefully break rules in an attempt to get the thread locked, hopefully they are removed from the discussion.

 An Actual Englishman wrote:

a_typical_hero wrote:
What we have to keep in mind and what is very hard to account for: Marines are simply more popular than other factions.

I'm not commenting on the tournament viability for now, but I want people to consider that if any kind of Codex compliant Chapter is getting strong rules, it is simply that more likely to see people taking Marines to tournaments than other armies.

Before the new codex and supplements Marines represented 4-5% of the tournament lists.

I'll agree that marines are more popular than any other faction, but let's not pretend that every player has a hidden stash of Marines somewhere, it simply isn't the case. And even if they have a stash of Marines somewhere, the fact is that in normal situations they'd have to make a working list out of what they have (this list might not be optimal). The new supplements have provided Marine players with a wealth of many different, top tier competitive lists to create with almost any unit having a useful function.

You are right but we know about 35% of players have a marine army but their 1.0 codex was aging horribly and they were not competitive at all. With a more competitive codex 2.0 came out more people started bringing their marines to tournaments. I have had a marine army for quite a while but I brought my Tau to tournaments because they were just so much better than my space marines.

It's pretty clear that the issue is iron hands from the data you have presented. That was pretty clear right from the start. I'd also wager that the remainder of space marine lists are majority CF with some RG/WS soups comprising the rest.

On Ironhands. Apart from just obviously having too many free rules on their models. They also cover the biggeest weakness of marines as well as make most of the options in the codex better than any other chapter can.

Weakness #1 - being forced to clump your forces together for buffs. Ironhands don't have to do this.

Weakness #2 - Being forced to stay still to deal maximum damage - Plus on units forced to move the penalty for moving is ignored making it essentially a +1 BS Reroll 1's upgrade for free before you even apply your army tactics and doctrines??? Utter insanity.

IF for some reason also get a 2 CP stratagem for free on every unit every turn...exploding 6's on units hitting on 5's is bad enough - but when they hit on 3's rerolling everything it is a massive buff (FOR FREE) Ignore cover is alread a suitable chapter tactic compared to the flied of tactics out there. (Flayed skull for example was one of the strongest mono armies you could make in the game as a whole. They also get reroll 1's but it's conditional and only affects a few units that can fly or ride in transports...The IF rule affects all units and heavy weapons too...Don't even get me started on +1 damage to vehicals blanket buff. LOL whoever came up with this rule needs to lose their job straight up. +1 Damage for free? HAHAHAHAHAHAAHA.

Saw a GT in England where the top 10 armies placed were marines and the top 5 where IF...The rest were Ironhands and Whitescar soup...MOTHER OF GOD.

Yep - no question these aremies are OP.

My suggested fix would be
Change dev doctrine to ignore move penalties for moving and shooting instead of AP -1.
Nerf IF super doctrine to only affect str 7+ weapons
Nerf IF/CF chapter tactics. IF only ignore cover and CF only have bolter drill.
Give Centurions vehicle keyword (with special rules to allow them to ride in certain transports)
Nerf DS/Infiltrate stratagems to affect only 1 unit.

If these changes were implements and marines still were dominating...(I don't think they would be) Then points increases would be needed without question.

 Mr Morden wrote:
I am less bothered by the rules to be honest that the constant, relentless Marine releases partly due to be spread across how many sub sub factions.....

In addition if there was any sign of them bothering to release a single supplement for a Sept, Craftworld, Dynasty, Hive Fleet, Order, Kabal, Kult, Coven, Masque..... it might be little more palatable.

Same if the new Campign books are obviously not just a series of appendix to the Marine Codex/s

I agree with this 100%. I'm more bothered that Marines just seem to be getting everything at the moment. The newest models. The newest rules. The best rules. The most in depth rules. The most varied rules. The most fun rules.

It would be nice for GW to show love elsewhere. I am certain it would lead to greater profits too, over time.

 An Actual Englishman wrote:

a_typical_hero wrote:
What we have to keep in mind and what is very hard to account for: Marines are simply more popular than other factions.

I'm not commenting on the tournament viability for now, but I want people to consider that if any kind of Codex compliant Chapter is getting strong rules, it is simply that more likely to see people taking Marines to tournaments than other armies.

Before the new codex and supplements Marines represented 4-5% of the tournament lists.

I'll agree that marines are more popular than any other faction, but let's not pretend that every player has a hidden stash of Marines somewhere, it simply isn't the case. And even if they have a stash of Marines somewhere, the fact is that in normal situations they'd have to make a working list out of what they have (this list might not be optimal). The new supplements have provided Marine players with a wealth of many different, top tier competitive lists to create with almost any unit having a useful function.

Realistcally. Without knowing for sure. I wouldn't be surpised if over 50% of players have a marine army of at least 1000 points. 40% or more probably have complete armies. Probably up to a quarter of players marines are their largest army. OFC this is all just made up out of thin air but that is about what I believe to be true and it matches my group of players.

 Xenomancers wrote:

 An Actual Englishman wrote:

a_typical_hero wrote:
What we have to keep in mind and what is very hard to account for: Marines are simply more popular than other factions.

I'm not commenting on the tournament viability for now, but I want people to consider that if any kind of Codex compliant Chapter is getting strong rules, it is simply that more likely to see people taking Marines to tournaments than other armies.

Before the new codex and supplements Marines represented 4-5% of the tournament lists.

I'll agree that marines are more popular than any other faction, but let's not pretend that every player has a hidden stash of Marines somewhere, it simply isn't the case. And even if they have a stash of Marines somewhere, the fact is that in normal situations they'd have to make a working list out of what they have (this list might not be optimal). The new supplements have provided Marine players with a wealth of many different, top tier competitive lists to create with almost any unit having a useful function.

Realistcally. Without knowing for sure. I wouldn't be surpised if over 50% of players have a marine army of at least 1000 points. 40% or more probably have complete armies. Probably up to a quarter of players marines are their largest army. OFC this is all just made up out of thin air but that is about what I believe to be true and it matches my group of players.

This wouldn't surprise me either. Marines have been in virtually every starter set for at least two decades (or maybe all of them?) - if you're interested in 40k, it's very easy to pick up a small collection of Marine models basically by accident. It's a lot easier to flesh out a list when you're not starting from scratch.

 Xenomancers wrote:
It's pretty clear that the issue is iron hands from the data you have presented. That was pretty clear right from the start. I'd also wager that the remainder of space marine lists are majority CF with some RG/WS soups comprising the rest.

Sorry Xeno I haven't bothered presenting the rest of the data, I thought it would come out from the discussion anyway.

Every Codex Marine subfaction is over-performing by quite a margin. Every single one. In order of popularity it goes; IH, UM, RG, IF, WS, Sallies.

I would argue that every subfaction of Codex Astartes is too powerful, including Ultramarines, as they are all over-performing (though some perform better than others, for sure).

 Xenomancers wrote:
It's pretty clear that the issue is iron hands from the data you have presented.

I don't have the data on-hand, but the recent tournament win percentages for the other supplements and the vanilla codex are high as well, and jump further when you exclude Marine-vs-Marine matchups.

Iron Hands are just the worst offenders.

 Xenomancers wrote:


My suggested fix would be
Change dev doctrine to ignore move penalties for moving and shooting instead of AP -1.
Nerf IF super doctrine to only affect str 7+ weapons
Nerf IF/CF chapter tactics. IF only ignore cover and CF only have bolter drill.
Give Centurions vehicle keyword (with special rules to allow them to ride in certain transports)
Nerf DS/Infiltrate stratagems to affect only 1 unit.

I agree with this for the most part. Would have to give the IH a new super doctrine, not sure what though. Why make centurions vehicles? Would make hem basically immune to poison.

 An Actual Englishman wrote:

 ChargerIIC wrote:
Normally NuMarines are a codeword for Primaris marines. Assuming that, Primaris marines aren't broken.They cost a ton of points and require multiple buffs to work correctly. They suffer from the marine statline problem, with players paying points to survive in melee but not to excel in it and still paying points for an only ok shooting model.

Strangely, oldMarines are doing better since they pay less points for the marine statline, but the single wound problem makes lists using them as risky as hell.

The new codex is a power boost, but the presence of sapce marines in tournament lists is for the eternal reason of 40k. Every player owns a marine list and they all bring them out when there are new marine goodies to try out.

Sorry, nuMarines in this instance refers to Nu-Codex Marines. Apologies if that was unclear.

Not every 40k player owns a Marine list and not every Marine list should be performing on the top tables all the time.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Argive wrote:
I predict this thread will be shut down by page 5-6

Why man? I've made this thread to try and stop the derailing of other threads so people have a place to discuss their Marine thoughts. It's kinda the hot topic at the moment and there was no centralised place to discuss it. Now there is. If people purposefully break rules in an attempt to get the thread locked, hopefully they are removed from the discussion.

Ohh most certainly, I don't disagree. And I hope you are right but I don't thik it will stop other threads from being derailed. Peeps will be peeps aaaaaight.
Im just being realistically conservative given the observations as these hot topics always devolve into name calling and people just spewing bile at each other. I hope I'm wrong of course.

I just don't think there's anything that can be said/added.
SM + Supplements is obviously broken OP ruleset because of layers and layers of free buffs...Well you don't need a genius to math hammer that one out. Its pretty obvious and all SM players eventually grudgingly agree "well yes I admit IH/IF stuff is pretty OP".
Because it is and its not stopping... The latest buffs in BT supplement is yet another layer of buffs for master chaplains tech marines etc.. What could go wrong right ?

This turns the discussion into why its ok to be broken.. And that leads to name calling etc.


My suggestion would be to flat out remove doctrines or make them 3" aura.
But that ship has sailed

 An Actual Englishman wrote:
I'll agree that marines are more popular than any other faction, but let's not pretend that every player has a hidden stash of Marines somewhere, it simply isn't the case. And even if they have a stash of Marines somewhere, the fact is that in normal situations they'd have to make a working list out of what they have (this list might not be optimal). The new supplements have provided Marine players with a wealth of many different, top tier competitive lists to create with almost any unit having a useful function.

Not everybody, but 35% of the playerbase is enough to skew attendance numbers by alot.

Let's assume we host a tournament and got 1000 Warhammer 40k players in our area.

Out of 1000 we have 35% Marines of some flavour, which means 350 Marine players and 650 Others. I just make a number up and say every tenth player is interested in going to tournaments.

This means in our tournament there will be 35 Marine armies and 65 armies that are distributed over 21 factions, for an average of 3 players per other faction. This will of course be different in reality, as not every army has the same popularity or tournament viability.
Reality is as well that there are not 35 Iron Hands, but ~5 players of each sub-faction. That would not be so bad compared to the 3 of other per faction, but we see Marines as one big group, even if their lists play very different from each other.

Marines have been around for long enough that everybody with enough interest could have made a 2000pts army. Thanks to the diverse playstyles of each sub-faction, people can pick the one that fits their collection the best.

I would follow a more moderate approach.

I would start with making all super doctrine bonuses an alternative to the regular AP bonus. Turn by turn you can choose which one to apply for the whole army,

a_typical_hero wrote:

 An Actual Englishman wrote:
I'll agree that marines are more popular than any other faction, but let's not pretend that every player has a hidden stash of Marines somewhere, it simply isn't the case. And even if they have a stash of Marines somewhere, the fact is that in normal situations they'd have to make a working list out of what they have (this list might not be optimal). The new supplements have provided Marine players with a wealth of many different, top tier competitive lists to create with almost any unit having a useful function.

Not everybody, but 35% of the playerbase is enough to skew attendance numbers by alot.

Let's assume we host a tournament and got 1000 Warhammer 40k players in our area.

Out of 1000 we have 35% Marines of some flavour, which means 350 Marine players and 650 Others. I just make a number up and say every tenth player is interested in going to tournaments.

This means in our tournament there will be 35 Marine armies and 65 armies that are distributed over 21 factions, for an average of 3 players per other faction. This will of course be different in reality, as not every army has the same popularity or tournament viability.
Reality is as well that there are not 35 Iron Hands, but ~5 players of each sub-faction. That would not be so bad compared to the 3 of other per faction, but we see Marines as one big group, even if their lists play very different from each other.

Marines have been around for long enough that everybody with enough interest could have made a 2000pts army. Thanks to the diverse playstyles of each sub-faction, people can pick the one that fits their collection the best.

Let's not assume a dakka poll is some conclusive evidence on Marine numbers either. The fact is we simply don't know how many people own Marines and how many of those people own enough models to make a competitive list.

For example - I have been in the hobby since 2nd edition. I don't own a marine army. The only Marine models I own become decorations for my bases.

Either way I'm not sure I understand your point? Marines are currently 25% of the playerbase (at tournaments) and a way higher proportion of the top tables. That shows that they are OP IMO.

 An Actual Englishman wrote:

 Xenomancers wrote:
It's pretty clear that the issue is iron hands from the data you have presented. That was pretty clear right from the start. I'd also wager that the remainder of space marine lists are majority CF with some RG/WS soups comprising the rest.

Sorry Xeno I haven't bothered presenting the rest of the data, I thought it would come out from the discussion anyway.

Every Codex Marine subfaction is over-performing by quite a margin. Every single one. In order of popularity it goes; IH, UM, RG, IF, WS, Sallies.

I would argue that every subfaction of Codex Astartes is too powerful, including Ultramarines, as they are all over-performing (though some perform better than others, for sure).

Show me the data. I can't argue with data. Show me some data where Ultramarines/Sallies are dominating entire tournaments. It is also possible that more than 1 facet of marines doing well right now is overpowering rules. For example the change to reroll all hit instead of just failed hits makes -1 to hit a lot worse as a defensive stat. You can't argue that this wasn't a dominating stat before the CM change in nearly the same way as marines are dominating now (marines is admitably worse though). A good portion of people probably had to learn that the hard way. Also - the fact that some armies that aren't marines are getting an increase in win rate from the result of the marine meta is big too. Tau for example been slaughtering my marines all edition and nothing has changed and tau were terribly bad at killing -1 to hit spam. If tau was 10% of the armies at a tornament do you really think marines would still be dominating in this fashion? That is still doubtful to me but no way of really knowing.

Lets just compare what Ironahds get for free over ultramarines.
Turn 1 Ignore move pentalties for heavies/ Reroll 1's out of aura for free/ 6+ FNP/ half degrading profiles/ overwatch on 5's. Like....Seriously - they get all that for free. Without even going into the fact that dev doctrine does more damage than tactical ever could no mater how you look at it.
Fall back and shoot at -1 and +1 LD? Get outta here man...I'd take pretty much any non leadship based trait than this utter garbage.

https://www.40kstats.com/subfaction-results

For October and November so far;

Imperial Fists - 59.35% win rate
Iron Hands - 68.14% win rate
Raven Guard - 55.65% win rate
Salamanders - 49.02% win rate
Ultramarines - 50.78% win rate
White Scars - 57.45% win rate

All of those are pretty damn high, bar Ultramarines and Salamanders (which didn't have their supplement for most of the data set).

To be fair, win rates alone aren't enough to justify calling something overpowered. It's the play rate that pairs with it that gives us enough evidence for most of the Space Marine supplements being over the top. Salamanders have a fairly low pick rate, and Ultramarines have an average win rate (50% is about as average at it gets) and low-ish pick rate, but could be that this win rate gets dragged down a bit by newer players (being the go-to army for beginners can have this effect). Still, Ultras and Salamnders are the least of the problems right now.

 Burnage wrote:
https://www.40kstats.com/subfaction-results

For October and November so far;

Imperial Fists - 59.35% win rate
Iron Hands - 68.14% win rate
Raven Guard - 55.65% win rate
Salamanders - 49.02% win rate
Ultramarines - 50.78% win rate
White Scars - 57.45% win rate

All of those are pretty damn high, bar Ultramarines and Salamanders (which didn't have their supplement for most of the data set).

I'd like to point out that those values get skewed somewhat in that they're also facing other SM players; if you filter out the SM-on-SM fights then all the percentages climb significantly.

Ultramarines have an average win rate because they get clubbed by IH/IF/WS/RG and in turn club everyone else; their ~50% does not reflect parity with the non-SM factions.

 Burnage wrote:
https://www.40kstats.com/subfaction-results

For October and November so far;

Imperial Fists - 59.35% win rate
Iron Hands - 68.14% win rate
Raven Guard - 55.65% win rate
Salamanders - 49.02% win rate
Ultramarines - 50.78% win rate
White Scars - 57.45% win rate

All of those are pretty damn high, bar Ultramarines and Salamanders (which didn't have their supplement for most of the data set).

Another way to look at this: win rates of other factions.

Only Sisters, Eldar, Mechanicus, Orks and Tau have > 50% win rates, the average is ~ 51% compared to 57% overall for Astartes.

If NuMarines were truly OP, I'd expect to see a larger margin. OTOH, from a subfaction perspective, Iron Hands are almost at a 70% win rate, and are the most frequently used sub-faction.

Have to think about what that means. Is it that Iron Hands really are that good, or that the rest of the meta hasn't adapted, or something else entirely?

How did those new marines impact the tournament grey knights lists?

Salamanders didn't have their suppliment and had the lowest win-rate, but Imperial Fist got their suppliment at the same time as Salamanders and they have the second highest win rate.

 techsoldaten wrote:

 Burnage wrote:
https://www.40kstats.com/subfaction-results

For October and November so far;

Imperial Fists - 59.35% win rate
Iron Hands - 68.14% win rate
Raven Guard - 55.65% win rate
Salamanders - 49.02% win rate
Ultramarines - 50.78% win rate
White Scars - 57.45% win rate

All of those are pretty damn high, bar Ultramarines and Salamanders (which didn't have their supplement for most of the data set).

Another way to look at this: win rates of other factions.

Only Sisters, Eldar, Mechanicus, Orks and Tau have > 50% win rates, the average is ~ 51% compared to 57% overall for Astartes.

If NuMarines were truly OP, I'd expect to see a larger margin. OTOH, from a subfaction perspective, Iron Hands are almost at a 70% win rate, and are the most frequently used sub-faction.

Have to think about what that means. Is it that Iron Hands really are that good, or that the rest of the meta hasn't adapted, or something else entirely?

IH are really that good. You're welcome.