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Space marines have historically sold better than any TWO other factions. Anecdotal evidence has suggested that in some cases they sold better than ALL the rest of 40k combined. And yet, they're by and large terrible. ESPECIALLY their fancy new primaris kits.
Such an easy theory to disprove.
If we add in incompetence *and* malice on GW's part, it makes sense - they want to make Marines powerful and easy to use, but they keep tripping over themselves.
I don't want to discount the possibility as I am only speculating, however, the slow units at the point become really slow. Terminators don't get anywhere. Harlequins would walk circles around people just jumping over cover when you get too close.
i get that it feels bad, but thats pretty much how it should play, termis are tough as hell and slow, clowns are squishy but fast and hit hard
Thousand Sons lack accessible powerful flying units ( as an example ). It seems like such a setup would make it harder to balance units especially in a objective based mission set.
Ah, I see. You're trying to deny the Guard players one of the strengths of their faction.
This is nothing but the mewling cry of the bad player. Whatever the strength of a faction (except yours of course)? Nerf it into the ground!
Removed - rule #1
Ignore LoS shooting is consistently problematic when it's not overcosted the same way flyers. The rule as a whole needs to be reined in. -1 to hit when targeting units they can't see would at least be a good start.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2022/03/11 17:44:49
Space marines have historically sold better than any TWO other factions. Anecdotal evidence has suggested that in some cases they sold better than ALL the rest of 40k combined. And yet, they're by and large terrible. ESPECIALLY their fancy new primaris kits.
Such an easy theory to disprove.
If we add in incompetence *and* malice on GW's part, it makes sense - they want to make Marines powerful and easy to use, but they keep tripping over themselves.
I think GW legit thought Primaris were super amazing on the first iteration of rules.
Space marines have historically sold better than any TWO other factions. Anecdotal evidence has suggested that in some cases they sold better than ALL the rest of 40k combined. And yet, they're by and large terrible. ESPECIALLY their fancy new primaris kits.
Such an easy theory to disprove.
If we add in incompetence *and* malice on GW's part, it makes sense - they want to make Marines powerful and easy to use, but they keep tripping over themselves.
I think GW legit thought Primaris were super amazing on the first iteration of rules.
Anything with a BS worse than 2+ (i.e. 84%) - At a BS 3+ (67%) you don't get both D6 at the same rate you get the D3+3 and certainly not at a 71% clip. As near as I can tell, the gist of your claim may be entirely valid. However the gist of your claim is not the proffered premise. 2D6 to hit, chances both are 3+ is just under 45%. Unless you artificially boost the hit rate of the two shots to get "the same hit rate" for 2D6 damage you get for the single D3+3 attack.
I presume you mean a single cognis LC otherwise it goes way in the other direction.
Such a LC can kill a Custodes 15.4% of the time ( 26.7% if a twin ). MM at range is 17.8% and 25.8 in half.
The discussion has sort of moved on - but how did you do this maths?
To very roughly do my own numbers.
1 single Dark Lance (or a single Cognis Las - were such a thing to exist, as its different stats don't make a difference in this scenario as far as I can see), no mods. S8, AP-4, D3+3 damage.
1 MM outside 12". 2 shots S8 AP-4 D6 damage.
Into a squad of Transhumaned basic Custodes. (Before any other rerolls, buffs etc)
Lance is easy.
1*2/3*1/2*1/2=1/6 chance to kill a guy. 5/6 chance to bounce and do nothing. 16.66%
One shot with an MM.
1*2/3*1/2*1/2=also 1/6 chance to get a wound through. You then have a 2/3 chance to get a 3+ damage and so claim a kill. So the odds become 1/9.
So the odds of not getting any kills with 2 shots is - crudely (see below) - 8/9*8/9=79%. So you have around a 21% chance to kill at least one Custodes. (Of which, 1.2%~ is a chance of getting 2).
Technically however the odds are slightly higher than this - because if you got 2 hits through (as unlikely as this is) a 1+2 or 2+2 for damage would get a kill as well. Which I think adds another 1.5% chance to get a kill. So I think the figure would be about 22.5%.
If in 12" the odds of not getting at least one kill with the MM would be 5/6 - so 5/6*5/6=69.4444% So the odds of getting a kill would be 30.5%~ or so. With 2.7% chance of getting 2.
More relevantly on LOS ignoring weapons - I guess you could try to solve it with penalties. But I think the danger there is GW just go "oh its fixed now, we can throw really cheap ignore LOS weapons that are totally fine out and what will be the problem?"
For example the Eldar D-Cannon. 24", Heavy D3 Shots, S12 AP-4 Damage D6+2, Blast. Additional Mortal on 6s to wound. And it ignores LOS.
For 65 points, I think this is the most efficient way to put "high damage shooting" into a CWE list... and so its getting the ignore LOS essentially for free.
I mean a double lance war walker has some additional advantages - better movement (and pre-game positioning), better defenses. But you are paying 85 points - 30% more. A unmodified Fire Prism is 160 - so you'd get 2.5 D-Cannons for the same price? You are getting a fraction of the fire power. (And spending 2 CP to link 2 of them and ignore Invuls has to compare with the impact of having say 5 D-Cannons, and potentially buffing up one unit with the relevant CP).
The argument of cutting these things down at the points level is that yes, they would appear clearly overcosted on planet bowling ball. But I'm not sure that's a problem. If you have a weapon which is as good on planet bowling ball as other options - but dramatically better on "planet City Fight" - then its going to be an autotake. As arguably we have seen - the meta will warp into who can bring more undercosted ignore LOS shooting.
Anything with a BS worse than 2+ (i.e. 84%) - At a BS 3+ (67%) you don't get both D6 at the same rate you get the D3+3 and certainly not at a 71% clip. As near as I can tell, the gist of your claim may be entirely valid. However the gist of your claim is not the proffered premise. 2D6 to hit, chances both are 3+ is just under 45%. Unless you artificially boost the hit rate of the two shots to get "the same hit rate" for 2D6 damage you get for the single D3+3 attack.
Two d6 damage weapons, hitting on a 3+, wounding on a 3+, and saving on a 4+ into a Custodian Guard have a mere 4.94% chance of both hits landing... But have a 34.57% chance of one hit landing. That means that you've got a 27.85% chance of killing a Custodian Guard with those two shots.
A d3+3 damage weapon, hitting on a 3+, wounding on a 3+, and saving on a 4+ into a Custodian Guard has a 22.22% chance of landing its damage, which will instantly kill the Custode.
Clocks for the clockmaker! Cogs for the cog throne!
EviscerationPlague wrote: Oh boy, one of them suggested nerfing Crisis Suits by doing the "what's in the box" loadout. I'm shocked he doesn't work for GW already!
I would die laughing as basically any other faction suffers the same horrendous nerf that orkz did at the hand of this "If its in the box you have to use it" mindset.
Lootas and Burnas: well...there is the option to make a spanner so therefore for every 5 models, 1 must be a mek.
Won't happen though. I don't think any other faction really got hit like we did in this regard, and I don't think anyone else ever will.
EviscerationPlague wrote: Oh boy, one of them suggested nerfing Crisis Suits by doing the "what's in the box" loadout. I'm shocked he doesn't work for GW already!
I would die laughing as basically any other faction suffers the same horrendous nerf that orkz did at the hand of this "If its in the box you have to use it" mindset.
Lootas and Burnas: well...there is the option to make a spanner so therefore for every 5 models, 1 must be a mek.
Won't happen though. I don't think any other faction really got hit like we did in this regard, and I don't think anyone else ever will.
10-man Intercessor Squad? You get two Sergeants... and they're both free!
I presume you mean a single cognis LC otherwise it goes way in the other direction.
Such a LC can kill a Custodes 15.4% of the time ( 26.7% if a twin ). MM at range is 17.8% and 25.8 in half.
The discussion has sort of moved on - but how did you do this maths?
To very roughly do my own numbers.
1 single Dark Lance (or a single Cognis Las - were such a thing to exist, as its different stats don't make a difference in this scenario as far as I can see), no mods. S8, AP-4, D3+3 damage.
1 MM outside 12". 2 shots S8 AP-4 D6 damage.
Into a squad of Transhumaned basic Custodes. (Before any other rerolls, buffs etc)
Lance is easy.
1*2/3*1/2*1/2=1/6 chance to kill a guy. 5/6 chance to bounce and do nothing. 16.66%
One shot with an MM.
1*2/3*1/2*1/2=also 1/6 chance to get a wound through. You then have a 2/3 chance to get a 3+ damage and so claim a kill. So the odds become 1/9.
So the odds of not getting any kills with 2 shots is - crudely (see below) - 8/9*8/9=79%. So you have around a 21% chance to kill at least one Custodes. (Of which, 1.2%~ is a chance of getting 2).
Technically however the odds are slightly higher than this - because if you got 2 hits through (as unlikely as this is) a 1+2 or 2+2 for damage would get a kill as well. Which I think adds another 1.5% chance to get a kill. So I think the figure would be about 22.5%.
If in 12" the odds of not getting at least one kill with the MM would be 5/6 - so 5/6*5/6=69.4444% So the odds of getting a kill would be 30.5%~ or so. With 2.7% chance of getting 2.
More relevantly on LOS ignoring weapons - I guess you could try to solve it with penalties. But I think the danger there is GW just go "oh its fixed now, we can throw really cheap ignore LOS weapons that are totally fine out and what will be the problem?"
For example the Eldar D-Cannon. 24", Heavy D3 Shots, S12 AP-4 Damage D6+2, Blast. Additional Mortal on 6s to wound. And it ignores LOS.
For 65 points, I think this is the most efficient way to put "high damage shooting" into a CWE list... and so its getting the ignore LOS essentially for free.
I mean a double lance war walker has some additional advantages - better movement (and pre-game positioning), better defenses. But you are paying 85 points - 30% more. A unmodified Fire Prism is 160 - so you'd get 2.5 D-Cannons for the same price? You are getting a fraction of the fire power. (And spending 2 CP to link 2 of them and ignore Invuls has to compare with the impact of having say 5 D-Cannons, and potentially buffing up one unit with the relevant CP).
The argument of cutting these things down at the points level is that yes, they would appear clearly overcosted on planet bowling ball. But I'm not sure that's a problem. If you have a weapon which is as good on planet bowling ball as other options - but dramatically better on "planet City Fight" - then its going to be an autotake. As arguably we have seen - the meta will warp into who can bring more undercosted ignore LOS shooting.
Not math so much as simulating the dice rolls over many thousands of attempts, which allows for accounting where you have things like D2 weapons hitting a W3 model.
D-Cannons are certainly another problematic no LOS weapon.
Hmm....how about we split the difference? Increase the relative prices of ignore LOS weapons and make them -1 to hit if they can't actually see what they're shooting at.
The one saving grace for support platforms is they're vehicle, so no breaching. If the terrain has a swiss cheese ruins then too many support platforms will be vulnerable or say too far back to be as useful as other options.
Without posting pictures its hard to say - but I think an effective range of about 30" will allow you to cover the vast majority of the relevant parts of a table. Especially if there's some nice LOS blocking terrain in the center of the board - which is fairly standard.
There also aren't that many units that can just zip 24" across the table.
I think having been possibly prematurely written off, its starting to become clearer there are some gems in the CWE roster. Be interesting to see if that starts to come through tomorrow.
Tyel wrote: Without posting pictures its hard to say - but I think an effective range of about 30" will allow you to cover the vast majority of the relevant parts of a table. Especially if there's some nice LOS blocking terrain in the center of the board - which is fairly standard.
There also aren't that many units that can just zip 24" across the table.
I think having been possibly prematurely written off, its starting to become clearer there are some gems in the CWE roster. Be interesting to see if that starts to come through tomorrow.
i'm not saying theyre bad or that they won't be problematic, just that having them on a platform that moves only 6"m doesnt fly, isnt infantry and doesnt have Core makes them probably less problematic than Airbursts for example.
I think the d-cannon hype won't live and that people will got to the mini nightspinners instead (i know thats what i'll be using first)
Tyel wrote: Without posting pictures its hard to say - but I think an effective range of about 30" will allow you to cover the vast majority of the relevant parts of a table. Especially if there's some nice LOS blocking terrain in the center of the board - which is fairly standard.
There also aren't that many units that can just zip 24" across the table.
I think having been possibly prematurely written off, its starting to become clearer there are some gems in the CWE roster. Be interesting to see if that starts to come through tomorrow.
It all depends where the terrain is. I don't think you can risk these not being in a closed off ruin, which limits their zone of control. I think Tau will struggle heavily against them as they'll get no markerlights on and they likely won't be the closest unit for Montka.
This weekend should be interesting in any case.
Automatically Appended Next Post: And GW spoketh ( soon )
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2022/03/11 17:47:35
VladimirHerzog wrote: I think the d-cannon hype won't live and that people will got to the mini nightspinners instead (i know thats what i'll be using first)
I think the mini nightspinners are good - but you can just take a Big Nightspinner. And for 5/10 points more, you get
2D6 S7 AP-2 2 Damage (plus shurikens/cannon) versus 3D6 S6 AP-2 1 damage. Damage 2 isn't what it was - but its still relevant. I therefore think these are reasonably on par.
In my "Eldar Goodstuff" I can see 3*3 D-Cannons and 2 Night Spinners. That might be overkill on heavy guns as against more general clearance - and swapping one D-cannon unit to Shadowweavers might make some sense. But then this is a meta defined by Custodes and Tau. Then you probably want 3*10 Dire Avengers - which I might be too bullish on, but 33 S4 AP-2 Shuriken shots just seems great for just 120 points (and you can maybe make one obsec or whatever with Exarch powers). Then you want some fast units. I'm not sure whether that's basic Shuriken Jetbikes or Warp Spiders - it might be a mix of both.
Finally say 400-500ish points of some punchy stuff - probably Scorpions and Shining Spears. Banshees may actually be the best for their points - but I'm not convinced they can survive without transportation which I think is too expensive (although YMMV on that).
I sort of wonder if the Avatar has been written off too quickly. He feels a bit slow - and an obvious fire magnet. But equally, I'm not sure if people can just ignore him - and if they are focusing him down it means all the above is free to keep doing a lot of damage. Admittedly its probably reasonably easy to go and calculate what a buffed up Crisis squad or Custodes Bikers would do to him. But I fear it would make me sad.
Gotta be honest, i'm loving the complains about D3+3 and D3+2 etc weapons. I was promised when this edition came out with Multi-melta's doing D6+2 and D6+4 that everyone's weapons would follow suit. What did we get for the Ork equivalent? D3 rokkitz...but they became heavy instead of assault....on a weapon system with 24' range and the #1 unit that uses the weapon doesn't ignore the -1 to hit, nor is there any realistic mechanic to mitigate it
kirotheavenger wrote: GW appears hellbent that Ork infantry is not allowed to be shooty. The only Ork units that may be shooty are vehicles.
Shoota Boyz: Completely unusable
Tankbustas: Borderline unusable
Burna Boyz: Not competitive, fine (ish) for friendly games
Flash Gitz: Borderline unusable
Lootas: Literally the worst 9th edition Auto-cannon infantry unit in the game. (even after their "buff")
Big Mek With SAG: Borderline unusable
Somewhere along the line someone decided that nailing Orks to BS5+ would be hilarious, independent of whether they just badly handicapped a whole army.
AnomanderRake wrote: Somewhere along the line someone decided that nailing Orks to BS5+ would be hilarious, independent of whether they just badly handicapped a whole army.
5+ bs isn’t too bad, it worked in 8th with dakkadakkadakka and strat support, we just need the weapons to match. Ork guns are pretty crazy in the lore, massively powerful, a lot of times better than what other armies field, they just happen to belong to people who don’t care if they hit or not. You can just tack on more strength and shots to ork guns, but gw isn’t a fan.
"Us Blood Axes hav lernt' a lot from da humies. How best ta kill 'em, fer example."
— Korporal Snagbrat of the Dreadblade Kommandos
To a degree there's a form follows function. Shoota Boyz have better assault than regular troops - so probably need to have "bad" shooting potential. But the result is just a bad unit. (The most latest modern equivelent is Storm Guardians - who are not a viable assault unit with 2 S3 AP1 attacks at 8 points.)
But really, the sickness I feel with Orks is in their purity bonus. Speedwaaagh should have somehow counted for all "shooty" infantry. Or there should have been some sort of "Dakkawaaagh" for these units. So... yeah. The Codex is telling you "don't take these".
Shootas should just be assault 4, orks don’t aim, that’s why they’re bs 5+. You could also reduce dice and just have assault s5 or something because unlike bolters ork guns do actually fire massive bullets. I like the 5+ bs, I just don’t like gw not statting/pricing guns equivalently for it.
"Us Blood Axes hav lernt' a lot from da humies. How best ta kill 'em, fer example."
— Korporal Snagbrat of the Dreadblade Kommandos
