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 Tyran wrote:

 Haighus wrote:

Which, in terms of current timelines, means they went from being shocked at populations in the double digit billions to having trillions themselves in something like a decade.

It has been nearly 300 years since the Damocles Crusade.

That may be nothing to the IoM, but to the Tau that's a lot time. If the Tau managed to maintain a 2% annual growth rate in that time, their population would multiply by 380.23. They should be literally a hundred fold bigger because unrestricted exponential growth is ridiculous.

The Damocles Gulf Crusade wasn't when we had lore of the Tau being shocked by Imperial population sizes, it was just prior to the end of the 41st Millennium.

Also, I really question the "unrestricted". The Tau are very well organised, but they have colossal demands on their resources across the empire. Creating a single world of trillions is a major undertaking. I do think this probably is reasonable for the Tau to do in 300 years, but that growth needs to be distributed too.

I suppose I need to go back and read the Agrellan lore... shame, the 7th ed lore is pretty shoddy.

I think I’ve actually got the 7th Ed tau Codex. I’ll join you in that effort if so.

Here we go, from Warzone Kauyon:

and Warzone Mont'ka:


This war happened in .999M41. Essentially, the Tau victories on Agrellan and Prefectia probably cost the Imperium billions of casualties (which would mostly be the civilians in the hives). The way this is presented, probably the low billions. Not unreasonable for major war on hive worlds.

The Tau thought this would take the Imperium generations to recover from, because losses of billions would have the same impact on them. This is in a similar timeframe to the Last Chancers book with a Tau diplomat and Commander surprised that a single hive contained 12 billion people, more than the entire Sept they were currently in. The Last Chancers example is a little earlier, although unclear precisely how much earlier. It is sometime between Ichar IV in .993 and the Last Chancers arriving in the Third War for Armageddon in .999.

If the Tau had a single world approaching or over trillions in population at this stage, let alone the rest of the empire, a few billion in casualties would be very unlikely to set them back by generations. Maybe a single generation at most.

Mont'ka also mentions that the Tau Empire was operating at near enough max capacity resourcing the Third Sphere Expansion, generating an ecumenopolis in the early 42nd millennium must have been an insane extra strain.

 Haighus wrote:
Here we go, from Warzone Kauyon:

and Warzone Mont'ka:


This war happened in .999M41. Essentially, the Tau victories on Agrellan and Prefectia probably cost the Imperium billions of casualties (which would mostly be the civilians in the hives). The way this is presented, probably the low billions. Not unreasonable for major war on hive worlds.

The Tau thought this would take the Imperium generations to recover from, because losses of billions would have the same impact on them. This is in a similar timeframe to the Last Chancers book with a Tau diplomat and Commander surprised that a single hive contained 12 billion people, more than the entire Sept they were currently in. The Last Chancers example is a little earlier, although unclear precisely how much earlier. It is sometime between Ichar IV in .993 and the Last Chancers arriving in the Third War for Armageddon in .999.

If the Tau had a single world approaching or over trillions in population at this stage, let alone the rest of the empire, a few billion in casualties would be very unlikely to set them back by generations. Maybe a single generation at most.

Mont'ka also mentions that the Tau Empire was operating at near enough max capacity resourcing the Third Sphere Expansion, generating an ecumenopolis in the early 42nd millennium must have been an insane extra strain.

The Last Chancers novel you mention was released in 2001, iirc.

I'd definitely not be surprised if GW has retconned things since, like increasing the size of Tau septs the way they also made the Heresy-era Legions 10-15x larger in the 2012 material than they originally were in the 2006 Horus Rising.

 Ashiraya wrote:

 Haighus wrote:
Here we go, from Warzone Kauyon:

and Warzone Mont'ka:


This war happened in .999M41. Essentially, the Tau victories on Agrellan and Prefectia probably cost the Imperium billions of casualties (which would mostly be the civilians in the hives). The way this is presented, probably the low billions. Not unreasonable for major war on hive worlds.

The Tau thought this would take the Imperium generations to recover from, because losses of billions would have the same impact on them. This is in a similar timeframe to the Last Chancers book with a Tau diplomat and Commander surprised that a single hive contained 12 billion people, more than the entire Sept they were currently in. The Last Chancers example is a little earlier, although unclear precisely how much earlier. It is sometime between Ichar IV in .993 and the Last Chancers arriving in the Third War for Armageddon in .999.

If the Tau had a single world approaching or over trillions in population at this stage, let alone the rest of the empire, a few billion in casualties would be very unlikely to set them back by generations. Maybe a single generation at most.

Mont'ka also mentions that the Tau Empire was operating at near enough max capacity resourcing the Third Sphere Expansion, generating an ecumenopolis in the early 42nd millennium must have been an insane extra strain.

The Last Chancers novel you mention was released in 2001, iirc.

I'd definitely not be surprised if GW has retconned things since, like increasing the size of Tau septs the way they also made the Heresy-era Legions 10-15x larger in the 2012 material than they originally were in the 2006 Horus Rising.

That is essentially what has happened, but worth noting the Last Chancers novel in 2001 was broadly consistent with the two warzone books in 2015, 14 years later. It is Codex: Tau Empire (9th edition) in 2022 that then retcons things... sort of. It doesn't directly contradict the earlier lore, but makes for a weirdly big jump in population over a very short period which effectively amounts to a retcon without technically being one. Hence me starting down this whole tangent with me stating I don't like this change to the character of the Tau faction.

"I don't like this change to the character of the Tau faction" could be a thread unto itself, because ho boy, I have some issues with Mr. Kelly's work.

I rather enjoy the Tau loss of innocence.

The early stuff is cool, as it demonstrates kind of unavoidable naivety. Having no idea of just how vast The Imperium is, or how laughably outnumbered they are. Believing they killed Slaanesh when they slew a Cult Leader. The whole “King of Space Marines” thing.

Since then? I feel it’s fallen away in a pretty natural manner. They’ve wised up, because they had to. It’s either understanding just how much trouble you’re in and doing something about it, or just accept you’re screwed and fall into despair.

And it’s their societal dynamics that have allowed this. Rapid adaptation and development. Never falling for the same trick twice. It’s a species and society that’s rapidly maturing because like most of us? There’s no other palatable choice.

That also plays well off the setting’s wider stagnation. Of the major players? It’s really only the Tau, Tyranids and Orks that offer much in the way of surprises.

For Orks, it’s the constant underestimation and the widespread dismissal of them as an uncouth and crude culture.

Tau and Tyranids? They actively encounter, analyse and adapt. Just in very different ways.

I feel the issue for the Imperium isn't the autocracy - but that stagnation. The economy does not meaningfully develop.

If the Imperium was growing like the Tau, they'd just overwhelm everything. You can argue the numbers (which are all over the place) - but the issue is that the Tau Spheres of Expansion are massive civilizational efforts. If they go out and die, that's sort of it for a generation or three until they can organise the resources to go again.

By contrast the Imperium is far larger, but the level of extraction is actually far lower and less efficient. So it isn't really bothered by losing billions in the Damocles Gulf. You have some agri-world that churns out food... and that's it. Its ticked along like that for millennia. If the tithe fails some element of the Imperium might descend to eliminate the current leadership and put in someone new - but that's about it. And you might have some other planet (a hive world or otherwise) that just exists to churn out millions or billions of people each year - destined for the Militarum, the Administratum, maybe even some Space Marine aspirants etc. Sure I guess you can claim "no no, there's there's no metals or minerals there allowing for anything but the most rudimentary of industrial development". But this seems... unlikely. Without a lot of handwaving over magical unobtanium most planets could probably turn their hand to most things.

But they don't have that perspective. The Imperium's leaders don't (and arguably can't) go "oi, you, Ad Mech. You are currently producing 50 Battleships a year. In the next 20 years I want that figure to be 500 - or 5000. Get on it." Oh no its Abaddon and the Vengeful Spirit again - but this time we have more capital ships than he has destroyers..."

Also don't forget some of that static production is wasted. Munitions gathered on ancient tithes sent to a storage world that has to destroy most of what is sent because they literally cannot stock any more on-world. A vast munitions store just sitting there with nothing going out and the incoming maintained no matter the cost.


Or an Agri world that ships vast amounts of food to a region that is no longer heavily populated; so the Governor sells it at a premium to other systems. So instead of a cheap food source for the masses it gets spread out as a more elite food source; denying the Imperium easy growth.


Things like this can hamper the Imperium dramatically. Yes the systems are running, but they are running poorly and even slow communications isn't the issue. It's a fundamental element that the top end isn't sending out the correct orders to the lower end. Meanwhile the lower has no authority to adjust (and attempts to do so get them shot)

The Imperium definitely has plenty of incompetence to spare, but to some extent that stagnation is inevitable. Resources have been brutally extracted for ten thousand years. Entire moons have been drained dry of all valuable metals and minerals, leaving massive husks of worthless rock. This is likely worst closer to the imperial core where the Imperium has existed for longest, territory hasn't changed hands, and civilian industry has reigned instead of fortified frontlines, whereas the choosy stuff is in dangerous places.

They could overcome this if they were competent, but it's an unavoidable factor, especially with travel being so difficult.

(This is to say nothing of foes like Tyranids, Daemons and Necron Destroyer cults who go scorched earth and tend to leave unusable worlds in their wake even if pushed back).