I Challenge You to a Game of Luck! (new challenges)

Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you:

No adverts like this in the forums anymore.
Times and dates in your local timezone.
Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance.
Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely.
Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net.

If you are already a member then feel free to login now.

**Psyker_9er**

Phase 2- How To Play:= A Game of Luck
Three easy steps:

1)Choose
2)Challenge
3)Chart

*********
1)Choose:= Pick one category or pick a few, also include subcategory. If you don't currently like any of the 8 categories feel free to discuss changing one or adding more. I have collected opinions on "luck" from all over this website, please choose what you feel best describes you.

---Main Category:
Lucky Warrior:= Luck favors the bold... Guns blazing, bullets flying, let the dice land where they may...
Lucky Magician:= Luck favors the ritual... Charms, chants, superstitions, gestures, dances, song, or projections of energy shall win the day...
Lucky Divinity:= Luck favors the blessed... Prayer and meditation shall bestow the gift of luck upon thee...
Lucky Logician:= Luck favors no one... With my understanding of probabilities, and through my actions, I might be able to perceivably stack odds in my favor...
Lucky Enforcer:= If Luck favors one thing, destroy the other things... I might not be able to control luck, but I can beat unluckiness into submission...
Lucky Irony:= Luck favors a good joke... What can go wrong, will go wrong, so I prepare for the worst and hope the joke is not on me...
Lucky Chaos:= Luck favors the random... Gravitational pull from the stars or seismic activity from butterflies flapping their wings can change the outcome of a dice roll more than I can.
Luckless:= Luck does not exist... There are only the cold hard apathetic laws of science and math...
Indifferent:= Lucky favors? Ehh... This is a game of chance, mathematical probabilities and luck can't change anything, so just let me roll my dice...

---Subcategory:
Variable Luck:= (v)... We create our own luck and, to a degree, we can control how lucky we get.
Binary Luck:= (+)n... I consider myself to be lucky, but we can not change it. .
Binary Luck:= (-)ff... I do not consider myself lucky or otherwise, we can not change it.

2)Challenge:= Create a gaming scenario for others to roll "against" you. Any kind of scenario, any game, or any type of dice.

3)Chart:= BE HONEST! We all must be completely honest and trust in the honor system. Record what you rolled, post what you recorded. Also include in your post, any information that might be relevant to your chosen category of luck or the challenge you accepted.

Challenge #1: (make two attempts)
a) How many tries does it take for you to roll double six using 3d6?

b) My troops inflicted 2 wounds against your troops; pick a basic troop choice from your favorite 40k codex and roll 2d6 to save. Roll 5+ if you don't normally play 40k. Count how many times it takes for you to pass with both dice.

c) You are trying to pick the lock on a treasure chest, roll one d20, you succeed on a roll of 15 or above. You have one chance to get this right before a trap is sprung, so you can only roll once.

--------------------------------
Examples of Made up Imaginary Responses to the Examples from Above:
a) It took me 27 tries to roll double six with 3d6. I noticed that my blue dice never rolled higher than 3, I think it might have an imperfection so I'm not going to use that one any more. Luckless:= (-)

b) I picked Space Marines as my troop choice, they needed to roll 3+. I rolled 1 and 2 using a lucky rabbit foot... Then I tried again with out the rabbit foot and I rolled double six. Now I don't use that rabbit's foot any more. Lucky Magician:=(v)

c) Picked the lock on my first try, rolled a 17. I was feeling lucky so I didn't hesitate to roll. Lucky Warrior:= (+)
--------------------------------

Challenge #2: (make two attempts)
a) How many times can you roll 3d6, and not roll any doubles? (this one can generate some wins for you; but you must stop as soon as you roll a double, at which time it counts as 1 loss. Remember to count how many times you roll.)

b) Blow up my 40k vehicle, with an armor value of 11. If you don't normally play 40k, roll 5+. (one shot, one kill)

c) We are playing the Monopoly game. You are close to bankrupting by landing on my Park Place or Board Walk, both with hotels... Roll 2d6, you have one chance to see if you can get 7 or greater to make it past "GO" and collect your $200 instead. If you roll doubles equaling higher than 7, it counts as a bonus point for a Win. (since, in the Monopoly game, that would mean you get to go again.)

Phase 2: Purpose is to both have fun and gather more data for the math heads to chew on. This type of study/game play gives people a chance to test their luck against other categories of luck or lucklessness. By creating game like scenarios, we can simulate the desire to succeed when rolling. This also gives an opportunity to freely practice as many lucky rituals, as you may want, with out a delay of game penalty. Most importantly, with this type of blind study it helps prevent cross contamination. When opponents are directly in front of each other, they can potentially project an aura of bad luck towards the opposing player or dice. With this style of competition we may never know who or when some one is rolling against us.

*************

Phase 1: Original Post Nov/08/2010. The purpose of phase 1 was to gather opinions on how to define luck.

Spoiler:

Recently there was a thread titled Math Hammer vs. Chance/Luck. Basically, the poll was asking if you as a player, trust in numbers or trust your own luck.

This launched a huge and heated debate that never quite got finished before the thread was locked. I admit, I too had a part in the thread getting locked, and would like to apologize to anyone who may have been offended. I was going about things all wrong before; now I want to challenge you... If luck is out there, let us go find it!

This is the thread to pick up where things left off... Before, when it was simply a poll to vote between two options, things got off topic. Now, we shall open the doors to a broader spectrum of debate.

[Recap] Since there were only two options for the poll, there were really only two points being made:
1) "Luck" has been deemed a fallacy by logicians and mathematicians the world over for many generations.
2) "Luck" is not logical and therefore should not be studied solely with logic.

I think this Website is large enough to have a good solid mix of the "sane" and "insane" to really give this study the due process it deserves... Every player here, regardless of what game you play, can help.

In the last thread the biggest part of the confusion was caused because luck and the math of probability are seemingly one and the same. To simplify probability: certain things have a certain 'chance' to happen, but it is not a prediction of what 'will' happen. Luck can mean many things to just one person. So our first challenge is to try and define luck in a way that every one can understand. The distinction we need to make first is that probability is merely a tool to tell the odds of what may or may not happen, where as luck is what we will use to try and beat those odds.

We can think of luck as Binary Code, on or off, you have it or you don't. However, that is kind of limiting and I think there is more to luck that leads up to the moment before we cast the dice. So how about this:
Luck: Since all matter is merely energy condensed into a slow vibration; "luck" could be considered as one projecting their own energies to try and sway a particular event or object towards desired results. These energies can also be channeled through lucky charms or through dance and gestures.

Call it magic if you want, or a Jedi Mind Trick. For the first part of this study we will need to gather info. So for now, please post your ideas on how to define "luck", or post even if you agree with the way I have defined "luck" already. Also post ideas, concepts, or things you do already that you consider to be lucky. The more info we gather in this way, the closer we will be to try and find a common idea for us to work with.

**Cryonicleech**

I think luck is merely the fulfillment of human love for symbolism. Humans are symbolistic creatures, everything from religion to science to even our basic words and phrases are symbolic or can be symbolic in one form or another, and acknowledging "luck" is merely our way of saying "So and so beat the odds"

Is it "lucky" if I cause Instant Death on an opposing character, or roll 3 6's? Yes, but in a purely realistic sense, all I did was receive an unlikely result. Because it was beneficial to me, it's called good luck. If I roll 3 1's in a row, as it's detrimental to me, it's called bad luck. Again, it's really just humans putting faith in a symbol for something.

Not that I don't believe in luck, or getting lucky, just that if we look at it, it's really just a symbol for an unlikely result.

**sebster**

Thing is, we can look at a person and say they’ve been more lucky than not. It happens. There are guys who win major poker tournaments despite being poor players, because they got a streak of good cards, and the got their luckiest cards in the biggest hands.

But the thing is that previous ‘luck’ doesn’t mean a person is any more or any less likely to get lucky on the next random event.

**Avatar 720**

I don't see why it has to be called anything, i'm fine with people having their own opinions on it as long as nobody starts having a go at them for using whichever description they think is right.

If I say "bad luck" to someone, i don't expect to be lectured on how luck doesn't exist or anything like that. I call it luck. Live with it. Similarly if I said "poor streak of unlikely dice rolls in quick succession" I don't wish to be told it's called luck.

As long as the people who call it luck respect the opinions of those who don't believe it is luck and vice versa by not forcing their views onto them, I don't see where the problem lies.

**Scott-S6**

There are two factors to someone being "lucky".

Firstly, they get random results with a probability distribution significantly different to the standard.
Secondly, those unusually good results have to occur at significant times.

example
1. You're dealt twice as many aces as expected during a game of poker.
2. Those aces are dealt to you in groups or when there are aces on the table.

**Grakmar**

Is there such a thing as a mystical force determining how random chance effects one person differently than another? No.

But, "luck" doesn't mean that, it means that someone has gotten results that are better/worse than the expected results. If you want to get really technical, I'd say "luck" means you've gotten a result more than 2 standard deviations from the expected results.

**Norbu the Destroyer**

Ive never wanted to sit and do this myself, but Ive always wanted to have some sort of magical familiar sitting next to me during a game and counting all of my dice rolls, telling me what my average roll was and what my opponents average roll was. I would also want to know what were those rolls during "critical" rolls, like a Ld check for Fateweaver or something like that. I am under the firm beleif that the dice will always average out, its just that it seems sometimes that the high rolls come during morale, and low during shooting/melee.

During games sometimes I will think to myself, I am due for a good roll and make a gamble based on that. Sometimes I will throw a unit into melee knowing I will probably die, but I have a 20-40% chance of having one model survive, and Ill take those odds because it could be game changing. The thing about the math is, its helpful for unknown situations, but there are so many rolls in this game, that you cant figureout odds for every turn or it would take too long, you are better off playiong alot and saying.."usually my Great Unclean One survives this amount of fire, or this unit beats that unit in melee". You just put most the game into your experience pouch.

**Grakmar**

Norbu the Destroyer wrote:I am under the firm beleif that the dice will always average out, its just that it seems sometimes that the high rolls come during morale, and low during shooting/melee.

Well, they'll average out, but you'll still be left with a Bell curve. Some games, you will simply end up rolling poorly overall and other games you'll roll really well. With a large enough sample size, the difference between "poor" and "well" isn't much, but it will still be there.

Norbu the Destroyer wrote:During games sometimes I will think to myself, I am due for a good roll and make a gamble based on that.

Don't do that! Past results have no baring on future rolls. Even if you've rolled incredibly poorly, the dice aren't going to make it up to you. Thinking they will roll anything other than "average" will result in poor tactical decisions.

**mikhaila**

I get tired of hearing people blaming their dice.

Bad luck is what you can blame when your dice are crap at critical times, and good luck is what you blame when your opponent rolls good when it's critical to beat you.

It's an attempt to say "I didn't lose, it was the dice." or "My opponent didn't win, it was his dice".

We remember the critical rolls, and ignore the other 99%.

Roll a dice enough times, it always averages out. (Assuming we are talking about fair dice to start with.)

**puma713**

Grakmar wrote:

Norbu the Destroyer wrote:During games sometimes I will think to myself, I am due for a good roll and make a gamble based on that.

Don't do that! Past results have no baring on future rolls. Even if you've rolled incredibly poorly, the dice aren't going to make it up to you. Thinking they will roll anything other than "average" will result in poor tactical decisions.

Good advice here ^

What you're experiencing is called the Gambler's Fallacy:

The Gambler's Fallacy is committed when a person assumes that a departure from what occurs on average or in the long term will be corrected in the short term. The form of the fallacy is as follows:

X has happened.
X departs from what is expected to occur on average or over the long term.
Therefore, X will come to an end soon.
There are two common ways this fallacy is committed. In both cases a person is assuming that some result must be "due" simply because what has previously happened departs from what would be expected on average or over the long term.

The first involves events whose probabilities of occuring are independent of one another. For example, one toss of a fair (two sides, non-loaded) coin does not affect the next toss of the coin. So, each time the coin is tossed there is (ideally) a 50% chance of it landing heads and a 50% chance of it landing tails. Suppose that a person tosses a coin 6 times and gets a head each time. If he concludes that the next toss will be tails because tails "is due", then he will have committed the Gambler's Fallacy. This is because the results of previous tosses have no bearing on the outcome of the 7th toss. It has a 50% chance of being heads and a 50% chance of being tails, just like any other toss.

The second involves cases whose probabilities of occuring are not independent of one another. For example, suppose that a boxer has won 50% of his fights over the past two years. Suppose that after several fights he has won 50% of his matches this year, that he his lost his last six fights and he has six left. If a person believed that he would win his next six fights because he has used up his losses and is "due" for a victory, then he would have committed the Gambler's Fallacy. After all, the person would be ignoring the fact that the results of one match can influence the results of the next one. For example, the boxer might have been injured in one match which would lower his chances of winning his last six fights.

(http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/gamblers-fallacy.html)

As an aside, though, I'm a huge proponent of luck and I am superstitious. And none of these explanations take into account things like Chaos Theory. Isn't it lucky that the wind blew in Singapore and affected the draft that came through your town when you flipped that coin and won the toss?

**andruin**

I recently wrote a series of blog posts about this very idea! (if you're interested: http://andyszymas.blogspot.com/search/label/Signs)

There are two lines of thought of luck.

1. The Clustering Illusion - look it up on wikipedia.This is what a few posters have mentioned above - that we look for luck and notice it in randomness. Basically, our mind is attuned to see clusters of statistically unlikely results and chalk that up to luck. If you want to take a scientific, logical, point of view, there you go.

2. The next idea is that of "affirmations" which is an idea I first read about from Scott Adams (the creator of Dilbert). Affirmations, in Adams' experience, is a process wherein you write down something you want twenty five times. Do this for a few months, and what you want comes true. Adams' reveals several outlandish times he used this method to success - including using it to become a world famous cartoonist. These stories are of course anecdotal and from Adam's own life, so take them with a grain of salt. But, what Adams says, in a literal sense, is that you make your own luck. It has a lot to do with metaphysics and quantum relationships that's a bit above me.

I think it's interesting that there is at least elements of truth in both of these. It's pretty easy to prove the clustering illusion - look back at your 40k games - you remember outlying results. You don't remember when you roll average. But there is truth in the next idea too - there are a lot of studies that show that people who don't know they are being prayed for actually recover from illness faster than people who are not being prayed for.

Anyway, it's interesting.

**mrwhoop**

+1 to 2 above. Try doing a battle report and keep track of your hit/wound/they save rolls. I find that it feels like my opponent makes most of his ork's saves but typing it up after shows that it was about average.

**@postle**

As I stated in the last post... The game, in a perfect world, should be balanced to the point where EVERY unit has it's specific uses. You should be able to take just about anything you want, from any list you want, and if you can bring it to bear effectively you will do well. In that I mean you want to apply your force to tasks that they will statiscally do very well in.. You want to can keep your skirmish units out of combat and keep them harrassing other units, you want to keep your fat units in combat for most of the game, you want to keep firing your heaviest weapons at the most vulnerable, high value targets.

How I define 'Luck', as it pertains to gaming, is a 'gross discrepancy from the average' and where it comes into play most is when you take a unit and do something it's not meant to do and have it succeed, or to have a unit do something it normally excells at only to have it fail horribly. It's not really something you can anticipate or count on, as a wild variation from the average is such a rarity.

When you take a unit of berserkers and charge it into a soft squishy unit, or when you fire a bunch of heavy weapons at lightly armored vehicles or units you dont want luck rearing it's head there... you want the expected to happen. In an ideal game, where you are using your army effectively, luck isn't a tool to use to further victory. It's something you want to avoid at all costs. If you need luck to help you out it's because you're already on the ropes.

**Kilkrazy**

Luck is a way that humans rationalise random occurrences.

In the poker tournament mentioned above, the lucky player who won because he got a good hand, is balanced by the unlucky player in the same game, who got a bad hand.

The randomness of the card distribution ignores the seating of the players, but individually they experience a good or bad result, and rationalise it as luck.

Clustering is a normal thing in random distribution. If you roll a pair of dice 1,000 times, it would be very non-random not to observe some clusters in the results.

**aka_mythos**

I do not believe the two things are mutually exclusive. Each is an attribute of predictability. Statistics is a measure of past predictability and trend impacts towards furture predicatbility. Luck is an attribute of failures of predictability, positive or negative.

"Odds are in your favor" and "you are lucky." Are each false statements. The failure of statistics and luck are in the failure to recognize they are momentary and fleeting. The two assert past events impact on future events impacts when in fact the future events are independent. Statistics wants to assert that if you go through an infinite number of cycles the trend will be a consistent one. Luck wants to assert an explanation on seemingly irrational moment. Both require a continued course of action.

For either to be more than an attribute of a period of time they must continue past the moment you "meaure" them. The ability to just walk away nullifies the possibility of those trends impact future happenings. In action means the trends collapse but for both to be all governing as either group ascribes they would need to stand independent of time and cycles.

**Psyker_9er**

This is all fantastic stuff so far people, keep it up.

I'm at work right now, so it takes me a while to type out an in depth response, spell check it, and submit it... But I just wanted to pop on here real quick and say thanks for all the input so far.

We will need both logic minded people and superstitious type people to really charge through the looking glass and demand some form of results. I think there are plenty of us on this site with plenty of ideas from both categories that this could work.

I think the reason luck has been deemed a fallacy, is because no one had access to such a huge database of info like Dakka Dakka. Until now.

Here is a funny story I'd like to share about "luck":

I own the Lord of the Rings version of the board game Risk. Instead of a map of this Earth and our land masses, it is a map of Middle Earth from the J.R.R Tolkien books; for those of you not familiar with this version of Risk. Also included with the game is your very own copy of "The One Ring"... I have noticed whom ever wears "The One Ring", even though it is not the actual ring of power, rolls considerably better than every one else and usually wins the game. Oddly enough though, the same ring wont work in any other game...

**Viktor von Domm**

luck is bestowed upon mere mortals by the gods...

one can not test or force it.

the lady luck will never come to those who rely upon her.

as the old saying goes:

its a million to one but it might just work...

vik

**Mr Mystery**

I tend not to play to the odds, often trusting to sheer chance, and ergo luck to carry me through a game. Damnedest thing is, my biggest victories come from balls to wall outright risk taking! Always seems to pay off.

Heck, even when some part of the plan fails (ill timed batch of 1's etc) it somehow comes out alright in the end.

I contest there is such a thing as luck, and it's to do with a person's attitude. Take my above statement about my play style. My 'luck' is more likely to be my opponent being caught off guard by an unlikely manouvere, and my familiarity with off the cuff tactics to keep them off guard.

**Flashman**

Part of the reason I'm liking 8th Edition is the increase in the no. of dice rolled eliminating luck (or unlikely results

) and moving the focus to strategy and movement. Most of the time you pretty much know the outcome of a combat before it happens, but where it is evenly matched those slightly odd results can tip things into or out of your favour.

**Psyker_9er**

Mr Mystery wrote:I tend not to play to the odds, often trusting to sheer chance, and ergo luck to carry me through a game. Damnedest thing is, my biggest victories come from balls to wall outright risk taking! Always seems to pay off.

Heck, even when some part of the plan fails (ill timed batch of 1's etc) it somehow comes out alright in the end.

I contest there is such a thing as luck, and it's to do with a person's attitude. Take my above statement about my play style. My 'luck' is more likely to be my opponent being caught off guard by an unlikely manouvere, and my familiarity with off the cuff tactics to keep them off guard.

Is there anything special that you do when you go on your outright risk taking adventures? Like a special way you shake the dice, a special song you play on the radio, a dance or gesture?

Or is there any kind of "feeling" you get in your gut, that lets you know to go ahead with the risk? Maybe even a tickling feeling in your pinky toe or nose or something? Any thing at all, that might be a common thread that binds your victories together. However, this "feeling" lucky might be different person to person, but we wont know that until we start searching. We might find something common within us all.

Scientifically speaking, the act of observation can change that which is being observed. Put a camera in a person's face and their whole attitude changes. Try and measure some one's luck, they might start to disbelieve themselves, start to feel unlucky. The whole scientific method of experimental due process could corrupt the very data we are trying to record. SO DON'T LET IT!

This is part of the reason we need both logical and illogical thoughts. True, "luck" has not logically been found and measured out yet, but we should still move forward. The logical side of luck has been beaten to death, let us pick up the pieces and arrange them into different patterns. Perhaps we can find the missing link.

**sebster**

Again, you can get 'lucky'. In any given game, one player will likely have ended up rolling better dice than the other person. It might have affected the final result, it might not. When you look at the critical roles, there's more chance the difference in the average rolls was greater, which again might have affected the final result, but it might not have.

Basically, it is certainly possible to have been lucky. But that does not predict future luck, it doesn't even predict the next dice roll. While a person may end up ahead or behind on good rolls or bad, it doesn't impact the next dice roll at all.

People can certainly be more successful when they perceive themselves to be 'lucky'. If someone thinks they're being lucky they'll generally be more aggressive, and take more positive actions, which can lead to success and reinforcement of their original belief. If someone thinks they're unlucky they'll be more negative, and start making decisions that make failure and the perception of more 'bad luck' more likely. This may lead people to believe that some people are lucky, when really their belief in their good luck is just leading them to make better decisions, furthering their own perception of their 'luck'.

**Psyker_9er**

Any equation using nothing but constants, will produce a constant product.
2 + 2 will constantly = 4. Nothing we do can change that.

Any equation using nothing but variables, will produce a variable product.
X + Y = unknown Z. We can have all kinds of products with so many options to change.

Simple stuff so far, right?

An equation can have a constant as the actual product of the equation, and the only variables in this situation, are how we get to that product.
X + Y = 10 then X & Y can both equal 5; or X=4 and Y=6 etc... etc... But the end product will always be 10; can not change that.

An equation with variables mixed with constants all on the wrong side of the equals sign, will produce a variable product.
X + 5 - Y = Z. What variables we change here will change the product.

Before we roll the dice, we do not know the end product. What are dice? Little cubes of variable chance right? Well, believe it or not, for this little experimental theoretical equation: Dice are the constant. We are the variables. And the Product is still unknown.

Still with me? I'm going to try and take you on a little trip down the rabbit hole.
(I'm also going to try and do this with out ending up going cross eyed crazy and blowing bubbles with my spit.)

How can dice be a constant!?!
Well, if I want to roll a 6, I will constantly have a 1 in 6 chance. If I want to roll 4+, I will constantly have a 50% chance. If I leave the dice alone, there is a 100% chance it will stay that way until some other variable comes along and changes it.
If we leave the equation simply: Dice1 + Dice2 = Constant odds; we wont get very far with this experiment.

What changes is us, and what we do to the dice... Example: we may roll extra dice, we may shake them in a cup, we may toss them in the air and project a positive flux of energy, or we may flick them like a booger and project negative energy. Just like with math equations, what we do as variables can change the product.

(Us * lucky_variable) + Dice = Unknown Variable Product

The dice part of the equation predicts the end result towards a probable product based on constant odds. (may not always produce the product we want but the odds do not change)
And what we do as the variable, based on random willy nilly sillyness, also changes the product as well. (may not always produce the product we want but it sure is fun to dance a jig)

The point of this experiment is to try and find common "luck", or what ever you want to call it. Once we find it, the gaming industry will never be the same

**sebster**

Psyker_9er wrote:How can dice be a constant!?!
Well, if I want to roll a 6, I will constantly have a 1 in 6 chance. If I want to roll 4+, I will constantly have a 50% chance. If I leave the dice alone, there is a 100% chance it will stay that way until some other variable comes along and changes it.
If we leave the equation simply: Dice1 + Dice2 = Constant odds; we wont get very far with this experiment.

What changes is us, and what we do to the dice... Example: we may roll extra dice, we may shake them in a cup, we may toss them in the air and project a positive flux of energy, or we may flick them like a booger and project negative energy. Just like with math equations, what we do as variables can change the product.

If you want to go down that rabbit hole you have to realise that we people aren’t actually random, either. We’re made of atoms, following chemical reactions and physical reactions the same as the die is. Just like we lack knowledge to know what side a fast spinning die will land, we similarly lack the knowledge to fully predict how a person will act. But that doesn’t make him in anyway unique to the die or somehow inherently different, just a lot more complex.

This takes you to the next step in understanding what probability really is. Thing is, you’re trying to find some element of true randomness, but no such thing needs to exist to have a random event. All that needs to exist is for the final result to be unknown. Consider a random number generator – where the result isn’t known, but is pre-determined. Probability still applies, and if we played a game of 40K with random numbers one of us would still end up luckier than the other, to a greater or lesser extent.

Identifying the true random element in the mechanical process is both unnecessary and impossible – what matters is the range of possible outcomes and likelihood of each.

The point of this experiment is to try and find common "luck", or what ever you want to call it. Once we find it, the gaming industry will never be the same

What you’re effectively talking about is magic. Once you’ve properly identified that then I dare say you’ll end up changing more than gaming. I do wish you good luck, though, because plenty of people tried before you and didn’t really get anywhere.

**Gibious**

To me luck is a mixture of preperation and opportunity. Simple as,

-Gib-

**Mr Mystery**

Psyker_9er wrote:
Mr Mystery wrote:I tend not to play to the odds, often trusting to sheer chance, and ergo luck to carry me through a game. Damnedest thing is, my biggest victories come from balls to wall outright risk taking! Always seems to pay off.

Heck, even when some part of the plan fails (ill timed batch of 1's etc) it somehow comes out alright in the end.

I contest there is such a thing as luck, and it's to do with a person's attitude. Take my above statement about my play style. My 'luck' is more likely to be my opponent being caught off guard by an unlikely manouvere, and my familiarity with off the cuff tactics to keep them off guard.

Is there anything special that you do when you go on your outright risk taking adventures? Like a special way you shake the dice, a special song you play on the radio, a dance or gesture?

Or is there any kind of "feeling" you get in your gut, that lets you know to go ahead with the risk? Maybe even a tickling feeling in your pinky toe or nose or something? Any thing at all, that might be a common thread that binds your victories together. However, this "feeling" lucky might be different person to person, but we wont know that until we start searching. We might find something common within us all.

Scientifically speaking, the act of observation can change that which is being observed. Put a camera in a person's face and their whole attitude changes. Try and measure some one's luck, they might start to disbelieve themselves, start to feel unlucky. The whole scientific method of experimental due process could corrupt the very data we are trying to record. SO DON'T LET IT!

This is part of the reason we need both logical and illogical thoughts. True, "luck" has not logically been found and measured out yet, but we should still move forward. The logical side of luck has been beaten to death, let us pick up the pieces and arrange them into different patterns. Perhaps we can find the missing link.

Nope. No juju or ritual for me. Just a little 'ha HA!' type charging. You know you've done it right by the look of horror on your opponents face as you hit combat a turn earlier than he anticipated. Even better when opting to flee just makes things worse!

**Viktor von Domm**

for a true warrior there is only one way, straight forward! charge! and if you get sloughtered then lucks directly chained to fate.
you either win big or loose big. nothing in between. its the same with beeing pregnant, there is einter pregnancy or not. i live in a world of black and white , no greys here...

**Jburch**

I think everyone is forgetting good ol Tzeench in this discussion. There is no luck, we are all caught up in his grand plan. Blowing your opponent off the table, might force him to turn to the chaos gods, who will then use him as a suicide bomber to blow up a bus full of children. The parents of one of the kids will then be filled with rage, which in turn will spawn a couple more khorn demons in the warp. These demons will attack a research facility working on a highly unstable time machine. The battle will trigger the machine, and one helpless demon will be sent to the year 2011, and wind up on stage with Miley Cyrus as she is performing. It will then go on to rip her to shreds, saving all of us.

Its useless to try and make sense of it all

**Aretak**

Cryonicleech wrote:I think luck is merely the fulfillment of human love for symbolism. Humans are symbolistic creatures, everything from religion to science to even our basic words and phrases are symbolic or can be symbolic in one form or another, and acknowledging "luck" is merely our way of saying "So and so beat the odds"

Like Button

**Psyker_9er**

sebster wrote:What you’re effectively talking about is magic. Once you’ve properly identified that then I dare say you’ll end up changing more than gaming. I do wish you good luck, though, because plenty of people tried before you and didn’t really get anywhere.

Luck, Magic, Jedi Mind Tricks, Juju, Mojo, Voodoo, Energy, Warp Powers... That is what phase 1 of this project is about, trying to locate and put a name to this force that has been elusive for far too long. If we want to have Psyker powers and fight against Warp Beasts in the year 40,000 we had better start figuring this stuff out now.

sebster wrote:
If you want to go down that rabbit hole you have to realize that we people aren’t actually random, either. We’re made of atoms, following chemical reactions and physical reactions the same as the die is. Just like we lack knowledge to know what side a fast spinning die will land, we similarly lack the knowledge to fully predict how a person will act. But that doesn’t make him in anyway unique to the die or somehow inherently different, just a lot more complex.

Right right.... The random elements are more or less what we are trying to remove in a sense. If we discover this common energy/force/luck/magic and randomness will be almost entirely out of the picture. We wouldn't have to predict what the dice will roll exactly, we would simply be able change the energies surrounding those dice to better fit our needs. (With out the use of loaded cheating dice)

And if we do find this energy, it would not be cheating to make use of it. Once we spread the word then the game would be more like a battle of the mind and not a game of odds.

But for now, we are still trying to gather info.

Any one have any other crazy, odd, different, or seemingly insignificant info they would like to share? What we are trying to find here goes beyond just the symbolism of luck. If it has been hidden for all these years, it might just be something so small you over look it. A nose itch just before you roll, or a tickle in the back of the eye lid... Anything at all really, and that is part of what makes this so difficult and seem to some as impossible and not worth the effort.

Sometimes I have noticed a feeling of dread just before I roll, and usually I fail at rolling the dice afterward. We can try and gather info about "bad luck" too, they are both related good and bad. One might help us identify the other.

**Viktor von Domm**

during my tme at wow i read a whole lot about a problem called account a and account b. you might call it sunny side and dark side if you want. the short version is during your very first moments it is determined to what account your characters will be formed. good loot will always come to the sunny accounts. whereas the crap always was in my rolls...
so luck is for me determined by other factors...outside ones at that...
but i also happen to meet those happy people, the ones with that constant honest happy halo around them. does them being lucky make them happy or being happy all the time makes them lucky? cant help me someone there?

vik