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So last winter I wasted a whole afternoon calculating the optimal Zagstruck Deep Strike placement. Now that assault range is 2D6", I figured I'd revisit ye olde Excell spreadsheet and see how things have changed with very interesting results. I will start off with my premise. 'Ere we go!

How did I calculate a successful Zagstruk Deep Strike Assault given average 7" drift and assault range? The hard part was deciding the limits, so I went with regular triangle formulas. With 16 models, including Zagstruck, I can place the first model at 2" away from the target, create one whole 1" ring of bases around the first, and a partial ring on the opposite side, giving me a 2" limit of 'closeness'. The 'farthest' limit is the 7" Assault range, 1 whole and 1 partial 1" model rings around the first (to geometrically 'stretch' the Stormboyz towards the target), for 9". Then I calculated the angles for successful and unsuccessful scatter, subtracting the unsuccessful 'closeness' angle from the successful 'farthest' angle, and dividing the result by 180*. Then I added the chance of a Successful Assault if there is no drift. The surprising result of this was not the peak at 9" initial placement, but another, HIGHER peak at 2".

Once I thought about this, it does make sense that the successful drift area increases the closer the origin gets to the target. Imagine one whole circle (Scatter Range) overlapping another circle (Assault Range), while subtracting the forbidden Mishap incurring pie slice out of the Drift Circle. Here is my old diagram: http://flic.kr/p/aU3vHV. Apparently there are two peaks, or my measurement of "success", when the origins of the Drift circle and the Assault circle are 2" and 9" apart, with the 2" being an astounding 67% chance to successfully make an assault. Of course the chance to Misphap increases to 33%, but I am sure that the survival rate of Deep Striking Stormboyz that do not get to assault when they arrive is much worse. Here are the rest of the numbers: initial placement from target (IP), chance to assault given scatter (AS), chance to assault given no scatter (ANS), total chance to assault (TA), chance to mishap (M). [Edited to label columns]

IP AS ANS TA M
0 27% 0% 27% 73%
1 30% 0% 30% 70%
2 33% 33% 67% 33%
3 15% 33% 49% 30%
4 12% 33% 46% 27%
5 12% 32% 44% 24%
6 12% 31% 42% 20%
7 13% 28% 41% 16%
8 16% 24% 40% 11%
9 25% 19% 44% 0%
10 23% 14% 36% 0%
11 20% 9% 30% 0%
12 18% 6% 23% 0%
13 15% 3% 18% 0%
14 12% 1% 13% 0%
15 9% 0% 9% 0%
16 0% 0% 0% 0%

This is by no means a complete analysis of the situation, but i do believe that further models will follow this pattern. What do you think?

Two peaks make sense, given that you have two bell curves now, rather than one.

Maybe label your columns?

I've been visualizing the Assault Range as a probability disk like the Scatter Range with the highest density and average at 7". This is not true of the Assault range. The highest probability density would be at 7", but, an enemy unit, say, 7" away can be assaulted on a roll of 7" OR MORE, meaning that the Assault Range probability density is skewed to a higher average value than 7". I'm trying to work out this particular value. I'm coming up with 7.819, but I am not convinced I have included all of the pertinent data. Anyway, the point is that this would mean there is an even higher chance of Zagstruck assaulting than I previously calculated.

Sounds good! Looks like the best move now may be to place as close as possible, figuring that you want to get stuck in, and the Mishap table's not so bad anymore.