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Updated. I think I just had one changed for Larry to duplicate since he doesn't get credit for Q1 and February for Dwarves.

Fantastic compilation ! Keep up the good work.

Went through and cleaned stuff up.



Can someone check these for me?

RULES
Termagant TRUE
Troops FOC
Unit size up to 30
Cost: 4pt PENDING
Default comes with Fleshborer

Upgrades:
Fleet for 1pt per model PENDING

+1 pt Spike Rifles PENDING
+2 pt Spinefists (now Assault x(minimum of 2) Twinlinked) PENDING
+4 pt Devourers PENDING

1 per 10 can take:
+10 pt Strangleweb PENDING
+15 pt Electroshock Spitter (S4 AP6 Template Assault 1) PENDING

+1 Adrenal Glands - Fleet and Furious Charge PENDING
+1 Toxin sacs - Poison (affects cc attacks) PENDING
+2 Toxic grubs - Poison (affects ranged fire) PENDING


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Okay, let's have some fun!

Rumor Mongers with more than 25 rumors (sorted by win rate)
40kradio 38 1 1 40 95.00% Best Pone 32 0 2 34 94.12% Neko 29 1 1 31 93.55% 75hastings69 71 7 1 79 89.87% Beasts of War 24 1 3 28 85.71% Endobai 44 4 5 53 83.02% Whitehat 44 4 5 53 83.02% Harry from Warseer 34 5 2 41 82.93% The Dude 24 4 2 30 80.00% Bramgaunt 20 5 1 26 76.92% Tastytaste 120 25 12 157 76.43% Darnok 48 17 8 73 65.75% Larry Vela 80 84 7 171 46.78% Kirby from 3++ 26 28 3 57 45.61% Natfka 314 418 38 770 40.78% Shaso_iceborn 10 21 1 32 31.25% Stickmonkey 138 270 45 453 30.46% Master Sheol 5 22 3 30 16.67% Maelstrom 4 18 4 26 15.38% Thedarkgeneral 13 69 13 95 13.68% ghost21 8 59 2 69 11.59% Tyren 4 33 2 39 10.26% Lecai 3 27 7 37 8.11% 4chan 2 49 1 52 3.85%

Rumor mongers with 100% win rate (sorted by number of rumors):
Name TRUE FALSE PT/Vague Total Rumors Truthiness? Father Gabe 18 0 0 18 100.00% Ozguard Battlehammer 14 0 0 14 100.00% Chargeanddie 13 0 0 13 100.00% Gas_Monkey82 10 0 0 10 100.00% Rixitotal 10 0 0 10 100.00% Darkwarrior1981 8 0 0 8 100.00% Lorizael 8 0 0 8 100.00% Zhangyi 8 0 0 8 100.00% Kroothawk 4 0 0 4 100.00% Dez on Faeit212 2 0 0 2 100.00% Yakface 2 0 0 2 100.00% Dave from Faeit212 1 0 0 1 100.00% Hydra 1 0 0 1 100.00% Julian from Faeit212 1 0 0 1 100.00% Kaltenberg 1 0 0 1 100.00% kijamon 1 0 0 1 100.00% Lord Dan 1 0 0 1 100.00% Manickze 1 0 0 1 100.00% Meltedwing 1 0 0 1 100.00% Minx 1 0 0 1 100.00% Musical fool 1 0 0 1 100.00% Nickolas94 1 0 0 1 100.00% Silvertongue 1 0 0 1 100.00% sky serpent 1 0 0 1 100.00% Spider-pope 1 0 0 1 100.00% Suntzu 1 0 0 1 100.00%

Rumor mongers with a 0% win rate (sorted by number of rumors):
Name TRUE FALSE PT/Vague Total Rumors Truthiness? Mango Polo 0 14 0 14 0.00% Nopuiidorl 0 10 2 12 0.00% Heresy Online 0 9 1 10 0.00% The Emperor Himself 0 6 0 6 0.00% The Man they Call Jayne 0 6 0 6 0.00% Mannfred 0 4 1 5 0.00% DeathlessDraich 0 3 1 4 0.00% Actuality 0 3 0 3 0.00% Alebelly_cragfist 0 3 0 3 0.00% Denzark 0 1 2 3 0.00% Duskraider 0 3 0 3 0.00% Starchild 0 3 0 3 0.00% Atraphos 0 1 1 2 0.00% GDD 0 2 0 2 0.00% Gloryfan1 0 2 0 2 0.00% Nat Treehouse 0 1 1 2 0.00% Schell 0 1 1 2 0.00% Scoopdeta 0 2 0 2 0.00% snapdragon 0 2 0 2 0.00% Blackraven1987!! 0 1 0 1 0.00% Bob Hunk 0 0 1 1 0.00% Buzz0783 0 1 0 1 0.00% Darth Spader 0 1 0 1 0.00% gcsmith 0 1 0 1 0.00% Grottoknight 0 1 0 1 0.00% Henry South 0 1 0 1 0.00% Inquisitor Engel 0 1 0 1 0.00% madcowcrazy 0 1 0 1 0.00% Mirbeau 0 1 0 1 0.00% Poxy Poxy Predator 0 1 0 1 0.00% pretre 0 1 0 1 0.00% RollanLiCavaliers1214 0 1 0 1 0.00% Ronin 0 1 0 1 0.00% skeith 0 0 1 1 0.00% Stromez Grom 0 1 0 1 0.00% Tallarn 0 1 0 1 0.00% Tauownz 0 1 0 1 0.00%


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Keep in mind that win rates are very directional only. Some people post rumors well in advance and some right before. As well, some people with great win rates have still been fooled on big things and led us astray.

Since this has come up again on Natfka's blog: http://natfka.blogspot.com/2014/01/a-new-direction-for-specialist-games.html

If anyone disputes any of the tracking that has been done, I would be more than happy to review it. Simply let me know what is inaccurate and why and we can discuss it right here.

About those tyranid things, the only true ones are 4pts termagants and 4pts devourer upgrades.
All other point costs are wrong, and the shooting poison/ Electroshock spitter just don't exist

Perfect! I haven't gotten the dex yet, so that helps a lot. I'll update Monday.

The rumours you labeled Already True from ChargeAndDie were made twelve days before the WD leak.

Updated!

ChargeandDie

Dwarf Rumors - Jan 2014
Dwarf Gyrocopter(new models) can make two version: TRUE
1 is bomber(max can take 2)
2 is fight with machine gun (max can take 6)

2: the engineer with big gun TRUE

5: Irondragon(name not confirm) new shooting unit TRUE
like choas dwraf IG 4+armor S4 T4 weapon is flaming attack TRUE

Irondragon other box. TRUE

Wow. He's rocking out (ChargeandDie)

Yeah. Too bad nobody else had a clue. Even people who are normally highly reliable.


---------

All the Dwarf ones on the list. There were some recent ones on Natfka and I'll check on those later.


75hastings69
Harry's Fantasy Recap - July 2012
Dwarves - Rumours of a a big plastic, steam driven, wheeled, orc mashing, monsterous contraption in the image of the ancestors. FALSE
On the big Orc mashing kit, it's actually a large plastic re-imagining of the old "dwarf juggernaut" model... with a smashy fist option (as one of three (iirc) options) FALSE
Dwarves - Plastic slayers FALSE



Alebelly_Cragfist

Dwarf Rumors - June 2013
I heard whispers that Vetock was going to do/has done the Dwarf AB. Not confirmed, but likely. TRUE

Harry's Fantasy Recap - July 2012
Dwarves - Squadrons of Gyros are being considered. FALSE
Dwarves - Latest 'Blackfire Pass' WHFRP supplement specifically mentions 2 new machines available to Engineers - The War Zeppelin and a 'warmachine in the likeness of an ancestor.' Such fluff has to be OK'd by GW HQ, so they're happy for both to be canon, which would suggest that whatever the Dwarfs get, it'll be one if not both of these.... The artwork in numerous recent GW releases picturing both would lend further weight to this rumour. FALSE
Dwarves - Blackfirepass supplement. PENDING
Dwarves - Forgeworld have also confirmed they will be releasing a Zep kit, just not when. PENDING
Dwarves - They are also releasing their own Dwarfs in much the same way as their CDs. PENDING
Dwarves - Concentrating on named character models. FALSE



ChargeandDie

Dwarf Rumors - Jan 2014
Runelord can't add DD TRUE
Dwarf army can add 2 DD every magic phase TRUE
Anvil is Boune spell (can plus the S for dwarf) PARTLY TRUE
Dwarf Gyrocopter(new models) can make two version: TRUE
1 is bomber(max can take 2)
2 is fight with machine gun (max can take 6)

A lot new special character
1: king of Eight Peaks TRUE
2: the engineer with big gun TRUE

All the new models are infantry (with out Gyrocopte):
1: Hammerer TRUE
2: Black smith TRUE
3: Long beard TRUE

4: Slayer PARTLY TRUE
5: Irondragon(name not confirm) new shooting unit TRUE
like choas dwraf IG 4+armor S4 T4 weapon is flaming attack TRUE

(The hammerer black smith and long beard is in same box, TRUE
the slayer other box because no armor, TRUE
Irondragon other box. TRUE
all the new models very cool.)
All the rune are same and warmachine too FALSE
The magic item:
1: The armmr can give the user T10 TRUE

Dwarf Rumors - Jan 2014
Source also says that hammerers can get 2+ AS with a 6+ ward. Probably with a rune. FALSE

Dwarf Rumors - Jan 2014
Tunneler / super cannon kit. I assume it's a greater cannon of sorts. FALSE



Eldargal
Harry's Fantasy Recap
Dwarves - Plastic slayers FALSE



Natfka on Faeit 212
Dwarf Rumors - Jan 2014
via an anonymous source on Faeit 212
I can confirm that Dwarves are indeed due within the next few weeks.
Models Rumours:
Core Troopers won't get a new box. TRUE

Light Armor Infantry Box is Slayers and a second build I couldn't
recognize. They look indeed weird, however the Slayers are more dynamic
than I'd expected them to be. FALSE

Heavy Armor Infantry Box is Hammerers/Ironbreakers dual build. They look
just so much better than their older versions, quite some variation
considering their former lack of such. FALSE

The "War Altar" is a dual build of Throne and Anvil I believe. It wasn't
quite clear, but it seems to be possible to give a "regular" Dwarf King a
toned done version of the Throne. FALSE

The plastic clampack character looks amazing. Simply. Amazing. TOO VAGUE

The Gyrocopter is quite a lot better than the previous one, but not quite
as good as it could have been. But it is a lot bigger, the dwarf isn't
really that much sticking out It blends in nicely with the rest of the army. FALSE

The Tunneling Vehicle looks pretty awkward considering the awesomeness of
the rest of this release. I think the rumoured "big cannon" could be a dual
build with this one, it looks pretty much twice as good as the Tunneling
Machine, especially considering how much potential there was. FALSE

Rules Rumours:
Pretty few that I know about, but here it is:
Playing Style: The playing style will be quite similar to the previous one,
but with a wider variation of possibilities. Ironbreakers will be even
harder to crack open while Hammerers are No-brainers (Dwarves are slow,
but those can hit like a meteorite if they get you!). TOO VAGUE
Cannons are a bit toned down but are still as accurate as always. I think
there's a decent chance of not having a single misfired shot within
multiple games. FALSE



GDD over at Chaos-Dwarfs

Dwarf Rumors - Jan 2014
Hello! I got some potential leaks from the same guy that leaked the DE units. This is regarding the GW vanilla Dwarfs. Sorry if this is a duplicate thread.

QUOTE

OrcCrusher / Tunneler (combo kit) FALSE
Runic Anvil / War Altar (combo box) FALSE
Gyrocopter Squadron Box TRUE
Thunderers / Crossbowmen / Dwarf Warriors Box (10) FALSE
Hammerers / Ironbreaker Box FALSE
Slayers / Brotherhood of Grimmir Box FALSE
Longbeards / Rangers Box FALSE

- There will be more magic activity and movement than before (something everybody expect). FALSE
- The runes system is going to be like now but with some changes in the "laws". Some of them are going to reduce their point cost and there will be less options. Basically are going to be created magic items, some people speak about add runes into already existing magic items from rulebook... with some blacksmith skill... FALSE
- Runelords will have some changes, they will have innate spells (like empire warrior priests). And the anvil will make those spells stronger. FALSE
- Rune combos in warmachines are going to suffer nerfs. There will be a cost point reduction but also the destruction capacity will be decreased (except for the organ cannon, that will become a nightmare...) FALSE
- Points cost reduction in infantry. PARTLY TRUE
- They speak about robot/rock golems similars to Blackrock Deeps in world of warcraft. FALSE



Indrazor

Harry's Fantasy Recap
Dwarves - New special unit ... dwarf contraptions (See below) FALSE
Dwarves - People have heard about those robotic contraptions in WoW. Those nice machines the dwarves there build to help them defend and mine. Picture that and place that on a large base in plastic for Warhammer as the new special unit. FALSE



Larry Vela aka Big Red
Dwarf Rumors - Jan 2014
Dwarfs - February (I'd bet on February 8th) TRUE

The Kits:

Plastic Tunneling Vehicle FALSE
Plastic infantry heavy armor unit kit (dual-build) TRUE
Plastic infantry light armor unit kit (dual-build) FALSE

Plastic War Altar FALSE
Plastic New VERY large gun/cannon FALSE
Plastic Beefier Gyrocopter TRUE

Clampack Lord PARTLY TRUE

Dwarf and Wood Elf - Nov 2013
Dwarfs
February Release DUPLICATE
New Plastic Lord DUPLICATE
New Grudgethrower FALSE
New Trollslayers FALSE
New Hammerers TRUE
New Ironbreakers TRUE
More...
"Big Kit" is the Orc Crusher - a large machine. FALSE



Lord Dan

Harry's Fantasy Recap
Dwarves - Not in 2012 TRUE
Dwarves - Plastic slayers FALSE



Maelström
Dwarf Rumors - Oct 2013
Dwarfs are due in "early 2014"(corroborating other sources saying March 2014) TRUE
Dwarfs news, next army to make their appearance could include:
OrcCrusher / Tunneler (combo kit) FALSE
Runic Anvil / War Altar (combo box) FALSE
Gyrocopter Squadron Box TRUE
Thunderers / Crossbowmen / Dwarf Warriors Box (10) FALSE
Hammerers / Ironbreaker Box FALSE
Matadors??? / Brotherhood of Grimmir Box FALSE
Longbeards / Rangers Box FALSE



Mirbeau

Harry's Fantasy Recap
Dwarves - 2013 has been suggested. FALSE
Dwarves - Huge Catapault. Plastic stone thrower. FALSE



necronspurs2012
Dwarf / Website Rumors - Jan 2014
Dwarfs are set to get a heavy release in the first two weeks of february. The first week is the codex and all redos of metal/finecast kits along with troops units. The second week will bring new kits and the larger ones like warmachines and characters. FALSE

Dwarf slayers with get a new plastic kit and a new siege engine will be released aswell FALSE



Nocculum

Harry's Fantasy Recap
Dwarves - Dwarf Lord on throne will not be special character only. FALSE



Zakusmaximus on Warseer
Warhammer Fantasy Rumors - Sept 2012
1- Monster creature... We know as the mechanical golem thing FALSE
2- Dwarf casters of sorts FALSE
3- They will get ruins that modify current magical items in the Main rule book i.e. adding first strike to a sword that already gives +2 strength etc. FALSE
4- Some sort of Calvary… My fiend mentioned bear, Ram the guy just smiled at him FALSE

I split Necronspurs one up into this:
Dwarf / Website Rumors - Jan 2014
Dwarfs are set to get a heavy release in the first two weeks of february. TRUE
The first week is the codex and all redos of metal/finecast kits along with troops units. FALSE
The second week will bring new kits and the larger ones like warmachines and characters. FALSE

Dwarf slayers with get a new plastic kit FALSE
and a new siege engine will be released aswell FALSE



Automatically Appended Next Post:
Brutal, brutal update, btw. Thank you again, Avian. I really appreciate the help.

No problem.

This release neatly shows what happens when a genuine source is wrong - all the rumour inventors end up being wrong too.

And "kudos" to Naftka for that shamelessly phony one from January. That one reeks from a mile off.

Not having too many hopes for the Wood Elf release in May-ish.

Yeah, a lot of the recent rumors all seem to follow this same kind of pattern. I expect one monger to have it right and they are generally the one that no one else copies. Makes me think that all the IG/Knight rumors are BS.

Well, we shall see in a couple of weeks.

The totals for GDD aren't updated (he has no more pending), BTW.

Updating now.

What are your thoughts on the Knight rumours at this point in time? :p

I thought they were BS, but it looks like I may be eating my words.

Updated the first of the knight rumors. Yes, I am eating crow.

I guess it goes to show that accuracy scores are more reliable than gut feelings. And that was the point of this list, wasn't it?

Indeed. GW seems to be changing direction so fast these days that we simply can't rely on gut feelings (which are ultimately extrapolated from precedents.)

And 40k Radio already has a new serving of "unlikely" rumours for us, too.

Looking through the list, I have a couple of suggestions going forward:

1)
When a rumour has a lot of "well duh!" elements talking about the same thing, they should more often be combined. I see that Larry Vela got 6 TRUE out of essentially saying the new Knight would look like a larger version of the Epic model. That could have been condensed into just one item.
Similarly, rumours that are subjective opinions about a model's appearance shouldn't be a rumour to begin with. Ex: "new Dwarf models look amazing"


2)
When a rumour is that something remains as-is, and it does, that should be listed as ALREADY TRUE and not be worth anything either way. Like how people got a TRUE for saying Spearelves would be Core in the High Elf book.

I can definitely dig that. Hit me up with any suggested updates and I'll pop them through.

These stick out:


Earlybird

High Elf Rumors - April 2013
Core :
Spearmen ALREADY TRUE
Archers ALREADY TRUE
Lothern Sea Guard ALREADY TRUE
Silver Helms TRUE
Tiranoc Chariot FALSE
Shadow Warriors FALSE

Special :
Ellyrian Reavers FALSE
Chrace Chariot ALREADY TRUE
White Lions ALREADY TRUE
Dragon Princes (Horse) ALREADY TRUE
Great Eagles FALSE
Swordmasters ALREADY TRUE
Bolt Thrower FALSE

Rare :
Dragon Princes (monstruous) FALSE
Phoenix Guard FALSE
Phoenix TRUE
Saphery Chariot FALSE



Larry Vela aka Big Red

Knight Loadout - Feb 2014
via Larry Vela over on bols ***
Knight Kit
Model description TRUE
(Wraithknight sized (bulkier). Slightly hunched Imperial appearance. Head in chest. Arm weapons mounted underslung from shoulders like the Reaver. Comes with multiple arm weapons (you can mount 2) )
a) Multi-barreled "gatling" styled weapon FALSE
b) "Grav" styled weapon FALSE
c) "Nova-cannon" styled weapon FALSE
d) Giant close combat weapon TRUE

Updating now. I think that's a good tact to take though.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Put in a definition for Already True.

Natfka turning over a new leaf?

"Rumor Policy
Also there are some new tighter rumor restrictions, as far as what I am going to post. This is based off the impact and negativity that it may inspire. The are some tighter restrictions as well concerning leaks, but I will handle those on my end of the stick.

There has been no GW letter sent here, these changes have been overdue, to improve the site and the time readers spend here. In regards to GW, my email address is always open to them with the same confidence that readers have should there be conflicts. "

Big update:


40kradio
T 4
F 2
PT 1

Natfka
T 5
F 19
PT 1

Vela
T 8
F 17

Lion275
T 3
F 1

Stickmonkey
T 5
F 3

Tim the Thief
F 1
PT 3


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Updated to allow April or March to be accurate for IG.

Lion275 is one of the 40K Radio guys.

Oh really? Dammit. Now I have to combine them.

It looks like the first post has been reset to some earlier version ...